joint global talent competitiveness and performance council webinar … · 2016-02-05 · joint...

Joint Global Talent Competitiveness and Performance

Council Webinar Agenda

February 12, 2014 ~ 2:00 - 3:30 PM

CALL IN NUMBER: 1-888-670-3525# CONFERENCE CODE: 769 481 6221#

http://wfl.adobeconnect.com/gtcp/

I. Chair’s Welcome & Opening Remarks Ric Shriver & Britt Sikes

II. Self-Introductions Council Members

III. Review of Today’s Agenda Ric Shriver/Britt Sikes

IV. Presentations

• “Simple Truths” Video Ric Shriver

• Overview of Presentation to House Select Committee for Healthcare Workforce Innovation Ric Shriver

• Common Measures Performance James Finch/Tony Carter http://floridajobs.org/workforce-board-resources/program-monitoring-and-reports/state-program-reports/common-measures-scorecard

• Employer Penetration Performance James Finch/Tony Carter

http://floridajobs.org/workforce-board-resources/program-monitoring-and-reports/state-program-reports/employer-penetration-incentives

• Florida Workforce Scorecard Quarterly Report Sal Nuzzo/Dr. Martha Evans (Florida Chamber Foundation)

V. Information Item

• Florida’s Economic Security Report of Employment and Outcomes James Finch/Tony Carter http://www.beyondeducation.org • Target Industries Report Debbie McMullian

VI. Open Discussion

VII. Chair’s Closing Remarks / Adjourn Britt Sikes/Ric Shriver

http://floridajobs.org/workforce-board-resources/program-monitoring-and-reports/state-program-reports/common-measures-scorecard

http://floridajobs.org/workforce-board-resources/program-monitoring-and-reports/state-program-reports/common-measures-scorecard



http://www.beyondeducation.org/

Common MeasuresPerformance

2009-2010Performance


2011-2012

Performance 2012 -2013 1st Quarter

Performance 2012 -2013

2nd Quarter

Performance 2012 -2013 3rd Quarter

Performance 2012 -2013

AnnualState Goal 2012-2013

USDOL Approved Performance Goals

2013-2014Adults:

1 Entered Employment Rate 82.90% 79.90% 74.20% 73.30% 73.10% 77.70% 80.20% 82.00% 79.00%2 Employment Retention Rate 90.70% 92.40% 91.80% 90.90% 91.20% 91.10% 91.20% 92.00% 91.50%3 Average 6-Months Earnings $21,064.20 $22,671.20 $20,479.20 $20,088.30 $19,883.30 $19,727.00 $19,190.40 $22,755 $21,500

Dislocated Workers: 4 Entered Employment Rate 79.70% 84.50% 84.20% 84.30% 84.60% 86.10% 86.90% 93.00% 90.00%5 Employment Retention Rate 87.40% 89.00% 90.00% 90.40% 90.90% 91.20% 90.90% 90.00% 90.00%6 Average 6-Months Earnings $16,715.40 $17,292.50 $16,835.70 $16,552.80 $16,302.80 $16,109.30 $15,758.70 $18,706 $17,621

Youth Common Measures:

7Placement in Employment or Education 52.70% 49.30% 47.70% 52.90% 53.50% 56.70% 64.80% 53.00% 53.00%

8Attainment of a Degree or Certificate 58.90% 61.50% 69.80% 75.40% 74.50% 72.30% 68.80% 70.00% 70.50%

9 Literacy and Numeracy Gains 41.10% 37.70% 45.30% 48.50% 49.80% 50.20% 47.90% 51.00% 50.00%

Wagner-Peyser:10 Entered Employment Rate 46.00% 50.00% 55.00% 57% 58% 58% 59% 61.00% 61.00%11 Employment Retention Rate 76.00% 79.00% 80.00% 81% 81% 81% 82% 89.00% 85.00%12 Average 6-Months Earnings $12,275.00 $12,948.00 $12,874.00 $12,902 $12,996 $12,901 $12,788 $14,283.00 $13,598

2012 - 2013 FLORIDA WORKFORCE COMMON MEASURES - STATEWIDE PERFORMANCEJuly 1, 2012 - June 30, 2013 Outcomes

Met (80-100% of negotiated)

Not Met (less than 80% of negotiated)

Exceeded (greater than 100% of negotiated)

Updated: 1/23/2014

Common MeasuresPerformance



2011-2012Performance 2012 -2013

State Goals 2012-2013

Performance 2013 -2014 1st

Quarter

USDOL Approved

Performance Goals

2013-2014Adults:

1 Entered Employment Rate 82.90% 79.90% 74.20% 80.20% 82.00% 79.70% 79.00%2 Employment Retention Rate 90.70% 92.40% 91.80% 91.20% 92.00% 91.00% 91.50%

3 Average 6-Months Earnings $21,064.20 $22,671.20 $20,479.20 $19,190.40 $22,755 $17,660.91 $21,500

Dislocated Workers:

4 Entered Employment Rate 79.70% 84.50% 84.20% 86.90% 93.00% 84.50% 90.00%5 Employment Retention Rate 87.40% 89.00% 90.00% 90.90% 90.00% 91.20% 90.00%

6 Average 6-Months Earnings $16,715.40 $17,292.50 $16,835.70 $15,758.70 $18,706 $15,700.17 $17,621

Youth Common Measures:

7Placement in Employment or Education 52.70% 49.30% 47.70% 64.80% 53.00% 56.90% 53.00%

8Attainment of a Degree or Certificate 58.90% 61.50% 69.80% 68.80% 70.00% 74.20% 70.50%

9 Literacy and Numeracy Gains 41.10% 37.70% 45.30% 47.90% 51.00% 48.90% 50.00%

Wagner-Peyser:

10 Entered Employment Rate 46.00% 50.00% 55.00% 59% 61.00% 59.00% 61.00%11 Employment Retention Rate 76.00% 79.00% 80.00% 82% 89.00% 82.00% 85.00%12 Average 6-Months Earnings $12,275.00 $12,948.00 $12,874.00 $12,788 $14,283.00 $12,822.00 $13,598

2013 - 2014 FLORIDA WORKFORCE COMMON MEASURES - STATEWIDE PERFORMANCEJuly 1, 2013 - December 31, 2013 Outcomes

Not Met (less than 80% of negotiated)

Met (80-100% of negotiated)

Exceeded (greater than 100% of negotiated)

Florida Chamber Foundation-Florida Workforce Scorecard Initiative Quarterly Report

October – December, 2013

2013: Quarter Four


Florida Chamber Foundation-Florida Workforce Scorecard Initiative

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Table of Contents

I. National & International Economic Overview 3 II. Florida Economic Overview 7 III. Trends in 2013:Q1 and Implications for Florida’s Workforce 10 Talent Supply & Education 10 Innovation & Economic Development 13 Business Climate & Competitiveness 16 IV. Overview of Economic and Workforce Indicators 18

Non-Farm Employment 20 Unemployment 21 Real GDP Growth 22 Housing Market 23

V. Regional Labor Market Analysis 25 Short-Run Labor Demand 27

Long-Run Labor Demand 28

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Section I. National and International Economic Overview NATIONAL OVERVIEW: In his final initiative as Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke sent a clear signal in December to global markets; the U.S. economy now needs “less help” from monetary policy. Citing sustained improvement in unemployment, housing prices, government budget conditions, and price levels, Bernanke announced that the Fed was ready to taper its quantitative easing initiative, as the economy continues to show signs that unemployment and inflation are both approaching target. According to TD Economics1, overall economic growth for 2013 would have approached 2.6% if not for the estimated 1.5% fiscal drag from the government shutdown. While the unemployment rate in November was still at 7%, its steady improvement from nearly 8.0% in January is an indication that the recovery’s forward momentum is sustainable. The Federal Reserve has made a commitment to keep short-term interest rates near zero, even after the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%, to prevent premature disruption of the economy’s forward momentum. 2 Other indicators cited by Bernanke point toward continued strength of the U.S. recovery going into 2014. Improvements in business profits and cash reserves, stronger bank capitalization, an abundant supply of loanable funds, easing of credit conditions, and improvements in consumer spending 3 have all played a role. Federal budget deficits are down 22% from November of last year, reflecting rising revenues from income and payroll tax hikes that kicked in 2013. These rising indicators all buoyed the stock market, which posted gains of 26.5% for the year. A stronger economy leads to a strengthening dollar, important to an import-sensitive nation like the U.S. While a stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive, they still surged by 1.8% in October, reducing the trade deficit by $2.3 billion. After adjusting for price level changes, real export growth was closer to 3.2%. A factor in this performance was a 6.0% increase in U.S. petroleum exports over the previous month. New research conducted by economists at Wells Fargo4 sheds light on the sensitivity of U.S. exports to fluctuations in exchange rates and foreign GDP growth. The exports-to-GDP ratio for the U.S. is only 13%. The analysis revealed that one quarter after a 1% increase in Eurozone GDP growth, U.S. real GDP growth rises by only 0.3% Effects for Japan and China are even less. Consequently, a strengthening dollar is a win-win for Americans; imports become cheaper, and while exports are more expensive to foreigners, they are a relatively small component of GDP. By the end of November, the international trade deficit had decreased another 12.9% from October, to $34.3 billion. Exports increased 0.9%, to $194.9 billion, and imports fell 1.4%, to $229.1 billion Housing Markets:

1 “The Weekly Bottom Line”, TD Economics, January 2, 2014. . 2 McGrane and DeCosta, “Bernanke Voices Optimism on Pace of Economic Recovery”, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 4-5, 2014. 3 Wessel, David, “Good Tidings for the U.S. Economy”, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 2, 2014. 4 “Is U.S. Growth Sensitive to Foreign Growth?”, Wells Fargo Securities Special Commentary, December 9, 2013.

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Wells Fargo’s 2014 Economic Outlook5 indicates that the U.S. housing market is being less driven by investors and speculators, and more by owner-occupants. Single-family housing starts showed the largest November improvement; 727,000 of the total 1.09 million for the month. By November, the housing market was showing signs that supply and demand are more closely balanced, which should lead to an increase in new construction. Zillow’s Chief Economist, Stan Humphries reported in a recent news article6 that prices should moderate in 2014, from an increase in Zillow’s home-price index for 2013 of 5.2% to 3% in 2014. Building permits have exceeded 1 million for two consecutive months. A noteworthy observation in the national housing market is the increase in construction of higher-priced homes. According to the U.S. census, households in the top 20% of earners realized a 6.4% gain in income from 2009 to 2012, compared to a 3.3% gain for middle-income households. Labor Markets: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7% as of December, from 7.9% in January, and the previously cited Wells Fargo report estimates that the U.S. should generate between 180,000 – 190,000 jobs per month as the economy continues its path toward full employment. But there are some underlying issues which are not revealed by the data. Jobs lost by women during the recession have been completely recovered, but the same is not true for men. A recent Wall Street Journal article 7 explains the reason: jobs in the sectors that have rebounded the fastest are usually held by women. These are health, education, hospitality and retail. But additional issues plague the labor market. In October, the labor force participation rate was at its lowest since 1984. This is explained by the combination of 800,000 who have left the job market, and some 8 million who are working part-time who would prefer to work full-time. Also, by 2020, every “baby boomer” will be over age 54, transforming the U.S. from an era of rapid labor force expansion to one of slow growth. And since 2000, women of all ages have been slowly exiting the labor force. It is estimated that by 2020, their participation rate will be lower than it was in 19908. The significance of these issues is that if population grows but labor force participation declines, the U.S. faces a shrinking base of workers to support those who are no longer working. This could generate significant pressure on fiscal policy, just as Congress is attempting to deal with budget issues and the debt burden. Strategies that could reverse this trend are expanding immigration, investing in programs to train young adults who do not or cannot attend college for skilled trades (many of which are now facing shortages), and reducing marginal tax rates on second-earners. Small Business Conditions: According to the Department of Commerce, 35% of the firms operating in the U.S. are five years old or less, compared to 40% in 2007. This indicates declining business dynamism, and in large part explains why the share of sales going toward wages and benefits has been steadily declining. After-tax profits as a share of GDP reached 10.9% in mid-2013, a level not seen since 1929, which generally encourages new firms to

5 “2014” Economic Outlook”, Wells Fargo Securities, December 11, 2013. 6 “Housing 2014: Steadier, Sturdier”, Wall Street Journal, December 23, 2013. 7 House, Jonathan, “Women Reach a Milestone in Job Market”, Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2013. 8 “Is the Unemployment Rate a Reliable Barometer?”, Wells Fargo Special Commentary, November 14, 2013.

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enter the market. Yet many would-be entrepreneurs face credit and funding difficulties that discourage firm formation, historically an important source of new jobs and innovation. And currently, roughly half of all minimum-wage workers work for small firms, according to the Census Bureau. The implication is that if fewer small businesses are being formed, the unemployment rate among young workers is likely to continue rising. Small firms lack the access to capital markets available to larger firms, and generally turn to commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions, according to the Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy. Complicating matters is that to obtain bank credit, many banks are requiring small businesses to provide documentation that they will be in compliance with the Affordable Care Act by 2015. A paper published recently in Business Economics9 reveals that it’s not so much the lack of credit availability that is problematic, but the lack of demand for credit on the part of small firms. They will be more reluctant to borrow, expand and create jobs when faced with the regulatory burden of the Affordable Care Act and the sluggish performance of the small business sector following the recession, compared to the relatively robust recovery of larger firms that operate in global markets. Household Finance: Credit card, mortgage, and other delinquency rates have been falling since 2009, but student loan delinquency rates have been rising, and nearly 12% of all student loan debt outstanding is now 90+ days delinquent. Household debt service ratios have reached lowest levels since 1980s. As this continues, consumers should be willing to take on more debt, and increase their spending. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in October reported that consumer credit increased by a 7.0% annual rate in October, 2013, compared to a rate of 1.3 in 2008, 4.1% in 2011, and 6.1% in 2012. In its December 31st release, The Conference Board reported gains in consumer confidence from 72.0 in November, to 78.1 for December10. This gain is attributed to more favorable economic and labor market conditions. A report released by TD Economics11 indicates that plans to purchase homes and appliances continue to rise, which to date have been significant to the overall recovery. A related report12 reveals that consumer spending hit its highest point in five months, which is a key driver of the economy; approximately 68% of GDP. Personal income gains in November reflect recent wage growth and increases in total hours worked. International Overview: Growth for the Eurozone is predicted to be only 1% for 2014, with inflation around 1%, both too low to bring down its high unemployment rate, now around 12%. Germany, the strongest economy in the Eurozone and the most influential voice in the European Central Bank, has emphasized belt-tightening and fiscal reforms, and is unlikely to advocate excessive monetary accommodation. A valid concern is that

