july 2012 edition purplepoll - purple strategies
TRANSCRIPT
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012 Edition
WHY THE PURPLEPOLL?In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama
is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated
regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election.
The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased and cutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print,
and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including: MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico, the National Review and dozens of others. And we will continue to
bring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond.
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]]
or Bruce Haynes [[email protected]], at 703-548-7877.
To subscribe, e-mail us at [email protected].
PURPLE INSIGHTS
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
Obama JobApprove: 46% Disapprove: 49% Not sure: 4%
Direction of the EconomyGetting Better: 28% Getting Worse: 42%Staying about the same: 29%Not sure: 1%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 47% Romney: 45%Not sure: 8%
Last heard something new about ObamaIn the last several days: 43%In the last week: 17%A few weeks ago: 12%Over a month ago: 15%Not sure: 13%
Last heard something new about RomneyIn the last several days: 43%In the last week: 19%A few weeks ago: 16%Over a month ago: 10%Not sure: 12%
Closer to your view:Obama is unable improve the economy: 46%Romney couldn’t do a better job improving the economy: 45%Not sure: 9%
Closer to your view:Obama is a failure as president: 44%Romney is too out of touch to be president: 44%Not sure: 12%
Hearing something new about Obama made you…More favorable: 33%Less favorable: 40%No impact: 25%Not sure: 1%
Hearing something new about Romney made you…More favorable: 26%Less favorable: 38% No impact: 34%Not sure: 2%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 41%Unfavorable: 49%Not sure: 10%
OVERALL:
�PURPLE OVERALL
WHAT IS THE PURPLEPOLL?Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states have swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012.
Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election.
In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. We also include statewide results for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm.
Fielded 7/9-7/13, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2412 likely voters, margin of error +/-1.6. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600 per state.
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIESPurple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative.
Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.
For more: www.purplestrategies.com
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
Obama maintains a steady lead in Purple States, but continues to fall short of a majority. Voters’ views about the economy are the strongest predictors of their vote choice – even more so than partisanship.
In our latest poll, we see no shift in President Obama’s performance against Mitt Romney. Today, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45% across the Purple States, the same 2-point lead as in June (48% to 46%).
The race is also steady among independents across these states. Romney retains a 5-point lead among this key swing constituency (47% to 42%), essentially unchanged from his 6-point lead in June. The gender gap also continues: Romney leads by 8 points among men (50% to 42%), while Obama leads by 11 among women (52% to 41%).
Voters’ concerns about the economy continue to loom large, and their outlook is becoming gloomier. Just 28% of voters believe that the economy is getting better, a decline of 8 points from April. Forty-two percent (42%) believe that the economy is getting worse, up 7 points from April.
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877. �PURPLE ANALYSIS
Romney improves across Purple States and leads in Ohio and Florida; Obama still leads in Purple Ameri-ca, Virginia and Colorado.
The impact of voters’ perception of the economy on their presidential choice is dramatic. Among those who believe the economy is getting better, 93% support Obama, 4% favor Romney. And among those who say it is getting worse, Romney leads Obama 84% to 7%.
Indeed, this question is now more predictive of vote choice than any other question we ask – including partisanship.
Purple Predictor States: Ohio swings back to Obama, Romney leads in Florida, and Colorado and Virginia remain as tight as can be.
Ohio has moved from one side to the other and back in our recent polling. In April, we showed President Obama with a 5-point lead. Last month, Mitt Romney held a 3-point lead. And today, we show President Obama taking a 3-point lead in this critical state (48% to 45%). This edge is fueled by independents, among whom he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%), as well as women (52% to 40%).
Importantly, Romney’s favorability level is low in Ohio – 37% have a favorable view, while a majority (50%) has an unfavorable view. President Obama’s job performance is also underwater there (46% positive/49% negative), but not to the same extent as Romney’s personal image.
Mitt Romney maintains a small but steady advantage in Florida, currently holding a 3-point lead over President Obama. He leads by a substantial margin among independents (51% to 41%). In all four Purple States we have singled out, a gender gap exists, showing up most strongly in Ohio. Not surprisingly, Obama comes out on top in Ohio and Virginia where his margin among women is higher than his deficit among men (it is even in Colorado), and Romney enjoys a robust advantage among male voters in Florida for the time being (54% to 37%).
