journal of african interdisciplinary studies (jais) issn ... · it is into this category that flood...

Journal of African Interdisciplinary Studies (JAIS): ISSN 2523-6725 (online) September 2019 Vol. 3, No. 9 Citation: Mbirithi, D.M & Macmbinji, V.O. Geo-environmental Disaster Risk Assessment in the Changamwe

Sub-county, Mombasa, Kenya.. Journal of African Interdisciplinary Studies, 3(9), 69 – 86.

Copyright © 2019 Centre for Democracy, Research and Development (CEDRED), Nairobi, Kenya.

http://cedred.org/jais/index.php/issues

69

Geo-environmental Disaster Risk Assessment in the Changamwe Sub-county, Mombasa,

Kenya

By

Dr. Daniel Mange Mbirithi & Vincent O. Macmbinji

E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]

Abstract

This study aims at establishing the relationship between land use and land cover change and

the risk of floods in Changamwe Sub-county, Mombasa, Kenya. The study aimed at

highlighting the risks involved in flooding as well as come with recommendations based on

precautionary measures for floods. The study had three main objectives, to establish the type

of geo-hazard; to examine the social-economic effects of floods in; to determine the

precautionary measure of flooding .Random sampling was used to select 4 households per

each of the 5 wards. Data was collected using questionnaires. Data analysis involved use of

descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze first hand data. Statistical Packages for Social

Sciences (SPSS) software was used in analyzing quantitative data. A result of data analysis

was presented using frequency distribution tables, bar graphs, and pie charts. The study found

out that social amenities (housing and sanitation) were adversely affected by floods. The

preferred precautionary measure was moving to high grounds adversely. The study

recommended that meteorological department come up with manuals of flood management.

In addition, the study recommends capacity build on precautionary ways of dealing with

impeding floods.

Key Words: Kenya, Geo-environmental, Disaster, Risk, Assessment, Floods


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]





70

Geo-environmental Disaster Risk Assessment in the Changamwe Sub-county, Mombasa,

Kenya

By

Dr. Daniel Mange Mbirithi & Vincent O. Macmbinji

Background Natural hazards, otherwise known as environmental hazards, are generally defined as

geophysical events that can potentially cause large-scale economic damage and physical

injury or death (Johnson et al., 2000: 216). It is into this category that flood hazards fall.

Floods can be predicted to a reasonable extent with the exception of flash flood, whose scale

and nature are often less certain (Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), 2005).

Flood forecasting and warning is one of the most important tools to reduce flood risks

and minimize impact on life and property. At present many rural populations most in need of

hydro-meteorological and environmental information are not able to access it and have to

depend heavily on highly refined perception of nature through the interpretation of signs

(International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), 2005). Communities have their own

early warning systems woven into their culture. They observe nature and changes that take

place in the flora, the behavior of animals, the rivers and clouds. These changes according to

them provide signals for impending disasters (Sharma, 2002). This knowledge is the sum of

facts that are known or learned from experience or acquired through observation and study

and handed down from generation to generation. Communities identify themselves easily with

Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) which have enabled them to live in harmony with their

environments for generations (UNEP, 2008). The question is whether the traditional methods

are still being used to predict weather in Mombasa, Kenya

Several disasters have hampered the planning for settlements and social amenities

structures within the Mombasa County. Included amongst these are geo-environmental

disasters attributed to natural or anthropogenic orders. The present study focuses on both

phenomena especially within the Changamwe area. The reason for picking out this area is its

rapidly growing population rate implying greater population that gets affected both by

anthropogenic and natural sources of environmental disorder. There have been cases of

disasters attributed to ground water and surface water pollutions in the Mombasa County.

Whereas people can avoid the contaminated water to mitigate against the allied disasters

associated with the water, it has been difficult to control or mitigate against the predictable

floods in the residential areas of Changamwe Sub-county. It is based on this back drop that

the current study sought to investigate the social-economic of flooding in changamwe Sub-

county.

Two thirds of the coastal disasters recorded each year are associated with extreme

weather events such as storms and floods. Floods are the most common and widespread of all-

natural disasters (Bhanumurthy and Behera, 2008). In terms of coastal flooding it is estimated

that about 50 million people are estimated to be at such risk by 2080 due to climate change

and increasing population densities. Skilodimou et al., 2003, found out that floods are the

greatest cause of economic losses from natural disasters, mainly in more developed countries,

and they are a major cause of disaster-related deaths mainly in the less developed countries.

