jobs diagnostic methodological approach &...
TRANSCRIPT
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Jobs and Migration Core CourseTuesday, May 1
Dino Merotto ,
Michael Weber, &
Reyes Aterido
Jobs Diagnostic
Methodological Approach & Enquiry
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Jobs Diagnostic
Jobs Strategy
Jobs Policies and
Projects
Jobs Approach
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3
Jobs Strategies target key constraints identified in Job Diagnostics
Job Creation
Job Access
Job QualityPillars:
• Macro and Regulatory• Sectoral and Regional• Labor & Skills policies
• Net job creation
by existing firms
• Entry and growth
of new
enterprises
• Labor productivity
and earnings
• Access to social
insurance
• Working Conditions
• Incentives
• Information
• Skills
• Labor mobility
• … focus on women,
youth, bottom 40
More Better
Inclusive
Policies are organized around WDR MILES framework
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Internalizing Jobs Externalities
Social
Externalities
Labor
Shadow
Value
SRR >> PRRSocial Private
CROWD-IN PRIVATE
INVESTMENTS
CONDITIONAL ON
JOB CREATION OR
BETTER QUALITY
JOBS
RE-ASSESS MACRO/
REGULATORY &
LABOR POLICIES
Social Value of a Job > Value Added
Market Price of Labor > Shadow Price (Social
Opportunity Cost)
• Interventions to correct
Jobs Linked Externalities
(JLEs; subsidies/tax
incentives)
• VC Development
• Aggregator programs
• SME Development
• Entrepreneurship
• Economic Inclusion
• Fiscal/monetary policy
• Trade policy
• Labor regulations
• Labor taxation
• ALMPs
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Jobs Diagnostic
Jobs Strategies
Jobs Policies and Projects
• Explicit focus on jobs outcomes
• Better design of supply-side
(training and intermediation)
interventions
• Integration with demand-side
interventions to increase the
number of good jobs (formal or
informal)
• Internalize Jobs Externalities in
investment lending
From Jobs Diagnosis and Strategies to Policies and Projects
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Our Motivation
6
Economic Growth
Poverty / Inequality
Social Stability
JOBS
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Costs of Capital
Underlying
Returns to firms’
capital
Appropriation of
returns
Growth
diagnostic
(HRV)
FSAP
Financial
Assessment
ICA/Doing
Business
Trade/Export
Infrastructure
Skills
Traditional Diagnosis: Capital Focus
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Evidence from Jobs Diagnostics suggests simply maximizing growth is not enough
Employment Growth (y-axis) and Real GDP Growth (x-axis) for 5 year growth episodes in 169 countries from 1991-2015
% Real GDP Growth
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The problem is usually not the QUANTITY of jobs…
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…the problem is JOB QUALITY
Formal Wage
Employment,
15%
Informal
Wage
Employment,
20%
Self
Employment,
65%
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Source: Merotto, Weber & Aterido (2017), “Jobs Diagnostics Facts and Findings”
especially in LICs and LMICs JOB QUALITY is a problem
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Why is so much labor in bad jobs?
Three labor market paradigms
• Neoclassical theory – Workers earns Marginal Product of Labor
– Workers move between jobs until MPL is equated
• Classical theory (Ricardo, Marx)– Reserve army of labor
– Workers get a subsistence wage and capitalists get the rest of the product (exploitation)
• Structural dualism (Lewis)– Separation of traditional and modern sectors in developing economies
Which of these prevails is an empirical question
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“Structural dualism” is back in fashion
Arthur Lewis 1954
• Shifting labor from traditional to modern sector as key to development
• Multiple barriers negate relevance of the neoclassical paradigm in some cases; coordination gaps, mkt failures, market rigidities.
• Large gaps persist in the marginal productivity of labor between modern and traditional sectors
– The prevailing modern sector wage rate does not reflect the opportunity cost of labor
Robalino and Walker (2018)
Growth Commission: “The Growth Report” (2008) page 45 para 4.
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Macro trends
Labor Trends
and Transitions
Business Trends
Jobs
Diagnostic
Is the economy
creating
enough better
jobs?
Who creates jobs
in the economy
and how?