9 Chow, Michael J. and William C. Dunkelbert, “Small Business Borrowing and the Bifurcated Economy: Why Quantitative Easing Has Been Ineffective for Small Business”, Business Economics, Vol. 48. No. 4, National Association for Business Economics, pages 214-223. 10 “U.S. Consumer confidence Rebounds in December”, The Conference Board, December 31, 2013, http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm. 11 TD Economics, Data Release, “Consumer Confidence More Upbeat as 2013 Draws to a Close”, December 31, 2013. 12 TD Economics, Data Release, “Consumer Spending in November Advances at Fastest Pace in 5 Months”, December 23, 2013.

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http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm



Europe’s weak inflation rate could lead to deflation, which is very difficult to escape, as demonstrated by Japan’s recent “lost decade”. Deflation weakens balance sheets and by default wealth, leading to lower wages and prices which add to the likelihood of prolonged stagnation. Even more serious, prolonged high unemployment rates can lead to a reduction in labor force participation. This could create the same fiscal drag that the U.S. is facing due to its aging population. The result could be a vicious cycle for an economy trying to recover from two recessions within five years. The debt-to-GDP ratios in some member countries are alarming; Ireland at over 400%, The Netherlands and Greece approaching 300%, and Italy and France close to 250%. With economic growth contracting overall by 0.4% in 2013, it is clear that the Eurozone needs a more rapid recovery, and inflation of at least twice this year’s rate to avoid a cycle of deflation and stagnation. Wells Fargo13 reports that China’s growth rate stabilized at around 7.5% for 2012. The Chinese government is allowing its currency to strengthen on the assumption that the economy is strong enough to withstand more global competition. This indirectly benefits other nations who are attempting to strengthen their own exports, as China’s currency becomes relatively more expensive.

Key Indicators - Q4 2013 Forecast

Real GDP growth 2012 2013 2014

World 3.1 2.9 3.4 World growth rate 2014 revised down since Q3

U.S. 2.8 1.8 2.7 U.S. growth rate 2013 and 2014 revised up since Q3

Canada 1.7 1.7 2.3 Canadian growth rate 2014 revised down since Q3

Eurozone -0.6 -0.4 1.0

Consumer Prices

Eurozone 2.5 1.4 1.2 Eurozone 2014 inflation revised down since Q3

U.S. 2.1 1.5 1.8 U.S. 2014 inflation revised down since Q3

Canada 1.5 1.0 1.5 Canadian inflation revised down since Q3

Unemployment

Eurozone 11.4 12.0 11.9 Eurozone 2013 unemployment revised up since Q3

U.S. 8.1 7.4 6.7 U.S. 2013 and 2014 unemployment revised down

Canada 7.3 7.0 6.7 Canadian 2013 and 2014 unemployment revised down since Q3

Source: TD Economics Quarterly Economic Forecast, Dec. 16, 2013

13 “Weekly Commentary”, Wells Fargo Securities, December 13, 2013.

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Section II. Florida Economic Overview Florida’s economic growth continues to outpace that of the nation. The Index of Leading Indicators published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve is well over 1.5% for Florida, indicating that economic activity is expanding. And as home prices continue to appreciate, the net worth of Floridians is buoyed, which supports spending in all sectors of the economy. TD Economics’ U. S. Regional Check-Up14 reports that Florida’s estimated Gross State Product will have increased by 2.3% to approximately $777 billion by September, 2013 over last year, higher than the nation’s estimated 1.8% increase. Estimates are growth of 3.2% for 2014 and 3.2% for 2015. New research by Wells Fargo Securities15 reiterates a perspective that was discussed in this report last quarter; Florida’s economy is becoming increasingly diversified. When the housing/construction/real estate sectors slowed during the recession, other sectors needed to pick up the slack, and indeed they did. Increases in tourism, international trade, healthcare and biosciences were noteworthy and helped drive Florida’s earlier, stronger recovery. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing during the recovery provided a particular boost to Florida’s exports, as a weakening dollar strengthened the currencies of Florida’s major trading partners; Canada, Brazil, the UK and the Eurozone. This level of economic diversification is essential to withstanding movements in the business cycle and preventing high, prolonged regional unemployment. Labor Markets: For four consecutive months, Florida’s unemployment rate has declined, and by November it was down to 6.4%. Worth noting is that while both Florida and the U.S. began 2013 with 7.9% unemployment, Florida ended the year more than half a percentage point below the U.S. Consensus forecasts are that through 2014, 2015 and beyond, Florida’s unemployment rate will be lower than that of the entire Lower South Atlantic region. Florida’s total nonfarm employment stood at 94% of its pre-recession peak in October, and job growth continues to be robust. The Sunshine State’s nonfarm employment rose by 1% October-November of this year, and by 2.5% for the year. The largest gains for the quarter were seen in retail (3.1%) and education (2.4%) Strongest gains for the year were seen in real estate (5.6%), retail (5.1%), production of goods (4.1%), leisure and hospitality (2.9%), and the services sector (2.3%). One concern is that wages are lowest in the sectors showing the highest growth, but this is true nationwide. Metro areas posting the highest job growth for the year are Port St. Lucie, Fort Lauderdale, Sarasota, and central Florida in general. The graph below, taken from the Wells Fargo report16 helps to visualize growth distribution throughout the state:

14 “U. S. Regional Check-Up”, TD Economics, October 21, 2013. 15 “Florida Economic Outlook: December 2013”, Wells Fargo Securities Special Commentary, December 17, 2013. 16 Ibid.

