joshua s. siegel, managing principal
DESCRIPTION
Examiners Forum: Non-control Equity Options for Community Banks. Joshua S. Siegel, Managing Principal. New York-based investment management company providing private capital to U.S. community banks Manages $3.1 billion Investments in over 220 community banks across 43 States - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Joshua S. Siegel, Managing Principal
Examiners Forum:
Non-control Equity Options for Community Banks
2
New York-based investment management company
providing private capital to U.S. community banks
Manages $3.1 billion
Investments in over 220 community banks across 43 States
Pioneered use of hybrid capital to invest in community
banks
owns a minority interest in StoneCastle Partners— Manages $1.5+ billion of private equity— Spinout of Harvard endowment private equity unit
3
StoneCastle’s Investment Footprint is NationalStoneCastle’s Investment Footprint is National
Investment team has invested $5.8 billion in over 400 banks across 47 States
Investment Size
SmallerLarger
Investment Size
SmallerLarger
4
Reference – Key public and proprietary information
Analytics – Automated Key Metrics Monitoring – Any stat defined by Management Portfolio – Portfolio Tracking and Management Accounting – All data fed to Accounting System
to ensure data is consistently applied across Management, Risk, and Accounting
Ratings – Automated and Manual Grading Trading - Automated Trading Platform
Proprietary Investment Technology Platform – RAMPARTProprietary Investment Technology Platform – RAMPART
5
Market Overview
Community Banking Model
Investment Process
Demographic and Economic Overview
Regulatory Capital Options
Federal Government Initiatives and the Private Market
— Non-control Equity Options
Outlook
Topics of DiscussionTopics of Discussion
6
Market OverviewMarket Overview
7
Consolidation has resulted in improved credit quality
Weaker banks typically acquired by stronger banks or have failed
Number of Commercial Banks Continues to DeclineNumber of Commercial Banks Continues to Decline
Source: FDIC
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 1Q09
8
While the number of banks continues to decrease, the number of branches continues to increase
Internet Banking May Not Be The FutureInternet Banking May Not Be The Future
Source: FDIC
9
Highly fragmented industry - 8,131 community banks have less than $10 billion of assets
— 98.6% of total U.S. banks— $3.0 trillion of combined assets — $318 billion of combined equity capital
Number of Institutions by Asset Size at 3/31/09Number of Institutions by Asset Size at 3/31/09
Source: FDIC
Greater than $10 Bn
115 Institutions (1%)
$1 Bn to $10 Bn
576 Institutions (7%)
$100 Million to $1 Bn
4,505 Institutions
(55%)
Less than $100 Million
3,050 Institutions
(37%)
10
Money Center Banks— Capital markets activities— Available-for-sale securities…FAS 157— Alternative mortgage products
Regional Banks— First come Innovators, followed by Imitators, and then
come the Idiots, whose avarice undoes the very innovations they are trying to use to get rich.
-- Paraphrase of Warren Buffett
Community Banks— Deviation from core banking strategy— Expansion into higher risk loans without enough
capital— Expansion out of footprint, rapid growth, bad markets
Different Banks Have Different Root ProblemsDifferent Banks Have Different Root Problems
11
Source: FDIC
Number of FDIC-Insured "Problem" InstitutionsNumber of FDIC-Insured "Problem" Institutions
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1Q09
Problem Banks
Failed Banks
217
Failures
305 FDIC-Insured “problem" institutions as of Q1 2009 with 21 failures vs. 1,400 and 217, respectively, in 1988
1,430 banks were placed on watch at the beginning of 1992 185 banks have failed since 1992
12
How is this cycle different from the S&L crisis?
— Deregulation
— Insufficient capital
— Risk management tools
— Gap risk
— Bloodletting already occurred in 1980s
— Shadow banking market
— Derivatives and other structured finance tools
A Different Cycle This TimeA Different Cycle This Time
13
Putting Things in PerspectivePutting Things in Perspective
Banks are generally less risky than other corporations
Banks have performed similar to A/BBB corporate credits since ‘34
Banks are on average 40+ years old…can not be high risk and last that long without failing
Below InvestmentGrade Corporations
Banks
S&L
CrisisFDIC
Formed
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
(1) Source: FDIC, Moody’s Corporate Default and Recovery Rates, 1920-2008, and Historical Default Rates of FDIC-Insured Commercial Banks, 1934–1996, Joshua Siegel et al, June 7, 2001.
14
Bank Defaults vs. GDP Growth
Bank Defaults vs. GDP Growth
Bank Defaults vs. Recessions
Bank Defaults vs. Recessions
Bank defaults generally uncorrelated to GDP growth…bank earnings are highly correlated Prior recessions have had little impact on bank defaults Default experience in 1980s generally a consequence of bank de-regulation and insufficient capital
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
2.00%
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Def
ault
Rat
e
Recession Period
Bank Default Rate
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Co
mm
erci
al B
ank
Def
ault
Rat
e
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
GD
P G
row
th R
ate
Bank Default Rate GDP Growth Rate
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
2.00%
15
Community Banking Model
Community Banking Model
16
Community banks play an important role in their local markets
—Cornerstone of their communities
—Provide essential services to under-served, rural and suburban markets
—Experienced, local management teams with large ownership stakes
—Intimate knowledge of their customers and local economies – more informed credit underwriting
—Play a substantial role in the U.S. as lenders to small businesses
—Back local charities
—Earned the trust of local depositors and customers over the years (average age of community banks is 40+ years)
—Customer loyalty – intangible asset unrivaled by out-of-market competitors
Connection to the CommunityConnection to the Community
17
Proven StrategyProven Strategy
Banks that did not stray from core banking activities have outperformed
Key characteristics of poor performance include:— High asset growth (+25% average annual growth)— Banks with assets in excess of $10 billion — De novos— Publicly traded institutions — Below average capital levels— Poor liquidity— Loan over-concentrations, particularly
construction
18
Community banks are attractive investments
—Long-term, stable historical performance
—Highly regulated and transparent business model
—Standardized reporting to federal and state regulators
—More regulatory scrutiny/leniency
—Lower leverage - higher Tier I capital levels than larger
banks
—Less risk with consistently lower loan losses than larger
banks
—Low investor participation due to limited access and
lack of industry knowledge
Attractive InvestmentsAttractive Investments
19
Bank Activities Community
Banks
Regional & Money Center
Banks
Trading Exposure none extensive
Warehousing/Capital Markets Activity
none extensive
Derivative Exposure none extensive
Leveraged/Nationally Syndicated Loans
none medium to high
Residential Loan Exposure standard over exposed
Sub-Prime Exposure minimal medium to high
Alternative Mortgage Exposure minimal medium to high
Out-of-Footprint Loan Exposure minimal medium to high
Community Banks vs. Regional and Money Center BanksCommunity Banks vs. Regional and Money Center Banks
20
Source: FDIC (1) Loans 90+ days past due or that are non-accrual (2) Loans 30 – 89 days past due
Community Banks Continue to Outperform Larger PeersCommunity Banks Continue to Outperform Larger Peers
Select 1Q2009 Data
Assets <$1 Billion
$1 Billion to$10 Billion
Assets >$10 Billion
Number of Institutions 7,555 576 115
Total Assets (bn) $1,527 $1,513 $10,501
ROA 0.33% -0.17% 0.26%
Net Interest Margin 3.56% 3.36% 3.37%
Non-current Loans (1) 2.72% 3.64% 3.98%
Past Due Loans (2) 1.84% 1.68% 2.15%
Net Charge-off Rate 0.69% 1.41% 2.27%
Leverage Ratio 9.87% 9.15% 7.61%
Tier I Ratio 13.48% 11.94% 10.17%
Total Risk-Based Ratio 14.63% 13.31% 13.32%
21
Net Charge-Off RatioNet Charge-Off RatioTangible Common Equity
RatioTangible Common Equity
Ratio
Source: SNL Financial
Community banks have demonstrated superior credit performance and generally have higher capital ratios
Community banks make a higher % of secured loans
0.00%
0.15%
0.30%
0.45%
0.60%
0.75%
0.90%
1.05%
1.20%
1.35%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Banks $100MM to $1Bn
Banks > $1Bn
1Q09
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Banks $100MM to $1Bn
Banks > $1Bn
1Q09
22
Community Banking Model – Proven StrategyCommunity Banking Model – Proven Strategy
Banks that did not stray from core community banking have outperformed
Key characteristics of poor performance include:— High asset growth (+25% average annual
growth)— Banks with assets in excess of $10 billion — De novos— Publicly traded institutions — Below average capital levels— Poor liquidity— Loan over-concentrations, particularly
construction
23
Investment ProcessInvestment Process
24
Bank analysis—Capital, Asset Quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity
& Deposits
Bank modeling—Stress test & burn down analysis
Economic and demographic review—County and state level, local industry & topography
Asset portfolio review—Loan stratification—Specific asset analysis by loan type—Investment portfolio - fair market vs. book value
Credit committee process—How do we make a decision?
Investment ProcessInvestment Process
25
Capital—Regulatory ratios (leverage, Tier 1, TRBC)—Tangible capital
Asset quality—NPLs, NCOs, reserve level—Growth in NPLs and by loan type
Management – see next page
Earnings—ROA, ROA, NIM—Quality of earnings: adjust for one time and nonrecurring
items —Provisions vs. net charge-offs
Liquidity—Loans/Deposits, level of brokered and large time deposits—Contingency funding sources and strength of deposit
franchise
Ratios & Metrics - Trends Are ImportantRatios & Metrics - Trends Are Important
26
Management and Board responsible for risk management and strategic direction - “tone at the top” for underwriting and credit
How to assess management:—Background – banking experience and overall
character—Financial ties to the bank & ties to the community—Compensation aligned to performance—Review of policies, procedures and controls—Frequency of credit policy violations (exceptions
report)—Regulatory and accounting issues—Accounting standards (quality of earnings)—Loan work-out expertise (aggressive in collections)—Adequate systems and staff to support growth
Management – Foundation of a Bank’s FranchiseManagement – Foundation of a Bank’s Franchise
27
Most ratios and financial metrics look backwards
Forward looking factors are key to predicting the future
—Adjusted Texas ratio
—Operating leverage
—RE Concentration
—Growth rate of earning assets versus deposits
—Change in deposit mix
—Change in asset mix
—30-89 day past due loans
—Adjusted cash flow
—(net income + provisions + goodwill amort. + goodwill
charges - charge-offs)
Predictive Ratios & MetricsPredictive Ratios & Metrics
NPLs + OREO + 20% of CLD LoansTangible Equity + Loan Reserves( )
CLD + Non-owner Occupied CRETier 1 Capital )(
28
Quality of deposits
—Brokered deposits: long-term versus short-term
—Pure deposits: level of deposits excluding all CDs & time deposits
—Duration and interest rate sensitivity of deposits
Liquidity & funding sources
—Net liquidity ratio
—Carrying value of securities to market value
—Composition of securities (3rd party MBS, munis)
—Volatile liabilities ratio (< 25%):
Unfunded commitments and loan pipeline
—Relative to capital and available funding sources
Goodwill relative to capital
Liquidity, Deposits & Capital – Other Factors to ConsiderLiquidity, Deposits & Capital – Other Factors to Consider
Volatile Liabilities - ST InvestmentsEarning Assets - ST Investments( )
Liquid Assets + Loans Maturing ≤ 1 Yr. + Remaining FHLB CapacityCDs, FHLB Advances & Other Bowwerings Maturing ≤ 1 Yr.( )
29
StoneCastle has developed a proprietary bank stress model to project how banks perform in a run-off scenario
Integrates bank financial data and local economic data on a county level
Five year projections include expectations of income on performing assets3
C O
N F
I D E
N T
I A L
Run-off Analysis 1
Alliance Bancorp (Francesville, IN)2008YE Assets 262,996
Projected Tangible Equity Cap / Tangible Assets
Asset Composition Asset Growth House Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Unemployment Decline 2 6% 0 1 2 3 4
Sec 31.0% 1-yr 14.3% 7.0% -10.0% 0 10.2% 12.0% 13.7% 15.4% 17.1%
5-yr 16.5% 9.0% -20.0% 1 9.9% 11.4% 12.9% 14.4% 16.0%
Constr 1.9% 12.0% -30.0% 2 9.3% 10.4% 11.4% 12.5% 13.9%
Resi-1st 11.7% 18.0% -40.0% 3 7.1% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 6.2%
Resi-jr lien 0.5% TEC / TA
Resi-HE 2.0%
CRE 14.4% 08 Ratio 8.5% W.A. of Bank by Deposit Geography Deposits House Price
Cons 1.4% 9.4% -11.6% County, St (000's) Unemployment Decline 2
C&I 13.2% Pulaski, IN 72,651 10.0% -11.4%
Other 69.0% Benton, IN 39,292 7.9% -10.2%
White, IN 41,106 10.4% -11.3%
J asper, IN 42,781 8.8% -13.3%
195,830 9.4% -11.6%1 Excess cashflow goes to cash and delever's the bank2 Peak-to-trough Median Sales Price3 Assumes a flat interest rate environment and no new loans are orginated at attractive market spreads
StoneCastle’s Bank Stress ModelStoneCastle’s Bank Stress Model
30
C O
N F
I D E
N T
I A L
StoneCastle considers up to 12 county-level economic metrics to determine the stress level scenario for each bank
Stress levels are deposit weighted by county for each bank
Entire Bank Universe (8,300+ institutions) is modeled and updated on a quarterly basis
Rampart – County by County Level DetailRampart – County by County Level Detail
31
StoneCastle’s Bank Rating Algorithm (SCP Rating)StoneCastle’s Bank Rating Algorithm (SCP Rating)
Proprietary quantitative algorithm for grading the financial condition of each bank, thrift and bank holding company in the U.S.
