jump racing for profit

7/22/2019 Jump Racing for Profit

1/62

JUMP RACING

FOR PROFIT

by Peter May

ISBN: 0-900611-995

Raceform Ltd.,

Compton, Newbry, !er"#$%re, RG&' (NL.

) Peter May *++(

Edited: Graham Wheldon

1


2/62

2


3/62

ACNO-L/GMNT0

Many thanks to Sara o!es" Mike #in$ham" %a&id 'ossiter and'i$hard (o!ther )or their hel*)+l $omments and ideas,

+.lished: 'a$e)orm (td," /om*ton" Ne!.+ry"

Berkshire" 'G20 6N(,

rinted .y: Greenshires rint (td," etterin" Northants,


4/62

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 1

PART I - BACKGROUND DATA +

ro)ita.ility ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 15

+rdle 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 13

/hases ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20

National +nt #lat 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2

S+mmary ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 24

PART II - SELECTION METHODS FOR

JUMP RACING &1

'e$ent #orm and Beaten #a&o+rites,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 23

Weiht nalysis ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1

#ront '+nners ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 9

Sires ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 43

he ime #a$tor ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 51

%e&elo*in ro)ita.le Sele$tion Methods ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53

Conc2d%n3 Remar"# ..................................................... (&

4


5/62

LIST OF TABLES

a.le 1: &erae Startin ri$e o) Winners .y N+m.er

o) '+nners: ll Grades o) National +nt

and #lat 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1

a.le 2: er$entae o) Winnin #a&o+rites .y N+m.er o)

'+nners: ll Grades o) National +nt and

#lat 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 15

a.le : &erae 'et+rn .y Startin ri$e ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 16

a.le 4: Winners to '+nners Strike 'ate and &erae'et+rn )or +rdle 'a$es: e 'ane .y

'a$e /ateory ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 19

a.le 5: nalysis o) /hases .y N+m.er o) '+nners

Within 'a$e /ateory ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21

a.le 6: &erae 'et+rn and Strike 'ate .y %istan$e Beaten

(ast ime: ll Grades o) National +nt 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,, 27

a.le 3: &erae 'et+rn .y %istan$e Beaten and Startin

ri$e (ast ime: No&i$es8 +rdle 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 29

a.le 7: Winners to '+nners Strike 'ate .y Weiht

/arried: ll National +nt andi$a* 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

a.le 9: Winners to '+nners Strike 'ate .y Goin:

ll National +nt andi$a* 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 4

a.le 10: E))e$t o) Weiht /arried .y /o+rse ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 6

a.le 11: nalysis o) #ront '+nners .y Goin ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 42

a.le 12: nalysis o) #ront '+nners .y 'a$e %istan$e ,,,,,,,,,,,, 4

a.le 1: &erae 'et+rn and Strike 'ate )or

Probable Front Runners.y 'a$e$o+rse , ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, , 44a.le 14: &erae 'et+rn and Strike 'ate o) roeny8s

'a$e er)orman$es .y Goin ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 47

a.le 15: &erae 'et+rn and Strike 'ate o) roeny8s

'a$e er)orman$es .y 'a$e %istan$e ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 49

a.le 16: &erae 'et+rn and Strike 'ate o) roeny8s

'a$e er)orman$es .y /o+rse %ire$tion ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 50

a.le 13: /al$+lation o) Goin llo!an$e ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 52

a.le 17: Strike 'ate and &erae 'et+rn )or Good ime

er)ormers on heir Net '+n ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 54

a.le 19: Strike 'ate and &erae 'et+rn )or Good ime

er)ormers on heir Net '+n .y 'a$e Grade ,,,,,,,,,, 56

5


6/62

INTRODUCTION

he $+rsor )li$kered on the $om*+ter s$reen" and the ma$hine

*osed the no! )amiliar ;+estion: a$k!hi$h did not in&ol&e $ard-$o+ntin" and d+rin the *ast t!o!eeks I had entered the res+lts o) one season8s no&i$es8 $hasera$es into the $om*+ter, istori$ally the ma$hine had only e&eranalysed ari$+lt+ral data ?a*art )rom many tho+sands o)Bla$k>a$k sim+lations@ .+t no! it !as )a$ed !ith an entirelydi))erent task,

he data !hi$h had .een etra$ted )rom the )orm.ook reatlysim*li)ied the $om*leity o) the ra$e" !ith only the month" n+m.ero) r+nners in the ra$e" !here the )a&o+rite and se$ond )a&o+rite)inished on their latest starts" the *osition o) the )a&o+rite andse$ond )a&o+rite in this ra$e" and the startin *ri$es o) the t!ohorses entered, hree .ettin &aria.les !ere added a+tomati$ally:ret+rn )rom the )a&o+rite .a$ked to !in" se$ond )a&o+rite to !inand se$ond )a&o+rite ea$h !ay, he aim !as to )ind a$om.ination o) in*+ts !hi$h res+lted in a *ositi&e ret+rn )or one"or all" o) the .ettin &aria.les,

t )irst lan$e the system a**eared &ery *ro)ita.le, It hihlihted!ell o&er one h+ndred .ets *er year and *rod+$ed an a&erae*ro)it o) o&er 0* *er A1 staked, So )+rther testin !as tho+ht+nne$essary, Mistake n+m.er one, Instead" a more im*ortantiss+e needed to .e addressed: ho! m+$h money $o+ld I e*e$t to!in $om*+ter sim+lation !as de&ised to ans!er this ;+estionand it *redi$ted a retirement

6


7/62

date )or me o) 1994, $$ordin to the $om*+ter" .y 1994 I !o+ldha&e amassed s+))i$ient money to allo! me to lea&e !ork and li&e$om)orta.ly )rom the !innins *rod+$ed .y the system, hesim+lation !as .ased on an initial stake o) A10 ?)rom a .ank o)A200@ and !o+ld rise to a )i+re e$eedin A1000 .y 1994, B+teiht years seemed a lon time to .e tied to the o))i$e" I !anted tolea&e earlier, sim*le sol+tion *resented itsel) - in$rease theinitial stake, My normal .et siCe !as .et!een A25 and A50" .+t I!o+ld *la$e A100 on the system .ets, Mistake n+m.er t!o,

I had ne&er anti$i*ated the start o) a ne! ra$in season !ith s+$h

o*timism, )ter !hat seemed an intermina.le !ait" my )irst.ettin o**ort+nity )inally arose on Sat+rday" ++st 2nd atNe!ton ..ot, he horse: arnatak, he *ri$e: 1D7, heres+lt: a $om)orta.le s+$$ess, he $on$l+sion: easy money,

n the )ollo!in h+rsday I *la$ed my se$ond .et" and $olle$ted)rom my se$ond !inner ?*ri$e 5D4@, )antasti$ start" and no! Ireally .elie&ed that I had )o+nd a !innin )orm+la, he third .etlost, So did the )o+rth, nd the )i)th, he sith" (ord (a+ren$e"$r+ised into the lead at the )o+rteenth" .+t )ell at the net" the*en+ltimate )en$e, .&io+sly I had e*e$ted a )e! losers" a ratioo) one !inner to one loser in )a$t, B+t )o+r $onse$+ti&e losers$ame as ;+ite a sho$k" and *+t me into the red, So )or the net.et" St /olme at /artmel" I de$ided to hal&e the stake, Mistaken+m.er three, St /olme !on easily at e&ens,

he St /olme ra$e had ta+ht me a &al+a.le lessonF .a$k to A100*er .et, he net .et !ent do!n and I had lost o&er A20 !ithinthree !eeks" s+.stantially more than I !as +sed to losin, Ithere)ore de$ided to *lay a little more carefully in the )+t+re, )tera reat deal o) )orm analysis I de$ided to inore the netre$ommendation $om*letely, It !on at 7D1, nother hal) stakeon .et 10 !hi$h !on at 11D4, t this *oint I

3


8/62

!as o&er A100 do!n ?a)ter ta@" .+t had I ke*t to the system8s+idelines and ?le&el@ stakin *lan" I !o+ld ha&e .een in *ro)it .yA124,

his *attern $ontin+ed thro+ho+t the remainder o) the season" and.y the )ollo!in s+mmer I had lost money, By sti$kin to ther+les o) the system and stakin *lan" ho!e&er" I !o+ld ha&e madea *ro)it o) almost A2000" a)ter ta" a )a$t !hi$h only ser&ed todee*en my disa**ointment,

I ha&e re$o+nted this se;+en$e o) e&ents to ill+strate ho! sim*le it

is to lose money .a$kin ra$ehorses" e&en !ith a winning)orm+la,he three $r+$ial errors I made are easy to s*ot in retros*e$t,#+rther testin o) the system !o+ld ha&e in$reased my $on)iden$ein its a.ility to ret+rn a *ro)it" and may ha&e hihlihted !ays tored+$e the likelihood o) lon losin r+ns, In$reasin the stake !ay.eyond my normal .et *+t additional strain on the !hole *ro$ess, lon losin r+n at hal) the +s+al stake is easier to handlethan att!i$e the normal stake, he third mistake is +n)ori&a.le, sinmy o!n >+dement to determine !hether I )ollo!ed the system8sad&i$e only ser&es to introd+$e an additional .ias into the*ro$ed+re" e))e$ti&ely makin the system red+ndant,

#or the net si years I manaed to r+n the system *ro*erly" and it*rod+$ed a reasona.le *ro)it ea$h season, o!e&er" the a&eraeret+rn rad+ally de$reased d+e to the .ookmakers8 a!areness o)the !eakness the system !as e*loitin" and .y 1995 it !as no

loner *ro)ita.le, o!e&er" I ha&e re*la$ed the a**roa$h !ithmany other e;+ally *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods !hi$h I detail inthe remainder o) this .ook,

In art I some eneral iss+es $on$ernin the le&el o) *ro)ita.ilityo) National +nt ra$in in Great Britain are o+tlined as.a$kro+nd data, he three main ra$e $ateories: h+rdles ra$es"$hases and National +nt )lat ra$es are eamined

7


9/62

indi&id+ally as !ell as ae and ra$e siCe *ro)iles, Se&eral*ro)ita.le sele$tion methods are *resented in art II, hesea**roa$hes in$l+de methods .ased on .eaten )a&o+rites" r+nninstyles" and the +se o) ra$e times, ther iss+es $o&ered in$l+de thee))e$t o) !eiht $arried in handi$a* ra$es and in)ormation !hi$h$an .e leaned )rom an eamination o) the sire8s re$ord, hese$tion $on$l+des !ith a .rie) s+mmary o) the key *oints o) systemde&elo*ment,

Notat%on

hro+ho+t this tet the )ollo!in notation !ill .e +sed toill+strate ret+rns )rom se&eral .ets: si .ets !ith t!o !inners atD1 and 5D1 !o+ld .e s+mmarised as )ollo!s:

!et# -%n# 456 Retrn78

6 2 ?,@ 0,63

In the a.o&e eam*le" the si .ets *rod+$ed a ret+rn o) A4 to a A1stake ?i,e, HH5-1-1-1-1 4@" there)ore the a&erae ret+rn *er .etis 4 6 ?total ret+rn di&ided .y the n+m.er o) .ets@ 0,63 ?or 63**er A1 staked@, It sho+ld .e noted that a ret+rn o) 0,09 !o+ldsim*ly .e s+))i$ient to $o&er the $ost o) ta ?at 9J@" anythin less!o+ld res+lt in a loss )or o))-$o+rse .ettors, #inally" all .ets

re)erred to thro+ho+t this .ook are !in sinles +nless other!isestated,

9


10/62

PART I

!ACGROUN/ /ATA

10


11/62

BACKGROUND DATA

here are a**roimately "500 ra$es r+n +nder National +ntr+les in Great Britain ea$h season" and this )i+re e$l+des themany h+ndreds o) oint to oint e&ents !hi$h take *la$ethro+ho+t the $o+ntry, ltho+h National +nt ra$in issometimes re)erred to as the winter game" the season no! r+nsthro+ho+t the year, he re;+irement )or the ra$in a+thorities toenerate in$ome at e&ery *ossi.le o**ort+nity" &ia .ettin le&y andadmission $hares" has red+$ed the mid-s+mmer .reak )rom se&en!eeks to >+st )o+r days,

