A Dynamic Simulation Model for Integrated Water Resources Management

in Albuquerque, NM

John M. Stomp III, PE

Chief Operating Officer, Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority

November 2013

Albuquerque’s 1997 Water Resource Management Strategy Included:

Programs already implemented– Conservation– Reuse for industry and irrigation– Use of surface water (Colorado

San Juan-Chama trans-basin diversion to Rio Grande)

Potential future programs– Aquifer storage and recovery (related to surface water treatment)– Contaminated groundwater (industry contamination & brackish

water aquifer development)– Stormwater capture

2

#

Navajo Reservoir

#

Heron Lake

#

Abiquiu Reser

RIO

CH

AMA

#

LITTLE NAVAJO RIVER

COLORADO

NEW MEXICO #

26 Milesof Tunnels

#

Diversions

#

RIO BLANCO

#

NAVAJO RIVER

10 0 10 Miles

N

Albuquerque’s 1997 Water Resource Management Strategy Included:

3

Non-Renewable100,000

200,000

300,000

Wat

er D

eman

d (a

cre-

feet

/yea

r)

Renewable

ReuseNewsources

Year1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

0

~100KAFY Surface WaterOwned by City

AquiferDrawdown

~50KAFY Renewable Groundwater

Motivation

Water Resources Management Plan, October 2007:

13 Policies were articulated

•A. Update and Maintain a Water Budget1. Interactive Model of the Water Budget2. Annual Review of the Water Budget3. Consistency of the Regional Water Budget

5

Background: Ground and Surface Water Resources

Aquifer can no longer sustainably supply water at needed levelsAdditional sources and management are required

Aquifer

Rio Grande

Water Table Wells

San Juan-Chama

6

Pumping Cone of Depression

as of 2002

Albuquerque Ground-Water Levels Show Huge Declines

Drinking Water Project

#

#

#

#

#

##

Coronado

Volcano Cliffs

College

DonBurton

Leyendecker

Surface WaterDiversion

I-40

I-25

Nor

th D

iver

sion

Cha

nnel

SA

N P

ED

RO

#

98TH ST

#

ATRISCO

#

PASEO DEL NORTE

#

HERMOSA

CharlesWells

#

SANANTONIO

MENAUL

MONTGOMERY

MARQUETTE

#

EDITH BLVD

CAMPBELL

ALV

AR

AD

O

COORS

MONTANO#

UNSER

CENTRAL

SEQUOIA

#

TIERRA PINTADA

#

110TH

LOU

ISIA

NA

WaterTreatment

Plant

Rio Grande

#

#

#

#

#

##

Coronado

Volcano Cliffs

College

DonBurton

Leyendecker

Surface WaterDiversion

I-40

I-25

Nor

th D

iver

sion

Cha

nnel

SA

N P

ED

RO

#

98TH ST

#

ATRISCO

#

PASEO DEL NORTE

#

HERMOSA

CharlesWells

#

SANANTONIO

MENAUL

MONTGOMERY

MARQUETTE

#

EDITH BLVD

CAMPBELL

ALV

AR

AD

O

COORS

MONTANO#

UNSER

CENTRAL

SEQUOIA

#

TIERRA PINTADA

#

110TH

LOU

ISIA

NA

WaterTreatment

Plant

Rio Grande

Raw Water Pipeline

Existing Reservoir#

Surface Water Transmission Line

Legend

Surface WaterDistribution System

0.9 0 0.9 1.8 2.70.45 Miles

³

SJC DWP

2008 – 367 (1%)2009 – 21,357 (21%)2010 – 42,803 (40%)2011 – 40,215 (38%)2012 – 43,208 (41%)– Full use, primary

source or supply

8

Groundwater Storage and Water Levels - Recent trends with DWP

9

Demand Curve

Demand and Ground Water Use

Demand and Ground Water Use

Surface Water Ideal UseSurface Water Ideal Use

Demand and Ground Water Use

Minimum Ground Water UseMinimum Ground Water Use

Surface Water Likely Use Under Full SupplySurface Water Likely Use Under Full Supply

Demand and Ground Water Use

Minimum Ground Water UseMinimum Ground Water Use

Surface Water Likely Use Under Full SupplySurface Water Likely Use Under Full Supply

Remaining Ground Water

Remaining Ground Water

Demand and Ground Water Use

Minimum Ground Water UseMinimum Ground Water Use

Remaining Ground Water

Remaining Ground Water

DroughtDrought

San Juan-Chama WTP Production

12

WRMS – Conservation

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Water Dem

and (acre‐feet/year)

Actual

Reuse

SurfaceWater

Groundwater

Conservation

Reuse strategies included:

Reuse/raw water sources– Industrial wastewater– San Juan-Chama– Municipal wastewater– Contaminated groundwater– Storm water

Current projects and supply– Industrial recycling ~1 KAFY– North I-25 non-potable project ~ 3KAFY– Southside effluent reuse ~2.4 KAFY

14

ASR Potential

Bear Canyon ASR

1,000 ac-ft successfully storedSubmitted permit for full-scale operation in November 2012Will be permitted for up to 3,000 ac-ft/yr

16

Large-Scale ASRNew injection wells at Water Treatment PlantDesign Analysis Report was just finalizedDesign underwayOSE permit to be submitted by the end of 2013

17

Webster Well No. 1 ASR Pilot Study

18

Why Dynamic Simulation?