Largely based on the CAMELS methodology
— Incorporates a wide variety of financial metrics pertaining to profitability, capital, asset quality and liquidity
Valuable analytical tool used to screen banks by overall credit quality
—Ability to draw nationwide and segmented inferences about the state of the banking industry
—Drill down on institutions that are exhibiting the worst performance
Continually analyze and back-test algorithm to enhance predictability
32
StoneCastle Partner’s Rating DefinitionsStoneCastle Partner’s Rating Definitions
A Rating (Excellent)—Exceptionally strong financial profile—Financial metrics demonstrate capital, liquidity, profitability, and
asset quality that meet or exceed peers
B Rating (Satisfactory)—Adequate financial profile and is highly likely to meet its obligations—Poses very little overall risk of loss in the foreseeable future.
C Rating (Average to Below Average)—Exhibiting negative trends, or negative trends are emerging —More susceptible to adverse changes in economic conditions that
could affect the ability to meet obligations
D Rating (Well Below Average)—Institution demonstrates a persistent negative trend that leads to a
higher probability of inability to meet obligations—Risk of loss is not immediate, though possible if trend persists
E Rating (Unacceptable Risk)—Poses a high probability of loss
33
SCP Industry Ratings: 2008 vs. 2006SCP Industry Ratings: 2008 vs. 2006
2008
2006
8%14
%
9%
21%
48%
A
BC
D
E
E, 1%
D
5%
C29%
49%
B
A
16%
34
Characteristics of Performance – Market Characteristics of Performance – Market
Size Age
Ownership Growth Rate
D & E Rated Banks
A, B & C Rated Banks
Big (≥ $10Bn)
62%
38%
Small (< $10Bn)
78%
22%
< 5yrs
29%
71%
≥ 5yrs
82%
18%
Public
69%
31%
Private
80%
20%
CAGR ≥ 25%
62%
38%
CAGR < 25%
85%
15%
35
Characteristics of Performance – Balance SheetCharacteristics of Performance – Balance Sheet
Capital Liquidity
CRE
D & E Rated Banks
A, B & C Rated Banks
Construction
TE + LLR <7%
51%49%
TE + LLR ≥ 7%
78%
22%
Loans/Dep ≥ 110%
69%
31%
Loans/Dep < 110%
78%
22%
CRE ≥ 30%
74%
26%
CRE < 30%
80%
20%
Construction ≥ 30%
39%
61%
Construction < 30%
80%
20%
36
Demographic & Economic Overview
Demographic & Economic Overview
37Source: Moody’s Economy.com & StoneCastle Partners
Key Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United StatesKey Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United States
Select Economic Data Alabama Arkansas GeorgiaUnitedStates
Median Home Price to Median Family Income (1Q09)
2.32x 2.15x 1.92x 2.62x
Unemployment Rate(April 2009)
9.00% 6.50% 9.30% 8.90%
5-yr. Change in Unemployment Rate (2004 – 2009)
69.8% 12.1% 106.7% 58.9%
5-yr. Change in Population(2003 – 2008)
3.45% 4.20% 8.70% 3.81%
Population Migration: 35-49 yr. old / 25-34 yr. old Ratio (2008)
1.58x 1.49x 1.56x 1.59x
Poverty Rate(2007)
14.5% 13.8% 13.6% 12.5%
Crime Rate Per 1,000 People(2007)
44.2 44.9 44.0 37.4
38Source: Moody’s Economy.com & StoneCastle Partners
Key Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United StatesKey Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United States
Select Economic Data Iowa Kansas LouisianaUnitedStates
Median Home Price to Median Family Income (1Q09)
1.86x 1.95x 2.36x 2.62x
Unemployment Rate(April 2009)
5.10% 6.40% 6.20% 8.90%
5-yr. Change in Unemployment Rate (2004 – 2009)
10.9% 14.3% 8.77% 58.9%
5-yr. Change in Population(2003 – 2008)
2.03% 2.60% -1.72% 3.81%
Population Migration: 35-49 yr. old / 25-34 yr. old Ratio (2008)
1.60x 1.51x 1.46x 1.59x
Poverty Rate(2007)
8.90% 11.7% 16.1% 12.5%
Crime Rate Per 1,000 People(2007)
29.2 41.3 47.2 37.4
39Source: Moody’s Economy.com & StoneCastle Partners
Key Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United StatesKey Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United States
Select Economic DataMississipp
iNebraska Oklahoma
UnitedStates
Median Home Price to Median Family Income (1Q09)
2.32x 2.01x 2.15x 2.62x
Unemployment Rate(April 2009)
9.10% 4.40% 6.20% 8.90%
5-yr. Change in Unemployment Rate (2004 – 2009)
59.7% 15.8% 21.6% 58.9%
5-yr. Change in Population(2003 – 2008)
1.87% 2.41% 3.71% 3.81%
Population Migration: 35-49 yr. old / 25-34 yr. old Ratio (2008)
1.52x 1.50x 1.42x 1.59x
Poverty Rate(2007)
22.6% 9.90% 13.4% 12.5%
Crime Rate Per 1,000 People(2007)
34.9 34.7 40.4 37.4
40Source: Moody’s Economy.com & StoneCastle Partners
Key Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United StatesKey Economic Statistics – Select States vs. The United States
Select Economic Data Oregon Texas VirginiaWyomi
ngUnitedStates
Median Home Price to Median Family Income (1Q09)
3.60x 2.26x 2.83x 1.86x 2.62x
Unemployment Rate(April 2009)
12.0% 6.70% 6.80% 4.50% 8.90%
5-yr. Change in Unemployment Rate (2004 – 2009)
64.4% 8.06% 83.8% 15.4% 58.9%
5-yr. Change in Population(2003 – 2008)
5.98% 8.48% 4.22% 5.94% 3.81%
Population Migration: 35-49 yr. old / 25-34 yr. old Ratio (2008)
1.43x 1.41x 1.61x 1.39x 1.59x
Poverty Rate(2007)
12.8% 16.5% 8.60% 10.9% 12.5%
Crime Rate Per 1,000 People(2007)
38.3 46.4 27.4 31.0 37.4
41
5-yr. Change in Population - Nebraska5-yr. Change in Population - Nebraska
Sharp County is the 3rd most populous county in NE with 151 thousand residents 5 – 20 miles from Omaha which is home to 5 Fortune 500 companies: Berkshire
