Julian Ramirez-Villegas+ team

Helping farmers reduce climate risks

Yes… I’m presenting on climate services…

Why is it that we are interested in climate services in LAC?1. Opportunity to do good science in tropical LAC2. Major losses in Ag sector (e.g. climate controls 33 %

of yield variations globally –Ray et al. 2015)3. Understanding climate variability provides

opportunity to generate site-specific information that is actionable by farmers & farmer organisations

4. Can integrate nicely with climate change timescales5. Significant next user demand

Major activities

•Prediction of climate at seasonal timescales•Prediction of yield•Assessment of farmer / extension agent information needs for tailoring service

Prediction of climate at seasonal timescales• Understanding predictability

limits helps to know how much information we can really provide• First predictability study

across regions, with focus on agriculture• Four departments that grow

rice and maize• Used statistical forecast

models with SST as predictor

Prediction of climate at seasonal timescales• Inter-Andean valleys (Valle and Tolima) show the greatest predictability on

average

• Average hides seasonal variability, with lowest predictability around the rainy season for these departments• Forecast skill not affected significantly by selected predictor region or lead

time

Prediction of climate at seasonal timescales• Clearest teleconnections typically in the Pacific basin, but sometimes also in the

Atlantic.

Prediction of yield for seasonal climate predictions• Simulated output credibility may vary across

space (see Monteria)• Varietal performance is relatively similar, with

clear advantage for particular variety for each site

Assessment of information needs• Capacity strenghtening is needed on

concepts related to agro-climatic forecasting and crop modeling.• Translating information in simpler,

sometimes text- or audio- form, may be needed• Additional diffusion channels for

forecast may be needed if we are to reach impact at scale

Thanks!Julian Ramirez-Villegasj.r.villegas@cgiar.org