Virginia – considered critical to both the Romney and Obama campaign – tilts slightly toward Obama at this stage (46% to 44%). Obama also has the slightest edge in Colorado (45% to 44%). Importantly, independent voters in both states lean toward Romney by 6 points. Clearly, these Purple Predictor States remain up for grabs.
The content of negative messaging from the campaigns divides Purple State voters evenly between the candidates.
With the campaign taking a turn for the negative over the past week, we tested which of the attacks is better able to attract voters. We asked voters whether they agreed more with the Romney attack that President Obama is a failure for his inability to create jobs or reduce the deficit, or with the Obama attack that because Romney outsourced American jobs while holding millions in offshore accounts, Romney is too out of touch (see p. 11 for exact wording).
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLL
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
July 2012
Across Purple States, voters are evenly divided: 44% side with each. Among independents, Romney’s argument has a 5-point advantage, 47% to 42%. In the Purple Predictor States, Obama’s argument has a slight advantage in Colorado (+1), Virginia (+2), and Ohio (+1), while Romney’s argument carries the day in Florida (+9).
As the negative messages accelerate and voters learn more, we will continue to explore how voters are receiving this information, and the implications that it will have for their eventual voting decisions.
At the same time, the impact of the total negative information flow indicates an advantage for Obama.
Voters claim to be receiving new information about the candidates on a regular basis. Sixty percent (60%) of Purple State voters say they have heard new information about Obama within the past week, compared to 62% for Romney.
Importantly, that new information is largely negative – for both candidates. Forty percent (40%) say new information is making them less favorable towards Obama, while 38% say the same about Romney. However, Obama ekes out a 7-point advantage on the percent saying the new information is making them more favorable (33% to Romney’s 26%). Considering that both candidates are underwater, though, neither candidate is winning the information fight.
Whether they’ve heard news about Obama or Romney, undecided voters are unmoved. Forty-two percent (42%) of them say the news they heard had no impact on their view of Obama, and 43% say the same about Romney. While there is a higher percentage of undecided voters saying the news has made them less favorable towards Obama (41%), Romney is underwater as well, with enough undecideds to tip the scale who are unsure of what to make of the information they’re hearing (11%).
Obama is Apple and the family dog, Romney is BMW and Microsoft. But who’s the snake?
To get a different perspective on voters’ beliefs about the candidates, we asked them to decide which candidate seemed more like a particular company or animal from respective lists.
We asked about two leading technology companies: Microsoft and Apple. By an 8-point margin, Purple State voters associate President Obama with Apple. By contrast, voters associated Romney with Microsoft by a 7-point margin.
Governor Romney was far more likely to be associated with BMW than President Obama (by 23 points). Not surprisingly, given the auto bailout, President Obama is more closely related to GM (by 33 points).
President Obama’s athletic streak showed through when voters were asked about Nike: by 16 points, they believe he is more like Nike than Romney.
Purple State voters are more evenly divided about which candidate more closely resembles common ani-mals. President Obama is seen as closer to the fam-ily dog (by 4 points), but independent voters connect Romney by 5 points. Obama is closer to a cat.
But which candidate is the snake? It’s a split deci-sion. Overall, Purple State voters believe that Romney is more like a snake by a small 2-point margin. But there’s a 9-point swing among independents, who be-lieve that President Obama is the snake in the race (by 7 points). With months of negative ads ahead of us, there’s plenty of room for movement on both sides.