Are people
getting better
jobs? (Who?)
(Where?)
Jobs Diagnosis Approach
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How People Benefit from Job Opportunities in a Growing Economy
More people join the labor force & find work
– Self-employment, start-ups, firm entry and growth
– Transitions: into employment, school to work from care-giving to labor force
People get better at doing their existing job:
– Returns to labor assets improve (incl thru’ farming, self-employment)
– Labor productivity rises within occupations;
Labor moves from less to more productive jobs (economic transformation)
– Structural change:
– Migration / Urbanization
– Formalization: people move from capital-thin self-employment, to capital deep waged
employment in firms
– Selection between businesses
Higher productivity:
– raises earnings and
– creates demand for more goods and services.
Externalities from good jobs support development
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What is a Job Diagnostic?
Structured enquiry into jobs outcomes in relation to economic growth in
order to guide jobs strategies
• It covers:
1. Economy-wide macro analysis (Labor market demographics, GDP and employment)
2. Firm-level analysis (the “demand” for labor)
3. Household-level analysis (using Labor Force Surveys to analyze the supply of labor)
• Start with an overview of economic growth and jobs outcomes
• And a profile of where people work and who creates jobs
• Use structured enquiry based on:
a. “theory of change” that development happens through economic transformations;
b. economic theory (industrial organization theories, search and match labor theories) of
what we should expect to see of firms and workers in healthy product and labor
markets.
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When is it important to do a Job Diagnostic?
Good Growth / Bad Jobs Outcomes
Aggregate Demand and GDP are rising faster than the working age population, but:
• Employment is not rising (low elasticity of employment growth). And there
may be outmigration
• Productivity in main occupations is not rising
• Wages are not rising in line with employment and productivity
• People are not moving to take advantage of better jobs (due to misallocation
of factors: formal, spatial, sectoral)
• Dualism - There is labor market segmentation (the law of one price does not
hold) even though firms hire
• Employment is not rising for specific groups; youth, women, the bottom 40%,
minorities
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Jobs Diagnostic
How To:Conceptual Framework
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Jobs in Growth
Economic
Growth
Diffusion of
Technology
Productivity
Enhancing
Transitions
Innovate
AccumulateStructural Change
Productivity AcrossTechnical Change
Productivity Within
Invest
Increase
Skilled
Workforce
Human
Development
Working Age
PopulationLabor Force Participation
Employment
Labor mobility
Capital deepening
More Jobs Better Jobs
Human Capital
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Jobs and Strutural Change
Traditional
Sector
Modern Sector
Slow growth
Capital thin
Low savings
Low productivity
Low hours worked
Poor working conditions
Labor
mobility
Capital
accumulation
Innovation
Productivity
Growth
Generates
Savings
Better Jobs
Rapid growth
Capital deep
Economies of scale
Drives savings
Higher productivity
Better hours
Better working conditions
Skills training, on-the-job learning
Neoclassical Model holds
• Incentives to innovate
• Incentives to invest
Structural dualism holds
(Lewis model)
• Low productivity
coexists with high
• Law of one price does
not hold
Poor Quality Jobs
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Key Questions to Ask - Macro
• Is growth fast enough to create enough jobs for young entrants?
• Are jobs outcomes, and poverty improving?
• What is driving real GDP per capita? How does this compare with other
countries?
o Is labor accumulation rising?
▪ Working age,
▪ Participation,
▪ Employment rate
o Is employment rising with output?
o Is (labor) productivity rising?
▪ Within sectors
▪ From reallocation
▪ Across locations
▪ Across formal and informal sectors
o Is labor moving to more productive sectors (locations, occupations, firms)?