%+rin the 1995D96 season 4 ra$e$o+rses staed National +ntra$in, he )i+re !ill .e red+$ed .y one in 1996D93F Nottinhamra$e$o+rse !ill only .e +sed )or #lat ra$in, S+$h a lare n+m.ero) $o+rses *rod+$es a !ide &ariation in $o+rse $on)i+ration, #oream*le" $onsider the t!o so+th %e&on $o+rses: Ne!ton ..otand Eeter, he )ormer is a )lat" tiht" le)t-handed $o+rse s+itinthe ty*e o) horse !hi$h *re)ers ra$in +* !ith the *a$e, In$ontrast" Eeter ra$e$o+rse" lo$ated on the side o) aldon illo))ers an entirely di))erent $on)i+ration: riht-handed !ith a sti))+*hill r+n-in o) 00 yards, his &ariation in $o+rses adds anotherdimension

11


12/62

to ra$e analysis" re;+irin the *+nter to determine !hether hisDhersele$tion !ill .e s+ited .y the tra$k in addition to the normal$onsiderations o) )orm and )itness et$, his is es*e$iallyim*ortant )or )ront r+nners" a )eat+re !hi$h is dis$+ssed in detailin art II,

orses need to .e at least three years old .e)ore they $an ra$e+nder National +nt r+les !ith the $areer o) a =+m*s ra$ehorsetendin to last loner than that o) its #lat ra$in $o+nter*art,Generally startin in no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es" the National +nthorse $an then *roress thro+h handi$a* h+rdle ra$es to no&i$es8

$hases and )inally handi$a* $hases, Nat+rally" this $areer *athtakes se&eral seasons to $om*lete" and as s+$h the National +nthorse ra$es more o)ten than the a&erae #lat ra$in animal, hisis the main attra$tion )or many =+m*s ra$in s+**orters, nlike#lat ra$in" !here the &ery .est horses seldom ra$e .eyond theirthree-year-old season" the National +nt $ham*ions ret+rn yeara)ter year to test their a.ility aainst the yo+ner enerations,Imaine the 199 in Geore KI and L+een EliCa.eth %iamondStakes at s$ot attra$tin the 3 year old Nash!an" in addition toGenero+s" Salsa.il" ser #riendly and the 199 E*som %er.y!inner" /ommander In /hie), L+ite a ra$e his rel+$tan$e tora$e the .est #lat horses later in li)e is +nderstanda.le sin$e theirst+d &al+e !o+ld ra*idly diminish sho+ld the animal )ail to r+n +*to its .est, When $om*arin the *otential *riCe money !hi$h$o+ld .e !on to st+d &al+es" ra$in a $ham*ion #lat horse .eyondits three-year-old season is &ery m+$h a lon odds on am.le,

o!e&er" this is no $om*ensation )or the #lat ra$in )an,#ort+nately" tho+h" s+$h $ontests o$$+r ;+ite )re;+ently inNational +nt ra$in, ake" )or eam*le" the 1995 in GeoreKI ri*le*rint /hase" r+n at Sando!n d+e to the a.andonment o)em*ton, his ra$e )eat+red the 1995 /heltenham Gold /+*!inner: Master atsF the to* $haser in Ireland: Merry GaleF the!inners o) the in Geore KI ra$e )or the *re&io+s t!o seasons:Barton Bank and lanF

12


13/62

and the )a&o+rite )or the 1996 /heltenham Gold /+*: ne Man,heRacing Postdes$ri.ed the ra$e as +st o.ser&ers o) ra$es,

his tenden$y )or the National +nt horse to ra$e o&er moreseasons and in more ra$es means the ra$e analyst has a reater&ol+me o) )orm !ith !hi$h to !ork, More )orm im*lies that the*+nter sho+ld .e a.le to more a$$+rately e&al+ate the animal8slikes and dislikes" s+$h as o*tim+m oin and ra$e distan$e,/onse;+ently" determinin the horse most likely to !in a ra$e

should.e easier, o!e&er" this does not mean it is easier to makemoney, he .ookmakers are also a.le to assess the $han$es o)ea$h r+nner more *re$isely" and as a res+lt the *ri$es on o))er !illre)le$t these .etter in)ormed assessments, o ill+strate this *oint"$onsider a.le 1, his ta.le sho!s the a&erae *ri$e o) all!inners in National +nt and #lat ra$es )or se&eral seasons$o&erin a**roimately 27"000 ra$es in total:

Tab2e *9 A:era3e 0tart%n3 Pr%ce of -%nner# by Nmber ofRnner#9 A22 Grade# of Nat%ona2 ;nt and F2at Race#

A:era3e 0tart%n3 Pr%ce of -%nner#

Rnner# Nat%ona2 ;nt F2at

2-4 2,05 2,01

5-9 4,4 4,53

10-15 6,51 6,95

16H 7,53 9,7A22 1.*< (.'+

*art )rom to 2-4 r+nner )ields" )or !hi$h the di))eren$e isinsini)i$ant" the a&erae *ri$e o) the !inner is less )or National+nt ra$es than )or #lat ra$es, his re)le$ts the im*ro&ement inthe a$$+ra$y o) ra$e assessments, In other !ords there is less+n$ertainty in National +nt ra$es,

1


14/62

#ort+nately" +n$ertainty still eists" and it is this +n$ertainty !hi$hleads to the o**ort+nity to !in money, In many ames o) $han$e"s+$h as ro+lette" di$e and the National (ottery" the +n$ertainty has.een remo&ed, Whilst the o+t$ome o) any one s*in o) the ro+lette!heel" roll o) the di$e" or dro* o) the lottery .all is +nkno!n.e)ore the e&ent" the *ro.a.ility o) ea$h o+t$ome $an .e $om*+tedea$tly, #or eam*le" !ith an +n.iased di$e" the *ro.a.ility o) asi .ein thro!n on the net roll is 1D6, his *ro.a.ility ismathemati$ally de)ined and *ro&en, With horsera$in" e&en thereasona.ly !ell de)ined National +nt ra$in" this *ro.a.ility

remains inea$t, It is this &ery )a$t !hi$h allo!s +s to *ro)it )romthe s*ort" *ro&idin !e .et sensi.ly,

Some *eo*le )ind the a.o&e res+lt s+r*risin, o! $an theo+t$ome o) National +nt ra$es .e easier to *redi$t than theres+lts o) #lat ra$es" a)ter all the horses ha&e the added *ro.lem o)>+m*in )en$es ne ans!er to this ;+estion $on$erns the relati&ele&els o) di))i$+lty asso$iated !ith the ra$es, In theory" the moredi))i$+lt the s*ort or ame o) skill" the more likely it is to .edominated .y the .est *layers, aken to an etreme" an e&ent thatre;+ires no skill !hatsoe&er and hen$e de*ends *+rely on l+$k"$o+ld .e !on .y any o) the $om*etitors, o!e&er" an e&ent o)immense di))i$+lty !ill only .e !on .y those !ith the hihestle&el o) skill, /hess" )or instan$e" is dominated .y a )e! to**layers, /learly" >+m*in 17 )en$es in a three mile stee*le$hase ismore di))i$+lt than r+nnin o&er a straiht )i&e )+rlons" re;+irin

the r+nners to *ossess an a$$e*ta.le le&el o) s*eed as !ell as>+m*in )l+en$y, /onse;+ently" the more talented *arti$i*antssho+ld dominate, o ill+strate this *oint $onsider a.le 2, hista.le details the *er$entae o) !innin )a&o+rites )or National+nt and #lat ra$in:

14


15/62

Tab2e &9 Percenta3e of -%nn%n3 Fa:or%te# by Nmber of

Rnner#9 A22 Grade# of Nat%ona2 ;nt and F2at Race#

Percenta3e of -%nn%n3 Fa:or%te#

Rnner# Nat%ona2 ;nt F2at

2-4 51,5 54,4

5-9 3,2 6,

10-15 2,2 23,7

16H 25,3 21,1

A22


16/62

*resents the a&erae ret+rn *er A1 staked )or almost 77"000 ra$e*er)orman$es o&er =+m*s:

Tab2e ?' 4*'.=6 =?((? @'.


17/62

.ookmakers and *+nters alike" s+$h a stron relationshi* !o+ldnot .e a**arent,

It is interestin to note )rom a.le that the a&erae ret+rn )or thehiher *ri$ed horses is *oorer than )or the shorter *ri$ed animals,his sim*ly re)le$ts the reater deree o) +nder *ri$in asso$iated!ith these r+nners, In other !ords" in order to a$$+rately mirrorthe tr+e *ro.a.ility o) s+$$ess" most D1 shots sho+ld really .e*ri$ed at 50D1 or reater, s the *ri$e de$reases the dis$re*an$y.et!een the fair *ri$e and startin *ri$e diminishes, here)ore"restri$tin o+r random sele$tion *ro$ess to horses startin at 10D1

or less red+$es the loss to >+st 10* *er A1 staked, Whilst a 25D1shot may look an attra$ti&e .ettin o*tion" these loner *ri$edhorses tend" in eneral" to o))er *oor &al+e $om*ared to the shorter*ri$ed animals,

;rd2e Race#

+rdle ra$es $onstit+te the ma>ority o) all National +nt ra$es"54J in )a$t, Broadly s*eakin" these ra$es are $ontested .y e-#lat ra$e horses" and National +nt .red animals )or !homh+rdlin is merely a ste**in stone to stee*le$hasin, +rdlera$es $an .e $on&eniently $ateorised into )o+r ro+*s: conditionsraces" novices races" other non-handicapra$es and handicaps,/onditions ra$es are non-handi$a* e&ents !hi$h in$l+de the .est

h+rdle ra$es staed ea$h year" s+$h as the /ham*ion +rdle andStayers8 +rdle, In addition to the raded ra$es" $onditions e&entsin$l+de $ontests )or )o+r year old se$ond season h+rdlers as !ell astrials )or the $ham*ionshi* ra$es, No&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es !ere"histori$ally" )or horses !hi$h had not !on a h+rdle ra$e *rior tothe $+rrent season, o!e&er" d+e to the introd+$tion o) s+mmerra$in this $ondition !as re&ised to not ha&in !on a h+rdle ra$e*rior to the 1st May, /onse;+ently" +nder the ne! $onditions"

13


18/62

horses $o+ld ha&e !on a h+rdle ra$e in the *re&io+s season andstill ;+ali)y )or no&i$es8 e&ents in the $+rrent season, he$ateory other non-handi$a* ra$es re)ers to the remainin ra$es )or!hi$h horses are not allotted !eihts .y the British orsera$inBoard8s ?BB@ handi$a**ers, here)ore" this $ateory in$l+des"amonst others" sellin" maiden and $laimin ra$es, andi$a*ra$es are !eiht ad>+sted e&ents, n$e ;+ali)ied )or a handi$a*the BB+stment is to *rod+$e more $om*etiti&e ra$es .y *enalisin the.etter animals, andi$a* h+rdle ra$es ?!hi$h in$l+de no&i$es8handi$a*s" sellin handi$a*s et$,@" and the +se o) !eiht to slo!horses do!n" is dis$+ssed in more detail in art II,

he minim+m distan$e o) a h+rdle ra$e is t!o miles" !ith thelonest ra$e at a little o&er miles )+rlons, lmost 60J o) allh+rdle ra$es are o&er a distan$e o) 16-17 )+rlons !ith the r+nnerse*e$ted to >+m* .et!een 7 and 10 )lihts o) h+rdles, (ess than6J o) ra$es are o&er a distan$e e$eedin miles" re;+irin thehorses to >+m* at least 12 )lihts,

orses aed three years and +*!ards are ;+ali)ied )or h+rdlera$es, o!e&er" 44J o) all r+nners are aed .et!een )i&e andse&en years, his seeminly lo! a&erae ae rane is sim*ly d+e

to a lare *ro*ortion o) h+rdlers *roressin to stee*le$hasina)ter one or t!o seasons o&er the smaller o.sta$les, he olderh+rdlers tend to .e animals !hi$h are not s+ited" either *hysi$allyor mentally" to )en$es, a.le 4 sho!s the distri.+tion o) r+nners.y ae rane )or almost 3"000 ra$es:

17


19/62

Tab2e >9 -%nner# to Rnner# 0tr%"e Rate and A:era3e Retrn for

;rd2e Race#9 A3e Ran3e by Race Cate3ory

A3e Cond. No:. Ot$er ;cap. A22

4yr#.6 ;d2. ;d2. ;d2. ;d2. Race#

W 0 04 96 19 419

R 0 261 1012 90 46

Ret. - -0,41 -0,24 H0,9 -0,6

4 W 13 315 203 420 159

R 145 305 219 443 1216Ret. H0,17 -0,42 -0,47 -0,26 -0,7

5,,3 W 64 1232 24 1574 244

R 44 1797 656 12999 0793

Ret. -0,27 -0,44 -0,41 -0,16 -0,2

7,,10 W 54 02 169 117 166

R 97 449 1971 1110 19972

Ret. -0,2 -0,60 -0,46 -0,2 -0,40

11,,12 W 1 2 1 3 5

R 20 45 93 770 1042

Ret. H0,30 -0,71 H0,16 -0,6 -0,54

1H W 1 2 3 1R 3 11 22 136 216

Ret. -0,6 H0,72 -0,62 -0,32 -0,62

Tota2 W *


20/62

his $om*ares to a strike rate o) 9,7J )or their yo+nero**onents, o!e&er" this *oorer strike rate is not re)le$ted inhiher *ri$es o))ered .y the .ookmakers" hen$e the a.ysmal ret+rn*er .et, S*e$i)i$ally" a loss o) 55* *er A1 staked )or the olderanimals $om*ared to a loss o) 6* *er A1 staked )or the yo+nerr+nners, his ill+strates the deree o) *oor &al+e enerally o))ereda.o+t older horses,

nother interestin )eat+re is the *ro)ita.le ret+rn )rom .a$kin allr+nners aed three years takin *art in handi$a* h+rdle ra$es, hea&erae ret+rn o) 9* *er A1 staked re)le$ts ho! m+$h this ty*e o)

r+nner is +nder rated" .y the *+nters and .ookmakers" res+ltin inodds !hi$h are" in )a$t" enero+s, hree-year-old h+rdlers o)ten!ill .e $onsidered too !eak and ine*erien$ed $om*ared !iththeir older ri&als, /learly" this >+dement is mis*la$ed" !hi$h isan error !e $an e*loit,

With an a&erae loss o) 46* *er A1 staked" no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es!o+ld seem to o))er the *oorest .ettin medi+m, o!e&er" thisloss $an .e e*lained" in *art" .y a hiher than a&erae n+m.er o)r+nners *er ra$e" and more hih *ri$ed r+nners than other ty*es o)h+rdle ra$e, In )a$t" no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es are" in eneral" easier toassess !ith a !inners to r+nners strike rate )or )a&o+rites o) 44Jo&er the *ast )o+r seasons" $om*ared to an a&erae o) 3J )or allh+rdle ra$es )or the same *eriod, In terms o) *ro)it" .a$kin allno&i$es8 h+rdle ra$e )a&o+rites sin$e the 1992D9 season !o+ldha&e res+lted in a loss o) only 4* *er A1 staked,

C$a#e#

ltho+h h+rdle ra$in $an .e e$itin at times" it isstee*le$hasin !hi$h +s+ally *ro&ides the s*e$ta$le )or National+nt ra$in, I) yo+ are +ns+re a.o+t this statement"

20


21/62

$ast yo+r tho+hts .a$k to the $losin staes o) the 1995 M+mmMellin /hase at intree, he three to* 2 mile $hasers" Kikin#lashi*" %ee* Sensation and Martha8s Son" a**roa$hed the )inal)en$e at )+ll ra$in s*eed and >+m*ed it in +nison .e)ore .attlino+t the )inish !ith >+st a lenth se*aratin the three at the line,hat8s realhorsera$in,

/hases make +* a**roimately 42J o) all National +nt ra$esand rane in distan$e )rom 2 miles" re;+irin the horses to *ossesss*eed and >+m*in )l+en$y" to the 4 miles o) the Grand National!here the em*hasis is on stamina,

o )a$ilitate meanin)+l analyses" $hases ha&e .een .roken do!ninto )i&e $ateories, he )irst )o+r: conditions races" novicesraces" other non-handicapra$es and handicaps" are the same as)or h+rdle ra$es !ith the same de)initions, he )i)th $ateory ishunter $hases, hese e&ents are )or horses !hi$h ha&e .een$lassi)ied as h+nters d+rin the h+ntin season and are restri$ted toamate+r riders,

n initial analysis o) $hases .y ra$e $ateory and n+m.er o)r+nners re&eals se&eral interestin trends, /onsider a.le 5:

Tab2e 19 Ana2y#%# of C$a#e# by Nmber of Rnner#

-%t$%n Race Cate3ory

Nmber of Cond. No:. Ot$er ;cap. ;nter A22

Rnner# C$a#e C$a#e C$a#e C$a#e C$a#e Race#

2,,4 W 51 269 1 526 6 795

R 17 994 47 179 129 243

Ret. -0,03 -0,25 -0,15 -0,09 -0,0 -0,15

5,,3 W 54 661 45 124 1 216

R 12 4000 236 335 711 12334

Ret. -0,2 -0,23 -0,29 -0,16 -0,2 -0,21

7,,12 W 16 627 57 772 226 1710

R 156 6007 541 704 2157 13163

Ret. -0,6 -0,7 -0,25 -0,22 -0,42 -0,0

21


22/62

1,,16 W 4 122 19 144 96 75

R 60 133 237 2016 143 547

Ret. -0,60 -0,46 -0,50 -0,1 -0,43 -0,41

13H W 0 12 9 41 20 72

R 0 215 130 71 402 1600

Ret. - -0,7 -0,54 -0,2 -0,64 -0,4

Tota2 W *&1 *(+& *>> &='* >=>? >'&&(

Ret. @'.&1 @'.< @'.&=

Windi$ates the n+m.er o) !inners"Rthe n+m.er o) r+nners and Retthe a&erae

ret+rn *er A1 staked,

/learly" as the n+m.er o) r+nners *er ra$e in$reases so does the.ookmakers8 o&er-ro+nd, his is a trend !hi$h is $ontin+edthro+h .oth $odes o) ra$in" #lat and =+m*s" and as mentioned inthe *re&io+s se$tion" it a$$o+nts )or the *oor ret+rn )or no&i$es8h+rdle ra$es, +nter $hases seem to o))er a &ery *oor a&erae rateo) ret+rn" !ith a loss o) 4* *er A1 staked" !hi$h is" in )a$t" !orsethan the National (ottery !hen the e))e$t o) ta is added,n+s+ally" this *oor ret+rn is maintained in the &ery small )ields,#rom a.le 5 it $an .e seen that in )ields o) 2-4 r+nners thea&erae loss )or handi$a* $hases is 9* *er A1 staked" !hereas )orh+nter $hases the )i+re is 0* *er A1" a h+e di))eren$e,

reason )or this *oor rate o) ret+rn $an .e )o+nd .y eaminin the

*ri$e *ro)ile o) the h+nter $hase r+nners, hese ra$es +s+ally)eat+re a lare *ro*ortion o) horses !ith &ery little $han$e o)!innin" *ro.a.ilities !hi$h are not a$$+rately re)le$ted .y theodds on o))er ?i,e, lon shots still +nder *ri$ed" ill+strated .ya.le @, /onse;+ently" the .ookmakers8 o&er-ro+nd is in$reased,o!e&er" the h+nter $hase $ateory has the hihest *ro*ortion o)!innin )a&o+rites" at a little o&er 47J" $om*ared to 46J )orno&i$es8 $hases and )i+res in the mid 08s )or the other$ateories, In )a$t" sim*ly .a$kin all h+nter $hase )a&o+rites o&erthe *ast

22


23/62

)e! seasons !o+ld ha&e ret+rned a *ro)it o) 3* *er A1 staked".e)ore ta, ll other ra$e ty*es *rod+$ed a loss o) .et!een * and2* *er A1 staked,

he a&erae ae rane o) a $haser is 7 to 10 years old, s !iththe h+rdlers" the older $hasers !in less )re;+ently than the yo+nerhorses and this *oor strike rate is not re)le$ted in hiher *ri$eso))ered .y the .ookmakers, /hasers aed +* to 10 years old ha&ea !inners to r+nners strike rate o) 14J and an a&erae loss o) 25**er A1 staked, In $om*arison" the strike rate )or older horses" 11years and +*!ards" is only 7J and the a&erae ret+rn is a loss o)

44* *er A1 staked, /learly" the ae o) the animal is a )a$tor !hi$hsho+ld .e $are)+lly $onsidered .e)ore *la$in a .et,

Nat%ona2 ;nt F2at Race#

National +nt #lat ra$es are desined to i&e National +nt .redhorses e*erien$e o) ra$in .e)ore they attem*t h+rdles or )en$es,hese ra$es attra$t a hih .ookmakers8 o&er-ro+nd !ith a randomsele$tion *rod+$in an a&erae loss o) 43* *er A1 staked o&er the*ast )e! seasons, his le&el o) +nder *ri$in is d+e in *art to the)a$t that a lare *ro*ortion o) the r+nners are +nkno!n ;+antities"and the .ookmakers are not *re*ared to take any $han$es a.o+tthis ty*e o) horse, o ill+strate this *oint" .y sele$tin horses atrandom in the 11D2-10D1 *ri$e .and )or all ty*e o) National +nt

ra$e !o+ld ret+rn a loss o) 15* *er A1 staked, #or National +nt#lat ra$es this loss is an in$redi.le 0* *er A1 staked,

s a res+lt o) s+$h *rohi.iti&e *ri$in" identi)yin *ro)ita.le.ettin strateies )or National +nt #lat ra$es is an etremelydi))i$+lt task,

2


24/62

0mmary

In this se$tion I ha&e tried to sho! the deree to !hi$h the oddsare sta$ked in )a&o+r o) the .ookmakers" and ho! the a&erae rateo) ret+rn &aries de*endin on the n+m.er o) r+nners in the ra$e"the startin *ri$e" and ae o) the horse, Whilst the startin *ri$e*ro&ides a ood +ide to the $han$e o) s+$$ess there are instan$es!here it se&erely +nder estimates the tr+e odds o) r+nners" mostnota.ly the older horses, We ha&e also seen one $ase" three yearold horses r+nnin in handi$a* h+rdle ra$es" !here the a&eraestartin *ri$e e$eeds a )air *ri$e *ro&idin a *ro)ita.le .ettin

o**ort+nity,

In the )ollo!in se$tion" !e $on$entrate on de&elo*in sele$tionmethods !hi$h sho+ld res+lt in a *ositi&e ret+rn, We ha&e alreadyseen that on a&erae the .ookmaker .ets to an o&er-ro+nd o) J*er ra$e" and has at hisDher dis*osal all the in)ormation a&aila.leto the eneral *+.li$, here)ore" +sin $on&entional methods )orsele$tin horses ?i,e, $he$kin the s+ita.ility o) the oin" ra$edistan$e et$,@ is +nlikely to ret+rn a *ro)it, #or the o))-$o+rse*+nter to make a lon term *ro)it .y e&al+atin ra$es in thetraditional !ay" either the .ookmaker needs to make an a**allinmistake or the *+nter needs to .e e$e*tionally talented atanalysin ra$es, o *+t the le&el o) skill re;+ired into *ers*e$ti&e"the to* *ro)essional am.lers only make 10* to 15* *er A1 staked,/onse;+ently" the .est ro+te to a *ro)ita.le ret+rn is to ado*t an+n$on&entional a**roa$h to ra$ehorse sele$tion and $onsiderin)ormation !hi$h is o)ten o&erlooked .y the .ookmaker" andother *+nters, his ty*e o) a**roa$h to .ettin is eamined inart II,

24


25/62

PART II

0LCTION MT;O/0 FOR

JUMP RACING

25


26/62

SELECTION METHODS FOR

JUMP RACING

In this se$tion !e eamine &ario+s )a$ets o) National +nt ra$inand de&elo* se&eral *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods, he se$tionstarts !ith an analysis o) re$ent )orm and the im*ortan$e o) theanimal8s startin *ri$e on its *re&io+s ra$e,

Recent Form and !eaten Fa:or%te#

'e$ent )orm is treated as one o) the most im*ortant as*e$ts o) ra$e

analysis, In almost e&ery .ook aimed at *ro&idin the reader !ithmethods )or *i$kin !inners there !ill .e a se$tion relatin tore$ent )orm, s+ally the a+thor !ill s+est that the *+nterens+res that hisDher sele$tion has


27/62

Tab2e (9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate by /%#tance !eaten

La#t T%me9 A22 Grade# of Nat%ona2 ;nt Race#

/%#tance

!eaten A:era3e

La#t T%me -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*

0 2030 ?25,5@ 7121 -0,12

0,01-2,0 515 ?20,6@ 2495 -0,16

2,01-5,0 673 ?17,3@ 633 -0,15

5,01-10,0 756 ?16,2@ 5276 -0,16

10,01-20,0 1140 ?12,2@ 920 -0,25

20,01H 1626 ?6,6@ 24599 -0,41

Not /om*lete 321 ?6,0@ 11931 -0,46

nra$edO

1755 ?7,4@ 22207 -0,3

Tota2 +>?' 4*'.=6 =?((? @'.


