November 17, 2009 @ E3 2009

Impact of Vehicle ElectrificationBeware: there be maths here

John R BryanProject Director, Rocky Mountain Secure Smart Grid Initiative

President, Secure Smart Grid Association

1 MW NaS BatteryV2G PHEV

Original SmartGridCity Team

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Some Assumptions

✤ Electric drive will be a standard (along with oil derivatives)

✤ We are only talking passenger cars

✤ Battery Prices don’t get more expensive

✤ 4 miles per 1 kWh in a sedan (2010 iMiEV gets 8 miles per kWh)

✤ Service cost per kWh is 11.55 cents (risen from 8.4 to 11.55 since 1995, or 2.3%)

✤ Links to Federal source data is linked in the shareable document

✤ I tend to present “eye charts”. Apologies in advance.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_3.html

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Battery Costs

For just Cells (Li-Ion)

✤ from $900 to $250 since 2002 to 2009

✤ 100 mile battery is $6,250 today

✤ 85% of USA trips are < 40 miles

✤ 40 mile pack is $2,500 today

✤ 400 mile pack is only $25,000 today

Lithium Ion Batteries forElectric Transportation:Costs and MarketsHaresh Kamath, EPRISeptember 22nd, 2009

$ / kwhr year / range 20 40 75 100 200 400

900

250

220

190

160

130

100

70

2002 $4,500.00 $9,000.00 $16,875.00 $22,500.00 $45,000.00 $90,000.00

2009 $1,250.00 $2,500.00 $4,687.50 $6,250.00 $12,500.00 $25,000.00

2010 $1,100.00 $2,200.00 $4,125.00 $5,500.00 $11,000.00 $22,000.00

2011 $950.00 $1,900.00 $3,562.50 $4,750.00 $9,500.00 $19,000.00

2012 $800.00 $1,600.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $8,000.00 $16,000.00

2013 $650.00 $1,300.00 $2,437.50 $3,250.00 $6,500.00 $13,000.00

2014 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,875.00 $2,500.00 $5,000.00 $10,000.00

2015 $350.00 $700.00 $1,312.50 $1,750.00 $3,500.00 $7,000.00

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How many EV?PG&E has:

✤ Energy services to 15 MM people:✤ 5.1 MM Electric accounts✤ 4.2 MM Natural Gas accounts

The United States has:✤ 142,120,902 Total Accounts or

✤ 27.86 times bigger✤ Low: 6,102,838 by 2020✤ Mid: 14,825,161 by 2020✤ High: 23,547,483 by 2020

✤ 2020 is 10 years away and✤ Low 600,000 EV per year✤ Mid 1,400,000 EV per year✤ High 2,400,000 EV per year

✤ US Sales of 10,752,000 in 2007✤ 5.5% to 21.8% annually

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/esr/table5.html

Andrew Tang, Sr Director, Smart Energy WebPacific Gas and Electric Company at

The Networked Grid, 11/04/2009

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What Size of Interconnect?✤ Nissan Leaf has 100 mile range✤ Tesla Roadster has 240 miles✤ Mitsubishi iMiEV has 100 miles

✤ Bigger the battery or range the bigger the plug✤ 6kW Dryer outlet seems right✤ $200 - $400 without digging✤ We’ll assume 6kW connection

Hours to ChargeHours to ChargeHours to Charge

Leaf Tesla iMiEV

volt

110

125

240

240

amp NEMA Type kW / kWh 24 56 16

15 5-15R Normal 1.65 14.55 33.94 9.70

30 TT-30 RV Standard 3.75 6.40 14.93 4.27

30 6-30R Dryer 7.2 3.33 7.78 2.22

50 6-50R Farm Equipment 12 2.00 4.67 1.33 5

Power and Energy

✤ Energy (kWh) per year✤ 92% of all commutes are < 35 miles✤ Of that 92%, average is 11.37 miles✤ 1,400,000 for 11.37 miles is- 3,980,789 kWh for about 1.5 hours✦ new utility sales of $459,781 per year✦ Cumulative

Commuter Results Margin of Error

Population Estimates

Sample Size

Average Miles

Total Miles Aggregate Miles

Distribution of Miles

1-5 miles

6-10 miles

11-15 miles

16-20 miles

21-25 miles

26-30 miles

31-35 miles

> 35 miles

Total

29% 2.32 30.2 578 3 90,600,000 90,600,000 8.39%

22% 2.06 22.3 431 8 178,400,000 269,000,000 16.51%

17% 1.90 17.2 314 13 223,600,000 492,600,000 20.69%

10% 1.42 10.1 205 18 181,800,000 674,400,000 16.83%

7% 1.19 7.0 146 23 161,000,000 835,400,000 14.90%

5% 1.10 5.1 96 28 142,800,000 978,200,000 13.22%

3% 0.80 3.1 60 33 102,300,000 1,080,500,000 9.47%

8% 1.34 7.9 148

100% 102.9 1,978 11.37 miles one waymiles one way

http://www.bts.gov/publications/omnistats/volume_03_issue_04/excel/figure_02.xls

✤ Power (kW) per year✤ 1,400,000 times 6 kW✤ 8.4 million kW✤ 11.74 new average coal plants per year✤ @ $1/W, it could cost $6k per EV

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/capacity/existingunitsbs2008.xls

Figure 2On a typical day, how many miles one-way do you travel from home to work?

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Distribution Impact

A 6 kW EV is at least one home and is 3+ homes in lower demand areas.

At $600 per new transformer, each uncontrolled EV will add new unexpected load to the grid causing disruptions to planning and service.

* Never could find data on number of homes per transformer. Trust me? (It’s 3 - 5 with a spare.)

Andrew Tang, Sr Director, Smart Energy WebPacific Gas and Electric Company at

The Networked Grid, 11/04/2009

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Andrew Tang, Sr Director, Smart Energy WebPacific Gas and Electric Company at

The Networked Grid, 11/04/2009

JRB: This is Smart Grid

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Capital Deferral

For a 22.74 mile total commute only EV with V2G (charged with coal):• $7,441 on fuel savings, $3,488 on generation, $682 on distribution, $3,112 on arbitrage, $247 in CO2• Total of $14,971 saved by the presence of V2G while using on 22% of a 100 mile battery• So who should own the battery if it can be used for the common good? •Maybe rate base the 100 mile, 25 kWh, 6kW, $6,250 battery? 9

Renewables Integration

✤ US sells 10M vehicles per year, so at 25% EV

✤ Average commute is 11.37 miles and would use 7,106 MWh / year

✤ 123,603 MWh of Wind and Solar in 2008

✤ EVs would use 29% of 2020 wind over 3 hours of charging at night

✤ IF at 100% EV, all wind and solar renewables have no impact on the grid

✤ with 100% Passenger Sales at Electric Vehicles = 20% wind generation

✤ http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html

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Conclusions

✤ EVs are coming✤ Price of Batteries is still dropping✤ 400 mile battery pack in sight

✤ Uncontrolled Charging is BAD✤ Increased peaking generation✤ Increased cost and outages

✤ Controlled Charging is GOOD✤ Decreased capital costs could lead to

lower $/kWh - higher utilization of fixed assets

✤ EVs only need to charge an average of 2.8 hours overnight and can be used to “store wind”

John R BryanProject Director, Rocky Mountain Secure Smart Grid Initiative

President, Secure Smart Grid Associationjohn@securesmartgrid.net

303-997-2824

How can our transportation system contribute to meeting energy standards and emission reduction goals?

Go full electric drive for commuting.

How soon will we have an electric vehicle system in place?

It’s there now. We only need utility systems to control the charging (deploy a smart grid).

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