▪ Is employment urbanizing? (uses LFS)
▪ Is employment formalizing? (uses LFS)
• Are gaps in productivity narrowing
Key dimensions
• Aggregate Demand
• Productive Capacity
• Investment
• Demography
• Participation
• Employment
• Productivity
• Structural Change
• Urbanization
• Formality
• Country Characteristics
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Growth from a Worker‘s perspective:Labor MobilityLabor Income
Cohesion
Higher Individual and
Household Welfare
Higher Expected Earnings over Time
Better Physical and Psychological
Wellbeing
Social Cohesion
Social Identity
Social
Networks
Sense of Fairness
Better JobsMore JobsProductivity
Enhancing
Transitions
Move between
Occupations or Sectors
`Formalization’ move to
higher quality jobs
Urbanization
Migration
Selection: move to a
better firm
Productivity gains in
self-employment
Transition into work:
• School to work
• Out of unemployment
• Into workforce
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Skills Mismatch
Investment Climate
Workers respond to the demand for Labor
Working
Age
PopulationFirms
Expansion/contraction
of current or creation
of new establishments
VACANCIES
Labor Force
Participation
Type of occupation
JOB
SEEKERS
ENTREPRENEURS
EMPLOYMENT
AND EARNINGS
Search
efforts
New
firmsSource: Jobs Group
Labor MarketInformation
Social norms
Bargaining Power
Skills Mismatch
Aggregate Demand
Labor MarketRegulation
Social Insuranceand Labor taxation
Lack of Information
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Key questions on LM Supply Side (Workers)
• Who finds jobs and who does not?
• Do people change jobs?
• Across which dimensions and why?
• Are people fully employed? Underemployed? Do they have multiple jobs?
• Do jobs match the skills people have?
• Does education pay?
• Which factors affect employment & earnings?
• Are workers protected? Are their rights enforced?
• Do taxes and social insurance incentivize employment?
Key Dimensions
• Gender
• Age
• Education
• Rural/urban
• Region
• Sector
• Occupation
• Contract Type
• Public/private employment
• Income/consumption levels
• Country relevant groups
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The Demand Labor in the Formal Sector
Increase with productivity
Jobs
Move to more productive sectors
Move to more productive firms
Productivity and
Output Increase
Demand for
Products rises or
Prices rise (fall)
Competition spurs
firms to react
New Firms
Enter Efficient Firms Invest,
and Grow, Inefficient
Firms Shrink or Exit
Firms
Innovate
Wages
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Jobs and ProductivityEvidence-Based Policies
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Key Questions to Ask – LM Demand side (Firms)
• Are new firms entering?
• Do firms grow?• Which ones?
• Do micro firms survive and grow (or exit)?
• Are more productive sectors expanding?
• Are unproductive firms exiting?
• Is labor allocated to more productive firms?
• Are firms innovating?
• Are more competitive sectors more productive?
• Do productive firms pay more to their workers?
Key Dimensions
(composition and changes over
time):
• Size
• Age
• Sector
• Location
• Ownership
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Jobs and Migration Core CourseTuesday, May 1
Dino Merotto ,
Michael Weber, &
Reyes Aterido
Jobs Diagnostic
Facts & Findings
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Jobs Diagnostic Facts & Findings:
Macro
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Youthful Africa
South Asia Entering Demographic
Transition
A country’s demography fundamentally frames its jobs challenges
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Productivity Growth is associated with GDP Growth and GDP Growth creates jobs on average.
31
Source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2017/02/02/jobs-macro-data-dashboard
But productivity growth is accompanied by less job creation
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Economic transformation is fastest in low income countries, where reallocation of labor from low to higher productivity sectors explains most of the total productivity growth on average
32
It happens fastest in LICs, and growth is faster, when agricultural productivity is growing
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Agriculture sheds jobs as productivity risesbut not when productivity falls
33
(Includes LICs, LMICs, UMICs)
This is true for high, low and negative overall GDP growth
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Economic transformation in LICs typically involves more labor movement into services than into industry
34
Example Zambia
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And in many growth episodes economic transformation out of agriculture is associated with declining/stagnant average labor productivity in receiving sectors
35
Example South Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
Agriculture Industry Services etc.
millio
n c
on
sta
nt
2005 U
SD
per
1000
peo
ple
Value Added per Worker by SectorSouth Africa 2000-2014
2000
2004
2008
2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Agriculture Industry Services etc.