Hathaway, ConAgra Foods, Mutual of Omaha, Peter Kiewit Sons, and Union Pacific Railroad
Home to Offutt Air Force Base 2nd largest Wing in the U.S. Air Force 10,000 military and federal employees
Sarpy County
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg
• Lincoln
Omaha
42
2008 Household Income - Virginia2008 Household Income - Virginia
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg
Henry CountyHenry County Largest Employers: Henry County Public Schools,
Stanley Furniture and Memorial Hospital County is reliant on manufacturing (particularly furniture), textiles,
plastics, wood products and printing 6.3% unemployment rate in 2008 versus the state average of 3.2% Unemployment reached 14.2% in April 2009
43
5-Year Change in Household Income - Virginia5-Year Change in Household Income - Virginia
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg
Henry County: historically low household income based on demographics of the county Low level of education – 9.4% of people have a bachelor’s or higher degree, only 65%
graduated high school Lost ~ 3% of total jobs over the past 5 years (manufacturing) while population declined
4.5% 11.7% of the population lives below poverty with a high unemployment rate
Fairfax County: most populous county in VA reflects a more stable economic environment 91% of 25+ year olds graduated high school, 55% have a bachelor's or higher degree 6% job growth with almost 11% population growth 4.9% live below the poverty line and a very low unemployment rate (currently ~ 3.3%)
Fairfax County
HenryCounty
44
5-Year Change in Home Prices - Arkansas5-Year Change in Home Prices - Arkansas
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg
Poinsett County
• Little Rock
Poinsett County: slower job growth, lower median household income and higher unemployment rate compared to the Arkansas and national averages
45
Median Home Price to Median Income - LouisianaMedian Home Price to Median Income - Louisiana
Orleans Parish New Orleans’ post-Hurricane Katrina economy has largely shielded the Orleans
Parish from the recession being felt in the rest of the economy Due to diminished supply and increasing demand, home prices have dipped only
slightly, dropping 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with 12.9% nationwide
East Baton Rouge Parish City of Baton Rouge is one of the fastest growing cities in the South, which has
prevented a decline in housing prices experienced by many other major cities
LA AvgBelow LA Avg
Above LA Avg
• Baton Rouge
East Baton Rouge Parish
Orleans Parish
46Source: Moody’s Economy & NAR
Home Price to Median Family Income – by RegionHome Price to Median Family Income – by Region
Past five years saw a home price bubble in growth areas
National average Home Price to Median Family Income since1981 has been 2.79x
The U.S. average home price fell to 2.77x of income in 4Q08 from the peak of 3.90x in 3Q05
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
4.0x
4.5x
5.0x
5.5x
1981 1983 1985 1987 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008
Hom
e Pr
ice
/ M
edia
n Fa
mily
Inco
me
Growth Areas (WestCoast, Northeast, FL, AZ, NV)Recession Areas (IN, MI, OH)Rest of the CountryUS Average
Bubble
47
Source: Moody’s Economy & NAR
Home Price to Median Family Income – by Select StatesHome Price to Median Family Income – by Select States
California may have seen the worst of downward pressure as affordability has reverted towards the mean
Most states did not see runaway growth in home prices relative to income
1.3x
2.3x
3.3x
4.3x
5.3x
6.3x
7.3x
8.3x
1981 1983 1985 1987 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008
Hom
e Pr
ice
/ M
edia
n Fa
mily
Inco
me
CaliforniaAlabamaArkansasGeorgiaIowaUS Average Bubble
48
Source: Moody’s Economy & NAR
Home Price to Median Family Income – by Select StatesHome Price to Median Family Income – by Select States
Affordability across much of the country continues to improve as home prices return to pre-boom levels
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
4.0x
1981 1983 1985 1987 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008
Hom
e Pr
ice
/ M
edia
n Fa
mily
Inco
me
KansasLouisiana
MississippiNebraska
US Average
49
Source: Moody’s Economy & NAR
Home Price to Median Family Income – by Select StatesHome Price to Median Family Income – by Select States
The Northeast lags the rest of the U.S. by one to two quarters Current home prices in Oregon approximate June 2005
prices, whereas home prices in the rest of the country have reached 2003 levels
1.6x
2.1x
2.5x
3.0x
3.4x
3.9x
4.3x
4.8x
1981 1983 1985 1987 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008
Hom
e Pr
ice
/ M
edia
n Fa
mily
Inco
me
OklahomaOregonTexasVirginiaWyomingUS Average Bubble
50
Unemployment Rate - TexasUnemployment Rate - Texas
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria MSA Moderate impact from substantially lower oil and natural gas prices Contraction of the employment base, while less severe than elsewhere
in the country, has pushed up unemployment to 5.9% in April 2009, which is still below the 6.7% and 8.9% for the state and nation, respectively
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. Avg
• Austin
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria MSA
Pecos – home to the largest oil field in the U.S.
