july 2016 analog ic dynamics & directions · chassis & safety: adas 6. m2m modules 7....

© 2015 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ANALOG IC DYNAMICS & DIRECTIONS SEMICON WEST

JULY 2016

Dale Ford, Vice President & Chief Analyst


• Five year CAGR = 2.0% • Industrial Electronics leads growth followed by Automotive, Wired & Consumer Electronics • Industrial Electronics passed Data Processing as largest market in 2012; Wireless followed in 2013

10.3%

7.3% 7.9% 5.8%

2.5%

-8.7%

13.3%

7.6%

3.7% 4.0% 4.2%

1.4% 0.1%

2.5% 3.2% 1.9% 2.4%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year

-on-

Year

Gro

wth

Electronic systems market – Growth flattens in 2016

Global Electronic Systems Revenue 2015 WW Revenue = $2.05 T

2

Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q2 2016

Analog IC Dynamics & Directions


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’15

to ‘2

0

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer Wired

Data Processing

3

Electronics growth weighed down by Wireless & Data Processing




Semiconductor market growth – 2015

Category 2015 Growth

Total Semiconductor -2.0%

Total ICs -1.7%

Memory ICs -2.3%

DRAM -2.5%

SRAM -14.8%

NOR Flash -14.9%

Data Flash -0.3%

Microcomponent ICs -4.9%

MPU -5.7%

MCU -3.0%

DSP -2.8%

Category 2015 Growth

Logic ICs -1.0%

General Purpose Logic -8.2%

ASIC/ASSP Logic 0.2%

Analog ICs 2.4% General Purpose Analog -1.0% ASIC/ASSP Analog 4.4% Discrete -6.7%

Optical -2.5%

Image Sensors 0.0%

LEDs -4.3%

Sensor/Actuators 1.5%

4



23.6%

4.1%

10.3%

3.9%

-5.1%

-10.9%

34.1%

1.3%

-2.5%

6.4% 8.3%

-2.0% -4.5%

2.5% 3.6% 4.3% 3.8%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Year

-on-

Year

Gro

wth

Annual semiconductor outlook

Global Semiconductor Revenue 2015 Revenue = $347.3B


• Semiconductor market growth outlook – Next four years challenging • September 2012 began a new cycle that peaked in Q4 2014 – 2015/16 contracts • Long-term outlook sees five-year CAGR of only 1.9%

5



Q1 ‘15 slumps to -9.0%; Q1 ’16 almost as bad at -8.6% Rest of year disappoints Quarterly semiconductor forecast


6



2016 Growth – Weak and Negative


7



Historic alignment between economy and electronics Semiconductor growth profile continues to predict accurately

Source – IHS Global Insight and IHS Technology

8



Historical 12 month moving average

Source – WSTS

PC Multimedia PC WWW Mobile Phone / Mobile PC

GUI PC Consumer Electronics

Economy

9



Current cycle weaker than most but longest sustained Annual growth peaked in November 2014

Source – WSTS 10



Long-term growth trends

Source – WSTS

11



New semiconductor growth drivers for next 5 years

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’15

to ‘2

0

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer

Wired

Data Processing

12




Share of analog IC revenues by market

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Data Processing Wired Wireless Consumer Automotive Industrial

2000201020152020

13



Analog IC growth drivers for next 5 years

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’15

to ‘2

0

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer

Wired

Data Processing

14




Analog IC markets – Top size & growth

Top 10 Revenue - 2020 1. Enterprise Ethernet Switches & Routers 2. Powertrain 3. High-Tier Smartphone 4. Mid-Tier Smartphone 5. Automation 6. Other Wireless Communications 7. Infotainment: Other 8. Chassis & Safety: Other 9. Medical Electronics 10. Building & Home Control

Top 10 Growth 2015-2020 1. UHD OLED TV

2. Smart Watches & Glasses

3. 3D Printers - Commercial/Industrial 4. UHD LCD TV

5. Chassis & Safety: ADAS

6. M2M Modules

7. Infotainment: Connectivity & Telematics

8. Tablet PCs - Screen Size => 9” 9. Fitness & Wellness Wearable Electronics

10. Building & Home Control

15



General purpose analog IC growth drivers for next 5 years

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’15

to ‘2

0

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer

Wired

Data Processing

16




Application Specific Analog IC growth drivers for next 5 years

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’15

to ‘2

0

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer

Wired

Data Processing

17




2015 semiconductor market share for top 20 suppliers Plus results from major announced acquisitions expected to close in H1 2016

