july 2020 commonwealth poll€¦ · 07-07-2020 · richmond, va. (july 30, 2020) -- president...

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July 2020 Commonwealth Poll A survey of Virginians conducted by the Center for Public Policy at VCU’s L. Douglas Wilder School of

Government and Public Affairs FOR RELEASE: 9am, July 30, 2020 Contacts: L. Douglas Wilder Farrah Stone, Ph.D. Angelica Bega, executive assistant Poll Director (804) 828-8520 or [email protected] (804) 305-3447 or [email protected]

Approval of Trump's and Northam's handling of COVID-19 has fallen since April, VCU poll finds

RICHMOND, Va. (July 30, 2020) -- President Donald Trump and Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam saw

approval ratings for their handling of the COVID-19 crisis drop since April, according to a new statewide

poll conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public

Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Trump had a decrease in approval of 7 percentage points, creating a majority of 55% disapproving

somewhat or strongly of how he is handling the response. While Northam had a decrease of 15

percentage points, a majority of Virginians (61%) still approve strongly or somewhat of how he’s

handling the response to COVID-19. Virginians from the Northwest and West regions, men, Republicans

and those with a high school diploma or less were more likely to approve of Trump’s handling of the

crisis. Conversely, residents from Northern Virginia and Tidewater, women, Democrats and those with a

college education were more likely to approve of Northam’s response.

The poll also provides additional insight into Virginians’ opinions on mask wearing, racial equity,

confederate monuments and a snapshot of the 2020 presidential election in Virginia.

“Not surprisingly, Virginians are concerned about the economy,” said former governor L. Douglas

Wilder. “They now recognize the pandemic to be more important than before (the previous poll).”

“The decrease in Trump and Northam’s positive handling of the pandemic is indicative of the increase in

concerns related to the pandemic,” Wilder said.

“The poll also reflects growing concerns about racism in any measure: systemic, the removal of statues,

and/or police reform,” he said. “What we have is one thing (racism); what we do about it is another.”

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The telephone survey of 838 adults living in Virginia was conducted between July 11-19. It has an

estimated margin of error of ±5.19 percentage points for all adults sampled, and ±6.40 percentage

points for likely voters.

Among the poll’s key findings:

Six-in-ten of Virginians (60%) believe wearing masks is helping a lot in slowing the spread of

COVID. Another 21% said wearing masks helps a little. Only 18% said the practice does not help

much or at all. Virginians in NOVA and the South Central region were more likely to think masks

help a lot. Education and income were significant in the opinion, with 71% of those with a

college degree and 70% of those with a family income of more than $100,000 per year saying

masks help a lot. Minorities (with 66% vs. 56% of whites) and Democrats (with 76% vs. 44% of

Republicans and 60% of Independents) were also more likely to say masks help a lot.

Biden leads Trump by eleven percentage points among likely voters in Virginia. When likely

voters were asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 50% said Joe Biden,

while 39% said Donald Trump. Support for Biden was almost unchanged, with a one percent

increase since our last reporting in April 2020. Again, gender and level of education were

significant to the vote choice. Women prefer Joe Biden by 21% (52% Biden/31% Trump) and

men prefer Trump by 11% (49% Trump/38% Biden). Those with a college degree or more prefer

Biden by 22% (54% Biden/32% Trump) compared to those with a high school diploma or less

who prefer Trump by 14% (51% Trump/37% Biden).

The economy is the most important issue to likely voters in the presidential election, followed

by health care and COVID. Eighty-two percent of likely voters said the economy was one of the

most or very important issues in the upcoming election. Seventy percent said the same of health

care; and 66% said the same of the coronavirus outbreak. The economy had a similar level of

importance to all demographic groups. Women, Democrats and minorities were more likely to

say health care and COVID were more important. The coronavirus outbreak was a more

important issue to respondents in NOVA and Tidewater, where cases have been increasing in

recent weeks.

Systemic racism, police reform and immigration were still important to likely voters with over

half saying all three were one of the most or a very important issue in their vote. Women,

minorities and Democrats were more likely to say these three issues were more important to

their vote.

Virginians’ support has shifted away from leaving confederate monuments where they are to

relocating them to museums. A plurality of Virginians (38%) think that the remaining

confederate monuments should be moved to museums, an increase of 15% from the last time

we asked the question in December 2017. The percentage of Virginians who think the

monuments should be left in place has decreased 17% in the same time period, from 49% in

2017 to 32% currently. Only 14% of Virginians think the monuments should be removed all

together.

Virginians’ views on racial equity is significant to vote choice and opinion about confederate

monuments. We also asked respondents whether they thought Blacks in the US are treated as

fairly as Whites or whether changes need to be made for fair treatment. Almost six-in-ten

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Virginians (59%) said changes need to be made for fair treatment to occur. Thirty-five percent

said Blacks are treated as fairly as Whites. That opinion was significant to vote choice and what

should be done with the remaining confederate monuments. Eighty-two percent of those who

say Blacks are treated fairly now say they will vote for Trump. Of those who say we need

change, 71% will vote for Biden. Respondents that think Blacks are treated fairly were more

likely to say the monuments should be left in place, with 65%, while respondents that think

changes need to be made were more likely to say the monuments should move to museums,

with 54%.

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Methodology

The Commonwealth Poll July 2020, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU), obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 838 adults, age 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (417) and cell phone (421, including 178 without a landline). The data collection was conducted by Responsive Management from July 11-19, 2020.

Statistical results are weighted to correct for known demographic discrepancies. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample by the demographic characteristics of sex, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, and region using the geographic and demographic weighting parameters from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 American Community Survey (ACS) data. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 5.19 percentage points. The estimated margin of error for likely voters (n=725) is ±6.19 percentage points.

The sample consisted of a combination of listed landline and cellular random digit dial (RDD) samples. The overall sample was representative of the adult general population of Virginia who have access to either a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. The cellular RDD sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers.

As many as seven attempts were made to contact each landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of the day and on different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Response rates are computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards.1 The response rate for the landline sample was 8.4 percent. The response rate for the cellular sample was 8.2 percent.

1 The American Association for Public Opinion Research. 2016. Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case

Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys, 9th Edition. AAPOR.

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Wilder School Commonwealth Poll July 2020 State-wide survey of Virginians

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July 11-19, 2020 Number of Respondents: 838

Q1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Likely voters only 2020 N Apr

20203

Dec 2019

4

Oct 2019

5

% % % %

Trump 39 261 41 46 46 Biden 50 376 51 49 51 Third party candidate (VOLUNTEERED) 1 11 - - - Don’t Know/Refused 10 66 8 6 3

Q2. How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] one of the most important issues, a very important issue, a somewhat important issue or a less important issue?

Likely voters only

One of most

important

Very important

Somewhat important

Less important

DK/ Refused

% % % % % a. The economy 32 50 16 3 - b. Health care 26 44 21 9 - c. The coronavirus outbreak 34 32 15 18 1 d. Systemic racism 21 33 22 21 4 e. Police reform 18 38 25 18 1 f. Immigration 12 43 30 14 1

Q3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

July 2020

Apr 2020

6

% % Strongly approve 29 28 Somewhat approve 14 22 Somewhat disapprove 10 15 Strongly disapprove 45 33 Don’t Know/Refused 4 2

2 Percentages may add to 99 or 101 due to rounding. Cells that are blank contain no cases. Cells with a zero percent entry

contain cases, but the percentage is less than 0.5%. 3 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll April 2020, n=663 likely voters.

4 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll Winter 2020,n=728 likely voters.

5 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll September 2020, n=728 likely voters.

6 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll April 2020, n=812 adult VA residents.

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Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

July 2020

Apr 2020

% % Strongly approve 31 40 Somewhat approve 30 36 Somewhat disapprove 10 10 Strongly disapprove 24 12 Don’t Know/Refused 5 3

Q5. How much do you think the practice of wearing a mask helps to slow the spread of coronavirus in the U.S.? Is it helping a lot, helping a little, not too much or not at all?

2020 %

Helping a lot 60 Helping a little 21 Not too much 9 Not at all 9 Don’t Know/Refused 2

Q6. Which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither is exactly right? [READ AND RANDOMIZE]

2020 %

Blacks in the United States are treated as fairly as Whites. 35 Changes need to be made in order for Blacks in the United States to be treated as fairly as Whites.

59

Don’t Know/Refused 7

Q7. Although some monuments have been removed recently, thinking about the remaining monuments to Confederate figures in Virginia, which of the following courses of action do you favor?

7 [READ AND RANDOMIZE]

July

2020 Dec

20178

% % Leave them in place as they are 32 49 Add context in the current location such as additional signage 15 13 Relocate to museums 38 23 Remove all together 14 10 Don’t Know/Refused 2 6

7 Added “Although some monuments have been removed recently” and “remaining” to Dec 2017 question.

8 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll Winter 2017-2018, n=788 adult VA residents.

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View of Racial Equity

Vote Choice

Blacks in the United States are treated as fairly as Whites.

Changes need to be made in order for Blacks in the United States to be

treated as fairly as Whites.

% % N Biden 7 71 410 Trump 82 16 267 3

rd party 4 4 22

DK/Refused 8 8 70

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Tables for subgroup analysis9

Q1: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the

Republican, for whom would you vote?

Biden Trump Third Party Don’t

know/Refused Number of

Cases Likely Voters

50% 39% 1% 10% 714

VA Region Northwest 38% 53% 2% 6% 123 NOVA 57% 23% 7% 13% 246 West 34% 56% 4% 7% 135 South Central 40% 49% 2% 9% 154 Tidewater 46% 34% 3% 16% 180

Gender Male 38% 49% 2% 11% 420 Female

52% 31% 6% 11% 418

Age 18-34 45% 41% 9% 5% 79 35-44 52% 40% 1% 8% 74 45-64 44% 38% 1% 16% 337 65 and over 44% 41% 3% 12% 348

Education High school grad or less

37% 51% 5% 8% 159

Some college 42% 39% 5% 14% 207 College graduate or more

54% 32% 3% 12% 472

Family Income Under $50,000 42% 47% 3% 8% 170 50K to under $100,000

46% 41% 4% 8% 215

$100,000 or more

57% 34% 1% 8% 292

Race White 36% 50% 3% 11% 592 Minority

62% 22% 6% 11% 246

Party ID Democrat 87% 6% 3% 4% 256 Republican 9% 81% 1% 8% 202 Independent 40% 39% 6% 15% 362

9 Cells with 0% may have observations but are less than 1%. Cells may add to 99% or 101% due to rounding.

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Q2a: How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is the economy one of the most important issues, a very

important issue, a somewhat important issue or a less important issue?

One of the most

important Very

important Somewhat important

Less important

Don t know / Refused

Number of Cases

Likely Voters

32% 50% 16% 3% 0% 714

VA Region Northwest 31% 54% 12% 3% 0% 123 NOVA 29% 52% 16% 3% 0% 246 West 30% 45% 21% 1% 3% 135 South Central 37% 47% 13% 2% 1% 154 Tidewater 24% 59% 10% 7% 0% 180

Gender Male 35% 49% 12% 3% 1% 420 Female

24% 55% 18% 3% 0% 418

Age 18-34 26% 64% 7% 1% 2% 79 35-44 29% 54% 15% 2% 0% 74 45-64 37% 40% 19% 4% 0% 337 65 and over

24% 55% 16% 5% 0% 348


23% 58% 14% 4% 2% 159

Some college 31% 54% 13% 2% 0% 207 College graduate or more

34% 46% 17% 4% 0% 472

Family Income Under $50,000

24% 53% 17% 3% 2% 170

50K to under $100,000

36% 44% 17% 2% 0% 215

$100,000 or more

32% 49% 15% 4% 0% 292

Race White 29% 51% 16% 2% 1% 592 Minority

31% 53% 12% 5% 0% 246

Party ID Democrat 20% 58% 20% 3% 0% 256 Republican 42% 48% 8% 2% 0% 202 Independent 27% 51% 16% 5% 1% 362

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Q2b: How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is health care one of the most important issues, a very


One of the most

important Very


Less important


Number of Cases

Likely Voters

26% 44% 21% 9% 0% 714



31% 48% 17% 4% 0% 418

Age 18-34 24% 46% 24% 7% 0% 79 35-44 32% 41% 20% 7% 0% 74 45-64 30% 39% 19% 11% 0% 337 65 and over

25% 49% 20% 6% 0% 348


25% 54% 13% 9% 0% 159


26% 38% 27% 9% 0% 472


30% 49% 16% 5% 0% 170

50K to under $100,000

29% 43% 18% 10% 0% 215

$100,000 or more

26% 38% 25% 11% 0% 292


37% 51% 9% 4% 0% 246


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Q2c: How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is the coronavirus outbreak one of the most important

issues, a very important issue, a somewhat important issue or a less important issue?