28/62

Tab2e ?9 A:era3e Retrn by /%#tance !eaten and 0tart%n3 Pr%ce

La#t T%me9 No:%ce#B ;rd2e Race#

/%#tance

0tart%n3 Pr%ce La#t T%me

!eaten Odd# :en#@ =17>'@ **7&@ A22

La#t T%me On &7* 17* *'7* **7* Pr%ce#

0 W 122 125 132 73 9 545

R 63 422 625 53 254 2025

Ret. -0,17 -0,01 -0,09 -0,20 -0,27 -0,1

0,01-2,0 W 16 44 5 23 21 161

R 56 121 225 196 135 33

Ret. -0,19 H0, -0,1 -0,5 -0,49 -0,25

2,01-5,0 W 10 6 53 5 43 20

R 5 120 27 255 10 100

Ret. H0,0 -0,09 -0,25 -0,17 -0,29 -0,22

5,01-10,0 W 21 76 34 56 230

R 55 11 90 94 54 1476

Ret. H0,1 H0,5 -0,04 -0,20 -0,43 -0,20

10,01H W 14 56 145 131 291 633

R 31 235 1127 1719 3925 11217

Ret. -0,4 -0,0 -0,0 -0,5 -0,64 -0,54

Not W 7 12 2 6 9 123

/om*lete R 27 34 263 67 2571 17

Ret -0,27 -0,6 -0,49 -0,04 -0,30 -0,60

Tota2 W *+* (

Windi$ates the n+m.er o) !inners"Rthe n+m.er o) r+nners and Retthe a&erae

ret+rn *er A1 staked,

distan$e .eaten is i&en in horse lenths,

Se&eral interestin )eat+res are ehi.ited in a.le 3, #irstly" thea&erae ret+rn remains reasona.ly $onstant )or horses .eaten +* to10 lenths .+t dro*s markedly to a loss o) 54* *er A1 staked )orhorses .eaten o&er 10 lenths on their *re&io+s r+n" and to a losso) 60* )or those !hi$h )ailed to $om*lete last time, Se$ondly" )orr+nners !hi$h started at odds aainst on their *re&io+s start thereis a steady de$line in the a&erae ret+rn as this *ri$e in$reases,nd )or animals !hi$h started at o&er 10D1 most re$ently thea&erae ret+rn

27


29/62

dro*s to a &ery *oor loss o) 6* *er A1 staked, hese are $learlyhorses to a&oid,

o!e&er" *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods are also a**earin" nota.lyhorses .eaten on their last start .y less than 10 lenths !hilststartin at 2D1 or less, #rom a.le 3" !e $an see that thisa**roa$h !o+ld ha&e res+lted in 160 !inners )rom 500 ra$es" astrike rate o) almost 2J !ith a ret+rn o) 1* *er A1 staked,

In art I !e )o+nd that the hiher *ri$ed horses enerally o))er*oorer &al+e, 'emo&in the horses !hi$h started at 10D1 or hiher

and a**lyin the restri$tions o+tlined a.o&e de$reases the n+m.ero) .ets .y 30 to 40 at the e*ense o) only one !inner, he strikerate im*ro&es to 3J !ith a ret+rn o) 27* *er A1 staked,here)ore"

consider backing any horse starting at less than!" in a novices hurdle race which# on its lateststart# was beaten no more than ! lengths at astarting price of $" or less% e&pected profit $'p per( staked.

his sele$tion method in&ol&es a )air amo+nt o) sear$hin thro+h*ast histories" .+t )ort+nately it $an .e sim*li)ied .y restri$tin thehorses elii.le )or sele$tion to .eaten )a&o+rites, Both o) the trade

*a*ers indi$ate .eaten )a&o+rites in the ra$e $ard red+$in theamo+nt o) sear$hin re;+ired, here)ore"

consider backing any horse starting at less than!" in a novices hurdle race which# on its lateststart# was a beaten favourite finishing within !lengths of the winner% e&pected profit $)p per (staked.

29


30/62

here is only a sliht di))eren$e in the e*e$ted ret+rn and n+m.ero) .ets )or these t!o sele$tion methods" and as mentioned earlierthe se$ond a**roa$h sho+ld .e easier to im*lement,

-e%3$t Ana2y#%#

In horsera$in" =+m*s or #lat" the standard meas+re o) a.ility isthe o))i$ial ratin" also kno!n as the handi$a* mark, ltimately

all horses re$ei&e a handi$a* mark assined .y a team o)handi$a**ers em*loyed .y the BB" !hether they r+n in handi$a*ra$es or not, he ratin is a $on&enient !ay o) e*ressin thes+*eriority o) one animal relati&e to another, #or eam*le" a horserated 75 !o+ld .e $onsidered to *ossess more a.ility than ananimal rated 30, #or handi$a* ra$es" this ratin determines theamo+nt o) !eiht ea$h horse !ill $arry, In the *re&io+s eam*le"the horse rated 75 !o+ld $arry 15 l.s, more !eiht than the horserated 30, It sho+ld .e noted that the handi$a* marks do notdetermine the amounto) !eiht to .e $arried" >+st the !eiht onehorse !ill $arry relati&e to another, /onse;+ently" it !o+ld .e*ossi.le )or these t!o horses to .e set to $arry 11-04 ?11 stone 4l.s,@ and 10-0 in one ra$e" and 11-10 and 10-09 in another ra$eon the same day, he a.sol+te !eiht $arried is determined .y theBB ratin o) the hihest rated horse in the ra$e, In these t!ohy*otheti$al ra$es" the to* rated horse in the )irst ra$e !o+ld .e

rated hiher than the to* rated horse in the se$ond ra$e,

his is an im*ortant distin$tion to make" and it is im*erati&e toremem.er that a horse $arryin 12-0" )or instan$e" is notne$essarily .adly handi$a**ed, (ike!ise" an animal set to $arry10-0 is not +aranteed to .e !ell handi$a**ed, he !eiht $arried.y a horse sim*ly re)le$ts the strenth o) the

0


31/62

ra$e, =+st .e$a+se a handi$a**er is set to $arry 12-0 is no reasonto ass+me it $annot !in,

here are o$$asions !hen r+nners in handi$a*s $arry more !eihtthan their o))i$ial ratin re;+ires, his $an ha**en !hen theratin re;+ires the animal to $arry a !eiht !hi$h is .elo! theminim+m set )or the ra$e, he minim+m !eiht is normally 10-0altho+h it $an .e in$reased to 10-04 or 10-03 )or $ertain ra$es,In s+$h $ases horses !hi$h are out of the handicap e))e$ti&ely$arry o&er!eiht, #or eam*le" i) the to* !eiht in a ra$e !as setto $arry 11-10 and !as rated 120" a horse rated 70 sho+ld only

$arry 7-07 .+t !o+ld ha&e to $arry the minim+m !eiht" 10-0" ano&er!eiht o) 20 l.s, hese horses are enerally $onsidered to .e.adly handi$a**ed,

))i$ial ratins ha&e most e))e$t in handi$a* ra$es, he aim o)handi$a*s is to i&e all horses the same $han$e o) !innin .y*enalisin the .etter animals .y i&in them more !eiht to $arry,/onse;+ently" many am.lers do not )ind handi$a* ra$es a &ia.le.ettin medi+m, #or instan$e" in the .ook *raddocks +omplete,uide to orse Race election and *etting ?(onman" 197@"eter Braddo$k re$ommends that handi$a*s /must not beconsidered for serious purposes of selection0. his is a ratheretreme &ie!" altho+h it did dis$o+rae me )rom .ettin inhandi$a*s )or many years,

o!e&er" in*etting For 1 2iving ?es$+l+s ress" 1992@" Ni$k

Mordin s+ests that !eiht $arried sho+ld .e inored !henassessin )orm and *ro&ides e&iden$e )rom this" and the *re&io+s$ent+ry" to s+**ort the $laim, t )irst I dismissed this idea!itho+t a se$ond tho+ht" ho!e&er" I am .einnin to .elie&e thatit may ha&e some &alidity, We sho+ld .e a.le to test this theory+sin inde*endent handi$a* ratins as *ro&ided .y oranisationss+$h as ime)orm and 'a$e)orm, I) Mordin8s $ontention is tr+e"there sho+ld .e no di))eren$e .et!een the !inners to r+nners strikerate )or the to* rated

1


32/62

sele$tions a)ter ad>+stin )or !eiht ?the +s+al a**roa$h@ and )orthe to* rated sele$tions !itho+t any !eiht ad>+stment, nalysinthe ratins )rom an inde*endent so+r$e )or almost 700 handi$a*ra$es *rod+$ed the )ollo!in res+lts:

Strike Rate For Weiht d>+sted: 24J

To Rate! Hor"e Weiht Inored: 2J

he minimal di))eren$e .et!een the t!o *er$entaes s+**orts thehy*othesis that !eiht $arried has no e))e$t, It also ;+estions the&al+e o) hih *ri$ed ratins ser&i$es" es*e$ially sin$e the to*

!eiht in =+m*s handi$a* ra$es reardless o) its *osition in theratins" !ins on a&erae 20J o) ra$es,

s a )+rther $he$k !e $an look at the !inners to r+nners strike rate)or all National +nt handi$a* r+nners .y !eiht $arried, ain"i) !eiht has a sini)i$ant e))e$t" and the handi$a**ers arereasona.ly a$$+rate in their assessments" this *ro)ile sho+ld .e+ni)orm o&er the di))erent !eiht $ateories, n the other hand" i)!eiht has only a minimal e))e$t" the .etter horses" $arryin hiher!eihts" sho+ld !in more o)ten, /onsider a.le 7 !hi$hill+strates the !inners to r+nners strike rate )or almost 6"000handi$a* ra$es:

Tab2e =9 -%nner# to Rnner# 0tr%"e Rate by -e%3$t Carr%ed9

A22 Nat%ona2 ;nt ;and%cap Race#

-e%3$t

Carr%ed

-%nner# 456 Rnner#

12-01H 23 ?7,6@ 30

11-07,,12,00 1540 ?16,3@ 9217

11-00,,11-03 1246 ?1,6@ 9171

10-07,,10-1 1237 ?12,1@ 10594

10-00,,10-03 1526 ?9,1@ 16311

,,9-1 276 ?6,6@ 406

A22 -e%3$t# 1+'< 4**.=6 1''='

!eiht $arried in$l+des $laims .y >o$keys and o&er!eiht,

2


33/62

/learly" the horses $arryin most !eiht !in more o)ten !hi$hindi$ates that the handi$a**in *ro$ess is not res+ltin in total+ni)ormity, So *erha*s Ni$k Mordin is $orre$t" and )or National+nt ra$es at least" !e sho+ld not *la$e too m+$h em*hasis on thee))e$t o) the amo+nt o) !eiht $arried !hen assessin the $han$eso) horses, nd to .ase the assessment o) the r+nners8 a.ilities onthe o))i$ial ratins .e)ore ad>+stment )or !eiht,

nother lon held .elie) is that horses )ind it harder to $arry!eiht on so)t ro+nd, Braddo$k $omments:


34/62

he )irst )eat+re to note reardin a.le 9 is that all elements inthe )irst3ifference$ol+mn are *ositi&e, his ill+strates the hiherthan a&erae strike rate )or to* !eihts $om*ared to other r+nners,he total )i+re o) 261 im*lies that there !ere 261 more !innersthan !o+ld ha&e .een e*e$ted i) the horses had .een sele$ted atrandom )rom all !eiht .ands, ltho+h the )i+res in thedi))eren$e $ol+mn tend to de$rease to!ards the softer oin$ateories" this is d+e to the de$line in the n+m.er o) so)tDhea&yro+nd ra$es analysed, In )a$t" !hen this e))e$t is remo&ed the*attern .e$omes ;+ite +ni)orm,

he 1d4usted 3ifference $ol+mn e*resses the di))eren$e as a*er$entae o) the e*e$ted n+m.er o) !inners, In other !ords" the)i+res indi$ate the *er$entae .y !hi$h the a$t+al n+m.er o)!inners e$eed the e*e$ted n+m.er, #or instan$e" )or the hea&yoin $ateory there !ere 29,J more !inners than e*e$ted,he hih )i+re )or hard oin is not *arti$+larly relia.le d+e tothe small sam*le siCe" ho!e&er" the remainin )i+res arereasona.ly +ni)orm, It $o+ld .e ar+ed that the )irm ro+nd )i+reis hih" s+**ortin the $ase that horses $arry !eiht .etter on)irmer ro+nd" tho+h the ood to so)t oin *er$entae" at5,J" may also .e $onsidered hih, /onse;+ently" there is noe&iden$e )rom the a.o&e data to $on$l+de that the to* !eihtsen>oy a reater ad&antae o&er the other r+nners !hen the oin is)irm" and neither are they reatly in$on&enien$ed !hen the oint+rns so)t,

he )inal )a$tor to $onsider +nder the headin o) Weight 1nalysis$on$erns the e))e$t o) $o+rse $on)i+rations on the a.ility o) theanimal to $arry !eiht, It has .een s+ested that tiht t+rnin$o+rses hel* an animal to $arry reater !eihts sin$e the s*eed o)the r+nners on these ty*es o) tra$k !ill .e lo!er" on a&erae" !hen$om*ared to the" so $alled" allo*in tra$ks, o!e&er">+sti)i$ation o) this ass+m*tion

4


35/62

re;+ires a$$+rate de)initions o) the terms tight track andgalloping track, Ideally" $o+rses !o+ld .e meas+red to areasona.le deree o) *re$ision" and data relatin to the shar*nesso) the .ends re$orded, In the a.sen$e o) these )i+res" !e $o+ld+se the de)initions *resented in the o))i$ial )orm.ook" or those*ro&ided .y ime)orm to $ateorise the $o+rses, o!e&er" I amnot totally ha**y !ith these des$ri*tions" !hi$h are made" I.elie&e" sim*ly .y o.ser&ation, n alternati&e a**roa$h is tosim*ly analyse all $o+rses indi&id+ally and .ase any ded+$tions onthese data, he )ollo!in ta.le lists all National +nt $o+rsestoether !ith the !inners to r+nners strike rate" the a&erae ret+rn

*er A1 staked toether !ith the *er$entae di))eren$e .et!een then+m.er o) !inners re$orded and the n+m.er o) !inners e*e$ted)or all handi$a* r+nners !hi$h $arried 11-10 or more:

Tab2e *'9 ffect of -e%3$t Carr%ed by Cor#e

A:era3e

Cor#e -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78* 5 /%ff.

Wor$ester 53 ?2,7@ 29 H0,10 39,1

ere)ord 4 ?2,1@ 143 H0,01 35,9

Windsor 19 ?20,0@ 95 H0,09 34,6

Ne!$astle 23 ?23,@ 99 -0,06 34,0

erth 0 ?27,0@ 103 H0,13 65,1

Eeter 3 ?21,5@ 132 -0,12 56,6

elso 25 ?2,6@ 106 H0,12 54,9

%on$aster 14 ?17,9@ 34 -0,01 51,5

#ont!ell 41 ?21,3@ 179 -0,14 47,1

o!$ester 4 ?20,9@ 16 -0,0 45,9/he*sto! 29 ?22,@ 10 -0,10 4,7

Sede)ield 4 ?19,9@ 216 -0,13 4,

(+dlo! 2 ?16,7@ 13 -0,6 42,9

(in)ield 19 ?22,6@ 74 -0,25 40,0

Banor 27 ?20,9@ 14 -0,22 9,9

Nottinham 17 ?16,5@ 109 -0,0 6,9

/arlisle 21 ?20,2@ 104 -0,25 5,0

yr 2 ?21,@ 150 -0,10 4,3

Win$anton 26 ?19,7@ 11 -0,16 4,5

l+m*ton 4 ?22,3@ 150 -0,26 ,5

Market 'asen 1 ?13,5@ 133 -0,10 2,

5


36/62

s$ot 2 ?17,1@ 123 -0,14 1,

So+th!ell 26 ?20,7@ 125 -0,29 0,9

Wether.y 6 ?20,2@ 137 -0,13 0,

ttoeter 44 ?13,3@ 249 -0,20 29,6

/artmel 9 ?20,5@ 44 -0,02 2,

/atteri$k 14 ?14,6@ 96 H0,01 21,4

Strat)ord 0 ?16,9@ 133 -0,16 21,

M+ssel.+rh 14 ?15,4@ 91 -0,26 20,7

+ntindon 2 ?13,3@ 171 -0,29 20,1

aydo$k 2 ?21,@ 107 -0,0 15,9

Ne!ton ..ot 49 ?13,9@ 234 -0,7 14,5

Ne!.+ry 22 ?16,9@ 10 -0,2 6,3

em*ton 1 ?14,9@ 73 -0,27 5,3

War!i$k 17 ?14,4@ 125 -0,12 5,0eham 13 ?1,5@ 126 -0,52 ,9

intree 7 ?12,1@ 66 -0,51 1,5

/heltenham 24 ?1,0@ 175 -0,40 0,

#akenham 11 ?12,2@ 90 -0,5 0,0

#olkestone 1 ?14,4@ 90 -0,43 -4,7

a+nton 14 ?9,7@ 14 -0,29 -11,1

Sando!n 17 ?14,2@ 123 -0,46 -12,2

(ei$ester 7 ?10,5@ 36 -0,47 -22,9

#or horses !hi$h $arried 11-10 or more in handi$a*s,

a.le 10 is sorted .y thepercentage difference$ol+mn" there)ore"the )irst named $o+rses are .est )or to* !eihts, nlike a.le 9"there are se&eral neati&e )i+res in this $ol+mn, hese indi$atethe $o+rses !here $arryin a lare !eiht is a$t+ally detrimental tothe $han$es o) the horse !innin ?i,e, )e!er horses !on thane*e$ted@, o em*hasise this *oint )+rther" the a&erae ret+rn$ol+mn sho!s a h+e loss o) 47* *er A1 staked )or all .ets onhorses $arryin 11-10 or more in handi$a*s at (ei$ester, his$om*ares to a *ro)it o) 13* *er A1 staked at erth,

a.le 10 is only a +ide to the likely e))e$t o) ra$e$o+rse$on)i+ration on the $han$es o) the to* !eihts, here are se&eralother )a$tors !hi$h ha&e not .een $onsidered and !hi$h $o+ld$ontri.+te to the order o) the $o+rses i&en a.o&e, #or instan$e"there may .e a di))eren$e in the a&erae n+m.er o) r+nners *erra$e .et!een the tra$ks !hi$h !o+ld

6


37/62

introd+$e a sliht .ias, B+t more im*ortantly" ra$in may" ineneral" .e less $om*etiti&e at some $o+rses !ith )e!er horses$arryin lare !eihts *er ra$e ?i,e, .ier a*s" in *o+nds".et!een the to* !eiht and net hihest !eihted horse@,o!e&er" i) !e are *re*ared to allo! )or a small deree o) error"in !hat is a &ery +n$ertain domain" the res+lts *resented in a.le10 sho+ld .e +se)+l !hen e&al+atin the $han$es o) handi$a**ers,

So )ar !e ha&e identi)ied a theory reardin !eiht $arryin !hi$hr+ns $o+nter to $on&entional loi$" and ha&e ill+strated that it*ossesses a deree o) merit, /onse;+ently" !e sho+ld .e a.le to

t+rn this theory into a *ro)ita.le .ettin system, he key )a$tors!e need to $onsider are !eiht $arried and ra$e$o+rse$on)i+ration" the oin does not a**ear to ha&e a sini)i$ante))e$t,

sin a.le 10 it is *ossi.le to identi)y the most s+$$ess)+l tra$ks)or to* !eihts, Settin apercentage differencethreshold at 30Jisolates )o+r $o+rses !hi$h are $onsidered sini)i$antly .etter )orto* !eihts, hese $o+rses are: Wor$ester" ere)ord" Windsorand Ne!$astle, /onsiderin all handi$a* $hase r+nners !hi$h$arried 12-0 or more at these $o+rses" startin at less than 10D1"?the reasons )or im*osin the *ri$e restri$tion ha&e .een dis$+ssedin *re&io+s se$tions@ o&er the *ast )e! seasons !o+ld ha&eres+lted in 249 .ets !ith 39 !inners" a strike rate o) 2J" and ana&erae ret+rn o) 26* *er A1 staked, here)ore"

consider backing any horse starting at less than!" in a handicap chase at Worcester# ereford#Windsor or 5ewcastle which is carrying $ stone ormore% e&pected profit $6p per ( staked.

3


38/62

he e&iden$e *+.lished in *etting For 1 2iving#.ased on tests+ndertaken in the 19th $ent+ry" indi$ated that !eiht only slo!edhorses to an a**re$ia.le deree !hen the amo+nt rea$hed 14stone, #rom the a.o&e ta.les it a**ears that this ar+ment $o+ldstill a**ly today" o&er one h+ndred years later,

In s+mmary" the horses !hi$h $arry more !eiht !in more o)ten,#+rthermore" !e )o+nd that +sin the !eiht allotted as an a.ilityratin is as a$$+rate as the tested inde*endent ratins ser&i$e, head&antae a))orded to the to* !eihts does not a**ear to .ered+$ed !hen the oin t+rns so)t" .+t $an .e )+rther enhan$ed .y

the $on)i+ration o) the ra$e$o+rse,

Front Rnner#

In the *eaten Favouritesse$tion !e )o+nd a *ro)ita.le .ettinstratey !hi$h inored $+rrent )orm" and the $om*etition )rom theother r+nners in the ra$e, It sim*ly )o$+sed on t!o items o) data)rom the animal8s *er)orman$e history, his does not sit ha**ily!ith $on&entional ra$ehorse sele$tion !hi$h re;+ires the .ettor toe&al+ate many attri.+tes asso$iated !ith ea$h r+nner" s+$h ass+ita.ility o) oin and ra$e distan$e" in addition to o&erall le&elo) a.ility" and then to make a $om*arison .ased on these data todetermine the most likely !inner, o!e&er" !e )o+nd that the*eaten Favouritesmethod *rod+$es a reasona.le *ro)it !hi$h is

almost entirely d+e to its +n$on&entional )orm and the )a$t that the*ri$e at !hi$h the horse started in its *re&io+s ra$e is not$onsidered to .e a sini)i$ant dis$riminatin )a$tor .y most*+nters and .ookmakers, n o.&io+s a**roa$h to de&elo*alternati&e *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods is to $onsider other dataitems !hi$h are o&erlooked .y the .ettin *+.li$" and determinetheir e))e$ti&eness at ret+rnin a *ro)it, In this se$tion !e look at

7


39/62

another $ommonly inored &aria.le" the style o) r+nnin ands*e$i)i$ally )ront r+nners,

In h+man athleti$s" other than s*rints" )ront r+nnin is not*arti$+larly *o*+lar, +man middle distan$e athletes seem to*er)orm .etter i) they are a.le to r+n >+st .ehind another$om*etitor )or the ma>ority o) the ra$e, #or instan$e" *a$e makersare al!ays +sed )or re$ord .reakin attem*ts to ens+re that the.etter athletes do not ha&e to run from the front, n the otherhand" in horsera$in )ront r+nnin is ;+ite *o*+lar, hisdi))eren$e $o+ld .e d+e to $ontrastin trainin reimes or the

*sy$holoi$al di))eren$es .et!een h+mans and horses, h+manathlete kno!s the ea$t distan$e o) the ra$e" the distan$e heDshehas still to r+n and the )a$t that the other r+nners !ill try to *asshimDher, orses are a!are o) none o) these )a$ts" and are sim*lyr+nnin, here are" o) $o+rse" e$e*tional $ases" !here *arti$+larhorses !ill not r+n so !ell !hen o+t in )ront" and i) they are to !inneed to .e held +* +ntil the )inal staes o) the ra$e, B+t ineneral" horses" !itho+t the a$+te mental a!areness o) the h+manathlete" sho+ld .e a.le to r+n >+st as !ell" or .etter" )rom the )rontas )rom any other *osition in the )ield,

ne *o*+lar mis$on$e*tion $on$ernin )ront r+nners is the s*eedthey are r+nnin relati&e to the other r+nners, It is a lon held.elie) .y some ra$e o.ser&ers that )ront r+nners are a$t+allyr+nnin )aster than the )ollo!in *a$k" and hen$e the horses !hi$hare held +* are $onser&in their enery, I) this !ere tr+e" the a*

.et!een the )ront r+nner and the *a$k !o+ld .e rad+allyin$reasin !ith the )ront r+nner dra!in )+rther $lear, I) the a*remains $onstant" it means that all the horses are r+nnin at" ora.o+t" the same s*eed,

here are many ad&antaes to )ront r+nnin !hi$h !ere $learlyill+strated .y the Martin i*e - eter S$+damore *artnershi*d+rin the late 19708s, #or eam*le" )ront r+nners

9


40/62

$annot .e .ro+ht do!n, dmittedly" less than 1J o) r+nners are.ro+ht do!n ?see art I@ so the ad&antae is only sliht" .+tnonetheless it is an ad&antae, #ront r+nners do not s+))er )rom.ein unsighted!hen a**roa$hin a h+rdle or )en$e makin the>+m* m+$h harder to ee$+te and in$reasin the $han$es o) )allin,Master ats eem*li)ied this *oint !hen !innin the 1995 Gold/+*, In the initial staes o) the ra$e Master ats !as held +*.ehind se&eral horses and his >+m*in !as )ar )rom *er)e$t, B+tas soon as Norman Williamson mo&ed him to the o+tside his>+m*in im*ro&ed markedly and s+$$ess !as &irt+ally ass+red,ther ad&antaes !hi$h $an .e e*loited .y the >o$key in$l+de:

takin the shortest ro+te" sele$tin the .est ro+nd on !hi$h tora$e" di$tatin the *a$e o) the ra$e and" most im*ortantly" startinthe ra$e !ith se&eral lenths lead o&er the other r+nners,

So" i) !e .elie&e that )ront r+nners hold a distin$t ad&antae o&ertheir $om*etitors" and that this ad&antae is not +ni&ersallya$$e*ted" !e sho+ld .e a.le to de&elo* a *ro)ita.le .ettinstratey .ased on this ass+m*tion,

Be)ore analysin the data it is im*ortant to *re$isely de)ine thetermfront runner?this as*e$t o) the analysis is $o&ered in detailin the3eveloping Profitable election 7ethods se$tion@, #romthe in)ormation in the )orm.ook" ho! $an !e tell i) the ra$e !as!on .y a )ront r+nner /learly" !e need to look at the $omments-in-r+nnin, hese $omments are desined to *ro&ide a .rie)s+mmary o) ho! the ra$e !as r+n and sho+ld $ontain the

in)ormation !e re;+ire, o!e&er" analysin these $omments isnot easy" and in terms o) ra$e $omments" the de)inition o) a )rontr+nner is" to a $ertain etent" am.i+o+s, #or instan$e" !o+ld a$haser" !hi$h took +* the lead at the se$ond )en$e and maintainedthe lead to the line" .e $onsidered a )ront r+nner What a.o+t ananimal !hi$h took +* the lead at the third o.sta$le" !as .rie)ly

40


41/62

headed t!o )en$es o+t" .+t reained the lead to !in .&io+sly"!e need to esta.lish a set o) r+les !hi$h satis)y o+r o!n de)initiono) a )ront r+nner and a**ly them stri$tly,

#or the *+r*oses o) this analysis" I ha&e de)ined a )ront r+nner to.e an animal )or !hi$h the $omment-in-r+nnin $ontained either o)the )ollo!in:

made all

or made &irt+ally all

his is &ery sim*listi$" and !ill miss many horses !hi$h $o+ld .e$onsidered to .e )ront r+nners, o!e&er" the de)inition is+nam.i+o+s and $an .e a**lied !itho+t too m+$h di))i$+lty,

sin this de)inition a.o+t 12J o) National +nt ra$es" in re$entseasons" ha&e .een !on .y )ront r+nners, his $om*ares to 10Jin 197D74" an in$rease o) a.o+t 60 ra$es, nalysin )rontr+nners .y oin sho+ld indi$ate i) it is easier to !in )rom the)ront on $ertain ty*es o) ro+nd, a.le 11 *resents the n+m.er o)ra$es !on .y )ront r+nners .y oin:

Tab2e **9 Ana2y#%# of Front Rnner# by Go%n3

Nmber of

Front Rnn%n3 Nmber

Go%n3 -%nner# of Race# 456

ard 7 0 26,3

#irm 161 105 15,6

Good to )irm 50 2343 12,3

Good 33 697 10,2

Good to so)t 201 1961 10,2

So)t 209 1914 10,9

ea&y 14 751 15,3

A22 *>>' *&&


42/62

#rom a.le 11 !e $an see that the *ro*ortion o) ra$es !on .y)ront r+nners does not &ary a**re$ia.ly ?the )i+re )or hardoinis .ased on a small sam*le@, nd a)ter ad>+stin )or the a&erae)ield siCe )or ea$h oin $ateory" the *er$entaes .e$ome e&enmore +ni)orm" leadin +s to $on$l+de that the ty*e o) s+r)a$e doesnot e))e$t the $han$es o) a )ront r+nner, he $on$l+sion isdi))erent" ho!e&er" !hen the ra$e distan$e is $onsidered, a.le 12sho!s the n+m.er o) ra$es !on .y )ront r+nners !ithin ra$edistan$e:

Tab2e *&9 Ana2y#%# of Front Rnner# by Race /%#tance

Nmber of

Race Front Rnn%n3 Nmber

/%#tance -%nner# of Race# 456

16),,17) 636 5524 12,2

19),,21) 44 2721 12,2

22),,24) 263 2544 10,5

25)H 150 11 11,4

A22 *>


43/62

need to identi)y before the race!hi$h horse?s@ are likely to )rontr+n, Nat+rally" an animal8s *ast ra$e *er)orman$es is the .est+ide, sin the $omments-in-r+nnin )or *re&io+s ra$e*er)orman$es the de)inition o) a likely )ront r+nner $o+ld ha&e.een stated as )ollo!s:

a horse is identified as a probable front runner if it wonits most recent outing and the terms made all or made&irt+ally allappeared in its comment-in-running.

ain" this is one o) many de)initions !hi$h $o+ld .e +sed and has

.een sele$ted d+e to its sim*le" +nam.i+o+s )orm, nalysin allhorses !hi$h ;+ali)y as *ro.a.le )ront r+nners )or )o+r seasons*rod+$ed the )ollo!in res+lts: 4 !inners )rom 1225 .ets" astrike rate o) 27J" !ith a loss o) 13* *er A1 staked, his is a &ery*oor res+lt" ho!e&er !ith a little re)inin !e sho+ld .e a.le tot+rn this into a *ro)it,

In the *re&io+s se$tion !e )o+nd that horses are a.le to $arry .i!eihts more easily at *arti$+lar $o+rses, It is also tr+e that )rontr+nners are s+ited .y *arti$+lar ty*es o) ra$e$o+rse" a.le 1ill+strates this )a$t:

Tab2e *


44/62

Eeter 11 ?4,4@ 2 -0,1

#akenham 1 ?9,1@ 11 -0,59

#olkestone 1 ?25,0@ 4 -0,63

#ont!ell 14 ?45,2@ 1 H0,07

aydo$k 9 ?2,3@ 7 -0,49

ere)ord 12 ?40,0@ 0 H0,2

eham 2 ?40,0@ 5 H0,21

+ntindon 1 ?,@ 9 H0,1

elso 9 ?42,9@ 21 H0,0

em*ton 17 ?2,3@ 55 -0,11

(ei$ester ?21,4@ 14 -0,52

(in)ield 4 ?6,4@ 11 -0,13(+dlo! 6 ?23,@ 22 -0,5

Market 'asen 7 ?25,7@ 1 -0,26

M+ssel.+rh 5 ?31,4@ 3 H1,05

Ne!.+ry 10 ?2,7@ 42 -0,10

Ne!$astle 4 ?19,1@ 21 -0,1

Ne!ton ..ot 14 ?4,2@ 41 -0,1

Nottinham 5 ?5,3@ 14 -0,03

erth 7 ?43,1@ 13 H0,7

l+m*ton 1 ?40,6@ 2 H0,02

Sando!n 14 ?2,6@ 4 H0,23

Sede)ield 6 ?25,0@ 24 -0,21

So+th!ell 2 ?16,3@ 12 -0,7

Strat)ord 7 ?13,4@ 46 -0,50

a+nton 6 ?25,0@ 24 -0,21

o!$ester ?15,7@ 19 -0,30ttoeter 19 ?,@ 53 -0,03

War!i$k 7 ?25,7@ 1 -0,9

Wether.y 7 ?19,5@ 41 -0,7

Win$anton 3 ?27,0@ 25 H0,06

Windsor 0 ?0,0@ 5 -1,00

Wor$ester 10 ?23,0@ 3 H0,05

A22 < &=.' *&&1 @'.*?

#rom a.le 1 the tra$ks !hi$h s+it )ront r+nners $an easily .eseen, he *er$entae strike rate ranes )rom 0J at Windsor to31J at M+ssel.+rh, /onse;+ently" the )ront r+nners8 $o+rses$an .e $lassi)ied .y $om*arin the strike )or ea$h tra$k !ith theo&erall a&erae strike rate, Settin a

44


45/62

threshold at 5J" all $o+rses !ith a !inners to r+nners strike ratee$eedin this threshold !o+ld .e $lassi)ied as ood tra$ks )or)ront r+nners, ?his is an ar.itrary threshold and $an .e in$reasedor lo!ered to &ary the analysis,@ he $o+rses !hi$h e$eed the5J threshold are listed .elo! ?e$l+din Nottinham !hi$h noloner staes national +nt ra$in@:

/arlisle" /atteri$k" %on$aster" #ont!ell" ere)ord"eham" elso" (in)ield" M+ssel.+rh" erth andl+m*ton,

Ba$kin all ;+ali)yin horses at these tra$ks res+lts in 90 !inners)rom 210 .ets" a strike rate o) 4J" !ith an a&erae ret+rn *er A1staked o) 29*, here)ore"

consider backing any horse classified as a probablefront runner at +arlisle# +atterick# 3oncaster#Fontwell# ereford# e&ham# 8elso# 2ingfield#7usselburgh# Perth or Plumpton% e&pected profit$9p per ( staked.

he a.o&e res+lt is ;+ite *leasin" ho!e&er" it is *ossi.le toim*ro&e .oth the strike rate and the a&erae ret+rn, By restri$tinthe analysis to handi$a* ra$es res+lts in 55 !inners )rom 15 .ets"a strike rate o) 41J" !ith a ret+rn o) 4* *er A1 staked, We ha&e

already seen that )ront r+nners are .etter s+ited .y shorter distan$era$es" and .y )+rther restri$tin o+r .ets to handi$a* ra$es o&er 16-17 )+rlons im*ro&es the ret+rn to: 2 !inners )rom 65 .ets" astrike rate o) 49J" !ith an a&erae ret+rn o) 32* *er A1 staked,

In s+mmary" horses !hi$h ha&e !on ra$es .y )ront r+nnin are!orthy o) $lose $onsideration, here are many ad&antaes to )rontr+nnin" not least the lead !hi$h $an .e

