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Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change

The Impact of Climate Change on the River Jordan-Lake Kinneret (Israel) Ecosystem

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Moshe Gophen

MIGAL-Galilee Scientific Research Institute, Israel

Corresponding Author: Moshe Gophen, MIGAL-Galilee Scientific Research Institute, Israel. Email; [email protected]

Citation: Gophen M (2020) The Impact of Climate Change on the River Jordan-Lake Kinneret (Israel) Ecosystem. Jou EarSci&ClimChange: JESCC-105. DOI: 10.46715/jescc2020.10.1000105

Received Date: 9 September, 2020; Accepted Date: 28 September, 2020; Published Date: 5 October, 2020

Keywords: Kinneret; Watershed; Climate Change;

Nutrients; Hydrology; Phytoplankton

Introduction

Study Area

Lake Kinneret (Surface area-168 km2; Volume - 4 km2) and

its watershed is part of the Northern section of the Syrian-

African Great Rift Valley. The Watershed area (2730 km2)

of Lake Kinneret is stretched between 32° 40` and 33° 38`

North (Serruya 1978) [37]. The drainage basin length,

directed North-South axis is 110 km. The Altitude gradient

is between 2814 masl and 214 mbsl (average slope 2.75%).

The Lake is located between 320 42` 15``and 320 53` 44``

North and longitudes 350 30` 52`` and 350 38` 55`` East.

Lake Kinneret is a warm monomictic lake which is fully

mixed during cold and wet winter, from mid-December

until early May. (Serruya et al 1978; Gophen and Gal 1992;

Gophen 2019a) [15, 37, 44]. Three major headwater rivers

(Hatzbani, Banyas and Dan) flow southerly downstream

from the Hermon mountain region. The Hula Valley

drainage (1950`s) changed the hydrological conditions:

Jordan river crossing the Hula Valley splitting into two

canals which joint at the south end of the Hula Valley

flowing southerly downstream into Lake Kinneret

maintain its Water Level (WL) (Gvirzman 2002; Givati and

Rosenfeld 2007;Givati et al 2019; Gophen2018)[1,3,14, 23].

Jou EarSci&ClimChange: JESCC-105 1

Limnological Features of Lake Kinneret

The lake is stably stratified from May through Mid-December.

The content of anoxic Hypolimnion is rich with Ammonium,

CO2, and Sulfids. Stratification exist during May-early June and

De-stratification take occur from mid October through Mid

December. Lake management is aimed at water supply,

commercial fishery, recreation, and tourism. Lake Kinneret is

the only natural body of freshwater in Israel. (Serruya 1978)

[37]. Water supply from Lake Kinneret (about 106 m3 daily) is

carried out through the National Water Carrier (inaugurated

10.6.1964) (Serruya et al 1980). [38] Since 2010 desalinization

technology was implemented and lake water withdraw was

significantly reduced leaving free volume for different

consumers (Gophen 2019a) [15]. A dam was constructed at the

south end of the lake in 1934. A salty springs diversion was

operated in 1967 which caused together with heavy floods

(1968-1969) lake water salinity decline from 400 ppm to 210

ppm Chloride. Since Mid 1980`s climate change conditions

significantly affected the hydro-ecological trait of the

ecosystem (Serruya 1978; Gophen 2016b; 2018) [10, 14, 37].

The significance of those modification are discussed in this

paper.

Lake Kinneret supplies national multi-ecological services. Besides water supply and recreation, the lake is also exploited for fishing by about 200 licensed fishermen, who remove commercially an average of 1600 ton of fish (94 kg/ha) per

Abstract

The long-term record of River Jordan-Lake Kinneret ecosystem indicates some significant climate condition

changes: water temperature increase, decline in rainfall, and diminishing river discharges and lake water inflows

accompanied by a reduction in nitrogen and a slight increase in phosphorus in the Lake upper layers (Epilimnion).

Lake Water level decreased, Prolongation of Residence Time was documented, nutrient inputs and dynamics

modifications resulting water quality deterioration. As a result of temperature elevation and nitrogen deficiency,

the biomass of Peridinium spp significantly reduced and was replaced by Cyanobacterial biomass enhancement.

Dryness trend expressed as enhanced frequency of drought seasons initiated an elevation of lake water salinity. It

has been suggested that these changes in the phytoplankton community structure are caused by regional climate

change. This study evaluates a multi-annual respective approach although the summer is the most critical. The

objective of this research is evaluate the background of the ecosystem structure modification aimed at define

future potential management design.

DOI: 10.46715/jescc2020.10.1000105

mailto:[email protected]


annum. Before the 2000`s the zooplanktivorous fish, Lavnun (Bleak, Acanthobrama spp.), comprises 55% by weight of total catches and over 50% of the stock biomass. Eight out of the 24 recorded species are commercial, with the native Tilapine, Sarotherodon galilaeus (Galilee St. Peters `s Fish; Hebrew: Amnoon Ha`Galil; Arabic Musht Abyad) (average of 326 t/year) the most important in the commercial landings. The protection of water quality and water level (WL) management are of national concern. The definition of uppermost and lowest WL maintenance is a significant part of the management policy. The WL definition is limited between two constraints – the highest 208.8 and the potential lowest of 215.00-but water quality and fishery management might deserve amplitude ranges in-between these two. Nevertheless, the present study is aimed at the impact of climate change on nutrient dynamics and the attendant consequences on the algal community structure, i.e. water quality (Serruya et al 1980; Gophen 2018) [38, 14].

Globality of Climate Change and Cyanobacteria Outbreak

Global climate change was widely documented whilst its consequence with the Cyanobacteria global enhancement became recently internationally common topic of research. A vast relevant scientific information was documented by Reichwaldt and Ghadouani,( 2012), O`Neil ,et al (2012)., Toth and Padisak. (1986), Kosten et al (2012), Paerl and Huisman (2008). Gophen (2019b), Johnk,et al (2008). Jensch and Belerkuhnlein (2008), Fristachi, and Sinclair, (2008), Izydorczyk, et al (2008), Taranu et al, (2012) and Wu et al (2008) [1, 16, 27, 28, 29 , 30, 34, 35, 36, 41, 42, 43]. The main impact on Cyanobacteria global outbreak are climate change condition, mostly Temperature increase and consequent nutrient dynams controlled by Hydrological modifications.

Material and Methods

Data Sources

The long-term datasets (1970–2018) of Lake Kinneret and its watershed, including the water and air temperature, rainfall gauge, nutrient dynamics, lake plankton community structure, lake water level (WL) and river discharges (in mcm/y, that is 106 m3 annually),(LKDB-IOLR 1969-2020; Gophen 1992; 2019a; Gvirzman 2002; Givati et al 2019) [3, 15, 23, 31, 44] were statistically evaluated. Data were obtained from the following sources: Annual Reports, Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, annual reports of the Israeli National Meteorological Service and the Israeli National Hydrological Service (National Water Authority). Other data sources were MIGAL, Hula Project Service (Gophen 2018) [14], Interim and Annual Reports by Mekorot Water Supply Company Ltd., Monitoring Unit Jordan District, Agriculture Ministry Northern Branch – Upper Galilee Office, and TAHAL Water Planning for Israel.

Statistical Methods

Statistical analyses (fractional polynomial regression, Linear Regression and simple averages, Line scattered) were carried out using STATA 9.1.

Statistical analyses (fractional polynomial regression) (FP) were carried out using STATA 9.1, Statistics-Data Analysis: Chapter Fracpoly-Fractional, Polynomial regression StataCorp. 2005. Stata Statistical Software: Release 9. College Stration TX: StataCorp LP.pp.357-370; See also: Royston, P. and D. G. Altman, 1994.) Regression using Fractional Polynomial of continuous covariates: Parsimonious parametric modeling (with discussion): Applied Statistics 43: 429-467.) The purpose of FPs is to increase the flexibility by the family of conventional polynomial models. Although polynomials are popular in data analysis, linear and quadratic functions are severely limited in their range of curve shape, whereas cubic and higher order curve often produce undesirable artifacts such as "edge effects and "waves" (STATA 9)".

Sampling Procedures

The sampling procedures (spatial, temporal and batimetrical

program) for the analysis of phytoplankton biomass

calculation and chemical parameters are available in LKDB-

IOLR Co. Ltd. Jordan water samples were collected at the

station located at Huri Bridge (Gesher Ha’Pkak). This sampling

site is located downstream of the Hula Valley and 12 km to the

north of the lake, and represents all historical water input

quality used since 60 years of Lake Kinneret research,

Information about sampling procedures (frequencies, location,

sample treatment is given in (Serruya 1978; Givati et al 2019;

Gophen 2018; 2019b, c; Gophen and Gal 1992; LKDB-IOLR

1969-2020) [3, 14, 16, 17, 31, 37].

Results and Discussion

Climate Change: Temperature, Rainfall, River discharge:

Figure 1: Temporal (1963-2011) trend of changes (LOWESS 0.8) of daily Maxima (upper) and Minima (lower) of air temperature (0^C) measured in Dafna station (northern Kinneret watershed).