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
VirginiaColorado
�PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES
Obama JobApprove: 45% Disapprove: 51% Not sure: 4%
Obama JobApprove: 45% Disapprove: 50% Not sure: 5%
Direction of the EconomyGetting Better: 30% Getting Worse: 42%Staying about the same: 27%Not sure: 1%
Direction of the EconomyGetting Better: 30% Getting Worse: 41%Staying about the same: 27%Not sure: 2%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 45% Romney: 44%Not sure: 11%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 46% Romney: 44%Not sure: 10%
Last heard something new about ObamaIn the last several days: 41%In the last week: 16%A few weeks ago: 15%Over a month ago: 18%Not sure: 10%
Last heard something new about ObamaIn the last several days: 41%In the last week: 18%A few weeks ago: 14%Over a month ago: 15%Not sure: 11%
Last heard something new about RomneyIn the last several days: 49%In the last week: 15%A few weeks ago: 15%Over a month ago: 12%Not sure: 9%
Last heard something new about RomneyIn the last several days: 45%In the last week: 16%A few weeks ago: 16%Over a month ago: 11%Not sure: 12%
Closer to your view:Obama is unable improve the economy: 46%Romney couldn’t do a better job improving the economy: 45%Not sure: 8%
Closer to your view:Obama is unable improve the economy: 47%Romney couldn’t do a better job improving the economy: 43%Not sure: 10%
Closer to your view:Obama is a failure as president: 44%Romney is too out of touch to be president: 45%Not sure: 12%
Closer to your view:Obama is a failure as president: 42%Romney is too out of touch to be president: 44%Not sure: 14%
Hearing something new about Obama made you…More favorable: 31%Less favorable: 42%No impact: 25%Not sure: 1%
Hearing something new about Obama made you…More favorable: 31%Less favorable: 39%No impact: 28%Not sure: 3%
Hearing something new about Romney made you…More favorable: 23%Less favorable: 42%No impact: 34%Not sure: 1%
Hearing something new about Romney made you…More favorable: 27%Less favorable: 37%No impact: 33%Not sure: 3%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 37%Unfavorable: 55%Not sure: 9%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 41%Unfavorable: 49%Not sure: 11%
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Ohio Florida
�PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES
Obama JobApprove: 46% Disapprove: 49% Not sure: 5%
Direction of the EconomyGetting Better: 33% Getting Worse: 39%Staying about the same: 26%Not sure: 2%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 48% Romney: 45%Not sure: 7%
Last heard something new about ObamaIn the last several days: 48%In the last week: 18%A few weeks ago: 10%Over a month ago: 14%Not sure: 10%
Last heard something new about RomneyIn the last several days: 44%In the last week: 20%A few weeks ago: 15%Over a month ago: 10%Not sure: 11%
Closer to your view:Obama is unable improve the economy: 45%Romney couldn’t do a better job improving the economy: 46%Not sure: 9%
Closer to your view:Obama is a failure as president: 45%Romney is too out of touch to be president: 46%Not sure: 9%
Hearing something new about Obama made you…More favorable: 31%Less favorable: 40%No impact: 28%Not sure: 1%
Hearing something new about Romney made you…More favorable: 22%Less favorable: 38%No impact: 38%Not sure: 2%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 37%Unfavorable: 50%Not sure: 13%
Obama JobApprove: 43% Disapprove: 54% Not sure: 3%
Direction of the EconomyGetting Better: 29% Getting Worse: 46%Staying about the same: 24% Not sure: 2%
Obama vs. RomneyObama: 45% Romney: 48%Not sure: 7%
Last heard something new about ObamaIn the last several days: 48%In the last week: 17%A few weeks ago: 10%Over a month ago: 14%Not sure: 10%
Last heard something new about RomneyIn the last several days: 46%In the last week: 19%A few weeks ago: 15%Over a month ago: 11%Not sure: 8%
Closer to your view:Obama is unable improve the economy: 50%Romney couldn’t do a better job improving the economy: 40%Not sure: 10%
Closer to your view:Obama is a failure as president: 50%Romney is too out of touch to be president: 41%Not sure: 9%
Hearing something new about Obama made you…More favorable: 32%Less favorable: 44%No impact: 22%Not sure: 2%
Hearing something new about Romney made you…More favorable: 32%Less favorable: 33%No impact: 34%Not sure: 1%