45


46/62

*oa$hed at the start o) a ra$e, #ront r+nners are .etter s+ited toshorter ra$es ?i,e, 16 to 17 )+rlons@" and .y *arti$+lar ra$e$o+rse$on)i+rations,

0%re#

In #lat ra$in the in)l+en$es o) the sire" and to a $ertain etent thedam" are +sed to *ro&ide $l+es to the likes and dislikes o) the

*roeny, #or instan$e" as the %er.y nears there is al!ayss*e$+lation in the trade *ress reardin the likely le&els o) stamina*ossessed .y the leadin $ontenders .ased on the staminaehi.ited .y their sires" dams and randsires,

In National +nt ra$in" the in)l+en$e o) the animal8s *arents isnot s+$h an im*ortant to*i$, his is .e$a+se the horses tend to r+nmore o)ten and" hen$e" their *re)eren$es $an .e determined dire$tly)rom the )orm, o!e&er" it is a !orth!hile eer$ise to resear$hthe in)l+en$es o) the sires o) National +nt horses" and eneratein)ormation !hi$h $o+ld .e in$or*orated into .ettin systems, )+ll eamination o) all National +nt sires is .eyond the s$o*e o)this tet" ho!e&er" 60 o) the to* sires ha&e .een eamined to*rod+$e the )ollo!in ta.les, he sires ;+oted are those )or !homthe in)l+en$e is sini)i$ant )or ea$h analysis $om*onent,

a.le 14 ill+strates the in)l+en$e o) the sire on its *roeny8s*re)eren$e )or *arti$+lar states o) oin,

46


47/62

Tab2e *>9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate of Pro3enyB# Race

Performance# by Go%n3

Fa#t Grond 0oft Grond

0%re 456 Retrn78* 456 Retrn78*

lias Smith ?S@ 4,2 -0,32 12,7 H0,53

Bla$k Minstrel 9, -0,46 15,4 -0,21

Blakeney 16,7 -0,02 11,6 -0,43

Broads!ord ?S@ 10,6 H0,11 4,4 -0,72

B+$kskin ?#'@ 14,4 -0,20 20,5 H0,20

/rash /o+rse 3,1 -0,32 12,6 -0,4

%ee* '+n 13,3 -0,0 11,6 -0,20

%ominion 11, -0,4 16,5 -0,27Ele$tri$ 15,6 -0,50 7,4 -0,50

G+nner B ,7 -0,65 1, H0,04

en.it ?S@ 20,4 -0,00 10,7 -0,24

=+lio Mariner 15,9 H0,02 3,4 -0,39

am.alda 22,0 -0,02 12,1 -0,23

emal ?#'@ 11,3 H0,01 16, H0,01

ris 13,5 -0,13 11,9 -0,23

(e Ba&ard ?#'@ 14, H0,17 6, -0,69

Nisha*o+r ?#'@ 1,2 -0, 6,6 -0,34

&er he 'i&er ?#'@ 15,4 -0,09 7,6 -0,29

hardante ?#'@ 19,1 H0,05 10,3 -0,1

Stron Gale 19,7 H0,01 10,9 -0,9

or+s 16,1 H0,92 11,5 -0,4

r+e Son 1,2 -0,55 4,5 -0,21

n$le okey 4,0 -0,71 15,6 -0,02

!herefastro+nd is de)ined to .e hard" firmor good to firm andsoft

ro+nd is de)ined to .esoftor heavyoin in the ))i$ial )orm.ook,

here are remarka.le di))eren$es .et!een some o) the *er$entaes*resented in the a.o&e ta.le, #or instan$e" only ,7J o) the ra$e*er)orman$es on fast oin .y the *roeny o) G+nner B ha&eres+lted in !ins" !hereas on softoin this )i+re in$reases to1,J, It is also interestin to note that it !o+ld ha&e .een*ro)ita.le to .a$k all *roeny o) se&eral sires on either so)t or )astoin, #or eam*le" a le&el A1 stake .et on all the r+nners sired.y B+$kskin ?#'@ !o+ld ha&e res+lted in an a&erae ret+rn o) 20**er A1, n analysis .y ra$e distan$e is e;+ally as in)ormati&e,a.le 15 *resents this in)ormation:

43


48/62

Tab2e *19 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate of Pro3enyB# Race

Performance# by Race /%#tance

Race /%#tance %n fr2on3#

0%re *(..&'f &*..&>f &1f

lias Smith ?S@ : ,5 9,6 13,1

Ret -0,49 -0,6 -0,16

rdross : 17,9 16,7 12,9

Ret H0,19 H0,17 H0,11

Baron Blakeney : 9,7 9,2 1,7

Ret -0,4 -0,44 -0,90

Bla$k Minstrel : 1,4 11,7 4,9

Ret -0,05 -0,23 -0,36

%errin 'ose : 4,0 12,0 13,3

Ret -0,74 -0,6 -0,14

%ominion : 14,3 1,0 3,1

Ret -0,29 -0,07 -0,36

#+rry Glen : 15,2 1,4 10,1

Ret -0,2 -0,23 -0,7

Green Shoon : 7,1 9,6 15,4

Ret -0,46 -0,4 H0,05

G+nner B : 10,9 2,6 0,0

Ret -0,16 -0,37 -1,00

(e Ba&ard ?#'@ : 3, 9,2 11,3

Ret -0,40 -0,29 -0,4

ats : 12,5 14,0 21,5

Ret -0,16 -0,16 H0,05

'oselier ?#'@ : 12,5 14,4 20,3

Ret -0,07 -0,26 H0,50

!hereRetdenotes the a&erae ret+rn *er A1 staked,

Based on the a.o&e data" it is $lear that stamina traits are *assed)rom sire to o))s*rin, #or eam*le" the *roeny o) BaronBlakeney do not a**ear s+ited .y etreme distan$es in e$ess o) miles, In $ontrast" the r+nners sired .y ats seem to e$el in londistan$e ra$es,

third and slihtly more o.s$+re analysis" $on$erns $o+rsedire$tions, Some animals *re)er to r+n in a *arti$+lar dire$tion"either riht- or le)t-handed, he )ollo!in ta.le seems to indi$atethat this *re)eren$e $an .e inherited )rom the sire,

Tab2e *(9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate of Pro3enyB# RacePerformance# by Cor#e /%rect%on

47


49/62

+ourse 3irection

Left@;anded R%3$t@;anded

0%re 456 Retrn78* 456 Retrn78*

.salom 3,7 -0,69 12,4 -0,44

rdross 20, H0,4 11,4 -0,25

Bla$k Minstrel 9,7 -0,40 15,0 H0,0

Blakeney 9,9 -0,4 15, -0,5

/r+ise Missile 2, -0,53 3,4 -0,69

#+rry Glen 15,1 -0,2 11,4 -0,

Green Shoon 12,4 -0,16 3,7 -0,53

G+nner B 11,0 -0,15 5, -0,53emal ?#'@ 14,4 -0,17 9,7 -0,42

(e Moss 15,4 H0,09 12,6 -0,2

'oselier ?#'@ 12,3 -0,15 16,5 H0,05

S$ally!a 11,0 -0,42 6,7 -0,5

he arson 15,2 -0,19 11,0 -0,29

r+e Son 3,4 -0,6 12,2 -0,25

n$le okey 6,7 -0,55 10,9 -0,20

%+e to the lare n+m.er o) ra$e *er)orman$es analysed ?o&er100"000@ all the a.o&e di))eren$es in strike rate .et!een the$o+rse dire$tions are sini)i$ant, he most strikin di))eren$e isthat )or rdross, !inners to r+nners strike rate o) 20,4J onle)t-handed $o+rses $om*ared to only 11,4J on riht-handedtra$ks,

he a.o&e ta.les ill+strate the traits !hi$h $an .e inherited .y

horses )rom their sires, Whilst this in)ormation alone $annot .e+sed to )orm+late a *ro)ita.le .ettin stratey" it sho+ld .e$onsidered as a $om*onent o) $on&entional ra$e analysis"es*e$ially )or *re&io+sly +nra$ed horses" and to s+**lement othersystemati$ sele$tion methods,

49


50/62

T$e T%me Factor

In National +nt ra$in" *re&io+s ra$e times are not enerally$onsidered to .e o) *rimary im*ortan$e !hen analysin ra$es d+eto the *ro.lemati$ nat+re o) in$or*oratin the data into a so+ndanalyti$al )orm+la, here are many di))i$+lties asso$iated !ith+sin ra$e times to assist in ra$e analysis" s*e$i)i$ally the+nrelia.le nat+re o) the oin assessments and the &ariation in thera$e$o+rse $on)i+rations a$ross the $o+ntry, o!e&er" it is still*ossi.le to de&ise sele$tion methods !hi$h rely on *re&io+slya$hie&ed ra$e times !hi$h are !orthy o) $onsideration,

he &aria.ility o) ra$e$o+rse $on)i+ration $an" to some etent" .en+lli)ied .y the introd+$tion o) a ra$e standard time, Both thetrade *a*ers" as !ell as ime)orm and 'a$e)orm" *rod+$e standardtimes )or ea$h ra$e distan$e on e&ery $o+rse in Great Britain,S+$h times are s+**osed to re*resent the likely time a horse rated15 .y the BB !o+ld take to r+n the $o+rse on ood to )irmoin, sin these standards )a$ilitates the $om*arison o) ra$etimes *rod+$ed .y di))erent horses on di))erent tra$ks, o!e&er itdoes not take a$$o+nt o) &aryin ro+nd $onditions,

Nat+rally" ra$es r+n on di))erent ro+nd $onditions !ill *rod+$edi))erent times, #or instan$e" ra$es on so)t or hea&y ro+nd $anres+lt in times o&er 50 se$onds slo!er than the standard" !hereasthose on a )ast s+r)a$e $an .e r+n in times sini)i$antly )aster than

the standard, /learly" the a$$+rate $om*arison o) s+$h ra$e*er)orman$es is not an easy *ro.lem to o&er$ome,

he $al$+lation o) a oin allo!an$e" .ased on the ra$es staed onthe $o+rse on a *arti$+lar day" is o)ten s+ested as a sol+tion tothis *ro.lem, his )i+re $an then .e +sed to normalise )or thee))e$t o) the oin at di))erent $o+rses and

50


51/62

)a$ilitate the $om*arison o) the ra$e *er)orman$es, o determinethe oin allo!an$e" the di))eren$es .et!een the a$t+al ra$e timesand the standard times are )irst di&ided .y the ra$e distan$es andthen a&eraed a)ter any )reak )i+res ha&e .een remo&ed,

here)ore" )or a si ra$e $ard" the times may ha&e .een as )ollo!s:

Tab2e *?9 Ca2c2at%on of Go%n3 A22owance

Race Race 0tandard /%ff. per

/%#t. T%me 4#6 T%me 4#6 /%ff. 4#6 Fr2on3 4#6

16,5 259,5 23,0 22,5 1,6

20,5 14,5 274,0 0,5 1,49

19,5 16,5 27,0 ,5 1,32

16,5 265,0 227,0 3,0 2,24

24,0 406,4 3,0 69,4 2,79

16,5 260,6 227,0 2,6 1,97

It $o+ld .e ar+ed that the time )or the )i)th ra$e is an o+tlier andsho+ld .e remo&ed )rom the oin allo!an$e $al$+lation d+e to itsetreme &al+e, /onse;+ently" the oin allo!an$e .e$omes thea&erae o) the other )i&e times" namely 1,36 se$onds *er )+rlon,In )a$t" Ni$k Mordin ?in*etting For 1 2iving@ enerally takes thea&erae o) the three )astest times e$l+din any o+tliers" altho+hthere are no hard and )ast r+les o&ernin the n+m.er o) ra$es yo++se,

n$e the oin allo!an$e has .een $al$+lated it is *ossi.le to$al$+late a s*eed )i+re )or any r+nner on the $ard, #irstly" it isne$essary to ad>+st the time o) the !inner .y the oin allo!an$e"to *rod+$e a normalised time, here)ore" i) the oin allo!an$eindi$ates that the tra$k is ridin )aster than the norm" the !innintime is in$reased a$$ordinly, #or instan$e" i)" in a 16 )+rlonh+rdle ra$e" the tra$k is )o+nd to .e ridin 0,1 se$onds *er )+rlon)aster than the standard" the