Data given in Figure 1 indicates temperature decline between 1960-1980 and increase afterwards in the Kinneret watershed

region. Consequently elevation of lake water temperature increase was documented (Figure 2). Several documentations of the

relation between Temperature elevation and Cyanobacteria enhancements were published by Toth and Padisak (1986) [42] and

Paerl and Huisman (2008) [35]. Since Mid-1980`s Rainfall decline (Figure 3) and consequently Headwaters discharge reduced

(Givati et al 2019; Gophen 2018; Gophen 2019b,c) [3, 14,16, 17] resulting Nutrient concentrations decline and consequently

reduction of their loads in the river inflows (Figures 4,5,6).

Moreover, dryness trend enhancement increased frequency of drought season. Lake water inputs diminished, and Water level

declined (Figure 7) and Thermal structure modified: Epilimnion became thinner by 4% and the Hypolimnion by 23.4% resulting

Nutrient concentrations decline in the Epilimnion and increase in the Hypolimnion (Figures 8,9).

Figure 2: Trend of changes (LOWESS; 0.8) of annual mean Temperature of whole water column (left) and in the Epilimnion (right)

in Lake Kinneret (1969-2008).

Temperature increase of 1.2 0C of lake Kinneret waters (whole water column and upper layer, Epilimnion) from mid-1980`s clearly

indicates climate change.

Figure 3: Annual rainfall (mm) (left) and Jordan River Discharge (mcm: Million Cubic Meters/y) (right): FP regressions (upper

panels) and Line Scatter (lower panels)



Long term (1970-2020) trend of climate change confirmed by rainfall and river Jordan discharge decline is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 4: FP regression between nutrient (Total Kijeldhal, TN) concentrations (ppm) and Jordan River Discharge (mcm/y)

(lower panels), and between Nutrient (Total Kiekdhal, TN) loads in Jordan River (ton/y) and years (upper panels).

Figure 5: FP Regressions between nutrients concentrations (ppm) and Years (right), and total loads (ton) and Jordan river

Discharge (mcm/y) (left)

Figures 4 & 5 indicates the impact of climate change on Nutrients (Phosphorus, Nitrogen) inputs from the watershed into the Lake

through Jordan River discharge: the decline of total loads (ton) and concentration (ppm) of tptal P, total N and Kijeldhal -N are

shown.



Figure 6: Linear Regression (parameters are given) between River Jordan Discharge (m3/s) and total Nitrogen load input

through the Jordan flows. Calculated r2 values for other nutrients are: TP - 0.596, TIN - 0.776, SO4 - 0.816, Org. N - 0.606, Chloride

- 0.886 (p<0.0001).

Figure 7: Ten year Group averages of monthly means of water level in Lake Kinneret (1933-2018).

0

200

400

600

TN

-Hu

ri:

t/m

on

th

0 10 20 30 40 50

Discharge (m^3 per second)

R^2 = 0.86

p<0.0001



WL Altitude

(MBSL)

Epilimnion

Volume

(mcm)

Hypolimnion Volume

(mcm)

209 1981 2411

210 1866 2365

211 1864 2122

212 1839 1983

213 1814 1846

Table 1: WL Decline of 209-213 (4 m): Epilimnion volume

reduction of 4% (from 1891 to 1814 mcm*) and Hypolimnion

volume reduction of 23.4% (from 2411 to 1846 mcm*)

*mcm=106m3

Data shown in Figure 6 indicates the linear relation between

discharge and nutrient load capacities: the higher the

discharge is the higher is he load inputs. Figure 7 and Table 1,

represent the long-term decline of Water Level (WL) in Lake

Kinneret.

The data given in Figure 8 indicates the different response of

the Epilimnion and the Hypolimnion to Water Level decline:

the Hypolimnion volume reduced by 23.4% and that of the

epilimnion by 4.5% only. Moreover nutrient concentrations

and total mass in the Hypolimnion increase and that of the

Epilimnion decline (Figure 8 & 9). Date given in Figure 10

indicates the decline trend of Nitrogen stock in the Epilimnion

and Hypolimnion and obviously in the whole lake. The

resulted conditions of nutrient (P and N) stocks decline of

Nitrogen, increase of Phosphorus and decrease of the TN/TP

mass ratio. These long-term changes initiated conditions of

Peridinium suppression whereas suitable for Cyanobacteria

enhancement as shown in Figures 12, 13 & 14.Peridinium

require Nitrogen and Cyanobacteria are able to incorporate

atmospheric Nitrogen by Nitrogenase enzyme through

Nitrogen fixation process. Therefore Peridinium disappeared

and replaced by Cyanobacteria. A documentation of the

invasion of the HFCB`s species Aphanizomenon ovalisporum

(APO) was done by Hadas et al (2012) [25]. The impact of

insufficient ambient Nitrogen accompanied by APO ability to

maintain atmospheric Nitrogen fixation supported its invasion

(Hadas et al 2012) [25]. The Nitrogen decline not only

enhanced bloom of a Diazotrophic Cyanobacterium but also

generated a modification of the Phytoplankton community

structure in Lake Kinneret (Hadas et al 2015). [26] These kind

of changes were widely studied: O`Neil et al (2012) [34]

