júlia seixas & j. joanaz melo, 2006 fct | unl 1 energy & environment: why global? júlia...

Júlia Seixas & J. Joanaz Melo, 2006 FCT | UNL 1

Energy & Environment: WHY GLOBAL?

Júlia [email protected]

Dep. Ciências e Engenharia do AmbienteFCT - UNL


These measurements show concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) at altitudes of 15,000 feet. Red colors in these images indicate highest levels of CO (450 parts per billion). Blue colors indicate lowest levels of CO (50 ppb). Terra detected strong sources of CO in Southeast Asia during April and May 2000. The air pollution plume from this region moves over the Pacific Ocean and reaches North America, frequently at fairly high concentrations. Scientists say that fires and possibly industrial sources are major contributors to these events. See animated pollution patterns at Source: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/earth/terra/co.htm

CO global patterns measured by TERRA – MOPITT sensor


• How can we provide the benefits of energy to the population of the globe without damaging the environment, negatively affecting social stability, or threatening the well-being of future generations?

in Sustainable Energy, MIT 2005

science


• A clean, secure and sufficient supply of energy is simply essential for the future of our country. We need energy to heat and light our homes, to power our businesses and to transport people and goods. Without it, we could not function as an economy or modern society. But we now face two immense challenges as a country – energy security and climate change.

Tony Blair in The Energy Challenge, July 2006

policy

Dec. 1997


• Business has already found that it is possible to reduce emissions from its operations. Counterintuitively, BP found that it was able to reach its initial target of reducing emissions by 10 percent below its 1990 levels without cost. Indeed, the company added around $650 million of shareholder value, because the bulk of the reductions came from the elimination of leaks and waste. Other firms -- such as electricity generator Entergy, car manufacturer Toyota, and mining giant Rio Tinto -- are having similar experiences.

Lord Brown of Madingley is former Group Chief Executive of BPin Foreign Affairs, July/August 2004

business

The Climate Savers Computing Initiative is setting a new 90 % efficiency target for power supplies, which if achieved, will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 54 million tons per year - and save more than $5.5 billion in energy costs."

(shuts down twenty 500 megawatt coal-fired power plants)


1. Energy demand and supply: a global perspective

2. Global environmental issues

3. Global policies and instruments

4. Thoughts and questions

summary

Energy & Environment: WHY GLOBAL?


1. Energy systems: a global perspective

FSU - Former Soviet Union



World primary energy consumption

Read more at: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2007/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/bp_sustainability_report_2007_christof_ruhl_speech_and_slides.pdf

•1,76%/year [1994-2006]. •World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 by 2030 (US Energy Information Administration)

• 3.7% em 2013 nos países em desenvolvimento

energy consumption



+33%

energy consumption


summary 1. Energy systems: a global perspective

Rapidly growingenergy demand ofthe emergingmarket economies(i.e. China, India,Brazil and Russia )

Source: Sascha Meinert, Institute for Prospective Analyses, Berlin

energy consumption



the fastest rate since 1984. This was a worldwide phenomenon, but China alone generated 43%

Weather?

energy consumption



Measured at ‘Purchasing Power Parity’exchange rates (PPP) global economic growth averaged 4.4%. This exceeded the 3.5% average in the 1996 – 2001 period. And it is the strongest five year period since the 1960s.

How can we reconcile rapid increases in energy priceswith accelerating consumption growth?

energy consumption


1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveenergy consumption


USUSAA


CHINACHINA

energy consumption


Oil consumption growth in 2004 was the largest in volume terms since 1976. Consumption grew by almost 2 .5 million barrels per day (b/d), which is more than double the 10-year average rate.

Chinese oil consumption rose by nearly 900,000 b/d. But oil consumption growth was a global trend, with consumption in all regions rising above the 10-year average rate on the back of the world economy.




Line at a gas station in Maryland, USA, June 15, 1979

In this 1974 photo, a man at a service station reads about the gas rationing system in an afternoon newspaper; a sign in the background states that no gas is available

energy supply


Reserves are those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations under defined conditions. Reserves must satisfy four criteria:

•discovered through one or more exploratory wells •recoverable using existing technology •commercially viable •remaining in the ground

All reserve estimates involve uncertainty, depending on the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available and the interpretation of those data.

Proved reserves are those reserves considered to have a reasonable certainty (normally at least 90% confidence) of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, and using existing technology. Industry specialists refer to this as P90 (i.e. having a 90% certainty of being produced). Proved reserves are also known in the industry as 1P

Proved reserves are the only type the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allows oil companies to report to investors.

