joze sambt university of ljubljana, faculty of economics alexia prskawetz
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National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio. Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz Vienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of
life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio
Joze Sambt
University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics
Alexia PrskawetzVienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Structure of the talk
1. National transfer accounts – methodology
2. National transfer accounts for Austria
3. Projections of life cycle deficit, first demographic dividend and support ratio for Austria
4. Life cycle deficit, first demographic dividend and support ratio for European NTA countries
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34 countries
Europe:
AustriaFinlandFranceGermanyHungarySlovenia SpainSwedenUnited Kingdom
http://www.ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show http://europe.ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show/
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
National transfer accounts methodology
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Source: Andrew Mason, 2007.
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
National transfer accounts
for Austria
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ESTIMATING AGE PROFILES FOR AUSTRIA
DATA
CES 1999/200020,028 observations for individuals7,098 observations on households
ECHP 2000 5,801 observations on individuals2,644 observations on households
+ many additional information from health insurance, pension insurance, etc.
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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LIFE CYCLE DEFICIT
Lifecycle deficit
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
EU
R p
er c
apit
a
21 57
36 years
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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Labor income and consumption
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
EU
R p
er c
apit
a
Labor income
Total consumption
Private consumption
Public consumption
COMPONENTS of LCD
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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ASSET REALLOCATION
Finance of Consumption, Austria 2000
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
Pe
rce
nt
Work
AssetreallocationNet privatetransfersNet publictransfersNet publictransfers in cash
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Projections of
(a) life cycle deficit(b) first demographic dividend and (c) support ratio
for Austria
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Population Structure Austria, 2008
Source: Eurostat
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Population Structure Austria, 2023 (the year of the lowest value of the first demographic dividend)
Source: Eurostat
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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(a) PROJECTING LIFECYCLE DEFICIT Austria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections
(EUROPOP2008)
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4520
00
200
5
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
5
203
0
203
5
204
0
204
5
205
0
EU
R [
in b
illio
ns]
Year
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PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN LCDAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections (EUROPOP2008)
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
LC
D in
crea
se [
in %
]
Year
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Composition of the Lifecycle deficit (LCD) by age groupsAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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(b) FIRST DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
GDP per capita support output per(output per effective = ratio x effective worker consumer)
)t(L)t(Y
)t(N)t(L
)t(N)t(Y
lyNLy
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Projecting the first demographic dividendAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections EUROPOP2008
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
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(c) SUPPORT RATIO
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
The demographic change implies a change in relative size of self supporting and dependent population.
the support ratio:
= LF / CON LF …. effective labor forceCON …. effective number of consumers
influenced by -> consumption needs of people of different ages -> changes in retirement age -> labor force participation rates -> earning power of those who are working
Source: Cutler et al. (1999) An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
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Alternative 1: CON1 = i=1…99 Ni (common dependency ratio)
Alternative 2: differentiate resource needs by age
CON2 = i=1…99 Si Ni (needs weighted consumption measure)
Alternative 1: LF1 = i=20…64 Ni (common dependency ratio)
Alternative 2: LF2 = i=15…80 w i PR i N i (adjust for wages and lfpr by age)
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
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0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
LF1/CON1LF2/CON1LF1/CON2LF2/CON2
Actual and Projected Changes in Support Ratio (relative to 1990), Four Alternative Measures, Austria, 1950-2060,
EUROPOP2008 Population Projections
LF2/CON2
LF2/CON1
LF1/CON2
LF1/CON1
LF2/CON1LF1/CON1LF2/CON2LF1/CON2
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
(a) life cycle deficit, (b) first demographic dividend and(c) support ratio
for
European NTA countries
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(a) Lifecycle deficit for EuroNTA countries
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Life
cycl
e de
ficit
p.c.
/ A
vg la
b. in
c (3
0-49
)
Age
Austria (2000)
Germany (2003)
Hungary (2005)
Slovenia (2004)
Spain (2000)
Germany: 31 (27-57)Slovenia: 31 (25-55)
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Lifecycle deficit for EuroNTA countries
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Life
cycl
e de
ficit
p.c.
/ A
vg la
b. in
c (3
0-49
)
Age
Finland (2004)
France (2004)
Sweden (2003)
Sweden: 38 (25-62)
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(b) First demographic dividend
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060g(
L/N
)
Year
FinlandFranceSweden
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060g(
L/N
)
Year
Hungary
Slovenia
Spain
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060g(
L/N
)
Year
Austria
Germany
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Austria
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Periods of positive 1st dem. dividend
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(c) Four alternative measures of support ratio (relative to 2000)
0.700.720.740.760.780.800.820.840.860.880.900.920.940.960.981.001.021.041.061.081.10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Rat
io
Year
LF1/CON1
LF2/CON1
LF1/CON2
LF2/CON2
AustriaFinland
France Germany
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Four alternative measures of support ratio (relative to 2000)
Hungary Slovenia
Spain Sweden
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END
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics