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June 5, 2017 SHANE TEDJARATI | President & CEO, Global High Growth Regions
JP MORGAN GLOBAL CHINA SUMMIT 2017
China’s Record-Breaking Rate of Development
1
Number Of Years To Double Real GDP Per Capita
- Fastest rate of doubling GDP
- FOUR DOUBLEs in just 33 years
UK US Japan China
Post Great Depression Post World War II Post China Economic Reform
Source: UK - Bank of England (Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data) (2013 £)
US - US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau, World Bank, HON Analysis (2009 US$)
Japan – The Maddison Project (1945-1955), Japan Statistics Bureau (1955-2015), HON Analysis (1990 JP Yen)
China - World Bank (Constant 2010 US$)
Industrial Revolution
1st: 1760
2nd: 1820
From “BRICS” to “CRest” (China & the Rest)
2
In 2000, when BRICS Was Coined… … Fast Forward to 2016
Source: 2001 Global Economics Paper No:66 by Goldman Sachs, IHS Database, World Bank
GDP US$ Bn
GDP% of World
US 9,963 33.1%
Brazil 588 2.0%
Russia 247 0.8%
India 474 1.6%
China 1,080 3.6%
South Africa 136 0.5%
GDP% of World
Growth
Multiple
Incremental
GDP US$ Bn
24.7% 1.9X 8,606
2.4% 3.1X 1,206
1.7% 5.2X 1,032
3.0% 4.7X 1,770
14.9% 10.3X 10,100
0.4% 2.2X 159
The most
significant
needle-mover
Laser Focus on Revolutionizing Industries
3
Strong Ambition In Advanced Manufacturing“Made In China 2025”
Source: IHS Global Insight; Int’l Federation of Robotics; Macquarie Research; Statista.com; MOFCOM;
Ernst & Young; KPMG; Company Website; HON Research
17%
40
230$B
R&D Investment VC Investment Patents Filed
2.5K
43K
2005 2016
45%
0.5
30$B
Aviation New
Materials
Rail / Metro
Transportation
Renewables Biomedical
Moving From Imitators To Innovators
No. 2 No. 2 No. 3
Legacy of Global Outreach
4
From 1405-1433, Zheng He commanded the Ming dynasty's fleet of immense trading vessels on
expeditions ranging as far as Africa.
Source: Philips Atlas of World History; China Ministry of Culture
From Broad Exploration To Targeted Strategic Investments
5
Increasing Pace of ODIChina Outbound Direct Investment (non-financial)*
Reached $170Bn In 2016, 22% CAGR From 2009
Changing Mix of Investment SectorsChinese Overseas M&A By Industry ($B)
Telecom, Media, Tech
Transport
Finance
Others
Industrials
Oil, Gas & Other Resources
* Continental breakdown of China Outbound Direct Investment based on 2015 data.
Asia
74%
North
America
7.4%
LATAM
8.6%
Europe
4.9%
Africa
2%
Oceania
2.7%
Building The “New Silk Road” – “One Belt, One Road”
Silk Road Economies*
>40%of world
GDP
>60% of world
population
>50% of ’15-’20 world incr.
GDP
7
$14.5BTotal Direct Investment
8.5% Of Total ODI
$126BValue of New Contracts
$50B+Cumulative
Investment Value (‘14-’16)
12Free Trade Agreements
2016 ScorecardFinancial Support($B) Silk Road Fund CDB Ex-Im Bank
AIIBBRICS Bank
*OBOR initiative covers 65 countries in Asia, Africa & Europe
**$124B new investment announced @ Belt & Road Summit on May 14th, 2017