jovian warning ii

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Jovian Warning II

2009 July 23tags: Government,NASA, Obama Administration, Physics, Space, Technology

by Mitch Chester

As America debates its future course in space policy, recent events onthe solar systems largest planet are worthy of urgent and carefulreflection.

According toNASA.gov, a large object impacted with Jupiter on July 20,2009. Scientists are not sure yet, but they think the object may have been acomet.

Weve witnessed an event like this on Jupiter once before, a mere 15 yearsago (to the day) when the Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacted the Jovianatmosphere.

Also on July 20, Scientific Americanpublished an intriguing story about acomet that some speculate impacted Earths atmosphere about 12,900 yearsago, causing mass death and destruction. It is documented that our planethas been impacted in the past, and it is a virtual certainty that at some datein the future, it will be hit again, with more than small meteorites. As areminder, a small asteroid (estimated to be a few meters in diameter) lit upthe skies above northern Sudan on October 7, 2008, an event which NASA

states, occurs several times per year around the globe.

On July 18, USA Todaypublished a front-page article entitled, Whats our next step? Outlining the most favored ideas for the future ofmanned space flight, one of the options analyzed was traveling to an asteroid. Why? Near-Earth objects (NEOs) threaten our world, asoutlined in a priorSharedEmergency report entitled A Priority for the New NASA Administrator.

It is clear, human kind needs to perfect a deflection strategy that will divert, or destroy, asteroids and other threatening astronomical bodiesfrom impacting with what the late Carl Sagan affectionately refers to as the pale blue dot. See Mr. Sagans video.

We need to be ready for collisions from objects that come our way. It is a bit unnerving that in the space of only 15 years, (not even a fractionof a blink of the eye in space time) one of our celestial neighbors has been significantly impacted at least twicethat we know of.

NASA has been working for years on the study of Near Earth Objects. See a collection of its efforts, including a report on deflecting a NEO,dated April, 2009. Further research on this topic, and international funding, is imperative, without delay. With all the talk about returning tothe moon, or setting foot on Mars, much more emphasis needs to be placed on human and robotic space flight projects targeted onplanetary defense systems to avert devastation.

Of the known threats, clearly none of the identified and anticipated NEOs are certain to hit Earth anytime soon. However, the most likelyinvader to come uncomfortably close to us is Apophis, which will have encounters with our planet in 2029 and 2036. Variations in trajectoriesand warning times are certain for such objects, including Apophis. According to NASA, additional factors can influence the predicted motionin ways that depend on rarely known details, such as the spin of the asteroid, its mass, the way it reflects and absorbs sun-light, radiates heat,

Report from KCAL on events on Jupiter, posted July 21, 2009.

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and the gravitational pull of other asteroids passing nearby. Clearly, then, the need to search for undiscovered NEO threats, and be constantlyvigilant for known risks, is key.

The problem is not what we know today, but what we might suddenlydiscover about a newly found object tomorrow which poses a real threat toour orbital interests. We must be ready with a funded and sustainable

program to react to the unanticipated on relatively short notice.

The Obama Administration is currently studying space options, with onegroup headed by National Security Advisor James Jones and another led byformer Lockheed Martin CEO Norm Augustine. The Augustine group is setto issue an August report on human space flight options. Those studies willbe incomplete without a thorough and detailed analysis of near-Earth objectthreats and what space-faring nations can do about such challenges.

We hope the Jovian events are appreciated as a warning. Perhaps thesolar system is inadvertently sending us a clear message, at a timewhen we have the technology, to be proactive and preserve our frailhome for future generations. We ignore such signs at our extreme perilas future asteroids may not be as small as the one over Sudan last year,and not all have been discovered or tracked by scientists, despite theirbest effortswith limited funding.

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fromAstronomy, Carl Sagan, Cosmos,NASA,NASA and Space Policy, Obama Administration, Physics, Technology

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1.2009 July 23drdavepermalink

Mitch, thanks for the note onNSSPhoenix about Jovian Warning II. Great synopsis of the dangers and proximity in time of pastevents.

I will add you to our blogroll.

Cheers,

Dr Dave

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Deflection options we can achieve, with more exploration and study.




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