18

* Includes 2015 Acquisitions AND announced acquisitions for 2016 Source – IHS Competitive Landscaping Tool Q1 2016

Top Suppliers of Semiconductors Worldwide - Millions of Dollars2014 2015 2014 2015 Percent Percent CumulativeRank Rank COMPANY NAME Revenue Revenue Change of Total Percentage

1 1 Intel* 49,964 51,420 2.9% 14.8% 14.8%

2 2 Samsung Electronics 37,093 40,156 8.3% 11.6% 26.4%

4 3 SK Hynix 16,113 16,502 2.4% 4.8% 31.1%

3 4 Qualcomm* 19,291 16,496 -14.5% 4.8% 35.9%

14 5 Avago Technologies** + Broadcom** 14,049 15,308 9.0% 4.4% 40.3%

5 6 Micron Technology 16,110 14,080 -12.6% 4.1% 44.3%

6 7 Texas Instruments 12,246 12,258 0.1% 3.5% 47.9%

15 8 NXP* 5,483 9,721 77.3% 2.8% 50.7%

7 9 Toshiba 10,234 8,833 -13.7% 2.5% 53.2%

9 10 STMicroelectronics 7,404 6,897 -6.8% 2.0% 55.2%

13 11 Infineon Technologies* 5,937 6,813 14.8% 2.0% 57.2%

10 12 MediaTek 7,016 6,654 -5.2% 1.9% 59.1%

23 13 Apple 2,985 6,059 103.0% 1.7% 60.8%

11 14 Renesas Electronics Corporation 6,815 5,694 -16.4% 1.6% 62.5%

17 15 Sony 5,053 5,341 5.7% 1.5% 64.0%

12 16 SanDisk 6,264 4,982 -20.5% 1.4% 65.4%

21 17 ON Semiconductor** + Fairchild Semiconductor** 4,934 4,833 -2.0% 1.4% 66.8%

19 18 nVidia 4,109 4,396 7.0% 1.3% 68.1%

16 19 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 5,388 3,917 -27.3% 1.1% 69.2%

22 20 Analog Devices 3,094 3,433 11.0% 1.0% 70.2%

All Others 114,702 103,473 -9.8% 29.8% 100.0%

Total Semiconductor 354,284 347,266 -2.0% 100.0%



All M&A, spinouts, joint ventures, business line sales and other financial transactions by type

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EXIT

BIZ SALE

SPIN

M&A

19



Combined market shares of top semiconductor suppliers

20

Source – IHS Competitive Landscaping Tool Q1 2016



Combined market shares of top five semiconductor suppliers in each market segment

21




Combined market shares of top five semiconductor suppliers in each market segment

22




2015 Surprises #10 Apple Dual Sourced their Application Processor Chips

#9 IoT Cybersecurity and Virtualized & Cloud Security Take Center Stage

#8 Google Bets Big On Solar Power

#7 Technical Leaps Propel Powerful Drone Launch

#6 Facebook’s Transformation into a Mobile Monetization Machine

#5 Major Companies Make Big Investments in Artificial Intelligence

#4 China Goes Global in Component Manufacturing

#3 Flexible Displays Make Paradigm Shift On Form Factor

#2 Extending Global Connectivity

#1 Paving the Way to the Autonomous Car

23



2016 Predictions

24



2016 Predictions

25


© 2015 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 26

Top Ten Transformational Technologies . . . And More

1) Internet of Things 2) Cloud Computing / Big Data 3) 3D Printing 4) Energy Storage / Advanced

Battery Technology 5) Graphene 6) Advanced User Interfaces 7) Sensors of all Types 8) Flexible Displays 9) Biometrics for Security / Health 10) Artificial Intelligence

• Encryption & Security • Carrier Aggregation • Wireless Charging • Virtual Reality • Biomedical Technology • HEVC • High Resolution Displays • LTE Direct • “Smart” Extensions • Quantum Computing • Visible Light Communications

CURRENT IHS TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH COVERAGE



The developing technology triumvirate

27

IoT

5G Cloud Waves of Amplified Growth



ANALOG IC DYNAMICS & DIRECTIONS SEMICON WEST

JULY 2016

Dale Ford, Vice President & Chief Analyst

july 2016 analog ic dynamics & directions · chassis & safety: adas 6. m2m modules 7....

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