1000 p
eo
ple
Total Employment by SectorSouth Africa 2000-2014)
2000
2004
2008
2014
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Urbanization is correlated with per capita GDP Growth in the share of the urban population is fastest in low income countries, where it is fastest outside of the largest city
36
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Jobs Diagnostic
Facts & Findings: LM
Supply (Workers)
Uses most recent Labor data for 141 countries (fewer countries where data exclude the use of the survey, but typically over 130)
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Labor Force Participation rates are highest in low income countries (LICs), lower for middle income countries (MICs) and then higher again for Higher Income Countries (HICs)
38
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Labor Force Participation rates are highest in low income countries (LICs), lower for middle income countries (MICs) and then higher again for Higher Income Countries (HICs)
39
This result is driven by females and youth
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Employment patterns vary greatly over GDP per capita – more developed countries have higher shares of wage work
40
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Employment patterns vary greatly over GDP per capita – more developed countries have higher shares of wage work
41
Richer countries have more rural waged employmentAnd more waged employment for women
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Poorer countries feature high underemployment not unemployment
42
…but also more excessive work hours
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Informal employment is lower in MICs than LICs but is persistently high across countries covered.
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Public sector employment accounts for a relatively large share of formal employment in Low Income Countries.
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So Who finds a Good Job? Labor Market Status evolves differently over the Life Cycle for Men and Women
Men Women
Bra
zil
Mex
ico
Men Women
• Out of Labor Force
• Unemployed
• Unpaid (family) workers
• Self-employed
• Employer
• Informal Wage Employee
• Formal Wage Employee
Work status:
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Education also affects the Evolution of Labor Market Status with Age
Bra
zil
• Out of Labor Force
• Unemployed
• Unpaid (family) workers
• Self-employed
• Employer
• Informal Wage Employee
• Formal Wage Employee
Work status:
No Education Primary Education
Secondary education Tertiary education
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Jobs Outcomes improve with Education and Urbanization
Nepal LFS 2008 - Working age population (15-64) with a non-missing and nonzero wage. Mean wages are reported as weighted.
Kathmandu
Other urban
Rural-Nonagr
Rural-Agr
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
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Employment in Services increases as Countries develop
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Jobs Diagnostic Facts &
Findings: LM Demand
(Firms)
This section uses representative business census and survey data for a selection of LICs and MICs undertaking Jobs Diagnostics.
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Firm Level analysis in JD refers only to the formal non-agricultural
50
• Formal private sector (PS) employs only a small portion of the working age population
• BUT PS drives both productivity and employment growth
• It is responsible for most value added and growth
• Jobs in the PS provide better wages, more stability and opportunities for skill development and human capital formation
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Most firms are micro. Large firms employ more people
Micro firms comprise between 50 and 95 percent of all firms, but over 40
percent of employment in the formal private sector is in large firms. There is
also large concentration of workers in few very large firms (the top 1% of
largest firms hold more than one third of the jobs in the formal private sector
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Micro firms can persist over time and are unlikely to expand employment.
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Large firms do not necessarily have higher labor productivity than small firms
53
Lack of robust correlation between firm’s size and firm’s productivity undermines
the existence of economies of scale or a selection process where more productive
firms grow
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Large firms are likely to pay higher wages
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Young firms typically hold 10 to 50 percent of jobs
Employment growth of young firms is faster and slows as firms age
New and young firms are a primary source of net job creation.
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-20
00
-10
00
0
10
00
20
00
tota
l (0
00
)
20
05
2006
2007
200
8
200
9
20
10
20
11
2012
year
creation destruction
net
Job Flows (000)
-10
00
-50
0
0
50
01
00
0
tota
l (0
00
)
20
05
2006
2007
200
8
200
9
20
10
20
11
2012
year
JC by incumbents JC by entry
JD by incumbents JD by exit
Net JC by incumbents
Incumbents-entering-exiting
Job Flows (000)
Churning is high; entrants are very important for job creation
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The more productive the firm, higher the wages
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Specific evidence shows that labor is allocated to more productive firms but productivity gains is accompanied by job losses
The between term (green), positive in all countries, shows that firms with above
average productivity are expanding their employment share in the economy. The
cross term (grey), negative for all countries, shows that increasing productivity
decreased labor share.
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World Bank Group
Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
USA