jpmorgan american investment trust plc 100th annual ......11th may 2016 1 agenda performance review...
TRANSCRIPT
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc 100th Annual General Meeting 11th May 2016
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Agenda
Performance Review
Current Economic and Market Data
Current Asset Allocation and Fund Structure
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: 2015 Results
1 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management and based on cum income debt at par. 2 Source: © Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The Company’s benchmark index is the S&P 500 Index, net of the appropriate withholding tax, expressed in sterling total return terms.
NAV return1 4.7%
Ordinary share price2 -2.4%
S&P 500 Composite Index (£) 6.9%
NAV relative return -2.2%
Interim Dividend (Net) payment (October 2014) 1.00p
Dividend (Net) Payment (May 2015) 2.25p
Interim Dividend (Net) Payment (October 2015) 1.50p = 23.1% increase
on 2014 Final Dividend (Net) Proposed Payment (May 2016) 2.50p
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Performance Attribution – Contributions to Total Returns JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, © Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. All figures are on a total return basis. Performance attribution analyses how the Company achieved its recorded performance relative to its benchmark index.
Contributions To Total Returns Year ended 31st December 2015
Net Asset Value Total Return (In sterling terms) 4.7%
Benchmark Total Return (In sterling terms) 6.9%
Excess Return -2.2%
Contributions To Total Returns
Large Cap Portfolio -0.9%
Allocation Effect 0.4%
Selection Effect -1.3%
Small Cap Portfolio -0.2%
Allocation Effect -0.2%
Gearing -0.1%
Cost Of Debt -0.5%
Currency Hedge -0.1%
Share Issuance 0.1%
Management Fee/Expenses -0.6%
Performance Fee 0.1%
Total -2.2%
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: 2015 performance attribution
Source: Wilshire. Excluding gearing and cash. 1Attribution breakdown equates to the gross performance of the portfolio. Stock attribution is based on stock selection to total return.*Indicates stock was not held as of 31 December 2015. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio; holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
For the twelve month period ending 31 December 2015 Excludes Cash & Gearing (USD)
Sector attribution (%)
0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1
0.0 -0.6 -0.6
-1.1 -1.2 -2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.0
Industrials Health Care Energy ConsumerStaples
Materials Utilities TelecomServices
Financials ConsumerDiscretionary
InformationTechnology
Attribution summary1 Stock: -1.56% Sector: +0.44%
Benchmark S&P 500 Index
Top Contributors Relative weight (%) Stock
return (%) Impact
(%)
Northrop Grumman 2.61 30.46 0.49
Microsoft 2.68 22.70 0.46
Tyson Foods 1.68 34.37 0.42
Expedia 1.21 46.76 0.34
Avago Technologies 0.89 34.91 0.32
Top Detractors Relative weight (%) Stock
return (%) Impact
(%)
Amazon* -1.45 117.78 -0.76
CenturyLink 1.22 -31.79 -0.52
Devon Energy 0.57 -46.60 -0.51
Hewlett-Packard 0.85 -29.82 -0.37
Yahoo 0.70 -34.15 -0.37
Stock attribution
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: Performance
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Performance figures of those of the JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc using NAV Cum Par Total Return in sterling versus the S&P 500 Total Return Index (net of 15% withholding Tax). Excess Return is calculated geometrically. 1 Competitive universe includes all Onshore and Offshore US Large Cap Blend Funds in the Morningstar IMA database. © 2016 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The Morningstar information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
As of 31 March 2016
3 Months One year Three years
Five years
Ten years
JAMIT – NAV Cum Par (%) 2.71 2.38 13.41 12.26 8.83
Benchmark Return (%) 3.84 4.78 13.53 13.67 8.68
Excess Return (%) -1.09 -2.30 -0.10 -1.25 +0.14
Competitive ranking percentile1 60 43 8 21 3
Number of Funds1 485 464 387 341 270
Annualised performance in GBP (%)
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Agenda
Performance Review
Current Economic and Market Data
Current Asset Allocation and Fund Structure
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Economic growth and the composition of GDP
GTM – US | Page 18
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Long-term drivers of economic growth
GTM – US | Page 22
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Labor market perspectives
GTM – US | Page 26
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S&P 500 valuation measures
GTM – US | Page 5
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Annual returns and intra-year declines
GTM – US | Page 11
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Corporate profits
GTM – US | Page 7
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Corporate financials
GTM – US | Page 14
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Oil markets
GTM – US | Page 30
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Consumer finances
GTM – US | Page 19
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Agenda
Performance Review
Current Economic and Market Data
Current Asset Allocation and Fund Structure – Asset Allocation
– Sector Weights
– Stock Weights
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: Asset Allocation – Trailing three years
31-Mar 16 31-Dec 15 30-Sep 15 30-Jun 15 31-Mar 15 31-Dec 14 30-Sep 14 30-Jun 14
Large Cap Portfolio 94.9% 94.0% 93.7% 93.5% 94.0% 95.4% 95.7% 94.7%
Small Cap Growth Portfolio 3.8% 4.1% 4.0% 4.9% 4.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6%
Liquidity 1.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5%
Unrealized Hedge Value 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0.3% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.1%
Total* 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Actual Gearing 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio; holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. *Figures may not add up to 100% due to the removal of the allocation to the US Small & Micro Cap and unquoted portions of the Investment Trust from prior periods.