Romney FavorabilityFavorable: 47%Unfavorable: 46%Not sure: 6%
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, VirginiaPURPLE TRACKING
�PURPLE OVERALL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb. ‘11 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 July ‘12
36%
37%
35% 35%
36%39% 42%
28%
Getting Better
Getting Worse
Same
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sep. ‘11 Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12 Feb. ‘12 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 Jun. ‘12 July ‘12
53% 53%
41% 41% 41%45% 44% 46% 47%
50% 50% 50% 48%
47%
49%
46%
49%52%
Disapprove
Approve
Not Sure
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% 57% 56%
48%54%
47%45%39%
27%29%
38%
49%
39%
49%
41%
30%29%30%32%Unfavorable
Favorable
Not Sure
Sep. ‘11 Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12 Feb. ‘12 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 Jun. ‘12 July ‘12 Sep. ‘11 Nov. ‘11 Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12 Feb. ‘12 Mar. ‘12 Apr. ‘12 Jun. ‘12 July ‘12
Mitt Romney
Barack Obama
Not Sure
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% 46%
43% 43% 44% 44% 44%43%
46%45%
46% 45%45%
47% 47% 47%48% 48% 48%
Direction of Economy Obama Job Approval
Romney Favorability Obama vs. Romney
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
�PURPLE JULY 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
Last heard something new
about Obama
Hearingsomething new about
Obama made you…
Sep‘11
Gender Party Education
Not sure
Not sure
Not sure
Disapprove
Unfavorable
Romney
Approve
Favorable
Obama
Getting better
More favorable
In the last several days
Getting worse
Less favorable
In the last week
Staying about the same
No impact
A few weeks ago
Not sure
Not sure
Over a month agoNot sure
%%% % % % % % %
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is
doing as president?
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of
Mitt Romney?
Obama v. Romney
Direction of theEconomy
Fielded 7/9-7/13, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2412 likely voters, margin of error +/- 1.6. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600 per state.
July 2012 Main Questionnaire Region By State
Male Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non-CollDec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11Jan’12Feb’12April’12June’12Total Mar’12
46
49
4
44
51
4
52
44
4
45
50
5
45
52
4
45
51
4
45
50
5
46
49
5
43
54
3
41
55
4
50
45
5
10
87
3
40
54
6
86
10
4
44
51
4
48
48
4
47
49
4
47
48
5
46
50
4
44
50
6
45
50
6
41
53
6
41
52
6
41
53
7
41
49
10
40
49
11
39
52
9
38
49
13
45
47
8
37
55
9
41
49
11
37
50
13
47
46
6
47
45
8
37
52
12
77
14
9
42
47
11
11
81
9
43
47
10
41
50
9
39
49
12
38
48
15
29
56
14
27
57
16
30
54
16
29
47
24
30
45
25
32
39
29
47
45
8
44
47
9
51
43
6
47
45
8
46
47
7
45
44
11
46
44
10
48
45
7
45
48
7
42
50
8
52
41
7
9
85
6
42
47
11
87
8
5
46
48
7
49
44
7
48
46
7
48
44
8
48
44
8
47
43
10
46
44
10
47
43
11
45
45
11
43
46
11
28
42
29
1
26
46
27
1
33
34
32
1
27
43
29
1
29
44
26
2
30
42
27
1
30
41
27
2
33
39
26
2
29
46
24
2
26
45
28
1
29
39
30
2
7
70
22
1
23
46
29
1
52
12
34
2
25
44
29
2
31
39
29
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
36
35
28
1
39
35
24
1
36
37
26
1
33
40
25
1
32
44
23
2
36
40
24
1
33
40
26
1
34
41
24
1
31
42
25
1
31
39
28
3
31
40
28
1
32
44
22
2
27
46
26
1
37
36
25
2
7
70
22
1
26
44
28
1
64
9
25
2
32
42
25
1
33
40
26
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
43
17
12
15
13
42
14
14
20
11
50
16
10
13
11
46
16
12
14
11
43
18
13
13
13
41
16
15
18
10
41
18
14
15
11
48
18
10
14
10
48
17
10
14
10
44
16
14
16
10
42
18
11
13
15
39
14
13
20
14
40
19
13
15
12
50
18
11
9
13
40
17
13
14
16
47
16
12
15
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
�PURPLE JULY 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
Last heard something new about Romney
Hearingsomething new about Romney made you…
Sep‘11
Gender Party Education
More favorable
In the last several days
Obama is unable improve the economy
Obama is a failure as president
Romney couldn’t do a better job improving the economy
Romney is too out of touch to be president
Less favorable
In the last week
No impact
A few weeks ago
Not sure
Not sure
Not sure
Over a month agoNot sure
%%% % % % % % %
Fielded 7/9-7/13, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2412 likely voters, margin of error +/- 1.6. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600 per state.
