Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2006 Year In Review

Edward Fukada

Technical Adviser,

JTWC

OVERVIEW

• Mission / JTWC Origin• Area of Responsibility• Satellite Recon• 2006 vs Climatology• Storm Tracks• Statistics• Coming in 2007• Challenges• Questions

MISSION

Provide tropical cyclone forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other

US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by

Commander, United States Pacific Command.

ORIGIN

PACIFIC FLEET LETTER 14CL-45

From: Commander in Chief, U.S. Pacific FleetTo: PACIFIC FLEET and NAVAL SHORE

ACTIVITIES, Pacific Ocean Areas

Subj: DAMAGE IN TYPHOON, LESSONS OF

1. On 18 December 1944, vessels of the Pacific Fleet, operating insupport of the invasion of the Philippines in an area about 300 mileseast of Luzon, were caught near the center of a typhoon of extremeviolence. Three destroyers, the HULL, MONAGHAN, and SPENCEcapsized and went down with practically all hands; serious damagewas sustained by the CL MIAMI, the CVLs MONTEREY,COWPENS, and SAN JACINTO, the CVEs CAPE ESPERENCE,and ALTAMAHA, and the DDs AYLWIN, DEWEY, and HICKOX.Lesser damage was sustained by at least 19 other vessels, from CAsdown to DEs. Fires occurred on three carriers when planes wheresmashed in their hangars; and some 146 planes on various ships werelost or damaged beyond economical repair by the fires, by beingsmashed up, or by being swept overboard. About 790 officers andmen were lost or killed, and 80 were injured. Several survivingdestroyers reported rolling 70 degrees or more; and we can onlysurmise how close this was to capsizing completely for some ofthem. It was the greatest loss that we have taken in the Pacificwithout compensatory return since the First Battle of Savo.

Established 1959 to protect DoD assetsUSPACOM Instruction 3140.1 defines requirements to monitor and warnJointly manned with 20 military and civilian positions

Air Force provides reconnaissance and forecastersNavy provides facility, equipment, and forecasters

FM ADMINO CINCPACTO RPHRB/CINCPACFLTRJHPKM/PACAFINFO RUHPB/CINCUSARPACRBHPC/MET IN CHG SUPP OFFHONRBEPW/JCSRBMPB/CINCPACREPMARBORJAPAA/COMUSJAPANRJMXDA/3RD AIRDIVNAVY GRNCBTADMINO CINCPAC 182230Z NOTAL REQ YOU ESTABLISH EFFECTIVE 1 MAY 59 A JOINT

PACIFIC FLEET PACIFIC AIR FORCES TYPHOON WARNING CENTER INTEGRAL WITH FLEWEACEN GUAM. TITLE NEW ENTITY WILL BE FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER GUAM UNDER THE COMMAND OF CO FLEWEACEN GUAM. NO CHANGE PROPOSED TO FLEWEACEN RESPONSIBILITIES. MISSION ASSIGNED TO PROVIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS TO ALL U.S. GOVT AGENCIES WEST OF 180 DEGREES LONG VIA EXISTING MILITARY AND FAA CIRCUITS AND PROCEDURES. DETERMINE TYPHOON RECCO REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES: CONDUCT INVESTIGATE AND POST ANALYSIS PROGRAM INCLUDING PREPARATION OF ANNUAL TYPHOON SUMMARIES. CONDUCT FORECAST AND DETECTION RESEARCH AS PRACTICABLE. LOGISTIC AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT AS MUTUALLY AGREED. JTWC SHALL BE STAFFED INITIALLY BY TWO OFFICERS AND THREE ENLISTED EACH FROM THE EXISTING ALLOWANCES OF FLEWEACEN GUAM AND FIRST WEATHER WING. THE SENIOR AIR FORCE OFFICER ASSIGNED SHALL BE THE DIRECTOR JTWC AND SHOULD BE JUNIOR TO THE CO FLEWEACEN/JTWC GUAM. THE TOKYO WEATHER CENTRAL FUCHU ASSISTED AS NECESSARY BY FLEWEAFAC YOKOSUKA IS DESIGNATED ALTERNATE JTWC IN CASE OF FAILURE OF FLEWEACEN/JTWC GUAM.

