jonathan walters sector manager, energy and transport middle east and north africa world bank
TRANSCRIPT
MENA Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Investment Plan
Jonathan WaltersSector Manager, Energy and Transport
Middle East and North AfricaWorld Bank
Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)Worth considering for CSP
Areas physically suitable for solar energy
Parabolic Trough Technology
Why solar energy is important for Middle East & North Africa (MENA)?
Industrial diversification and job creationFirst mover advantage in an industry
starting to take off For oil & gas producers: free up oil & gas for
higher value added usesFor oil & gas importers: energy securityExport to high-paying green electricity
markets in Europe
Why MENA’s scale-up is globally important?
MENA and South Western USA/Mexico offer best solar resources; land, infrastructure and market access
Therefore economies of scale can be achieved most effectively in these two regions, and then deployed elsewhere
So major contribution to climate change mitigation
Investments in Renewable Energy (US $ billion)
Wind PV CSP0
50
100
150
200
250
200
100
CTF-funded CSP Investments in MENA Cumulative Investments
6.5
Clean Technology Fund (CTF) financing
A new multi-billion fund ($5 billion pledged so far) managed by World Bank for climate change mitigation to finance “transformational” projects
Terms are very concessional; 40 year term, 10 yr grace, 0.25 % service fee, zero interest rate, for renewable energy projects
MENA representatives in CTF Trust Fund Committee: Egypt and Morocco
The CTF MENA CSP Investment PlanScale-up investment plan includes about 1 GW at cost of
$6-8 billion ($4 billion for generation, $2-4 for transmission)Accelerate global market momentumProjects in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and JordanCross-border transmission infrastructure included through
projects in Jordan and TunisiaInvestment Plan to be submitted for Trust Fund Review by
end 2009Financing from CTF (up to $750 m), development agencies,
Clean Development Mechanism, and private sector
Financial Analysis Methodology
Comparison of expected levelized energy costs for different financing packages and rate of return expectations
Key AssumptionsEstimates based on a 100 MW plant without
storage 22.5% Capacity Factor US$ 4000/kW capital costs US$ 10/ton carbon credit carbon revenues
Financial Analysis Results for CSP in MENA
Scenarios US cents/kWh at 8% Equity IRR
US cents/kWh at 12% Equity IRR
(A) Commercial (no support)
0.25 0.29
(B) Scenario (A) + Carbon Finance
0.24 0.28
(C) Scenario (B) + 50% highly concessional debt ~ CTF terms
0.14 0.16
Proposed Financing Plan Source Proposed Amount
CTF Up to US$ 750 million
Other concessional financing
US$ 750 million - US$ 1000 million
Private sector /non-concessional official financing /Host governments
US$ 4-6 billion
Total * ~ US$ 6-8 billion
* of which US$ 4 billion for generation projects
Objectives of Tunis Meeting
Agree to work as development partners
Confirm scope of the Investment Plan
Agree to mobilize financing by Spring 2010
Next Steps after Tunis
Finalize the Investment plan based on feedback from Tunis meeting
CTF Trust Fund Committee review in December 2009
Donor coordination to confirm financing by Spring 2010
