jul-20 2.531 0 - mansfield energy corp · 8/9/2018 · threatening to undercut the trump...
TRANSCRIPT
1 2 M O N T H C A N D L E S T I C K ( W E E K L Y )
Prompt Natural Gas
(NG) Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
2.97 & 3.00
SUPPORT
2.91 & 2.86
With Threatened Gas Tariff, China Wields a Potent Long-Term Weapon — US News reported: Companies across the U.S. oil and gas sector are poised to feel the pain if China's threat of a 25 percent tariff on American liquefied natural gas stays in place and the countries' leaders fail to halt their escalating trade war. The threat marked the latest development in the spat, with Beijing
I N T H E N E W S Prior Day’s NYMEX
Sep-18 Contract (CT)
© 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Trading Summary NYMEX NG Futures
Contact Us
Mansfield Energy Corp
1025 Airport Pkwy
Gainesville, GA 30501
www.mansfield.energy
Phone: (800) 695-6626
A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 1 8
2.87
2.88
2.89
2.90
2.91
2.92
2.93
2.94
2.95
2.96
8:0
0
8:4
5
9:3
0
10
:15
11
:00
11
:45
12
:30
13
:15
14
:00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
NATURAL GAS
Futures Close Change
NG 2.949 0.052
Volume 575,733 (505,225)
Open Int. 1,569,113 (8,168)
CRUDE AND GASOLINE
Futures Close Change
Crude 66.94 (2.23)
RBOB 2.0195 (0.0845)
Crude/NG 22.70 (1.18)
METALS
Futures Close Change
Gold 1,212.60 2.30
EQUITIES
Exchange Close Change
DOW 25,628.91 126.73
S&P 500 -1,696.15 8.05
CURRENCY
Currency Close Change
EUR/USD 1.1582 (0.0017)
USD/CND 1.2405 0.0012
Month Close Change
Sep-18 2.949 0.052
Oct-18 2.955 0.055
Nov-18 2.989 0.054
Dec-18 3.077 0.046
Jan-19 3.163 0.046
Feb-19 3.124 0.044
Mar-19 3.019 0.045
Apr-19 2.691 0.034
May-19 2.655 0.030
Jun-19 2.681 0.028
Jul-19 2.712 0.029
Aug-19 2.716 0.029
Sep-19 2.698 0.030
Oct-19 2.714 0.030
Nov-19 2.761 0.029
Dec-19 2.883 0.026
Jan-20 2.980 0.028
Feb-20 2.936 0.024
Mar-20 2.827 0.021
Apr-20 2.522 0.015
May-20 2.481 0.015
Jun-20 2.504 0.013
Jul-20 2.531 0.013
Aug-20 2.538 0.014
1YR Strip 2.894 0.041
2018 2.993 0.052
5YR Strip 2.680 0.020
BULLISH
• With Threatened Gas Tariff, China Wields a Potent Long-Term
Weapon
• A Gas Company Settles for $119.5 Million for the Biggest
Methane Leak in U.S. History
taking aim at one of President Donald Trump's key bases of sup-port – and one of the country's economic engines – in response to Trump's decision to hike tariffs on Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent. But it will take months – and perhaps a year or longer – before the pain is truly felt, perhaps enough time for both sides to find rapprochement. If it takes effect, the move would essentially lock out the world's largest producer of natural gas from the world's single biggest and fastest-growing market for the product, threatening to undercut the Trump administration's high-profile drive to remake U.S. foreign policy – and project American power – by wielding the country's surging oil and gas production. For more on this story visit usnews.com or click https://bit.ly/2OoJcAe
A Gas Company Settles for $119.5 Million for the Biggest Methane Leak in U.S. History — Pacific Standard reports: After one of its natural gas storage wells blew out and caused the biggest me-thane leak in United States history, the Southern California Gas Company has agreed to pay $119.5 million to settle city, county, and state claims against it, the Los Angeles Times reports. SoCal Gas has already paid $4 million, and agreed to pay another $8.5 million, in other settlements related to the disaster. The leak be-gan in October of 2015, in SoCal Gas' Aliso Canyon gas field. It took the company almost four months to stop the outpouring of natural gas, during which time an estimated 109,000 metric tons of methane were released into the atmosphere. For more on this story visit psmag.com or click https://bit.ly/2vSTiSm
W E E K L Y G A S I N U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E W I T H 5 - Y R R A N G E
Page 2 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Release Date: August 2, 2018
A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
DEBBY
Rig Count
Report Date:
Total Change
US - 1044 (4)
CN - 223 0
August 3, 2018