51
5-Year Change in Unemployment Rate - Texas5-Year Change in Unemployment Rate - Texas
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. Avg
• Austin
Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington MSA
Dallas area home to major employers such as Texas Instruments, Perot Systems, AT&T, Verizon, Lockheed Martin, Bell Helicopter Textron, Raytheon and American Airlines
Ft. Worth area has a high level of agriculture which could contribute to the somewhat higher unemployment rate in the MSA
52
Bankruptcies - KansasBankruptcies - Kansas
Unemployment levels are often a leading indicator of bankruptcy filings Between 2007 and the first quarter of 2009, unemployment rate in Kansas City MSA
increased from 4.6% to 7.5%, while that in Topeka MSA increased from 4.5% to 6.5% Suggests that number of bankruptcy filings in Shawnee and Wyandotte counties will
remain high in 2009
Recent layoffs suggest that bankruptcies related to the manufacturing sector may continue to rise Wyandotte County’s 2009 bankruptcy figures will reflect Chapter 11 filing of General
Motors, which has a plant in Kansas City Major aircraft manufacturers including Bombardier Aerospace, Cessna Aircraft and
Hawker Beechcraft have laid off thousands of workers in Wichita, citing cancelled aircraft orders
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. AvgKansas City MSA
Topeka
•
• Wichita
Topeka MSA
• Kansas City
53
5-Year Change in Bankruptcies – Kansas5-Year Change in Bankruptcies – Kansas
Bankruptcy filings and mass layoffs have increased since 2006 Annual bankruptcy filings in Kansas peaked at 22,786 in 2005, before
declining sharply to 6,247 in 2006 and then increasing to 8,900 in 2008 Number of bankruptcy filings corresponded with number of mass layoffs
—The number of mass layoffs, which include more than 50 people, increased from 88 in 2006 to 136 in 2008
—38 of these layoffs came in December, the highest monthly figure in over a decade
Norton County: Over the 5 year period, population declined 4.9% and personal income decreased 2%, while trends for the state of Kansas were both positive
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. Avg
Norton County
• Topeka
54
Crime Rate - GeorgiaCrime Rate - Georgia
Fulton and DeKalb counties are affected by substantial drug trafficking activity, low levels of educational, high unemployment and declining number of jobs Educational attainment: 14% and 16% of county populations have not graduated
from high school, compared with 10% nationally Unemployment: Among individuals aged 16 and over, the unemployment rate in
Fulton and DeKalb was approximately 7.4% and 7.3%, respectively, compared with 6.6% nationally (2008)
Job Growth: Employment growth of -0.8% in De Kalb and Fulton counties was lower than the state and national averages during 2008
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. AvgFulton County
• Atlanta
DeKalb County
55
Topography - Flood PlainsTopography - Flood Plains
56
Distribution of SCP Ratings - WyomingDistribution of SCP Ratings - Wyoming
Platte County
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg
Sheridan County
Hot Springs County
Overall, Wyoming banks had better profitability, liquidity, efficiency and lower credit losses than the industry
averages in 1Q09
Level of capital, nonperforming assets and exposures to CL&D and CRE loans approximate industry averages
• Cheyenne
57
Net Interest Margin - OklahomaNet Interest Margin - Oklahoma
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg
• Tulsa
Marshall County
Johnston County
Love County
Overall, Oklahoma banks enjoy higher asset yields and lower funding costs relative to the national averages in 1Q09
58
Concentration of Home Equity Loans - Mississippi Concentration of Home Equity Loans - Mississippi
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. Avg
Harrison County
• Jackson
Tishomingo County
Adams County
Adams, Harrison and Tishomingo counties reported lower than average net charge-offs in their home equity portfolios despite the above average concentration in 1Q09
59
Concentration of Construction Loans - OregonConcentration of Construction Loans - Oregon
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. Avg
• Salem
• EugeneLane County
Lane County experienced 74% growth in median household income over the past two years with above average growth in employment
60
Net Charge-Offs - IowaNet Charge-Offs - Iowa
U.S. AvgBelow U.S. Avg
Above U.S. Avg
Poweshiek County
• Des Moines
Poweshiek County’s rating is skewed by the high level of net charge-offs reported by Patriot Bank and People’s Savings Bank in 1Q09 Other banks in the county reported a very low level of
NCOs in the quarter
61
Tier 1 Ratio - AlabamaTier 1 Ratio - Alabama
U.S. AvgAbove U.S. Avg
Below U.S. Avg• Montgomery
The average Tier I ratio in the state has lagged the national average over the past five years
62
Regulatory Capital Options
Regulatory Capital Options
63
Subordinated Debt
Trust Preferred
Regulatory CapitalTypical Bank
Capital Structure
Deposits (89%)Preferred Stock
Common Equity
Importance of Regulatory CapitalImportance of Regulatory Capital
Regulatory Capital (11%)
64
Historical Capital Options for Regional & Money Center BanksHistorical Capital Options for Regional & Money Center Banks
Subordinated Debt
Trust Preferreds
Hybrids
Convertible Preferred
Preferred Stock
Perpetual Preferred Stock
Common Stock
65
Historical Capital Options for Community BanksHistorical Capital Options for Community Banks
Subordinated Debt
Trust Preferreds
Hybrids
Convertible Preferred
Preferred Stock
Perpetual Preferred Stock
Common Stock
66
Current Capital Options for Community BanksCurrent Capital Options for Community Banks
Subordinated Debt ?
Trust Preferreds
Hybrids
Convertible Preferred
Preferred Stock
Preferred Stock via TARP
Perpetual Preferred Stock
Common Stock ?
67
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008
L + 000 bps
L + 200 bps
L + 400 bps
L + 600 bps
L + 800 bps
L + 1000 bps
L + 1200 bps
Bank TPS Issuance
Spread$
in
Mil
lio
ns
Pooled Trust Preferred Market IssuancePooled Trust Preferred Market Issuance
No pooled Trust Preferred issuance in 2008 or 2009
Spreads between 2002 and the 1st half 2007 were artificially low because of increased liquidity from SPVs
Capital Markets driven pooled TPS market unlikely to return – dramatic changes to rating agency methodology
1st Half 1st Half2nd Half 2nd Half
68
Subordinated
Debt
Subordinated
Debt Trust
Preferred
Trust Preferred
CommonEquity
CommonEquity
Convertible
Preferred
Convertible
Preferred
Term 30 years 10 years Perpetual Perpetual
Rate ~14.0% ~13.0% ~10.0% 30%+
Capital Treatment
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 1 Tier 1
Tax TreatmentOrdinary Income
Ordinary Income
QDI Dividend
Call Protection 5-10 years 5 years 3 years NA
Voting Rights No No Yes Yes
Warrants Yes Yes NA NA
Regulatory Capital – Indicative Deal TermsRegulatory Capital – Indicative Deal Terms
69
Unlikely to return Market demandChange in rating agency criteria
Fundamental changes on Wall St.
Investor base is much smaller (SIV/Conduits gone)
Abuse of structured finance technology
Rating agencies are not trusted and ratings methodology is changed for the worse
Most legacy investors are gone or failing
Pooled Trust Preferred MarketPooled Trust Preferred Market
70
Federal Government Initiatives and the Private
Market
Federal Government Initiatives and the Private
Market
71
Spending $100 and Earning $90 for the last 20 years
Addiction to Leverage
Change from saying: “I’m going to save up for a ______” to “I’m going to charge it and pay it later.”
$4 Trillion “Shadow Banking Market”
FASB – America’s Unexpected Terrorist
Impatience
How did the U.S. Economy Get To This Point?How did the U.S. Economy Get To This Point?
72
TARP, TALF, etc………….what’s next?
Are the government programs working?
Will these programs be enough?
Is the government taking the right steps?
What will the side-effects be?
Federal Government ActionsFederal Government Actions
73
“Chicken or the Egg” – who invests first?
Temporary vs. permanent solution
Legislative and regulatory hurdles ongoing
Federal government influence and controls
Stigma attached to participation
Changing terms - TARP Section 5.3:— “unilaterally amend any provision of this
Agreement…”
Ultimate take out for TARP unclear
TARP and Private Equity InvestorsTARP and Private Equity Investors
74
Rational for TARP and Additional CapitalRational for TARP and Additional Capital
% Rate CostDeposits 90% 3.25% 2.93%Equity 10% 30.00% 3.00%
Blended Cost of Capital: 5.93%
Bank Prior to TARP/TPS
% Rate CostDeposits 90% 3.25% 2.93%TARP 2.5% 5.00% 0.13% warrants 4.00% 0.10%Equity 7.5% 30.00% 2.25%
Blended Cost of Capital: 5.40%
Bank Post TARP
Hybrid capital reduces the blended cost of capital Private and public capital are initially at equal cost
— TARP steps up after the fifth year
% Rate CostDeposits 90% 3.25% 2.93%TPS 2.5% 14.00% 0.35% tax adjustment -4.90% -0.12%Equity 7.5% 30.00% 2.25%
Blended Cost of Capital: 5.40%
Bank Post TPS
75
Regulatory Capital Raises - 2008(1)Regulatory Capital Raises - 2008(1)
(1) Source: SNL Financial & StoneCastle Partners; as of Dec. 31, 2008
Record amounts of capital raised
— TARP issuance (Capital Purchase Program – CPP)
— Where is the capital for community banks?
4% Sub Debt
5% TPS
4% Pref Equity
67% CPP Pref Equity
20% Common Equity
$11.4 billion
Issuance by Banks with Assets < $10 billion ($ in
bn)
0
75
150
225
300
375
Issuance by Banks with Assets > $10 billion ($ in
bn) 1% Sub Debt
5% TPS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
26% Pref Equity
53% CPP Pref Equity
15% Common Equity
$355.3 billion
76
Trying to restore confidence
Seeks to create more stable trading levels of publicly issued bank debt
Provides capital for:
—Disposal of bad assets
—Increased lending
—Acquisition of weaker institutions
TARPTARP
Aimed towards assisting the money center and large regional banks
Short-term and temporary solution
Not enough funds are reaching Main Street
Community banks may not have access to TARP capital and funds may not be available
AdvantagesAdvantages DisadvantagesDisadvantages
77
An Alternative to TARP—Funds can be offered at rates similar to TARP—Ability to avoid the structural issues of TARP
An Additional Source of Funds—TARP funds fall short of the existing capital appetite—Funds in addition to TARP are necessary for
—Mergers and acquisitions—Acquisition of failed banks’ deposits and assets—Charge-offs—Optimized Tier 1 capital levels
A Potential Exit Strategy—TARP funds must be refinanced with “Qualifying Capital”—Qualifying Capital may be expanded to include TPS
Private Equity Solutions Co-exist With TARPPrivate Equity Solutions Co-exist With TARP
78
Few firms organized for non-control investments
Fewer are qualified to evaluate bank specific investments
Large universe of targets for non-control investment
Allows investors to participate with well run banks
Limited universe of investment targets
—Distressed
—De novo
—Expensive
Regulatory gating / BHC risk
Requires a management team willing to leave
Non-control InvestmentsNon-control InvestmentsControl/Buy Out Investments
Control/Buy Out Investments
Private Market SolutionsPrivate Market Solutions
79
Non-control Capital Infusion
Traditional Bank Buyouts
Form of InvestmentConvertible Preferred Shares/
Trust Preferred with Warrants
Common Shares
Control (1) No Yes
Quality of Management
Deep knowledge of the bank’s local markets and
customers
Weak to average knowledge of the bank’s
local markets
Age of Institution 30+ Years Typically De Novo to 10 Years
Subject to BHC Rules No Yes
Voting Shares (1) Yes Yes
Ownership % (Diluted) (1)
<33% >33%
Liquidation Preference
Senior to Equity N/A
Current Dividend Yield
8%+ 0-5%
Board Seats (1) Typically Yes
Harvest Period 3-5 years Uncertain
Targeted Investment Size
$5 - $50 $50+ million
Targeted IRR 12% - 25%+ 30%+
Targeted MOI 2.0x - 3.0x+ 4.0x+
(1) Certain investments may be in partnership with one or more parties which as a group may have control, higher share ownership and board representation
Private Market SolutionsPrivate Market Solutions
80
What Do Private Investment Firms Think About?What Do Private Investment Firms Think About?