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Housing: Florida homes sales have risen 22% since November of last year (Zillow.com), compared to 16.6% for the nation. And home prices in Florida rose 15.8% for the year compared to 14.2% nationally. The housing market is cooling somewhat (2.3% drop in prices and 2.5% drop in sales for the quarter), but it is still robust enough to continue driving the overall recovery. These statistics are encouraging, but they must be viewed in context. The percent of delinquent mortgages in Florida is 16.3%, which is higher than the national average of 8.0%. Foreclosure rates are highest in the Miami and Tampa areas. This is a trend that bears watching, but hopefully will moderate as personal income and net worth continue to rise. There is good news on the credit front. A recent survey of real estate brokers conducted by the Atlanta Federal Reserve indicates that available credit for mortgage and construction finance exceeds the amount demanded by a much larger percentage than last year. The survey also indicates that borrowers who received the amount of credit requested rose to 42% in the third quarter of 2013, compared to only 28% in quarter one. Even though mortgage and other rates have risen slightly, history indicates that marginal

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changes while interest rates are already low, they have little impact on economic activity. This is good news for the housing market and for Florida’s households. The national homeownership rate at the end of last quarter was 65.3%, which is down 0.2% from last year, according to the Census Bureau. This is typical during recessions, as many owners become renters. Florida’s average homeownership rate as of last quarter stood at 66%; slightly higher than the national average, but far below its 2005 level of 72%. The significance is that homeowners tend to spend more on durable goods and improvements than do renters and landlords, so this is a trend to watch. By all indications, Florida’s foundation for continued economic growth is solid. Employment gains have been well-diversified across sectors, domestic in-migration is moving Florida ahead of New York as the nation’s third most populous state, construction is now adding around 3,000 jobs per month, and Florida’s budget surplus should reach $1.2 billion in 201417. Funding for road and ports improvements has been increased, and tourism has already recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. These factors combined could position Florida for 3.5% growth in gross state product for 2014, and 4% in 2015.

17 “U.S. Quarterly State Forecast”, TD Economics, December 18, 2013.

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Section III. Trends in 2013:Q3 and Implications for Florida’s Workforce Talent Supply & Education and Workforce Florida’s Strategic Projects The supply of talent in Florida has been recognized by many partners across the public and private sectors as critical to producing an innovation economy that will power the jobs of tomorrow. In order to provide an appropriately skilled labor force for both today’s businesses as well as emerging industries, efforts of Workforce Florida have focused on strategic projects surrounding a Talent Supply Chain for High Performance in the Strategic Plan as well as STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) Leadership for Florida. An assessment of trend analysis and reports released through December, 2013 indicates the following:

The Florida Department of Education published its Strategic Plan 2012-201818 in October of last year. One of the plan’s stated goals is the development of a “skilled workforce and economic development”. To achieve this, the plan proposes to “expand STEM–related educational opportunities in high demand areas” for K-12 students, and to “prepare students for careers” for postsecondary students. For K-12 students a performance indicator will be to “increase the number of students performing at grade level.” Performing at “grade level” means to score at level 3.0 on the FCAT 2.0 assessment examinations. A related goal is that 56% of students perform at level 4 or above in reading, and 61% perform at level 4 or above in math. Other goals are to increase high-school graduation rates to 92%, and to “improve college readiness” by achieving a “college ready score on an approved assessment,” such as the SAT. Taking these goals individually, and comparing them to 2012 results reveals the following:

Performance Indicator: 2012 Actual 2017-2018 Goal

1. Increase % of students performing at grade level in reading 57% 83%

2. Increase % of students performing at grade level in math 58% 82%

3. Increase % of students performing at grade level in science 50% TBD

4. Increase % of students performing at level 4 or above in reading 31% 56%

5. Increase % of students performing at level 4 or above in math 36% 61%

6. Increase high-school graduation rates 71% 92% Source: Florida Department of Education

Barely half of all Florida students are performing at grade level, and not even one-third are performing above, as measured by Florida’s own performance criteria.

18 Florida’s State Board of Education Strategic Plan for the Public School System and the Florida College System, October, 2012.

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Yet when measured using standards of the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP), which reports scores only for fourth and eighth-graders, Florida’s students are making headway. Florida’s fourth-graders improved their performance in reading (performance is measured as the percent of students performing “at or above Basic”) from 71% in 2011 to 75% in 2013. Eighth-graders’ reading scores improved from 73% to 77%. In math, fourth-grade scores remained level at 84% for 2011 – 2013, and eighth-graders improved their scores to from 68% to 70%. Hillsborough county’s fourth and eighth-graders outscored the national average for “large cities”.19 It should be noted that the performance standards for NAEP testing are “Basic”, which according to the NAEP denotes “partial mastery of prerequisite knowledge and skills that are fundamental for proficient work at the grade level assessed”. Both absolute and relative scores can mask the actual achievement levels of students in all grades, and not provide enough information about college-readiness or the competitiveness of the future labor force. But year-over-year percentage gains are certainly a positive indicator.

Apart from the K-12 scores are results from ACT examinations, which are intended to measure students’ “college readiness”. These examinations are typically taken in the junior year of high-school. The standards are as follows20:

Results for Florida’s 67 counties in 2013 were as follows21:

• English: 43 counties scored at or above Benchmark • Math: 2 counties scored at or above Benchmark • Reading: 16 counties scored at or above Benchmark

19 “Two Florida School Districts Excel in National Assessment, Florida Department of Education Press Release, Department of Education, December 18, 2013. 20 “ACT College Readiness Benchmarks”, from ACT.org, http://act.org/solutions/college-career-readiness/college-readiness-benchmarks. 21 “ACT District Means”, Florida Department of Education ACT Reports, http://www.fldoe.org/evaluation/act-sat-ap.asp .

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http://act.org/solutions/college-career-readiness/college-readiness-benchmarks

http://act.org/solutions/college-career-readiness/college-readiness-benchmarks

http://www.fldoe.org/evaluation/act-sat-ap.asp



• Science: 0 counties scored at Benchmark

Highest scores in all areas were reported in Okaloosa County, and the lowest were reported from Gadsden County.

The essential question is, from what labor force will Florida’s employers be recruiting? For many service sector jobs (which have been posting the highest employment gains), the local available labor force is a more likely pool, and the logical metric would be the Florida FCAT scores and high-school graduation rates. But for higher-paying jobs (STEM, management, finance, etc.), employers are more likely to expand their search to the national and even international levels. International performance is measured by results of the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), which measures the knowledge of 15-year olds compared to their peers internationally. Florida students participated for the first time this year, along with Massachusetts and Connecticut. Student scores for Massachusetts and Connecticut were above the OECD averages on all exams, while Florida’s scores were below average in math and science. And overall U. S. performance was below the OECD average in math, and just at average in reading and science.

Another noteworthy goal of the strategic plan is to “expand digital education,” which means to increase access to desktop and mobile computers across all grade levels. This report for Quarter 3, 2013 presented evidence from Amanda Ripley’s book, The Smartest Kids in the World and How They Got That Way22 indicating that students in Korea and Finland outperform students from 30 other OECD nations on PISA’s math and science exams. Yet technology is remarkably absent from classrooms in these nations. Given the cost, both direct and indirect, of providing enhanced technology in classrooms, it bears noting whether these expenditures will have a direct correlation with improved student performance. All evidence is informative, and the fact that human and financial resources are scarce merits consideration of this evidence.

As data are made available, this report will continue to track all three measures; FCAT performance, ACT scores, and PISA performance in order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the potential future labor force, compared to the possible recruitment sources for Florida’s employers.