T R O P I C A L S T O R M A C T I V I T Y — A T L A N T I C
August 9, 2018
Range — +35 to +57
PIRA— +44
CITI — +47
Reuters — +47
EIA ACTUAL Due Out Today at
10:30am EPT/09:30am CPT
EIA Storage Forecast and
Surveys for Release Date
2,308 BCF
35 BCF (LAST WEEK)
(668) BCF (LAST YEAR)
(565) BCF (5-YR AVG)
Total Working Gas In
Storage
U.S. Natural Gas Supply
Gas Week 7/26 — 8/1
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +73.4
Total Supply — +79.3
Last Week (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +81.0
Total Supply — +86.6
[NEXT REPORT ON Aug 10]
U.S. Natural Gas Demand
Gas Week 7/26 — 8/1
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Power — +34.4
Total Demand — +73.3
Last Week (BCF/d)
Power — +36.8
Total Demand — +78.9
[NEXT REPORT ON Aug 10]
Month:
Day Price Day Price
1 67.66 16
2 68.96 17
3 68.49 18
4 19
5 20
6 69.01 21
7 69.17 22
8 66.94 23
9 24
10 25
11 26
12 27
13 28
14 29
15 30
31
Average (Aug)
(through 08/08/2018)
Average (Jul)
Average (Jun)
70.5819
67.3229
August 2018
68.3717-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Waha Basis (platts Iferc)
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
N A T U R A L G A S B A S I S F U T U R E S , H E N R Y H U B S P O T P R I C E S , A N D F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 3 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 1 8
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Call
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Put
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
1 3 5 7 9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Henry Hub Daily Spot Price
AUG 2018 JUL 2018 JUN 2018
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
9/1/
2018
2/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
12/1
/201
9
5/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
3/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
1/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
11/1
/202
2
4/1/
2023
9/1/
2023
2/1/
2024
7/1/
2024
12/1
/202
4
5/1/
2025
10/1
/202
5
3/1/
2026
8/1/
2026
1/1/
2027
NYMEX Natural Gas Forward Curve
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
-1.500
-1.300
-1.100
-0.900
-0.700
-0.500
-0.300
-0.100
0.100
0.300
0.500
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Sumas Basis (platts Iferc)
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Michcon Basis (platts Iferc)
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Transco Zone 6 Basis (platts Iferc)
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
-1.200
-1.000
-0.800
-0.600
-0.400
-0.200
0.000
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
San Juan Basis (platts Iferc)
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
-0.07
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Transco Zone 4 Basis (platts Iferc)
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
Oct-18
Nov-18 2.950 0.098 22.5
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
Oct-18
Nov-18 2.950 0.094 22.5
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
NYMEX WTI Delivery
Month Average ($/bbl)
(Excluding Weekends and Holidays)
Page 4 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W E A T H E R — H I G H / L O W T E M P E R A T U R E T O M O R R O W
HIGH Temperature LOW Temperature
W E A T H E R — 6 T O 1 0 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
W E A T H E R — 8 T O 1 4 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
CME Future Prices
Ethane (C2)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
CME Future Prices
Propane (C3)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
E T H A N E F U T U R E S , N G / E T H A N E R A T I O , P R O P A N E F U T U R E S , A N D T H E F R A C S P R E A D
Page 5 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Month Close Change
Sep-18 0.374 (0.006)
Oct-18 0.366 (0.007)
Nov-18 0.354 (0.005)
Dec-18 0.343 (0.004)
Jan-19 0.333 (0.002)
Feb-19 0.325 0.000
Mar-19 0.316 0.000
Apr-19 0.305 0.000
May-19 0.294 (0.000)
Jun-19 0.290 (0.001)
Jul-19 0.288 (0.000)
Aug-19 0.287 0.002
1YR Strip 0.323 (0.002)
(cents/gallon)
Month Close Change
Sep-18 0.955 (0.023)
Oct-18 0.951 (0.031)
Nov-18 0.950 (0.031)
Dec-18 0.948 (0.031)
Jan-19 0.944 (0.031)
Feb-19 0.936 (0.029)