BT

JTWC AOR

CPHCNew Delhi

Reunion

Tokyo

AustraliaFiji

NHC33%

8%

11%13%

7%

17%

SHEM Multiple Cyclones

Customers

• Dept of Navy– Installations

• Yokosuka• Sasebo• Guam• Pearl Harbor• Diego Garcia

– Ships at sea

• Dept of Air Force– Installations

• Kadena• Andersen• Yokota/Misawa• Osan/Kunsan• Hickam

– Enroute aircraft

• Dept of Army– Installations

• Korea• Japan• Hawaii

• Marine Corp– Installations

• Futenma• Iwakuni• Kaneohe

– Expeditionary forces

• Dept of Commerce– WFO Tiyan

• Micronesia public forecasts– WFO Honolulu

• American Samoa – Coordinated forecasts

• NHC• CPHC

2006 FIXES BY AGENCY

PGTW

KGWC

KNES

RJTD

PHFO

FMEE

ABRF

APRF

ADRM

NFFN

DEMS

279

199

130

95

57

52

7

8738 2910

17671092

Total Satellite Fixes = 15,326

NW PacificNW Pacific 2002: 2002: 3131 2003: 272003: 27 2004: 2004: 3232 2005: 252005: 25 2006: 262006: 26

25 Yr avg: 3125 Yr avg: 31

2006 Tropical Cyclonesvs Climatology

CPHC NHC

S Indian Ocean &Australia Region 2002: 21 2003: 20 2004: 25 2005: 20 2006: 19 25 Yr avg: 23

South Pacific 2002: 4 2003: 9 2004: 2 2005: 6 2006: 425 Yr avg: 6

C PacificC Pacific 2002: 52002: 5 2003: 22003: 2 2004: 22004: 2 2005: 12005: 1 2006: 42006: 4 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

NE PacificNE Pacific 2002: 2002: 1616 2003: 162003: 16 2004: 2004: 1616 2005: 162005: 16 2006: 212006: 2125 Yr avg: 1925 Yr avg: 19

Arabian Sea &Arabian Sea &Bay of BengalBay of Bengal

2002: 52002: 5 2003: 32003: 3 2004:2004: 5 5 2005: 72005: 7 2006: 52006: 5

25 Yr avg: 525 Yr avg: 5

2006 STORM TRACKS

2006 WESTPAC TRACKS

WESTPAC TRACK ERRORS

Total Forecast Error

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

Nau

tica

l Mile

s

24 Hr 5 Yr Ave

48 Hr 5 Yr Ave

72 Hr 5 Yr Ave

USPACOM GOAL

Total Forecast Error

230.9

289.4

225.2242.2

205.9 211.6224

324.5

280.2

304.6

275.1263.2

316.5

418.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Nau

tica

l Mile

s

96 Hr 5 Yr Ave

120 Hr 5 Yr Ave

USPACOM GOAL

WESTPAC TRACK ERRORS

Officially ImplementedExperimental

CROSS TRACK VS ALONG TRACK ERRORS

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast TAU

Err

or

(nm

)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

ALONG TRACK

CROSS TRACK

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast TAU

Err

or

(nm

)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

WESTPAC INTENSITY ERRORS

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(kts

)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

5 yr avg

NEW IN 2006

• Wind Probability Products Available• 3-hourly Updated Position Fully Operational• Advanced Dvorak Technique Evaluation• JTWC Ops Officer & Director• 5 Military TDOs• Civilianization

– 1 TDO – Former AF TDO– 1 Techniques Development Specialist

COMING IN 2007

• Reconnaissance – Civilianization – 1 Satellite Analyst (3FY07)– High Resolution Digital MTSAT– Increased Re-emphasis on Polar Orbiting Data– MARK IVB Termination (May)

• Along Track Error Evaluation• New JTOPS• COOP -- aka: AJTWC & ASATOPS• Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR)

Changes• THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional

Campaign (T-PARC) planning/participation

CHALLENGES

• AF Manning– Mil-to-Civ Conversions– PBD-720 Cuts – Lose 2 Analysts in FY09

• Reconnaissance – AFWA/XOGM & NESDIS/SAB Changes– MARK IVB Termination May 07

• Follow-on software being evaluated

QUESTIONS

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