One of the most

important Very


Less important


Number of Cases

Likely Voters

34% 32% 15% 18% 1% 714



33% 40% 18% 8% 0% 418

Age 18-34 26% 29% 23% 21% 2% 79 35-44 50% 26% 12% 12% 0% 74 45-64 34% 30% 15% 18% 3% 337 65 and over

29% 40% 19% 12% 0% 348


30% 31% 21% 15% 3% 159


37% 31% 13% 17% 1% 472


25% 40% 21% 13% 2% 170

50K to under $100,000

37% 25% 17% 18% 4% 215

$100,000 or more

36% 35% 11% 18% 0% 292


38% 35% 15% 10% 1% 246


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Q2d: How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is systemic racism one of the most important issues, a very


One of the most

important Very


Less important


Number of Cases

Likely Voters

21% 33% 21% 21% 4% 714



28% 38% 19% 11% 4% 418

Age 18-34 27% 35% 17% 19% 2% 79 35-44 35% 38% 9% 17% 0% 74 45-64 25% 33% 20% 21% 2% 337 65 and over

12% 34% 24% 21% 9% 348


21% 38% 18% 19% 4% 159


26% 32% 21% 19% 2% 472


25% 34% 16% 19% 6% 170

50K to under $100,000

24% 37% 19% 20% 1% 215

$100,000 or more

29% 30% 20% 21% 0% 292


34% 39% 15% 8% 3% 246


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Q2e: How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is police reform one of the most important issues, a very


One of the most

important Very


Less important


Number of Cases

Likely Voters

18% 38% 26% 18% 1% 714

VA Region Northwest 12% 35% 28% 25% 0% 123 NOVA 20% 44% 17% 19% 0% 246 West 22% 31% 21% 26% 1% 135 South Central 14% 38% 26% 20% 2% 154 Tidewater 17%

43% 27% 13% 1% 180


19% 47% 21% 12% 1% 418

Age 18-34 17% 38% 23% 21% 0% 79 35-44 18% 47% 17% 18% 0% 74 45-64 18% 36% 24% 22% 0% 337 65 and over

16% 41% 24% 17% 3% 348


13% 46% 21% 19% 1% 159


17% 35% 27% 21% 0% 472


19% 42% 16% 22% 1% 170

50K to under $100,000

16% 39% 20% 25% 0% 215

$100,000 or more

20% 34% 29% 17% 0% 292


28% 44% 17% 10% 1% 246


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Q2f: How important will each of the following be in your vote for president? Is immigration one of the most important issues, a very


One of the most

important Very


Less important


Number of Cases

Likely Voters

12% 43% 30% 14% 1% 714


36% 34% 17% 1% 180


15% 41% 29% 13% 2% 418

Age 18-34 8% 40% 39% 13% 0% 79 35-44 15% 38% 37% 10% 0% 74 45-64 13% 36% 28% 22% 2% 337 65 and over

12% 44% 26% 14% 4% 348


12% 32% 32% 21% 3% 159


12% 42% 29% 16% 1% 472


14% 38% 27% 20% 1% 170

50K to under $100,000

12% 35% 41% 12% 0% 215

$100,000 or more

12% 36% 33% 19% 1% 292


14% 43% 32% 9% 1% 246


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Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic? Do

you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove


Number of Cases

All Adults

29% 14% 10% 45% 4% 838


16% 13% 40% 6% 180


23% 11% 9% 53% 4% 418

Age 18-34 27% 17% 18% 38% 1% 79 35-44 21% 10% 18% 49% 2% 74 45-64 32% 13% 5% 47% 4% 337 65 and over

20% 14% 4% 46% 6% 348


39% 10% 14% 35% 3% 159


22% 14% 8% 52% 3% 472


33% 11% 14% 38% 3% 170

50K to under $100,000

32% 14% 9% 43% 2% 215

$100,000 or more

19% 14% 10% 55% 2% 292


15% 10% 17% 56% 3% 246


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Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is handling the government response to the coronavirus

pandemic? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove


Number of Cases

All Adults

31% 30% 10% 24% 5% 838

VA Region Northwest 24% 26% 7% 42% 1% 123 NOVA 33% 35% 12% 14% 6% 246 West 23% 28% 5% 39% 6% 135 South Central 33% 24% 15% 23% 5% 154 Tidewater