Mar-19 0.920 (0.028)
Apr-19 0.846 (0.026)
May-19 0.782 (0.025)
Jun-19 0.758 (0.024)
Jul-19 0.750 (0.023)
Aug-19 0.750 (0.023)
1YR Strip 0.874 (0.027)
(cents/gallon)
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
11/1
/202
0
1/1/
2021
3/1/
2021
Ethane Futures
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
9/
1/2
01
8
10
/1/2
01
8
11
/1/2
01
8
12
/1/2
01
8
1/
1/2
01
9
2/
1/2
01
9
3/
1/2
01
9
4/
1/2
01
9
5/
1/2
01
9
6/
1/2
01
9
7/
1/2
01
9
8/
1/2
01
9
9/
1/2
01
9
10
/1/2
01
9
11
/1/2
01
9
12
/1/2
01
9
Ethane / Natural Gas Ratio
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
9/
1/2
01
8
11
/1/2
01
8
1/
1/2
01
9
3/
1/2
01
9
5/
1/2
01
9
7/
1/2
01
9
9/
1/2
01
9
11
/1/2
01
9
1/
1/2
02
0
3/
1/2
02
0
5/
1/2
02
0
7/
1/2
02
0
9/
1/2
02
0
11
/1/2
02
0
1/
1/2
02
1
3/
1/2
02
1
Propane Futures
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
9/1/
2018
10/1
/201
8
11/1
/201
8
12/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
2/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
4/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
11/1
/201
9
12/1
/201
9
Frac Spread
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
Prompt WTI (CL) Crude
Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
68.77 & 70.59
SUPPORT
66.29 & 65.72
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
10/1
/201
8
2/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
2/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
10/1
/202
2
2/1/
2023
6/1/
2023
10/1
/202
3
2/1/
2024
6/1/
2024
10/1
/202
4
2/1/
2025
6/1/
2025
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
Ethane : 42% 66,500 btu/g
Propane: 28% 90,830 btu/g
Butane: 11% 102,916 btu/g
Iso-Butane: 6% 98,935 btu/g
Natural Gasoline: 13%
115,021 btu/g
NEUTRAL
B R E N T C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 6 © 2018 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W T I C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
W T I — B R E N T S P R E A D
NYMEX WTI (CL) Futures
NYMEX Brent (BZ)
Futures
Prompt NGL Futures
($/gallon)
FRAC Spread
Specifications
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER:
@MPG_NatGasNews
A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Close Change
1.135 (0.020)
1.127 (0.011)
1.508 (0.039)
Iso-Butane
Nat Gasoline
Sep-18
Butane
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
9/1/
2018
2/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
12/1
/201
9
5/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
3/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
1/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
11/1
/202
2
4/1/
2023
9/1/
2023
2/1/
2024
7/1/
2024
12/1
/202
4
5/1/
2025
10/1
/202
5
3/1/
2026
8/1/
2026
1/1/
2027
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
(12)(11)(10)
(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)0
10/1
/201
8
2/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
10/1
/201
9
2/1/
2020
6/1/
2020
10/1
/202
0
2/1/
2021
6/1/
2021
10/1
/202
1
2/1/
2022
6/1/
2022
10/1
/202
2
2/1/
2023
6/1/
2023
10/1
/202
3
2/1/
2024
6/1/
2024
8/8/2018 8/1/2018 7/9/2018
Month Close Change
Sep-18 66.94 (2.23)
Oct-18 66.25 (2.08)
Nov-18 65.87 (2.09)
Dec-18 65.54 (2.08)
Jan-19 65.30 (2.05)
Feb-19 64.97 (1.99)
Mar-19 64.66 (1.95)
Apr-19 64.39 (1.90)
May-19 64.13 (1.86)
Jun-19 63.86 (1.83)
Jul-19 63.56 (1.79)
Aug-19 63.26 (1.76)
Sep-19 62.99 (1.73)
Oct-19 62.73 (1.70)
Nov-19 62.47 (1.67)
Dec-19 62.22 (1.65)
Jan-20 61.91 (1.63)
Feb-20 61.63 (1.61)
Mar-20 61.36 (1.57)
Apr-20 61.11 (1.55)
May-20 60.88 (1.53)
Jun-20 60.64 (1.53)
Jul-20 60.38 (1.51)
Aug-20 60.16 (1.48)
1YR Strip 64.89 (1.97)
2018 66.15 (2.12)
5YR Strip 59.40 (1.49)
Month Close Change
Oct-18 72.28 (2.37)
Nov-18 72.64 (2.35)
Dec-18 72.84 (2.32)
Jan-19 72.92 (2.29)
Feb-19 72.90 (2.24)
Mar-19 72.77 (2.19)
Apr-19 72.59 (2.17)
May-19 72.37 (2.14)
Jun-19 72.11 (2.12)
Jul-19 71.89 (2.10)
Aug-19 71.67 (2.08)
Sep-19 71.43 (2.06)
Oct-19 71.18 (2.03)
Nov-19 70.95 (2.00)
Dec-19 70.69 (1.97)
Jan-20 70.44 (1.95)
Feb-20 70.21 (1.93)
Mar-20 69.96 (1.92)
Apr-20 69.69 (1.91)
May-20 69.45 (1.89)
Jun-20 69.22 (1.87)
Jul-20 68.97 (1.86)
Aug-20 68.73 (1.84)
Sep-20 68.49 (1.82)
1YR Strip 72.37 (2.20)
2018 72.59 (2.35)
5YR Strip 67.55 (1.78)