As of 31 March 2016
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Benchmark S&P 500 Index
Active and absolute sector positions
Sector breakdown JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc As of 31 March 2016
4.9 4.0
2.7
0.3 0.1
-0.4
-1.9 -2.1
-3.6 -4.0 -5.0
-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0
InformationTechnology
ConsumerStaples
Health Care TelecomServices
Utilities Energy Industrials Materials ConsumerDiscretionary
Financials
Portfolio weight (%) 25.8 14.4 17.0 3.1 3.5 6.4 8.2 0.8 9.3 11.6
Relative to benchmark (%)
Source: Wilshire. Excludes gearing and cash. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: Portfolio Positions
Source: Wilshire. 1Relative to the S&P 500 Index. 2Based on combining the positions of both Alphabet share classes (GOOGL and GOOG) which are listed in the S&P 500. *Indicates a stock not held as of 31 March 2016. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
Top 10 Holdings (%)
Apple 6.1
Microsoft 5.2
Northrop 3.0
Gilead Sciences 2.6
Qualcomm 2.3
Tyson Foods 2.3
Wells Fargo 2.1
Citigroup 2.1
Johnson & Johnson 2.0
Wal-Mart 2.0
As of 31 March 2016
Top 5 Overweights1 (%)
Microsoft 2.8
Northrop 2.8
Apple 2.7
Tyson Foods 2.1
Gilead Sciences 1.9
Top 5 Underweights1 (%)
General Electric* -1.7
Alphabet2 -1.6
Berkshire Hathaway* -1.5
Facebook* -1.5
AT&T* -1.3
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Financial Metrics: Microsoft
Sales and EPS Data for Quarters Ending 12/31/10 - 12/31/15. Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Microsoft (MSFT) Share Price, Sales, and EPS
Price ($, RHS)
Trailing 12M Sales ($B, RHS)
Trailing 12M EPS ($, LHS)
Share Repurchase and Dividend Data for Quarters Ending 12/31/10 - 12/31/15. Source: Bloomberg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Microsoft (MSFT)Share Price, Share Repurchases, and Dividends Paid
Price ($, RHS)
Trailing 12M Dvidends Paid ($M, LHS)
Trailing 12M Share Repurchases($M, LHS)
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, company data. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for current and future performance.
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, company data. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for current and future performance.
Financial Metrics: Northrop Grumman
Sales and EPS Data for Quarters Ending 12/31/10 - 12/31/15. Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Share Price, Sales, and EPS
Price ($, RHS)
Trailing 12M Sales ($B, LHS)
Trailing 12M EPS ($, LHS)
Share Repurchase and Dividend Data for Quarters Ending 12/31/10 - 12/31/15. Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Northrop Grumman (NOC)Share Price, Share Repurchases, and Dividends Paid
Price ($, RHS)
Trailing 12M Dvidends Paid ($M, LHS)
Trailing 12M Share Repurchases($M, LHS)
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Financial Metrics: Valero
Sales and EPS Data for Quarters Ending 12/31/10 - 12/31/15. Source: Bloomberg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Valero (VLO) Share Price, Sales, and EPS
Price ($, RHS)
Trailing 12M Sales ($B, LHS)
Trailing 12M EPS ($, RHS)
Share Repurchase and Dividend Data for Quarters Ending 12/31/10 - 12/31/15. Source: Bloomberg
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015
Valero (VLO)Share Price, Share Repurchases, and Dividends Paid
Price ($, RHS)
Trailing 12M Dvidends Paid ($M, LHS)
Trailing 12M Share Repurchases($M, LHS)
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, company data. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for current and future performance.
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Conclusions
Valuations are high but not alarming
The US continues its modest growth trajectory
Corporate America continues to prudently manage its capital
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Investment objective and key risks
Investment objective Aims to achieve capital growth from North American investments by outperformance of the S&P 500 index. The company will predominantly invest in quoted companies including, when appropriate, exposure to smaller capitalisation companies. The company has the ability to use borrowing to gear the portfolio within the range of 5% net cash to 20% geared in normal market conditions.
Key risks Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up.
External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time.
This trust may utlilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.
This trust may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile.
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management
This is a promotional document and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. You should note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines may be recorded and monitored for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that information and data from communications with you will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with the EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through the following website http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy. Investment is subject to documentation (Investment Trust Profiles, Key Features and Terms and Conditions), copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 288553. Registered address: 25 Bank St, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.
Disclaimer
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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc �100th Annual General MeetingAgendaJPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: 2015 ResultsPerformance Attribution – Contributions to Total ReturnsJPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: 2015 performance attribution JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: Performance AgendaEconomic growth and the composition of GDPLong-term drivers of economic growthLabor market perspectivesS&P 500 valuation measuresAnnual returns and intra-year declinesCorporate profitsCorporate financialsOil markets Consumer financesAgendaJPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: Asset Allocation – Trailing three yearsSector breakdownJPMorgan American Investment Trust plc: Portfolio PositionsFinancial Metrics: MicrosoftFinancial Metrics: Northrop GrummanFinancial Metrics: ValeroConclusionsInvestment objective and key risksJ.P. Morgan Asset Management