35% 33% 9% 18% 5% 180


31% 32% 9% 21% 7% 418

Age 18-34 18% 34% 16% 27% 5% 79 35-44 36% 23% 13% 19% 9% 74 45-64 36% 30% 6% 25% 4% 337 65 and over

33% 28% 10% 23% 5% 348


25% 25% 13% 29% 8% 159


36% 29% 11% 22% 3% 472


29% 21% 10% 29% 10% 170

50K to under $100,000

33% 32% 11% 23% 1% 215

$100,000 or more

36% 34% 8% 18% 3% 292


44% 31% 9% 11% 4% 246


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Q5: How much do you think the practice of wearing a mask helps to slow the spread of coronavirus in the U.S.? Is it helping a lot, helping a

little, not too much or not at all?

Helping a

lot Helping a

little Not helping too much

Not helping at all


Number of Cases

All Adults

50% 21% 9% 9% 2% 838


57% 23% 8% 6% 6% 180


63% 22% 6% 6% 3% 418

Age 18-34 42% 28% 12% 16% 3% 79 35-44 56% 29% 10% 5% 1% 74 45-64 64% 16% 9% 9% 2% 337 65 and over

74% 16% 6% 2% 2% 348


45% 29% 11% 11% 4% 159


71% 13% 10% 6% 1% 472


51% 27% 7% 15% 1% 170

50K to under $100,000

63% 12% 15% 9% 1% 215

$100,000 or more

70% 15% 8% 7% 1% 292


66% 18% 6% 7% 4% 246


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Q6: Which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither is exactly right?

Blacks in the U.S. are treated as fairly as

whites Changes need to be

made Don’t

know/Refused Number of

Cases All Adults

35% 59% 7% 838

VA Region Northwest 37% 56% 7% 123 NOVA 29% 65% 6% 246 West 49% 45% 6% 135 South Central 40% 52% 7% 154 Tidewater

24% 67% 9% 180

Gender Male 41% 53% 7% 420 Female

28% 64% 8% 418

Age 18-34 44% 53% 3% 79 35-44 28% 68% 4% 74 45-64 33% 60% 7% 337 65 and over

30% 58% 12% 348


46% 49% 5% 159

Some college 32% 57% 11% 207 College graduate or more

27% 67% 6% 472


42% 51% 7% 170

50K to under $100,000

35% 62% 3% 215

$100,000 or more

28% 70% 2% 292

Race White 41% 51% 7% 592 Minority

22% 71% 7% 246

Party ID Democrat 4% 93% 3% 256 Republican 63% 31% 6% 202 Independent 40% 52% 8% 362

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Q7: Although some monuments have been removed recently, thinking about the remaining monuments to Confederate figures in Virginia,

which of the following courses of action do you favor?

Leave them in

place Add

context Relocate to museums

Remove all together


Number of Cases

All Adults

32% 15% 38% 14% 2% 838


27% 15% 34% 22% 2% 180


28% 15% 43% 13% 1% 418

Age 18-34 32% 11% 43% 13% 0% 79 35-44 25% 19% 31% 24% 1% 74 45-64 30% 16% 39% 14% 2% 337 65 and over

36% 18% 33% 9% 3% 348


43% 9% 36% 11% 1% 159


26% 18% 37% 17% 1% 472


43% 10% 38% 9% 0% 170

50K to under $100,000

32% 16% 40% 12% 1% 215

$100,000 or more

24% 18% 40% 17% 1% 292


22% 12% 40% 26% 1% 246

Party ID Democrat 6% 11% 52% 29% 1% 256 Republican 60% 17% 20% 3% 0% 202 Independent 34%

17% 39% 9% 2% 362

Perception of treatment of Blacks vs. whites

As fairly 65% 17% 14% 3% 1% 236 Need changes 11% 15% 54% 20% 1% 533

july 2020 commonwealth poll€¦ · 07-07-2020 · richmond, va. (july 30, 2020) -- president...

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