indicate HFCB domination as a symptom of Eutrophication.

Essential consideration is given in many studies to the role of

Nitrogen in association with Phosphorus availabilities to the

outbreak of Cyanobacteria (Guilford and Hecky 2000;

McQueen and Lean 1987; Smith 1983; Fristachi and Sinclair).

Residence Time

As a result of WL decline, nutrient concentrations in the

Hypolimnion significantly increased whilst in the Epilimnion a

minor change was documented (Figure 10, 11). Nevertheless,

dissimilar developments of Epilimnetic Nitrogen and

Phosphorus concentrations occur: Nitrogen concentration

decrease, whilst Phosphorus concentration was partly stable

and slightly increase by dust deposition (Nishri 2014) [33] and

released from bottom sediments, therefore TN/TP mass ratio

decline (Figure 11) .The prominent consequence of climate

change was Nitrogen insufficiency (Figure 10). Nitrogen

depletion caused Peridinium suppression and enhancement of

Cyanobacteria. Peridinium domination decline occur as a

result of the ultimate demand for available Nitrogen by

Peridinium, whilst Cyanobacteria recover Nitrogen

insufficiency by Nitrogen fixation (Figures 12, 13). Water

inflow decline affected WL decline and consequently

prolongation of Residence Time (RT) which supported also

enhancement of changes of nutrient dynamics and

modification of Phytopkankton composition (Figure 14).

Residence Time (RT) computation was as follows:

RT (in months or years) = V/W.

Where:

W = Monthly inflow in mcm per month (106 m3/month)

V = Monthly values of lake Volume in mcm (106 m3)

Temperature increase and dryness enhancement and the

increase of negative trend of Kinneret Water Balance caused

elevation of lake water salinity making the need for RT

shortening (water exchange) critical.



Salinity

Another aspect of long term Climate Change development was

the increased salinity of Lake Kinneret waters (as shown in

figures 15 &16.

The major supply of salt into the lake is fluxed through the lake

bottom through surface infiltration (superficial) and welling

up. Salts contribution through rivers and tributaries inflows

are much lower than the sub-lacustrine sources. Until late

1957 about 25% (total about 160000 tons) of salt input

influxed into the lake through the runoff of two hot-salty

springs located close to the north-western lake shoreline.

Those two springs were diverted (1967) and about 40,000

tons of salt were eliminated from the lake budget (Serruya

1978: Gvirzman 2002; Gophen and Gal 1992; Gophen 2016b,

2018 ;) [10, 14, 23, 37]. As a result lake water salinity declined

from 400 to 210 ppm Chloride. Results indicated that open

Dam operation enhanced water replacement (exchange)

(Gophen 2020a, b,c) [20, 21, 22] which is Residence Time

shortening and salinity decline. It is therefore recommended

to enhance water exchange (shorter Residence Time) through

open Dam or pumping regime to remove salt and other

pollutants (including biomass of Cyanobacteria (Figures 15,

16). Increase salinity might be favoured by Cyanobacteri

(Tonk et al 2007) [40].

Summary

Precipitation decline followed by headwater discharge

reduction caused high frequency of drought conditions

Temperature increase and dryness enhancement Increase of

negative trend of Kinneret Water Balance caused elevation of

lake water salinity the need for RT shortening became critical,

that is to say- water exchange enhancement is crucial

Future Perspectives Recommendations

A) Enhance Nitrogen input from the watershed (potential

source: Peat soil)

B) Reduce Phophorus inputs from the watershed

C) Enhance Water exchange i.e. shorter RT (potential

implementation: Withdraw through an open Dam; input

desalinized water).

D) Renovation of Fishery management: implement fishing

pressure on the most common zooplanctivore fishes, Bleaks,

enhance stocking of known efficient Cyanobacteria consumer,

Silver Carp (not reproduce in Lake Kinneret).

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Copyright: ©2020 Gophen M. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License,

which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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