Innovation & Economic Development and Workforce Florida’s Strategic Projects The technological change and increased efficiencies brought about by innovative methods will continue to shape and drive Florida’s economy. Workforce Florida has recognized the importance of meeting the changing workforce demands of an economy which is influenced by innovation through a strategic project that aims to provide real-time information on the Workforce Supply and Demand Analysis in Florida. As new companies form and existing businesses expand they will look to hire workers with the necessary skills to meet their business demand. An assessment of trend analysis through December, 2013 indicates the following trends:

22 Ripley, Amanda, The Smartest Kids in the World and How They Got That Way, pub. Simon & Schuster, August, 2013.

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International Trade:

Florida Exports:

Through October, Florida’s exports were down $4.7 billion from the prior year, a nearly 9% decline23. But much of this decline can be explained by falling gold prices; $2.5 billion of the drop was seen in “non-ferrous metals,” specifically gold scrap exported to Switzerland. Gold prices throughout 2012 were at a near-term high, which can help explain much of the drop in total exports. Gold prices as of December were at their lowest levels in three years, explaining over half of the decline in Florida’s 2013 exports this year. Data just released for November indicates a similar year-to-date drop; $5.3 billion which is an 8.7% decline over the prior year.24

Other declining areas were chemicals, transportation equipment, and industrial machinery. Florida’s exports as of last quarter accounted for about 6% of Florida’s Gross State Product, compared to 13% for the nation, which indicates that Florida’s export-sensitivity even lower than that of the U.S. While this is an area in which growth is desirable, declines have a smaller impact on Florida’s well-diversified economy than they do for the nation as a whole.

Florida Imports:

Florida’s imports year-to-date for October this year were 2.5% higher than the same period last year, and the change for November year-to-date was an increase of 1.6%. While analysts are generally more concerned with the trade deficit, (which was $6.3 billion year-to-date in both 2012 and 2013), it only measures the net difference in the movements of goods. It is informative to note that the import sector creates infrastructure spending and related jobs, and is in itself, a contributor to gross state product.

Tourism:

In spite of the continuing recovery, in spite of the government shutdown, and against odds that would lower rather than raise expectations, visitation to the state increased 1.7% in the third quarter of 2013 over last year. Attendance at state parks hit a record high; indicating that in-state pleasure trips by Florida residents has increased. Hotel room rates are 3.6% higher than they were last year, and occupancy rates are up 1.9%. Employment in the sector is up a solid 4.0% over the same time last year. Leisure and hospitality have added an average of 3,300 jobs per month since last year. For the 2012-2013 fiscal year, VISIT Florida25 reports that 91.5 million out-of-state and international tourists visited Florida, while 20.3 million Floridians visited in-state attractions, parks and tourist destinations; a total of 111.8 million “travelers” to the state. Out-of-state and international tourists comprised 82% of the total for 2012-2013, compared to 80% the prior year. It will be important to compare these statistics coming as U.S. interest rates begin to rise and the dollar strengthens.

23 “Florida Economic Outlook: December 2013”, Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group Special Report, December 17, 2013. 24 “Origin of Movement of U.S. Exports of Goods by State by NAICS-Based Product Code Groupings, Not Seasonally Adjusted: 2013”, U.S. Census Press Release, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh2s.pdf. 25 “Visit Florida 2012-2013 Annual Report”, http://visitflorida.org/media/4722/yearinreview2013.pdf.

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http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh2s.pdf

http://visitflorida.org/media/4722/yearinreview2013.pdf



An additional objective within this category of the Six Pillars is to raise Florida’s research and development capabilities and standing. This initiative covers many areas, including Life Sciences, Cleantech, Infotech, Aviation and Aerospace, Logistics and Distribution, and Manufacturing.

Five years ago, Globalfoundaries, Inc. provided the state of New York with an influx of 2,200 new STEM-related jobs, but it was unable to find enough people with the needed skills. As a result more than half of the positions were filled with out of state workers, and 11% were filled by foreigners26. Bayer Corporation, the U.S. counterpart of the giant German chemical and pharmaceutical firm Bayer AG, is soon releasing a study it conducted among recruiters, 50% of whom indicate that they were forced to step up their recruitment of foreign workers to fill STEM jobs in the U.S. Then in November of this year, two articles appeared in the Wall Street Journal27 indicating that foreign student enrollment in U.S. universities is at an all-time high, especially among Indian and Chinese students. These students are working toward developing skills that are not being supplied in sufficient quantity by the U.S. labor force. They then become part of the U.S. labor supply, competing for the available STEM-related jobs. American universities have been recruiting heavily overseas for foreign students whose tuition dollars to help make up for decreasing public subsidies.

Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity reports that Help Wanted OnLine ads for STEM jobs has increased over 6% since November last year, and a stunning 81.4% since 201028. Available STEM jobs for November were 61,168. Sectors seeing the highest demand are healthcare, computer and mathematical occupations, business and financial operations, and architecture and engineering occupations. In November of this year, the openings for STEM jobs were much higher than openings for lower-paying jobs in manufacturing, trade and services, which are traditionally lower paying jobs. But most of Florida’s employment gains have been in goods-producing, retail trade, and services which are related to construction and tourism.

A reasonable proxy for the gap between STEM Demand and Supply is a comparison between the year-over-year change in STEM job openings posted online, and STEM employment increases for the same period. Between November 2012 – 2013, STEM job openings increased by 6.4%, according to the DEO report cited above. But employment in what can be identified as STEM-related occupations rose only by about 2.5%29, indicating a supply gap of nearly 4%. There is clearly a link between the education gap in STEM-related student performance, and the STEM Demand-Supply gap in Florida.

26 “Math, Science Degrees? Apply Here”, Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2013. 27 “Foreign Students at Record Level”, Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2013. Also, “India Fuels Surge in Foreign Students”, November 5, 2013. 28 “Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Jobs in Demand – Florida November, 2013”, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, http://lmsresources.labormarketinfo.com/library/stem/statewide.pdf. 29 “Florida’s November Employment Figures Released”, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Press Release, December 20, 2013, http://lmsresources.labormarketinfo.com/library/press/release.pdf.

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http://lmsresources.labormarketinfo.com/library/stem/statewide.pdf

http://lmsresources.labormarketinfo.com/library/press/release.pdf



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Business Climate & Competitiveness and Workforce Florida’s Strategic Projects Communication and sharing of knowledge between Florida’s industries and workforce development partners is critical to ensure a business climate that is competitive regionally, nationally and internationally. To help meet the informational need, this initiative serves to provide detailed analysis to support Workforce Florida’s strategic project producing The Best Informed Target Industry Cluster-specific Task Forces.