Probable reserves are based on median estimates, and indicate a 50% confidence level of recovery. Industry specialists refer to this as P50 (i.e. having a 50% certainty of being produced). Referred to in the industry as 2P (proved plus probable).

Possible reserves have a less likely chance of being recovered than probable reserves. This term is often used for reserves which have at least a 10% certainty of being produced (P10). Reasons for classifying reserves as possible include varying interpretations of geology, reserves not producible at commercial rates, uncertainty due to reserve infill, projected reserves based on future recovery methods. Referred to in the industry as 3P (proved plus probable plus possible).Unproved reserves are used internally by oil companies and government agencies for future planning purposes.

Curves represent categories of oil in assessment. There is a 95-percent chance (i.e., probability, F95) of at least volume V1 of economically recoverable oil, and there is a 5-percent chance (F05) of at least volume V2 of economically recoverable oil.

1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveenergy supply


OPEC

1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveenergy supply


The Hirsh ReportFull Report (91 pages): http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

Summary: http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf

The Economist: Half of the world's population enjoys fuel subsidies. This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world's petrol is sold at less than the market price. U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman stated that around 30 million barrels per day (4,800,000 m³/d) of oil consumption (over a third of the global total) is subsidized.But energy analyst Jeff Vail warned that cutting subsidies would do little to reduce global prices.


A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956.


http://www.forbes.com/

$86.10

1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveenergy prices



Read the story Oil Price History and Analysis at: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

OPEC formationBad for energy

efficiency

energy prices



New York Mercantile Exchange

energy prices

Commodities daily prices: http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/


1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveenergy prices


Heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) are quantitative indices demonstrated to reflect demand for energy to heat or cool houses and businesses. These indices are derived from daily temperature observations. HDD are calculated over a period of time by adding up the differences between each day's mean daily temperature and the "balance point" temperature (Tbase) of 18 °C, above which the building is assumed not to need any heating. The degree-day figure for a given month or week is the accumulated total of daily results over the period in question.

The daily result for HDD is selected from the following formulae:

Condition Formula used

Tmax<Tbase Dh=Tbase-(Tmax+Tmin)/2

Tmax>=Tbase Dh=(Tbase-Tmin)/2-(Tmax-Tbase)/4

(Tmax+Tmin)/2>Tbase Dh=(Tbase-Tmin)/4

Tmin>Tbase Dh=0

The daily result for CDD is selected from the following formulae:

Condition Formula used

Tmin>Tbase Dc=(Tmax+Tmin)/2-Tbase

Tmin<=Tbase Dc=(Tmax-Tbase)/2-(Tbase-Tmin)/4

(Tmax+Tmin)/2<Tbase Dc=(Tmax-Tbase)/4

Tmax<Tbase Dc=0



1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveEnergy carbon emissions



Source: Sustainability and Energy? E.M. Drake, February 3, 2005 (MIT OPEN COURSEWARE)


summary 1. Energy systems: a global perspective

Energy – Exporting and Importing Regions in 2030 (estimated)

Source: Sascha Meinert, Institute for Prospective Analyses, Berlin

energy EU


Indigenous energyproduction of EU25(Mtoe)

...increasing net imports

Source: European Commission 2006

“Under our business as usual scenario, almost 70% of the Energy the European Union uses will be imported by 2030. Energy demand will rise by 1% to 2% per year and the share of fossil fuels in our energy supply could rise to almost 90% substantially increasing greenhouse emissions.”

EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs

1. Energy systems: a global perspectiveenergy EU


How to think on energy & environment?


Acid Rain

Rain water is naturally acidic, because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere combines with water molecules to form carbonic acid. Acidic precipitation or acid deposition occurs when sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere react with oxygen in the air to form sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and nitric acid (HNO), which falls to the surface as rain, snow, or dust. To be considered acid precipitation, the precipitation has to have a pH of 5.0 or lower.



Since 1979 the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has addressed some of the major environmental problems of the UNECE region through scientific collaboration and policy negotiation.

1999 Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone; 20 Parties. Entered into force on 17 May 2005.

1998 Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs); 28 Parties. Entered into force on 23 October 2003.

1998 Protocol on Heavy Metals; 27 Parties. Entered into force on 29 December 2003.

1994 Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions; 27 Parties. Entered into force 5 August 1998.

1991 Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds or their Transboundary Fluxes; 21 Parties. Entered into force 29 September 1997.

1988 Protocol concerning the Control of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes ; 31 Parties. Entered into force 14 February 1991.

1985 Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 per cent ; 22 Parties. Entered into force 2 September 1987.

1984 Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP); 41 Parties. Entered into force 28 January 1988.

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/



http://ozone.unep.org/index.asp


Image of the largest Antarctic ozone hole ever recorded in September 2000. Data taken by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard NASA's Earth Probe satellite.

Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer

• phasing out the production of a number of substances believed to be responsible for ozone depletion (CFCs, HCFCs)• entered into force on January 1, 1989• it has been hailed as an example of exceptional international cooperation with Kofi Annan quoted as saying it is "Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date...".


Economic and environmental impacts

Atmosphere composition changes Climate Change



Impacts of a warming climate, ACIA, 2004http://amap.no/acia/


Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania

Science, Oct 18, 2004: “if current melting rate continues, the last ice atop the 19,300-foot African mountain could disappear between 2015 and 2020”

Climate archive disappearing with the snows of Kilimanjaro

Thompson's research is finding that the Earth is heating up and the warming is taking its toll on the ice. The glaciers - including the snows of Kilimanjaro - are retreating. And when they melt, the archive is gone. "Something that's really striking about the late 20th century is the scale at which the retreat has taken place," Thompson said.



Impacts on the ecosystems, and biodiversity (ratio of nºsp 2100 /1990

Impacts of Europe's changing climateEEA Report No 2/2004



(…) six "tough issues" that should be at the top of the global agenda in 2005: poverty, equitable globalization, climate changeclimate change, education, Middle East and global governance.

The UK Prime Minister sees climate change as “probably, long-term the single most important issue we face as a global community”. … climate change is a priority during the UK’s G8 Presidency this year, along with Africa.

COM(2005) 35 final: Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change

1. Broader international participation in reducing emissions.2. Inclusion of more sectors (e.g. aviation)3. Push for innovation in the EU4. flexible market-based instruments for reducing emissions in the EU and globally,5. Adaptation policies in the EU and globally,



www.unfccc.de

- KYOTO PROTOCOL -


COPCopenhaga 2009 International Agreement on Climate Regime after 2013

Includes:

Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention


http://www.sustenergy.org/

GOALS:

Raise the awareness of decision-makers at local, regional, national and European level

Spread best-practice

Ensure a strong level of public awareness, understanding and support

Stimulate the necessary trends towards an increase in private investment in sustainable energy technologies



Energy Green Paper, 8 March 5 "headline goals":to speak with one voice on strategic energy issues; to diversify the mix of primary energy resources; to become the world's most energy-efficient region; to become the world leader in low carbon energy research and development; to complete the internal energy market by 2007.



Big energy consumers (India and China)Absence of structural energy efficiency in the US economy Environmental issues Pressure on energy price and energy options

►impacts on national economies

Presence of global patterns of pollution and environmental impactsIncreasing trends of environmental impactsEquity and responsability issuesPressure on global environmental management

►impacts on national sovereignty



The Challenge

If we have to change our energy technologies over a relatively short period of time, where are the best alternatives?

How should we invest in developing better alternatives?

What are the drivers that will encourage timely development and market penetration of these technologies?

Do we also have to change behaviors (and values)?

Are (public) policies appropriate to tackle the challenge?


What can we do?In choosing careers?

In our professional lives? As private | national | global citizens?

How much are we willing to do?



Can you understand better now these images?

ENERGY USES IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

MIT OpenCourseWare: Sustainable Energy Energy Sources for a More Sustainable Future - Prof. Michael Golay


BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006Quantifying energyThe Review tells the story - and history - of world energy through the numbers behind the energy market headlines.

Impacts of a warming climate, ACIA, 2004

Impacts of Europe's changing climateEEA Report No 2/2004

United Nations Convention on Climate Change

Energy Green paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy

MIT OpenCourseWare: Sustainable Energy Sustainability, Energy, and Clean Technologies in Context - Dr. Elisabeth Drake

References and selected readings


ENERGY CRISES1973 oil crisis | 1979 energy crises | 2000s energy crisisat Wikipedia

References and selected readings

THE ENERGY PORTALat Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Energy


energy and environment data sets

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/subjectqueries/index.aspDocuments and IEA events

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/index.aspWorld Energy Statistics and Energy Balances

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

http://www.oecd.org/statsportal/0,2639,en_2825_293564_1_1_1_1_1,00.htmlStatistics Portal

http://www.dge.pt/main.asp?IdTemas=3Portuguese energy statistics


The Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) - http://cait.wri.org/A comprehensive and comparable database of greenhouse gas emissions data (including all major sources and sinks) and other climate-relevant indicators.

http://themes.eea.europa.eu/indicators/European Environmental Indicators

http://www.iambiente.pt/portal/page?_pageid=73,408080&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&actualmenu=10141058&docs=10139504&cboui=10139504&menu_childmenu=10140981

Inventário Nacional de Emissões de GEE

energy and environment data sets

INSTITUTO DO AMBIENTE

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