Complex interrelationships– Supply / demand

Uncertainty– Hydrology– Population

Package in easy to use “dashboard” interface– Quick answers without

bogging down in details

19

Integrated Resource Planning

Examine multiple options for current and future needs– Asses the TOTAL impact of these options

Determine range of both supply and demand projections– Examine and address risk to supply

Evaluate water supply alternatives for cost and other factors – pipeline from AmarilloAnswer critical questions - Should we continue purchasing Pre-1907 water rights?

20

Purpose of Model

Evaluate potential need for and timing of additional suppliesEvaluate sustainability of current and future supplies– Potential additional conservation measures– Consider effect of climate change on surface flows and demand– How to use existing resources more efficiently

• Increase reuse• Reduce evaporative losses - ASR

Assist in short-term planning and report preparationAssist in San Juan-Chama and other accounting

21

Model Input Variables

Demand– Population– Per capita water usage or change in usage (conservation)

• At varying level of detail: system-wide down to user class

Supply– Supplies used: current and potential new– Priority of each supply– Constraints on each supply: permits, hydrologic availability, etc. – Hydrology and climate change parameters

22

The Model Interface

Separate demand and supply modules– Include pre-packaged scenarios for quick evaluation– Allow user-defined scenarios

23

What the Model Simulates

Demand– Monthly demand by user class– Wastewater availability

• Used for reuse and offsets

Supply– Priority-based allocation of

supplies to meet demand• Limited by permits, hydrology, etc.

– Water in storage, drought buffer24

Climate Variability Implementation

Example Results 1

Assume slower population growth– Less groundwater, but also less surface water

26

DWP

Groundwater

Wastewater ReuseNon‐Potable Project

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

201220142016 2018202020222024 202620282030 2032203420362038 204020422044 2046204820502052 2054205620582060

Acre‐Fee

t Per Year

Year

Supplies Meeting Demand, Reference Run

Non‐Potable Project

Native Rio Grande, Direct Diversion

New Storage  (ASR and/or New Res)

Brackish Groundwater

Wastewater Reuse

Inter‐Basin Transfer

Groundwater

DWP

DWP

Groundwater

Wastewater ReuseNon‐Potable Project

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

201220142016 2018202020222024 202620282030 2032203420362038 204020422044 2046204820502052 2054205620582060

Acre‐Fee

t Per Year

Year

Supplies Meeting Demand, Current Run

Non‐Potable Project

Native Rio Grande, Direct Diversion

New Storage  (ASR and/or New Res)

Brackish Groundwater

Wastewater Reuse

Inter‐Basin Transfer

Groundwater

DWP

Example Results 2

Increase reuse in year 2030– Decreased groundwater, increased drought buffer

27

‐600,000

‐500,000

‐400,000

‐300,000

‐200,000

‐100,000

0

100,000

200,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036 203820402042204420462048205020522054205620582060

Cumulative Ch

ange

 in Total Storage

 (af)

Acre‐Fee

t Per Year

Year

Sustainability SummaryComparison Against Reference

Consumptive Use: Outdoor Demand Consumptive Use: Transit Loss

Consumptive Use: Reservoir Evap Consumptive Use: ASR Loss

Available Return Flow Available Native Rights

Total Surface Water Rights Total Consumptive Use, Loss, and Available  Rights

Cumulative Change  in Total Storage  (Right Y‐Axis)

Plot Explanation: Solid lines are "current run." Dashed lines are "reference run" 

DWP

Groundwater

Wastewater Reuse

Non‐Potable Project

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

201220142016 2018202020222024 202620282030 2032203420362038 204020422044 2046204820502052 2054205620582060

Acre‐Fee

t Per Year

Year

Supplies Meeting Demand, Current Run

Non‐Potable Project

Native Rio Grande, Direct Diversion

New Storage  (ASR and/or New Res)

Brackish Groundwater

Wastewater Reuse

Inter‐Basin Transfer

Groundwater

DWP

Annual Operating Plan Updates

Input: hydrology and optional additional diversion limitationsOutput: plots and tables necessary for annual operating plan

28

Sample results –do not cite

Water Budget – Historical & Projected

Year Groundwater Surface Water (Drinking Water Project) Reuse

Historical2008 97% 1% 2%2009 77% 21% 2%2010 58% 40% 2%2011 60% 38% 2%2012 56% 41% 3%

Projected2013 50% 48% 2%2014 43% 54% 3%2015 50% 47% 3%2016 44% 53% 3%2017 44% 53% 3%

5-Year Planning Example

30

What is happening to the aquifer?

DWP Online

Next Steps

Add historic accounting module (currently underway)– Consolidate historical records– Adjust future projections to reflect observed conditions

Add cost module (in planning stages)– Allow cost-benefit analysis of demand/supply alternatives

Scientific Task Force Peer Review (currently underway)

32

Questions?

For more information contact:John M. Stomp III, PE

Chief Operating Officer(505) 768-3631JStomp@abcwua.org