Deposit quality and franchise value
“True” book value of the company
Asset/liability composition
Market demographics:
—population growth, median household income, local industry, age trends
Microeconomic factors:
—unemployment, house prices, bankruptcy filings
Topographical considerations:
—earthquake, flood, hurricane
81
StoneCastle rates community banks by financial health into the three general categories listed below (1)
Category 2 Banks
(~700 Banks)
SCP Grade D
Material but not imminently critical capital or asset quality issues
Quantifiable problems that can be defined and addressed
Historically good franchise value with credible management and a strategy to address issues
Attractive investment opportunities due to low price-to-book and likelihood of future growth
Institution may need to raise regulatory capital or consider strategic alternatives
Category 1 Banks
(~6500 Banks)
SCP Grade A, B & C
Banking franchises with solid deposit base, strong capital and reserves
Sufficient capital and reserves to cover potential asset degradation
Minimal exposure to high risk asset classes
Average to above average earnings
Experienced management team
Category 3 Banks
(~1100 Banks)
SCP Grade E
Distressed loan book with unquantifiable asset quality issues
Concentrations to high risk asset classes or expanded beyond historical geographic footprint
Challenging economic and demographic issues
Declining franchise value with insufficient capital and reserves to non-performing assets
Likely to come under regulatory supervision or failure
C O
N F
I D
E N
T I A
L
As of 4th Quarter 2008
Community Banking Market – Categories of BanksCommunity Banking Market – Categories of Banks
82
Banks presently have an increased need for regulatory capitalWilling to consider dilutive forms of equityPrefer non-dilutive and tax deductible Tier 1 and Tier 2
capital
Banks need capital in weak marketsVoluntary needs:
—Acquire weaker banks and divested branches—Organic growth of loan portfolio and deposits due to
competitors’ weaknesses Involuntary needs (regulatory pressure)
—Raise capital to absorb potential loan losses
Banks also need capital in strong marketsVoluntary needs:
—Acquire strategically aligned banks—Expand branch network—Organic grow of loan portfolio and deposits—Acquire value-added businessesS
T O
N E
C A
S T
L E
P
A R
T N
E R
S
Need for Regulatory Capital Exists in Both Strong & Weak MarketsNeed for Regulatory Capital Exists in Both Strong & Weak Markets
83
StoneCastle has identified a need for Tier 1 capital in the community banking sector
Community banks hold approximately $3.0 trillion in assets and $319 billion in equity
Trust preferred securities (TPS) and subordinate debt will continue to be a critical source of non-dilutive capital
StoneCastle estimates that community banks will require more than $92 billion of capital over the next five years based on first quarter numbers
Need for Tier 1 Capital in the Community Banking SectorNeed for Tier 1 Capital in the Community Banking Sector
Capital to be Funded by TPS
Additional Loan Charge-offs $ 33 Bn
Organic Asset Growth $ 19 Bn
Permanent increase to loan loss reserves $ 12 Bn
Acquisition of D and E rated banks $ 28 Bn
Total New TPS Needed: $92 Bn
84
Capital Deficiency Calculation for all Banks < $10bn
Totals for all banks less than $10bn
Net Loans 2,066.0$ Average Annual Net Charge Offs to Loans 1.61%
Total Assets 3,056.0 Cumulative Net Charge Offs to Loans over 5 yrs 8.06%
Equity Capital 318.0 Cumulative Net Charge Offs to Assets over 5 yrs 5.45%
Annual Net Income 8.3 Tax After Net Charge Offs to Assets over 5 yrs (35%) 3.54%
Total Loss After Benefit of Retained Earnings 2.19%
Annualized ROA 0.27%
ROA Cumulative over 5 yrs 1.35% Total Capital Needed 67.0
50% Funded through TPS $33.5
______________________Source: FDIC, SNL, Goldman Sachs Research
______________________Source: FDIC, SNL, Goldman Sachs Research
($ in Billions)
(1)
______________________(1) Note: Taxes should be factored in only one of the three categories where applicable
Net Charge-Offs Ratio
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%Average Cycle
Current Cycle
Proj Cumulative Avg
Total Capital Need Sensitivity
Average Annual NCO/ Loans over 5yrs
25.89 1.30% 1.50% 1.70% 1.90% 2.10%
0.20% 56.7 70.2 83.6 97.0 110.4
0.30% 41.4 54.9 68.3 81.7 95.2
0.40% 26.2 39.6 53.0 66.5 79.9
0.50% 10.9 24.3 37.7 51.2 64.6
0.60% - 9.0 22.5 35.9 49.3
0.70% - - 7.2 20.6 34.0
Average Annual
Free Cash Flow to Assets
Capital Needed as a Result of Charge-OffsCapital Needed as a Result of Charge-Offs
85
Tier 1 Capital Deficiency Calculation for all Banks < $10bn
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Assets $3,056.0 $3,166.0 $3,280.0 $3,398.1 $3,520.4 $3,647.1
Asset Growth 110.0 114.0 118.1 122.3 126.7
Equity Capital 318.0 379.9 393.6 407.8 422.4 437.7
Additional Capital Required 61.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2
Total Cumulative Capital Required Over Five Years 119.7
Pre-Prov Income (after taxes) $25.3 $26.2 $27.2 $28.2 $29.2
Dividends (40%) (10.1) (10.5) (10.9) (11.3) (11.7)
Retained Capital 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5
Total Cumulative Capital Retained Over Five Years 81.7
Total Capital Needed 38.0
50% Funded through TPS $19.0
Market Statistics for all Banks <$10bn
Total Assets $3,056.0
Net Loans 2,066.0
Equity Capital 318.0
Equity Capital Ratio 10.4%
Equity Capital Ratio to Maintain 12.0%
Annual Asset Growth Rate Assumed 3.6%
($ in Billions)
($ in Billions)(1)
(2)
______________________(1) Source: FDIC, SNL, Goldman Sachs Research(2) 1.2x Average annual GDP (3.0%), “United States: Banks” - Goldman Sachs 12/6/2008(3) Note: Taxes should be factored in only one of the three categories where applicable
(3)
Capital Required for Growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
$ in
Billion
s
Cumulative Capital Required
Cumulative Capital Retained
Capital Needed as a Result of GrowthCapital Needed as a Result of Growth
86
Average bank NPAs have been
trending upwards and reserve levels
will have to be built accordingly
Reserve ratios are expected to
increase to a peak ratio of 3.50%
and trend downward thereafter but
to a new higher permanent level
TPS will be an important component
in supporting this capital need
(2)
______________________(1) Source: FDIC, SNL, Goldman Sachs Research(2) Note: Taxes should be factored in only one of the three categories where applicable
Average Bank NPAs and Reserve Level Trends
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
19
93Y
19
94Y
19
95Y
19
96Y
19
97Y
19
98Y
19
99Y
20
01Y
20
02Y
20
03Y
20
04Y
20
05Y
20
06Y
20
07Y
20
08E
20
09E
20
10E
20
11E
20
12E
20
13E
NPAs/Total Assets Reserves/ Total Loans
(1)
YReserve Building -- Tier 1 Capital Deficiency Calculation for all Banks < $10bn
2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Loans $2,066.0 $2,140.4 $2,217.4 $2,297.3 $2,380.0 $2,465.6
Reserve Ratio 1.44% 2.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.00% 2.75%
Reserve Amount 29.78 53.51 77.61 80.40 71.40 67.81 Increase/ Decrease in Reserves 23.73 24.10 2.79 (9.01) (3.59)
38.0
Total Tax Adjusted Need for Capital 24.7
50% Funded through TPS $12.4
Capital Needed due to Increased Loan Loss ReservesCapital Needed due to Increased Loan Loss Reserves
87
M&A Activity -- Capital Deficiency Calculation for all Banks < $10bn
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Assets Purchased $183.4 $183.4 $183.4 $183.4 $183.4
Capital Required 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 25% Funded with TPS 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Amount Funded through TPS $27.5
7100 Category A Banks
A, B, and C Banks
D
E
~
StoneCastle’s proprietary algorithm, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative factors,
grades the entire universe of performing banks by financial health (scale from A to E)
($ in Billions)(1)
______________________(1) Assumes a linear distribution of capital for M&A activity over the next five years
Troubled Banks
Troubled Banks (D & E) 30.0%Assets in Troubled Banks 916.8Capital Required (12%) 110.0% Funded with TPS 25.0%
Market Statistics for all Banks <$10bn
Total Assets (Market Size) $3,056.0
Equity Capital 318.0
Capital Needed as a Result of M&A and FailuresCapital Needed as a Result of M&A and Failures
88
OutlookOutlook
89
Recession -- Increasing unemployment
Continued contraction in credit availability— Disrupted securitization market – not coming back— Bank balance sheet constraints — Heightened risk aversion
Credit spreads remain elevated
Increase in CRE and C&I loan defaults
Sustained global effort needed to restore confidence
— Will need public as well as private solutions— Fundamental changes in borrowing habits by investors,
corporations and consumers
Outlook 2009Outlook 2009
90
Deep Recession - Key Indicators at All Time HighsDeep Recession - Key Indicators at All Time Highs
Source: Bloomberg
J PMorgan Domestic HighYield Bond Indices
200 bps
400 bps
600 bps
800 bps
1000 bps
1200 bps
1400 bps
1600 bps
1800 bps
2000 bps
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
U.S. Continuing J obless Claims(in thousands)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
91
There will be winners and losers but the banking industry will survive
Industry is trending back to traditional model
Continued contraction in credit availability likely
—30 years ago, 80% of lending was under regulatory control
—Less than 40% of lending was under regulatory control last year
Loan pricing is becoming more rational and risk-based
Wall Street dislocation has reduced the number of non-bank lending institutions − REITs − Hedge Funds − CDOs/CLOs
− BDCs − Specialty Lenders
Short Term Outlook for Banking IndustryShort Term Outlook for Banking Industry
92
Municipal securities – embedded losses?— Wider spreads reflecting increasing concerns about the
underlying credit— Lack of full disclosure by many issuers of tax-exempt debt— Decline of municipal bond insurance and the bond
insurers— Weakened role of bond ratings and the rating agencies— Uncertainties over expected changes to the municipal
bond rating scales— Likelihood of increasing tax rates
Outlook on interest rates and inflation— Mixed bag
Asset quality— Home equity— CRE— Consumer credit
Emerging Credit Concerns & UncertaintiesEmerging Credit Concerns & Uncertainties
93
Political— Mortgage “cram-down”— New regulations— Restrictions on business— Credit availability — Mark-to-market accounting
Profitability— Cost of excess liquidity — FDIC special assessment
Access to Capital— Replacement of TARP— Expanded stress test— OREO valuations
Emerging Credit Concerns & Uncertainties (continued)Emerging Credit Concerns & Uncertainties (continued)
94
Repricing of adjustable-rate mortgages
Emerging Credit Concerns & Uncertainties (continued)Emerging Credit Concerns & Uncertainties (continued)
95
Who will provide financing to community banks in the long term?
Refinancing risks for:— TARP
— Corporate debt— Government debt
Issues to consider— Future of bank regulatory environment
— Global recession— U.S. Dollar— Oil
Outlook for 2010 and BeyondOutlook for 2010 and Beyond
96
Private/public partnerships
U.S. municipalities and U.S. pensions as part of the solution
Easing of Bank Holding Company (BHC) rules
More transparency
Things For All of Us to ConsiderThings For All of Us to Consider
97
SummarySummary
98
Market stress is not equal among all banks
Government support of the banking industry is disproportionate
Certain factors can predict bank failure risk
Community banks need dedicated capital providers
Private investor interest is growing
BHC regulatory rules need to be amended or re-written
Outlook is better for traditional banking institutions
SummarySummary
99
Joshua S. Siegel
Managing Principal
StoneCastle Partners, LLC
ph: 212-354-6500 x303
Question and AnswerQuestion and Answer