51


52/62

time o) the !inner sho+ld .e in$reased .y 1,6 se$onds ?i,e, 16 0,1@, his ne! time .ein an estimate o) the time the horse !o+ldha&e re$orded on a&erae oin,

o $on&ert the time to a ratin it is ne$essary to $onsider thestandard ra$e time )or the distan$e, t this *oint" it is ne$essary toset the s$ale )or the ratins, Normally" a horse *rod+$in a timee;+i&alent to the standard !o+ld .e i&en a ratin o) 100,o!e&er" any )i+re $o+ld .e +sed to determine the ratin s$ale,he net ste* is to determine the di))eren$e .et!een the standardtime and the ad>+sted time" in se$onds, his )i+re is m+lti*lied

.y 5 ?lenths r+n *er se$ond@, he res+ltant )i+re is either addedto" or s+.tra$ted )rom" 100 de*endin on !hether the ad>+stedtime is )aster" or slo!er than the standard time, #inally" the )i+resho+ld .e ad>+sted )or distan$e .eaten .y the !inner, #or a moredetailed des$ri*tion o) $al$+latin s*eed )i+res see*etting For 12iving.y Ni$k Mordin,

Whilst this method )or eneratin s*eed ratins is !ell )o+nded intheory" it relies hea&ily on t!o *otentially +nrelia.le $om*onents"namely the standard time and oin allo!an$e, In )a$t" the a$t+alra$e time itsel) is )ar )rom *er)e$t" de*endin as it does" in thema>ority o) $ases" on hand-timin,

he )ollo!in method )or sele$tin horses !ith !innin *otential+tilises the ra$e time and standard time .+t not the oinallo!an$e" !hi$h" d+e to its a**roimate method o) $al$+lation" is

the $om*onent s+.>e$t to the hihest deree o) error,

he sele$tion method is .ased on the horses !hi$h *rod+$e the.est ra$e times o) the day at ea$h ra$e$o+rse, he best timeo) theday is sim*ly the )astest time relati&e to the standards, #oream*le" i&en the si ra$es:

52


53/62

/%fference from

Race Nmber 0tandard T%me 4#6

1 H11,7

2 H7,0

H2,9

4 H6,2

5 H3,9

6 H5,0

the .est ra$e time o) the day !as re$orded in ra$e sin$e this timeis $losest to the standard and all ra$e times e$eeded their

$om*ara.le standards, In the net eam*le" the .est ra$e time !asre$orded in ra$e 4" the ra$e !hi$h *rod+$ed a time ,9 se$onds)aster than the standard ?hen$e the min+s sin@, he net .est timeo) the day !o+ld .e ra$e 1 at 1,1 se$onds +nder the standard,

/%fference from

Race Nmber 0tandard T%me

1 -1,1

2 H5,5

H2,6

4 -,9

5 H9,9

6 H11,0

he )ollo!in ta.le $harts the *er)orman$e o) horses !hi$h !in

the ra$e *rod+$in the .est time o) the day" on their net o+tin:

Tab2e *=9 0tr%"e Rate and A:era3e Retrn for Good T%mePerformer# on T$e%r NeEt Rn

T%me

A:era3e

/%fference -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*

0,00-4,00 269 ?29,6@ 910 -0,01

4,01-5,00 9 ?29,@ 1 -0,11

5,01-6,00 25 ?1,6@ 39 H0,14

6,01-3,00 22 ?6,3@ 60 H0,47

5


54/62

3,01-7,00 17 ?42,9@ 42 H0,07

7,01H 24 ?1,2@ 33 H0,20

Tota2


55/62

ood *er)orman$e, n alternati&e e*lanation is that s+$h ra$etimes indi$ate errors in the standard time )or the $o+rse,

n analysis o) the 257 sele$tions .y ra$e rade sho+ld hel* toim*ro&e the a&erae ret+rn, a.le 19 *resents this analysis:

Tab2e *+9 0tr%"e Rate and A:era3e Retrn for Good T%mePerformer# on T$e%r NeEt Rn by Race Grade

Race

A:era3e

Grade -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*

/ond, dl, 4 ?66,3@ 6 H2,64

/lm, dl, 2 ?66,3@ H1,63

No&, dl, 14 ?7,9@ 6 H0,3

Sell, dl, 4 ?44,4@ 9 H2,79

$a*, dl 16 ?24,6@ 65 -0,01

+nter /hs, 0 ?0,0@ -1,00

/ond, /hs, 2 ?,@ 6 -0,47

/lm, /hs, 0 ?0,0@ 1 -1,00

No&, /hs, 22 ?46,7@ 43 H0,2

Sell, /hs, 0 ?-@ 0 -

$a*,/hs, 25 ?0,5@ 72 -0,06

Tota2 =+ 4.16 &1= '.&o$keysis not *arti$+larly relia.le )or the reasons hihlihted in+orrelation, here is a reat deal o) $orrelation .et!een trainers">o$keys and o!ners: the .est >o$keys ride )or the .est trainers andthe most dominant o!ners tend to ha&e their horses ridden .y the.est >o$keys, /onse;+ently" a &ery *ro)ita.le sele$tion method$an s+ddenly .e$ome &ery $ostly i) a main o!ner remo&es hisDherhorses )rom a trainer" or a ridin arranement is terminated,

Mea#rement - Base the sele$tion methods on ;+anti)ia.le&aria.les" )or eam*le data items s+$h as histori$al !ins to r+nsstrike rate o) the horse, ry to a&oid ;+alitati&e items s+$h ass+ita.ility o) oin" distan$e et$," +nless these terms $an .ede)ined *re$isely, *inion is di))i$+lt to analyse" and it is )ar )rom$onstant, I) yo+ )eel that s+ita.ility o) the oin is im*ortant" thende)ine ea$tly !hat $onstit+tes s+ita.le and +ns+ita.le oin )or ahorse, #or instan$e" the )ollo!in de)inition $o+ld .e +sed )oroin s+ita.ility:

53


58/62

the going may be assessed as suitable if and only if thehorse has won on an identical surface in the past tenruns.

o!e&er" this in itsel) !ill introd+$e )+rther *ro.lems, sin thisde)inition dis$riminates" to a $ertain etent" .et!een horses !hi$hha&e !on in the *ast ten r+ns and those !hi$h ha&e not,/onse;+ently" an +nderlyin relationshi* has already .eenintrod+$ed,

/ata Co22ect%on - here are three iss+es $on$erned !ith data$olle$tion: ;+ality" ;+antity and s*read, /learly" the data $olle$tedneeds to .e a$$+rate and +n.iased, his seems o.&io+s" .+t it isnot ne$essarily a straiht)or!ard task to +ndertake" es*e$ially!hen etra$tin data man+ally )rom a )orm.ook, It is &ery easy toomit *arti$+lar ra$es d+rin the etra$tion *ro$ess reasonin:


59/62

system into a seeminly *ro)ita.le method, #+rthermore" !henr+nnin the system these sele$tions are o)ten inored" es*e$iallyd+rin lon losin r+ns,

0tr%"e rate- im )or an a**roa$h !ith a reasona.le !inner to.ets strike rate, strike rate o) >+st 10J is not really hiheno+h" the losin r+ns !ill o$$+r too )re;+ently and $o+ld .eetremely lon, im )or a strike rate o) at least 20J,

Te#t%n3 0ta3e

here are t!o di))erent !ays o) testin a ne! sele$tion method,he )irst in&ol&es *artitionin the data set beforethe de&elo*ment*ro$ess, ne *art $an .e +sed )or de&elo*ment and the other )ortestin, #or instan$e" i) the data ha&e .een $olle$ted )rom )o+rseasons" the )irst three seasons $o+ld .e +sed to de&elo* and re)inethe system !ith the )o+rth season +sed )or testin, he se$ondmethod" and the one I *re)er" is to test the system li&e, In other!ords" de&elo* the a**roa$h on all a&aila.le and rele&ant data"and $ond+$t the testin *hase d+rin the )ollo!in year .y eitherkee*in a re$ord o) the system8s *er)orman$e or .y a$t+ally.a$kin the sele$tions to small stakes, In addition to *ro&idin areal test en&ironment" this a**roa$h is also one o) ed+$ation )orthe *+nter, By $losely monitorin the system thro+h the*la$ement o) .ets" the *+nter !ill et a .etter feel)or the methodand *erha*s identi)y other hihly $orrelated &aria.les, #orinstan$e the likelihood o) lon losin r+ns" the !ay heDshe rea$ts

a)ter se&eral losin .ets et$, n$e satis)ied !ith the &alidity o) thesystem the *+nter $an then in$rease the stakes,

Rnn%n3 T$e 0y#tem

It is &ery easy to .reak the r+les o) the system" es*e$ially d+rinlon losin r+ns, his .eha&io+r sho+ld .e a&oided, ro&idinthe system has .een .ased on !ell-)o+nded ideas"

59


60/62

and has .een ade;+ately tested" there is no need to do+.t its a.ilityto ret+rn a *ro)it, /onse;+ently" the de&ised stakin *lan sho+ld.e adhered to, here is nothin !orse than )indin" at the end o)the year" that yo+ ha&e lost money" and that i) yo+ had ke*t to thesystem8s r+les yo+ !o+ld ha&e made a *ro)it,

60


61/62

CONCLUDING REMARKS

hro+ho+t this .ook I ha&e attem*ted to sho! that !hilst it is*ossi.le to make a *ro)it )rom =+m*s ra$in" it does notne$essarily $ome )rom the $on&entional a**roa$h to !inner)indin, Sim*ly .a$kin a hih *ro*ortion o) !inners does notens+re a lon term *ro)it,

he $on&entional a**roa$h to ra$e analysis re;+ires the *+nter to

determine" amonst n+mero+s other )a$tors" !hether the sele$tionis s+ited .y the ra$e distan$e" oin" tra$k $on)i+ration et$," all o)!hi$h ha&e .een $onsidered .y the .ookmakers .e)ore *ri$in +*the ra$e, /onse;+ently" *+nters and .ookmakers are !orkin !iththe same data" and i) they .oth ado*t similar a**roa$hes tosol&in the ra$e s+rely the *+nter m+st $ome o)) !orse in the lonr+n, ood eam*le $on$erns the sele$tion method .ased ontime, orses !hi$h *rod+$e o+tstandin times are not as*ro)ita.le to )ollo! as those !hi$h merely *rod+$e ood timessin$e this )a$t is !idely re*orted and re)le$ted in s+.se;+entstartin *ri$es, ood" .+t not re$ord .reakin time" is o)teno&erlooked .y .ookmakers and not in$or*orated into the *ri$eassessment,

So ho! $an the *+nter make a *ro)it Well" there are threeo*tions, he )irst re;+ires the *+nter to .e$ome so kno!ledea.lea.o+t horsera$in that hisDher assessment o) the tr+e *ro.a.ilitiesis &astly s+*erior to the .ookmakers8" to .et only on-$o+rse?a&oidin ta@ and al!ays et the .est *ri$e, his is askin a reatdeal" .+t it is a$hie&a.le, he se$ond o*tion is to a$;+irein)ormation that is +nkno!n to the *+.li$ and .ookmakers, #orinstan$e" to kno! !hen a )an$ied horse is not tryin, o!e&er" Ie*e$t that s+$h in)ormation !o+ld not $ome $hea*ly, he thirdo*tion is to ado*t a di))erent *ers*e$ti&e on ra$e analysis" and +sein)ormation !hi$h is not normally $onsidered" to )orm alternati&esele$tion methods !hi$h ret+rn lon term *ro)its,

&er many years I ha&e tried the )irst and se$ond a**roa$hes to.a$kin horses" altho+h re$ently I ha&e relied almost entirely onthe systemati$ a**roa$h, $$asionally" tem*ted .y the so+ndtheoreti$al .asis o) $on&entional ra$e analysis" I attem*t to study

61


62/62

form, o!e&er" I +s+ally reret these la*ses,

Whether yo+ $hoose to ado*t a systemati$ a**roa$h to .ettin ornot I ho*e that yo+ ha&e )o+nd some !orth!hile material in thistet to in$or*orate into yo+r .ettin strateies,

62

jump racing for profit

Documents