July 2012 Main Questionnaire Region By State
Male Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non-CollDec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11Jan’12Feb’12April’12June’12Total Mar’12
43
19
16
10
12
45
17
16
12
10
45
19
14
11
12
43
21
15
10
11
44
18
16
12
11
49
15
15
12
9
45
16
16
11
12
44
20
15
10
11
46
19
15
11
8
47
19
14
11
10
41
19
17
10
14
43
20
17
9
11
45
20
16
10
9
43
17
13
11
16
39
20
16
9
16
49
18
16
11
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
26
38
34
2
25
37
36
1
24
40
34
2
23
38
36
3
29
35
33
3
23
42
34
1
27
37
33
3
22
38
38
2
32
33
34
1
30
35
33
1
23
40
34
3
52
10
36
2
24
36
38
2
7
64
27
2
28
36
34
2
25
40
33
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
46
45
9
49
44
8
42
51
7
47
46
7
49
42
10
46
45
8
47
43
10
45
46
9
50
40
10
51
41
8
42
48
10
76
13
11
49
43
8
17
76
7
48
42
10
44
49
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
44
44
12
47
41
12
42
46
12
45
45
11
46
42
14
44
45
12
42
44
14
45
46
9
50
41
9
49
39
12
40
48
12
79
10
11
47
42
11
10
78
12
46
42
12
44
46
10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Closerto your view:
Closerto your view:
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
�PURPLE JULY 2012 STATE RESULTS
Staying about the same
Getting Worse
Wrong track
Getting Better
Obama vs. Romney
Directionof the
Economy
48
48
5
45
51
4
42
50
7
37
55
9
48
46
5
45
44
11
-
-
-
-
30
42
27
1
43
53
4
36
51
14
47
47
6
37
35
26
1
39
57
4
43
49
8
40
52
9
27
48
25
0
49
47
4
32
59
9
50
38
12
32
37
29
2
9
87
3
72
22
6
11
81
8
6
70
23
1
40
55
5
36
55
9
39
45
16
25
45
30
0
85
14
1
7
85
8
87
8
4
60
11
28
1
41
55
5
35
52
13
41
48
11
25
40
33
1
48
49
3
39
56
5
49
42
9
33
42
24
1
Gender Party Education
Not sure
Not sure
Not Sure
Disapprove
Unfavorable
Romney
Approve
Favorable
Obama
%%%
Obama Job
Romney Favorability
COLORADOMale Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non- CollApril’12June’12Total
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Staying about the same
Getting Worse
Wrong track
Getting Better
Obama vs. Romney
Directionof the
Economy
43
52
5
46
49
5
38
48
13
37
50
13
45
48
8
48
45
7
-
-
-
-
33
39
26
2
47
47
5
34
54
12
49
44
7
36
34
29
0
43
52
5
43
42
15
43
51
7
29
41
29
1
48
47
5
32
56
12
52
40
8
36
38
24
2
9
86
5
68
14
18
10
85
5
11
66
23
1
44
48
8
32
53
15
47
40
13
33
40
26
2
87
10
3
10
84
6
89
6
5
58
12
29
2
45
49
6
38
48
14
47
45
8
34
38
27
1
47
50
3
38
49
13
48
46
6
29
44
24
3
Gender Party Education
Not sure
Not sure
Not Sure
Disapprove
Unfavorable
Romney
Approve
Favorable
Obama
%%%
Obama Job
Romney Favorability
OHIOMale Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non- CollApril’12June’12Total
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Staying about the same
Getting Worse
Wrong track
Getting Better
Obama vs. Romney
Directionof the
Economy
45
51
5
45
50
5
43
49
8
41
49
11
49
46
5
46
44
10
-
-
-
-
30
41
27
2
45
50
6
36
48
16
48
46
6
39
35
25
1
41
56
3
47
46
7
40
50
10
31
43
24
2
49
44
7
35
52
13
51
39
9
29
39
30
3
16
82
2
78
17
5
9
87
4
10
62
26
2
40
54
5
39
46
15
39
45
16
25
47
26
2
79
15
6
11
79
10
87
9
4
53
15
31
2
46
50
4
41
48
11
46
45
9
26
45
27
3
44
49
6
41
49
10
46
46
8
32
37
30
2
Gender Party Education
Not sure
Not sure
Not Sure
Disapprove
Unfavorable
Romney
Approve
Favorable
Obama
%%%
Obama Job
Romney Favorability
VIRGINIAMale Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non- CollApril’12June’12Total
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Staying about the same
Getting Worse
Wrong track
Getting Better
Obama vs. Romney