In recent years, Kenya has been exposed to both natural and man-made disasters

which include floods, landslides, drought, fire, HIV/AIDS, terrorism, ethnic clashes and road

accidents (United Nations International Strategy Disaster Reduction, 2006-2007). Both

natural and man-made disasters cause a lot of suffering to those affected such as loss of life,






71

disruption of economic activities and education programmes. According to Climate Change and

Development in Changamwe Sub-county, 2010, Changamwe Sub-county Flood Plain is located

near the West of the Indian Ocean and is one of the highly densely populated regions in Mombasa

County. These frequent floods pose serious consequences on education sector because schools get

submerged temporarily, books and documents are destroyed and students and teachers are

displaced while the schools are used as shelter by the displaced individuals.

Statement of the Problem

Mombasa County has had a history of extreme climatic events including floods that have

killed many people caused damages to property nearly every year (Awuor et al., 2008).

Human activities such as fishing, education, transport, communication, mining, trading, and

agriculture can be at risk due to flooding. The flooding experienced in the County has

damaged productive land, hence causing agricultural losses which leads to increased food

insecurity. In addition, it has also damaged infrastructure such as roads, bridges, pipelines, as

well as electricity and telephone lines. According to the Ministry of Health (Mombasa, 2018)

poor sanitation has led to outbreak of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, cholera and

typhoid. These diseases affect people’s ability to be productive hence in turn lowering the

productivity of the area. In the recent past, Changamwe Sub-county has been facing floods

leading to geo-environmental disaster. This study was undertaken to determine the effects of

land use and land cover change on flooding in Changamwe. The area had flood occurrences

over the past years and the most severe was experienced in 2006 (Kebede et. al, 2010).

Flooding was also experienced between the months of April and May, 2018 which led to

displacement of people, destruction of houses, deaths and outbreak of diseases. It is from the

aforementioned that the current study sought to investigate geo-environmental disaster risk

assessment in Changamwe Sub-county, Mombasa County, Kenya.

Study Objectives

a) To establish the type of geo-hazard in Changamwe Sub-county

b) To examine the social-economic effects of floods in Changamwe Sub-county

c) To assess the precautionary measures of flooding in Changamwe Sub-county

Review of Literature

Historically, all communities living in flood plains have always created strategies of dealing

with floods and many studies identify such communities to have a traditional flood culture,

characterized by adjustments to mitigate flood damage. Due to frequency of long history of

flooding, it is possible to find collective action patterns and cognitive patterns which are

adjusted to the hazard situation; through the elimination of doubt, thus making the situation

predictable (Kates, 1978). Social capital e.g. reciprocal support among neighbours, support

from immediate family members and wider kinship networks, is a vital safe net for people in

coping with recurrent flooding (ProVention, 2008). Floods coping mechanisms differ

depending on the nature and severity of the floods.

According to United Nations International Strategy Disaster Reduction (UNISDR),

(2006-2007), when disasters strike, many people are affected but the most hit are children and

especially those who attend school. In addition, infrastructure in schools is greatly destroyed

or damaged therefore making it hard for learners to continue with their learning activities for a

while. This is supported by the 2011 flood episode in Thailand which affected an estimated

3,214 learning institutions by causing a lot of damage to infrastructure(Thailand’s worst






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flooding in decades impacts on education and culture heritage, 2011). Schools were closed

and learners were forced to stay at home. In 2010, floods in Pakistan caused by the monsoon

winds disrupted education services and severely damaged school infrastructure (Harris, 2010).

This clearly shows the damage disasters can cause to education worldwide.

The most basic coping mechanism is that of the family. Kinship is a strong bond and

in times of need people will first look up to their families and relatives for support (Wijkman,

1984). Del Ninno et al. , (2000) for example reports on how borrowing and selling belongings

and reducing food consumption became short term economic coping mechanisms for poor

families affected by the extreme Bangladesh flooding of 1998.It is based on this notion that

the current study sought to investigate the precautionary measures used during flooding.

Community level action strongly suggests that response at this level may be of key

importance in influencing public health. One crucial area in terms of public safety is warning

and evacuation, for which community based activities, may provide the key to survival (Few

et al., 2004). Religious/ social institutions help individuals to cope during emergency periods.

They provide leadership, shelter, emotional support and help with burials. In some areas,

churches are also called upon to ensure emergency aid is distributed equitably. Internal

political/ economic organizations serve as point through which the government can provide

assistance to the victims. Mutual aid groups such as agricultural cooperatives and labor unions

provide leadership as well as some degree of financial support (Wijkman, 1984).Response to

flood risks that involves a change in action or policy is referred to as adaptation, and the

ability of people and systems to bring about such changes is referred to as adaptive capacity

(Few et al., 2004). As with coping capacity adaptive capacity of people and systems is shaped

by social, economic and political processes (Adger et al., 2003). It is still not clear what kind

of precautionary measures are put into place by religious institutions and other stakeholders.

The current study sought to fill this gap.