An assessment of trend analysis and reports released through September, 2013 indicates:

Around 27% of employees in firms that have existed for between 1 – 5 years, are between ages 25-34, and over 70% of these workers are under age 45.30 The regional supply of young workers is an important factor in the creation and growth of new firms, especially in high-tech industries such as biotech, electronics, and telecommunications. For example, the study cited above indicates that a 5% increase in the share of young workers in the population (age 16-24) leads to an increase in firm formation in electronics of around 2%. And young workers in young firms on average earn higher wages than young workers in older firms. But a report published by Florida’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research31 indicates that the percentage of Florida’s “prime working age” population (ages 25-54) is shrinking; down to 39.7% of total population in 2013 from 41.5% in 2000. By 2030 it is expected to decline to 36.0%. This trend works against the goals of increasing employment in STEM jobs and new business formation in the state. The implications are more dramatically represented by Florida’s population pyramids, below. The percent of the state’s population in the older strata are growing at higher rates than in the lower strata:

Source: Florida Department of Economic and Demographic Research

30 Ouimet, Paige and Rebecca Zarutskie, “Who Works for Startups? The Relation between Firm Age, Employee Age, and Growth, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., October, 2013. 31 “The Florida Legislature Econographic News”, Vol. 1, 2013.

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This issue has implications in two important areas: Talent Supply & Education and Business Climate & Competitiveness. Discussed in this report for Quarter 3, 2013 was the fact that Florida’s recovery is being led by construction and tourism, two sectors dominated by SMBs (small-to-medium sized firms). If this is the case, then a lack of young workers in the labor force could become an impediment to the formation of the very type of new firms that are leading the recovery. According to the U.S. Census32, of Florida’s 490,851 business establishments, 99% employ 500 people or less. And of Florida’s 6.7 million workers, nearly 75% work for these “small” firms. The small business economy is vital to Florida, and the composition of Florida’s labor force is important to these companies. So, not only is the recovery being driven by small businesses that tend to hire younger workers, but the study cited on the previous page indicates that a younger population encourages formation of firms who supply STEM-related jobs. There is further evidence of the importance of encouraging the formation of smaller, local businesses. A report published by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta33 provides statistical evidence that a one percent increase in small business establishments in a county, leads to a .23% increase in per capita local income, whereas a one percent increase in larger firms (non-SMBs) was found to be statistically insignificant.

32 2011 County Business Patterns: Geography Area Series: County Business Patterns by Employment Size Class, http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=BP_2011_00A3&prodType=table. 33 Rupasingha, Anil, “Locally Owned: Do Local Business Ownership and Size Matter for Local Economic Well-being?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper, August, 2013.

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Section IV. Overview of Economic and Workforce Indicators Economic Indicators 2013: Q2 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Zillow Real Estate Network, Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research Footnote: Per Capita Personal Income = Total Personal Income/Annual Population.

Both state and national per capita income reflect weaker quarterly gains heading into the fourth quarter, although on a year-over-year basis, both U.S. and Florida per capita personal income show encouraging positive gains. Both reflect the fact that while the economy is still expanding, it is doing so at a slower pace. Florida’s housing sales remain strong, but the growth is slowing slightly as the number of available units for sale declines. By November of this year, prices for single-family homes were up nearly 16% from the same time last year; nationally prices were up slightly over 14% for the same period. Employment in Florida has risen by 183,100 since November of last year, dropping the state’s unemployment level from 8.6% to 6.4%, below the national rate of 6.7%; a reflection of strong performance in the housing and tourism sectors.

Current Quarter Year Ago Over the Year Quarter

Ago Over the Quarter 2013 Q2

2013 Q3 2012 Q3 Level Percent 2013 Q2 Level Percent US Value

FL Per Capita Personal Income $42,623 $40,818 $1,805 4.4% $42,126 $497 1.18% -

US Per Capita Personal Income $44,766 $42,748 $2,018 4.7% $44,299 $467 1.05% $44,766

FL Housing Sales 134,496 111,229 23,267

20.92% 141,950 -7,454 -5.25% 1,260,777

FL Non-Agricultural Employment (Nov) 7,627,400 7,444,300

183,100 2.45% 7,552,700 74,700 0.98% 144,775,000

FL Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.4% 8.6% -2.2 - 7.4 -1.00 - 7.0%

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Florida’s Workforce Indicators 2013: Q4

Current Quarter

Year Ago Over the Year Change Quarter

Ago Over-the-Quarter

Change 2013 Q4 2012 Q4 Level Percent 2013 Q3 Level Percent

Average Number of Reemployment Assistance Claimants per Month 229,912 299,883 -69,971 -2.33% 255,376 -25,464 -9.97%

Number of Reemployment Assistance Claimants placed into jobs 36,752 41,671 -4,919 -11.80% 35,132 1,620 4.60%

Average Number of Job Openings Available per Month 265,407 256,721 8,686 3.38% 263,744 1,663 0.63%

Number of Individuals Placed in Jobs 131,509 138,853 -7,344 -5.29 121,943 9,566 7.84%

Average Percentage of Job Openings Filled per Month 14.61%* 18.01% -3.4 - 16.15% -1.54 -

Average Percentage of Reemployment Assistance Claimants Placed into Jobs per Month 5.76%* 4.62% 1.14 - 4.59% 1.17 -

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Monthly Placement Reports Note: Quarterly statistics are calculated as the monthly average of the quarter. *Data provided only for October.

A mirror of Florida’s declining unemployment rate, the average number of reemployment assistance claimants continued to decline, both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. The number of reemployment assistance claimants placed into jobs will naturally decline over the year as the economy continues to improve, although the rate was somewhat higher the last quarter of the year than for the third quarter. The number of job openings continues to improve, reflecting the gains in construction and tourism.

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Florida Non-Agricultural Employment:

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

The graph above illustrates that Florida’s non-agricultural employment rose to 7,627,000 in November, an increase of 183,100 or 2.45 percent since the same time last year. Year-to-date, Florida is up 175,000 jobs, adding an average of 15,909 jobs per month for eleven straight months. The largest year-over-year gains have come from the services sector, trade, transportation & utilities, retail trade and leisure and hospitality.

Geographically, the largest November year-over-year gains in employment have been in Workforce Region 20 (5.37%), Workforce Region 2 (3.88%), and Workforce Region 24 (3.51). The smallest year-over-year gains were seen in Workforce Region 4; a net loss of 2.28% in employment.

As unemployment levels fall as they have in Florida to below the national rate, job growth will typically tend to slow somewhat.

7,150

7,200

7,250

7,300

7,350

7,400

7,450

7,500

7,550

7,600

7,650

Florida Non-Farm Employment (in thousands)

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Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate: Florida’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 7.0 in August, to 6.4% as of November. Florida’s unemployment rate has improved dramatically since a year ago, when the rate was 8.0%. As discussed earlier in this report, Florida’s well-diversified economy is an important contributing factor.

The state’s highest unemployment rate was seen in Hendry County (Workforce Region 24), with a rate of 11.3%. The lowest rate was seen in Monroe County (Workforce Region 23), with a rate of only 3.7%.

While the unemployment rate may continue to fall as the economy expands, the decrease may slow as the rate drops further.

