jump to first page online games past through future greg costikyan chief design officer, unplugged...
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Online GamesPast Through Future
Greg CostikyanChief Design Officer, Unplugged [email protected]://www.costik.com
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Online GamesPast Through Future
• Evolution
• Business Models
• Technology
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Me 27 published games MadMaze (1st online game with
1m+ players Games industry analyst &
consultant Founder & Chief Design Officer,
Unplugged Games Write about games industry.
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Evolution It Didn’t Begin with Doom
1969: Plato1978: MUD1984–90s: Era of the COLs1985: Habitat (persistent world)1988: Modem Wars1993: Doom (& DWANGO)1995: Low Latency Start-Ups1996: The End of Connect-Time The Boxopoly Discovers Online Gamesville1997: Ultima Online1999: Aggregators Mutate EverQuest
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Today Three Markets:
Ad-supported mass audienceRetail Purchase, Free Online PlayPersistent World w/ Monthly Charge
New Entrants to Mass Audience Games EA.com, Games.com [Hasbro], PureSkill [Walker Digital/Priceline], –Sony
New Genres for Persistent Worlds Anarchy Online, Sovereign
Online Play now Standard for PC Retail Build Site vs. Work with Aggregator
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Near Term Future New Game Styles
Neverwinter Nights
Proprietary Mass-Audience GamesThe importance of EuchreLicenses; Reiner Knizia
Niche AudiencesSimutronics, Skotos.net, GameGate, Warcry
Indy Games MovementSissyfight, Shockwave.com
The Search for the Middle Ground Online Console Gaming
Chimaera or Reality?
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Business Models Forrester Claims $1b US Market in
1999I Want What They’re Smoking—Maybe $400m Tops
Three Viable Models NowAd Supported Mass Audience (Prize-Based, Classic)Buy at Retail, Play for Free (Quake III)But at Retail + Monthly Fee (EverQuest)
Viable (?) Near-Term ModelsFree Client + Monthly FeePay for Components (Achaea)Shareware Revival
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Technology Broadband
Does Nothing for LatencyUser Customization, Easy Component & Update Distribution The Death of Retail; Revival of the Doom Model
Voice-over-IP Socialization; Key Technology for Consoles?
Streaming Media Completely Irrelevant
Distributed Processing Harnesses Enormous ResourcesSecurity & Charge Model Problems
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This is What Computer Games Were Meant to Be
Games are social activities. The single-user of the PC has
warped them in peculiar ways. As broadband spreads, online will
swallow conventional PC gaming
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The Future is Late, but Not Cancelled
3 years ago, the analysts were wildly optimistic.
We predict things on a linear curve, but growth is parabolic--falling below initially, but then shooting far above.
We’re now poised for takeoff. The future’s so bright….
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Presentation may be downloaded from:
www.costik.com/pres/iirLondon/
Questions & Queries to:Greg Costikyan