julian r - climate change and bean production
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Climate change and bean productionJulian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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• What climate change?• Sensitivity of beans?• Modelling crop suitability impacts• Breeding priorities• Way forward: modelling crop processes• Where are the traits?
Outline
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What climate change?
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Emissions from agricultureExcluding land-use [Mt CO2-eq]
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
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Impacts on agriculture• By 2100, novel climates could happen in 10-48% of the earth
(Williams et al. 2007)• Climate change is predicted to decrease agricultural yields (many
authors), with major impacts in the DW (many authors)
Source: Lobell et al., 2008
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Climate Predictions
• Global Circulation Models
… to produce future predictions based upon historical observations…
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Climate Predictions
• Climate is very hard to model
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Climate model skill
• Climate model skill (CMIP3)1961-1990 Rainfall 1961-1990 Temperature
Source: Ramirez and Challinor, in prep.
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Climate model skill
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Sensitivity of beans
Courtesy: S. Beebe
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Sensitivities
• Drought: less biomass (optimal 300-500 mm)• Waterlogging: Root rotting• High temperatures
Konsens et al. 1991
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Sensitivities
• CO2 response
340 ppm
3,000 ppm
500 ppm
Jolliffe & Ehret (1985)
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Sensitivities
• CO2 and HTS– CO2: increases biomass– HTS (temperature)– HTS (timing)– HTS (duration)
• Pests and diseases– In dry areas– In humid areas
Vara-Prasad et al. 2002
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Common Bean
VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
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Modelling changes in crop suitability
It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
• EcoCrop: how does it work?
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Common Bean Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 13.55
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 17.45
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.05
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 25.63
Growing season (days) 90
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 200.0
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 362.5
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 449.5
Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 710.0
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Common Bean Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
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Lima Bean
VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
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Lima Bean Current Suitability and Presence
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Lima Bean Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
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Impacts
Lima bean Common bean
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Breeding priorities (water)
Common beanLima bean
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Breeding priorities (temperature)
Common beanLima bean
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Way forward: modelling crop processes
• Phenology• Water balance• TDS + DS + HTS• CO2 fertilisation
• Nutrient balance?• Pests and diseases?
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Designing ideotypes
• Evaluate the effects of these traits using crop models– A faster and efficient rooting system– Higher transpiration efficiency– Higher harvest index– Tolerance to water/temperature stresses
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Where to look for those (abiotic) traits?
vulgaris
dumosus
vulgaris
lunatus
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Where to look for those traits?
CONSERVEDEX-SITU
POTENTIAL
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From ~260,000 accessions, only 4,453 are wild
From 85 taxa, 35 are not in any genebank, and 26 have <10 accessions...
Source: Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2010)
But as we know, they’re not well conserved
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Summary
• More conservation? Not a surprise• Heat and drought tolerance for both crops,
but heat more intensely for Lima beans, whereas drought more intensely for dry beans
• Mechanistic modelling needed• Perhaps some further experimentation to
characterise HTS?