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5Florida Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

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Real GDP:

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Note: The U.S. GDP data and chart that have been used in the past for this report were based upon a chain-weighted price index in which the price level at 2005 = 100. For this report and beyond, the base year (the year in which the price level = 100) has been adjusted to 2009 to reflect the manner in which real GDP is currently being reported by the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the total value of economic output of the national economy adjusted for inflation over time, seasonally adjusted. Real GDP is a preferable measure because it accurately reflects economic conditions and output after adjustments for changing price levels. GDP in Q2:2012 was $15,428 (in billions), in Q4:2012 it was $15,540; and in Q2:2013 it reached $15,839. From the relatively flat growth in the last half of 2012, the economy began to accelerate swiftly as 2013 unfolded, making real headway in the first six months of the year as the housing market continued to firm and household balance sheets improved.

Now that the revised data is in for Q2 of 2013, most forecasters have indicated stronger anticipated growth for 2014 and have set their forecasts to 2.7% annual growth.

Headwinds include the recent announcement by the Federal Reserve that it will begin tapering, but these expectations have already been absorbed into financial markets. Moderate increases in interest rates are not expected to be a significant factor, as marginal changes are generally small when interest rates are already low.

Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013

15,428.015,540.0

15,839.0

Billi

ons o

f 200

9 Do

llars

U. S. Real GDP

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output_(economics)



Workforce professionals will want to track U.S. real GDP growth rates as they tend to be highly correlated with Florida’s labor market performance, although there is an approximate one-year lag.

Source: U. S. Census, Construction by State Monthly

Florida’s Housing Market: The housing recovery in Florida continues to show signs of improvement, in both sales prices and volumes. Florida’s issued a record number of building permits for the year in May, but the levels are beginning to taper somewhat. In May, 9,533 permits were issued, down to 6,879 for November. However, that volume is still higher on a monthly basis than it was even in 2005 before the housing market collapsed.

Home prices continue to strengthen; up nearly 16% since November of last year. This compares to U.S. price appreciation of just slightly over 14%. Improvement in the housing market is a key driver of direct and indirect job creation, as housing has a large multiplier effect on other industries.

These statistics are encouraging, but a potential headwind is the percent of delinquent mortgages in Florida; 16.3%, which is higher than the national average of 8.0%. Foreclosure rates are highest in the Miami and Tampa areas.

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000Florida New Building Permits

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Florida Chamber of Commerce Small Business Survey: October – December, 2013

Due to the Holiday Season, the Small Business Survey is not available for this report. The survey results will be reported when available as a Supplement to this report.

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Section V. Regional Labor Market Analysis Understanding Florida’s labor market is necessary for identifying opportunities and challenges for economic development and workforce operations. The ratio of Help Wanted Online Ads and unemployed individuals by region allows us to determine supply and demand characteristics at the state and regional level. While this study is limited to help wanted online ads, (since the number unemployed and the unemployment rate are not seasonally adjusted) it is a useful tool on a regional level in the determination of labor conditions. While the number of help wanted online ads is not necessarily representative of all job openings, it does serve as a reasonable proxy. The measurement of the Labor Market Ratio is the number of unemployed individuals per job. A decrease in the number of unemployed individuals or an increase in the number of online ads would lower this ratio, therefore suggesting more employment opportunities.

RWB Unemployed Help Wanted Labor Unemployment Avg.

Quarterly

Individuals (Nov.

2013 Ads (Nov. 2013) Market Ratio Rate (Nov. 2013)

Wage (Q2, 2013)

1 12,602 5,135 2.45 5.9 $9,291 2 5,826 3,601 1.62 4.4 $9,539 3 2,757 688 4.01 5.7 $8,072 4 5,947 3,296 1.80 6.3 $8,716 5 10,031 6,226 1.61 5.4 $9,785 6 3,178 596 5.33 6.5 $8,361 7 3,058 911 3.36 6.3 $8,485 8 43,212 19,472 2.22 5.9 $10,818 9 7,293 5,046 1.45 4.9 $10,301

10 14,782 5,179 2.85 7.1 $8,625 11 18,931 6,598 2.87 6.7 $8,695 12 69,059 36,027 1.92 5.8 $10,062 13 18,114 6,503 2.79 6.8 $10,916 14 26,860 12,849 2.09 6 $10,525 15 38,252 27,087 1.41 6 $11,495 16 18,484 4,413 4.19 7.2 $8,771 17 19,407 6,356 3.05 7.3 $9,252 18 18,795 12,979 1.45 6.1 $9,743 19 4,863 1,079 4.51 7.5 $7,860 20 21,468 6,361 3.37 7.6 $9,016 21 40,598 20,691 1.96 6.4 $11,591 22 53,375 24,267 2.20 5.2 $11,192 23 91,761 36,342 2.52 6.9 $11,411 24 33,804 18,729 1.80 6.3 $9,707

State 582,457 270,431 2.15 6.4 $9,676 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

According to this analysis, there were 2.15 individuals per online ad in the month of November at the state level; equating to just over two unemployed individuals per 10 online ads; down from last quarter.

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Region 15 (Hillsborough county) had the lowest level of labor market tightness, with a labor market ratio of 1.41. Region 6 (Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee and Taylor Counties) had the highest level of labor market tightness, with a labor market ratio of 5.33. The number of online ads in Region 6 was the lowest in the state, despite the fact that its number unemployed is not the lowest in the state, which explains its high ratio.

Region 23 (Miami-Dade and Munroe Counties) had the highest number of unemployed individuals in the state, and it also had the highest number of online ads reported.

Regions 2, 22, and 5 experienced the lowest unemployment rates in November, with all three regions exhibiting unemployment rates under 6 percent. Regions 20, 19, and 16 had the highest unemployment rates; all above 7%. This disparity in unemployment does suggest that while Florida’s labor market has been improving since the depths of the Great Recession, certain regions are lagging behind. In addition, this measure does not include those who are marginally employed or those who have been discouraged from the workforce due to the lack of employment opportunities.

Regions 21, 15, and 23 had the highest average quarterly wage with workers earning on average more than $11,400 throughout the third quarter of 2013. Region 19 had the lowest average quarterly wage, with workers earning on average, under $8,000. Region 3 workers earned just slightly over $8,000 on average for the quarter. Wage differentials can be explained by numerous factors; among them the quality of the jobs and of the labor force itself, the regional cost of living, and the total number of hours worked per worker. If an employer chooses to cut hours instead of laying off workers, the worker remains employed, but takes home a smaller paycheck.

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Labor Demand - Short-Run Perspective: In order to better align regional workforce to the needs of businesses, it is important to know what occupations are in high demand. Based on the Department of Economic Opportunity’s Help Wanted Online Ads summary, the following occupations were the top advertised occupations for Florida in September:

• Registered Nurses

• Retail Salespersons

• First-line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

• Customer Service Representatives

• First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation & Serving Workers

• First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers

• Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Ex. Tech. & Scientific

• Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

• Medical and Health Services Managers

Throughout the state, the top advertised occupation is that of the registered nurse, as was the case for the previous quarterly report. A new entry to the list was Medical and Health Services Managers, which, along with nursing, relate to the changing demographic profile of the state. As the population ages, occupations in healthcare and healthcare administration are expected to rise. As a result of current labor market trends and projections of employment patterns for Florida’s economy, Workforce Florida Inc. can help alleviate the skills-mismatch by focusing on service sector training programs.