Directionof the
Economy
45
50
5
43
54
3
43
47
11
47
46
6
45
49
6
45
48
7
-
-
-
-
29
46
24
2
46
50
4
45
44
12
45
47
7
33
38
28
1
35
62
3
53
41
5
37
54
9
26
50
23
2
49
47
3
43
50
7
51
44
5
31
42
25
2
15
84
1
76
19
5
14
80
6
10
69
20
0
36
60
4
48
45
7
41
51
8
25
50
23
3
82
14
4
14
79
7
83
12
5
55
16
28
1
42
56
2
50
45
5
43
51
6
25
48
24
2
44
53
3
47
46
7
45
48
7
32
45
22
1
Gender Party Education
Not sure
Not sure
Not Sure
Disapprove
Unfavorable
Romney
Approve
Favorable
Obama
%%%
Obama Job
Romney Favorability
FLORIDAMale Female GOP Ind Dem Coll+Non- CollApril’12June’12Total
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
�PURPLE JULY 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? 1) Approve 2) Disapprove 3) Not sure
2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? 1) Favorable 2) Unfavorable 3) Not sure
3. If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? 1) Barack Obama 2) Mitt Romney 3) Not sure
4. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same? 1) Getting better 2) Getting worse 3) Staying about the same 4) Not sure
5. When was the last time you heard something new about Barack Obama? 1) In the last several days 2) In the last week 3) A few weeks ago 4) Over a month ago or longer 5) Not sure
6. Did what you heard most recently about Barack Obama make you more favorable, less favorable, or have no impact on your view of Barack Obama? 1) More favorable 2) Less favorable 3) No impact 4) Not sure
7. When was the last time you heard something new about Mitt Romney? 1) In the last several days 2) In the last week 3) A few weeks ago 4) Over a month ago ago or longer 5) Not sure
8. Did what you heard most recently about Mitt Romney make you more favorable, less favorable, or have no impact on your view of Mitt Romney? 1) More favorable 2) Less favorable 3) No impact 4) Not sure
9. Which of the following statements comes closer to your view? 1) You have given up thinking that Barack Obama is going to be able to improve the economy 2) You don’t think that Mitt Romney could do a better job improving the economy than Barack Obama. 3) Not sure
10. Which of the following statements comes closer to your view? 1) I won’t vote for Barack Obama because he can’t create jobs, improve our economy or reduce the deficit, and his health care law is all wrong. He’s a failure as president. 2) I won’t vote for Mitt Romney because as CEO of Bain Capital he got rich outsourcing American jobs to China and India while putting his millions in offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands. He’s too out of touch to be president. 3) Not sure
July 2012 Main Questionnaire
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
*slight differences due to rounding
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
0 0
22 21
55 53
41 39
45 43
33 31
46 47
22 26
33 35
29 31
40 46
OVERALL
�PURPLE DESCRIPTOR TRACKING RESULTS
Which candidate seems more like that company, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
23
33
8
16
7
ADV.*
26
27
4
11
16
ADV.* INDEPENDENTS
SUBSCRIBE TO PURPLEPOLL [email protected]
PURPLEPOLLJuly 2012
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
*slight differences due to rounding
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
0 0
42 45
42 38
41 44
42 47
38 36
41 37
38 43
34 31
45 40
38 38
OVERALL
�PURPLE DESCRIPTOR TRACKING RESULTS
Which candidate seems more like that animal, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
the FOX
the CAT
the FAMILY DOG
the SNAKE
the LION
2
4
7
2
1
ADV.*
8
5
13
7
2
ADV.* INDEPENDENTS