Khan (2011) documented the causes and associated socio-economic impacts of floods

on the Swat valley, Pakistan. This study on flood identified factors intensifying floods

acceleration included unprecedented encroachments over the active floodplain, population

pressure as well as deforestation and overgrazing in the catchment area of river Swat. There is

a need to determine the relationship between flooding and drainage channel and built-up

areas. A Study by Lokonon (2013) analyzed the impact of floods on the population’s welfare

and the maximal acceptable risk by population settling in flood-prone areas in Cotonou. The

study reveals that households are really affected by the negative consequences of floods. The

study failed to emphasis the role of built up area and infrastructure as factors resulting to

flooding. Despite the fact that this study looked into impacts of flooding, it was conducted in

another area with a different sample therefore the findings can only be generalized to a sample

with similar population.

Ezemonye & Emeribe (2011) examined the physical characteristics of floods and

management adaptations to flood hazards in the Imo River basin. Findings show the velocity

of the floodwaters under peak discharge usually between August and September was observed

to be sluggish, while being faster during recession in mid-October. The mitigation measures

used included emergency evacuation and rescheduling activities. However, the study failed to

address the implications of these findings that the area is susceptible to devastating flooding.

Attua et. al., (2009) analyzed the performance of existing land use and compare it with the

expected land use performance criteria for steep land scape and flood plains. The study used

five broad categories of land use that were integrated with slope and elevation of the land. The

study however did not provide data on land use trends and the impact of built up areas on

flooding. Despite the fact that this study examined the physical characteristics of flooding, it






73

did not investigate the social-economic aspects of flooding. It is based on this gap that the

present study sought to determine the social-economic impacts of flooding in Changamwe

Sub-county.

According to Worries (2010), floods caused serious damage to schools in

Muzaffargarh District in the province of Pujab in Pakistan. During the floods, 1.6 million

children were affected as schools were damaged or the same were used as shelters. Some

7,820 schools were partially or fully damaged by floods leaving children notbeing able to go

to school. In year 2007, the country of Bangladesh had over 4,600 primary schools being

closed while others were used as shelters by affected families. This resulted to school

attendance dropping by 20%. According to Emergency Appeal Hurricane Sandy (2012),

hurricane sandy passed to the west of Haiti in October 2012 causing heavy rains and flooding.

Hundreds of public buildings and facilities including schools were destroyed.

Nicolai (2003) observed that learning institutions lack capacities to deal with floods

and that disasters resulting from floods in schools can be prevented and its effects

considerably reduced if schools take steps to reduce the risks. It is important that school

communities understand how best to protect themselves and school property from these risks.

The author further noted that it is less expensive to reduce disaster risks compared to the cost

of loss of life and property. Lack of early warning mechanism and low capacity of teachers

and education administrators in disaster preparedness and prevention have been identified as

the factors making schools very vulnerable (Nicolai, 2003).

Conceptual Framework

The figure below shows the relationship between the geo-harzad type, their social and

economic effects and the mitigation measures. The socio-economic effects are determined by

the magnitude of the geo-hazard. This paper also looks at the mitigation measures of the geo-

hazard in Changamwe area.

Source: Modified from Migosi (2014)

Study area

Changamwe constituency lies between latitude 3o55’30’’ S – 4o10’00’’S and longitude

39o34’30’’E- 39o39’0’’E, with a total land mass of approximately 16 km2. The administrative

boundary comprises of several wards Kipevu ward, Airport (Port Reitz) ward, Changamwe

ward and Chaani (Kipevu) ward. Changamwe is located on coastal lowland with extensive

flat areas rising gently to approximately 57 m above sea level. The average temperatures

range between 200C and 300C. The average rainfall total received in the area is approximately

1162 mm. Heavy rains are received in May whose average is 319 mm. The relative humidity

of the area is usually high approximately 77.6 %. The dominant soil types include sandy to

Type of Geo-hazard Floods

Landslides

Precautionary

Measures

Social Effects

Economic

Effects






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loamy soils which are well drained and very deep. In different areas the soil varies from sandy

clay loam to sandy with a topsoil of fine sand to sandy loam (GOK, 1998).

Methodology

The study used the cross sectional descriptive survey design, as it sought to establish and

describe a prevailing phenomenon. The design was suitable for this study given that extensive

data on traditional knowledge, perceptions and precautionary measures associated with flood

risks was collected at one point in time. Random sampling was used to select 4 households

per each ward. Therefore the sample consisted of 20 households. This study will involve an

interactive process of field work and data collection and data analysis. Data was collected

using questionnaires. Data analysis involved use of descriptive statistics. SPSS was used in

analyzing quantitative data. Results of data analysis will be presented using frequency

distribution tables, bar graphs, and pie charts.

Data Analysis and Interpretation

Table 1 Number of Respondents per ward in Changamwe

Wards in Changamwe Frequency Valid Percent

Port Reitz 4 21.1%

Kipevu 5 26.3%

Airport 3 15.8%

Miritini 4 21.1%

Chaani 3 15.8%

Total 19 100%

Source Research data from author

Figure 1 Number of Respondents







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Table 2 Gender of the Main Respondent

Gender Frequency Valid Percent

Male 11 50

Female 11 50

Total 22 100


Figure 2 Gender of the Respondent


Findings show that there was an equal number of respondents 11 (50%) male while 11(50%)

female. The findings were presented in Figure 2.






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Figure 3 Movement of land slide


The study sought to find out the landslide intensity and/or movement. Majority of the

respondents 55% indicated that there was a larger area affected by the land movement (15-20

meters). This was due to the heavy down pour experienced

Table 3 Number of times flooding occurs

Frequency Valid Percent

Twice 10 47.6%

Thrice 11 52.4%

Total 21 100%







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Figure 4 Flooding occurrences per year


The study sought to find out how many times do flooding occur in an area. Equal number of

respondents 52% and 48% indicated that the floods were experienced thrice and twice

respectively

Table 4 Major Source of livelihood

Frequency Valid Percent

Trading 1 4.5

Livestock production 2 9.1

Beer Brewing 3 13.6

Fishing 1 4.5

Charcoal Burning 1 4.5

Manufacturing 1 4.5

Wage labour 13 59.1







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Figure 5 Major Source of livelihood







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Table 5 Effects of flooding on the following areas

Areas Severity Frequency Valid Percent

Crop (Production)

Moderate 4 18.2%

Severe 18 81.8%

Crop (Stocks)

Moderate 8 36.4%

Severe 14 63.6%

Livestock

Moderate 5 25%

Severe 15 75%

Health

Moderate 16 80%

Severe 4 20%

Water (Access)

Moderate 12 54.5%

Severe 10 45.5%

Sanitation (Access)

Moderate 5 23.8%

Severe 16 76.2%

Infrastructure

Moderate 6 28.6%

Severe 15 71.4%

Housing

Moderate 3 13.6%

Severe 19 86.4%

Property

No effect 1 4.5%

Moderate 2 9.1%

Severe 19 86.4%







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Figure 6 Social-economic effects of flooding


In relation to social-economic effects of flooding, the study found out that there had been so

much loss of property 86.4%. The most affected social amenities were housing and sanitation

with 86.4% and 76.2% respectively. Economic effect ranged from crop production, livestock

and infrastructure with 81.8%, 75% and 71.4 respectively. The data was presented in table 5

and figure 6. These finding contracts those of Nicoli who found out that learning institution

were adversely affected by floods.






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Table 6 Property/Assets Lost due to floods

Property/Assets Frequency Valid Percent

Bed

Yes 2 9.5

No 19 90.5

Fishing Net

Yes 1 4.8

No 20 95.2

Boat Canoe

Yes 1 4.8

No 20 95.2

Bicycle

Yes 2 9.5

No 18 85.7

Radio

Yes 2 9.5

No 19 90.5

Plough

Yes 1 4.8

No 20 95.2

Hoe

Yes 1 4.8

No 20 95.2

Figure 7\; Property/Assets Lost due to floods


Due to the magnitude of the floods the study sought to find out how much as well as the

properties lost during the flooding. The study revealed that more house hold items (beddings,

bicycle and radio) with 9.5% were lost during the flooding. The data was presented in table 6

and figure 7.






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Table 7 Precautionary Measure of flooding

Is the Method

Effective

Frequency Valid

Percent

Shift to Higher Grounds Strongly Agree 19 95%

Agree 1 5%

Making Sand Banks

Strongly Agree 9 42.9%

Agree 12 57.1%

Making Fallows/Canals/Channels Strongly Agree 10 47.6%

Agree 11 52.4%

Raising the floor of the house Strongly Agree 13 61.9%

Agree 5 23.8%

Not Sure 3 14.3%

Harvesting Rain Water Strongly Agree 5 23.8%

Agree 14 66.7%

Not Sure 2 9.5%

Figure 8 Precautionary Measures


The study sought to identify precautionary measures in relation to flooding. The findings were

presented in table 7 and figure 8. Majority of the respondents 95% indicated that shift to

higher grounds would be best for them with only 47.6% suggesting making

fallows/canals/channels to control flooding in an area as a management strategy.






83

Conclusion and Recommendations

For disaster preparedness to be achieved in schools in Changamwe and other areas in

Mombasa , the respective government agencies should promote capacity building in the

various sectors of the economy such as education, agriculture, health and transport to prevent

havoc during flooding The government meteorological department should develop Safety

Manuals on flood disasters management. The Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education

should come up with a lasting solution on floods in hospitals and schools in order for

treatment as well as learning to go on without disruption.






84

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Appendix Map of the Study Area

Map of Changamwe: Source (Survey of Kenya, 2010)


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