Aside from Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck drivers shifting down the list, and Customer Service Representatives moving ahead of First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation & Serving Workers, the list was relatively unchanged from last quarter.

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Labor Demand - Long - Run Perspective: While the Help Wanted Online Ads provide a short-run perspective as to current labor demand, a long-run perspective can complement the overall analysis by providing direction for education professionals, vocational – technical training program directors, and others who work toward developing Florida’s labor supply. The chart below gives an overview of the sectors that are expected to create the most jobs in the state, expressed as an annual percent growth rate through 2020. The list is limited to sectors generating approximately 2.5% annual growth or better. Obviously, a great deal of job growth will take place in civil engineering, real estate and construction, since these were areas of significant job loss during the recession. What can also be observed, are the many healthcare and healthcare administration positions that will be in demand. Even though this may be an operating assumption on the part of most decision-makers, it is helpful to validate this assumption, and to quantify it in annual terms. In future reports, this analysis will be broken down by Workforce Region so that decision makers will have more information at the regional and local levels. (See tables, below):

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Job Category Annual Percent Change

2012-2020 Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic 7.47 Helpers - Carpenters 7.40 Helpers - Brickmasons, and Tile & Marble Setters 6.23 Biomedical Engineers 5.93 Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers 5.50 Geographers 5.36 Helpers - Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 4.86 Tapers 4.82 Stonemasons 4.63 Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 4.60 Pile-Driver Operators 4.54 Cost Estimators 4.53 Glaziers 4.53 Biochemists and Biophysicists 4.50 Home Health Aides 4.44 Brickmasons and Blockmasons 4.42 Personal and Home Care Aides 4.38 Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers 4.30 Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 4.11 Helpers, Construction Trades 3.98 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 3.95 Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers 3.95 Helpers - Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, & Stucco 3.94 Heating, A.C., and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 3.87 Insulation Workers, Mechanical 3.85 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 3.80 Mathematical Science Occupations, All Other 3.77 Marriage and Family Therapists 3.71 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 3.67 Plasterers and Stucco Masons 3.63 Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall 3.62 Interpreters and Translators 3.57

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Mechanical Door Repairers 3.56 Meeting and Convention Planners 3.47 Animal Care and Service Workers 3.40 Tile and Marble Setters 3.40 Supervisors, Construction and Extraction Workers 3.39 First-Line Superv. of Construction and Extraction Workers 3.39 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 3.38 Logisticians 3.34 Operating Engineers/Construction Equipment Operators 3.31 Helpers - Electricians 3.29 Dental Hygienists 3.24

Job Category Annual Percent

Change 2012-2020

Construction Laborers 3.24 Medical Secretaries 3.21 Occupational Therapist Assistants 3.19 Survey Researchers 3.18 Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators 3.14 Health Educators 3.07 Pipelayers 3.07 Construction Trades Workers 3.04 Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters 3.04 Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 3.02 Construction and Extraction Occupations 3.02 Audiologists 2.99 Structural Iron and Steel Workers 2.98 Medical and Public Health Social Workers 2.96 Cartographers and Photogrammetrists 2.94 Helpers - Construction Trades, All Other 2.92 Carpenters 2.91 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 2.90 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2.90 Physical Therapist Assistants 2.89 Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers 2.89 Bicycle Repairers 2.88 Vocational Education Teachers, Postsecondary 2.87 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 2.86 Epidemiologists 2.85 Pest Control Workers 2.83 Riggers 2.83 Veterinarians 2.81 Medical Equipment Repairers 2.81 Motorcycle Mechanics 2.77 Electricians 2.76

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Philosophy and Religion Teachers, Postsecondary 2.75 Physician Assistants 2.75 Occupational and Physical Therapist Assistants and Aides 2.74 Fence Erectors 2.73 Human Resources, Labor Relations, and Training Specialists, All Other 2.72 Network and Computer Systems Architects and Administrators 2.72 Coaches and Scouts 2.72 Terrazzo Workers and Finishers 2.71 Database Administrators 2.70 Training and Development Specialists 2.68 Personal Financial Advisors 2.67 Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians 2.67 Law Teachers, Postsecondary 2.65


Change 2012-2020

Painters, Construction and Maintenance 2.64 Occupational Therapists 2.63 Loan Counselors 2.62 Legal Support Workers 2.59 Physical Therapists 2.59 Dental Assistants 2.59 Sheet Metal Workers 2.59 Occupational Therapist Aides 2.58 Motorboat Mechanics 2.57 Curators 2.56 Software Developers, Systems Software 2.55 Statisticians 2.52 Mental Health Counselors 2.52 Ethnic & Cultural Studies Teachers, Postsecondary 2.50 Anesthesiologists 2.50 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 2.50 Business Teachers, Postsecondary 2.48 Pediatricians, General 2.48 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 2.48 Internists, General 2.45 Therapists, All Other 2.42 Outdoor Power Equipment and Small Engine Mechanics 2.42 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary 2.41 Obstetricians and Gynecologists 2.41 Life Scientists 2.40 Art, Drama, and Music Teachers, Postsecondary 2.40 Grounds Maintenance Workers 2.40 Education Administrators, Postsecondary 2.39 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks 2.39

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Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 2.38 Other Personal Care and Service Workers 2.38 Respiratory Therapists 2.37 Healthcare Support Occupations 2.37 Psychology Teachers, Postsecondary 2.36 History Teachers, Postsecondary 2.36 Management Analysts 2.35 Financial Examiners 2.35 Architecture Teachers, Postsecondary 2.35 Surgeons 2.35 Medical Assistants 2.35 Postsecondary Teachers 2.34 Education Teachers, Postsecondary 2.34 Pharmacy Technicians 2.34 Construction Managers 2.33


Change 2012-2020

Economics Teachers, Postsecondary 2.33 Political Science Teachers, Postsecondary 2.33 Social Science Research Assistants 2.32 Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials 2.32 Receptionists and Information Clerks 2.32 Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary 2.31 Environmental Science Teachers, Postsecondary 2.31 Registered Nurses 2.31 Microbiologists 2.30 Sociologists 2.30 Social Work Teachers, Postsecondary 2.30 Psychologists, All Other 2.29 Athletic Trainers 2.28 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 2.28 Special Education Teachers, Preschool - Elementary 2.27 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 2.27 Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary 2.26 Special Education Teachers, Middle School 2.26 Health Technologists and Technicians 2.26 Actuaries 2.25 Foreign Language & Literature Teachers, Postsecondary 2.25 Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners 2.25 Architects, Except Landscape and Naval 2.24 Physics Teachers, Postsecondary 2.24 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 2.24

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This report was made possible through a partnership between

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joint global talent competitiveness and performance council webinar … · 2016-02-05 · joint...

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