job search success in local labour markets ronald w. mcquaid, malcolm greig and john adams esrc...

Job Search Success in Local Labour Markets

Ronald W. McQuaid, Malcolm Greig and John Adams

ESRC Seminar, Edinburgh, 6-8 January 2004

Employment Research InstituteNapier University

Labour Market Policies

• 1980s - 1990s progressive tightening of policy

• ‘active’ and ‘deterrent’ policies

• demand-side

• supply-side emphasise

• increasing targeting of certain groups

• inappropriate targeting of active labour market policies can

lead to inefficiencies of displacement, deadweight and

substitution


New Deal Targets

• young (aged 18-24)

• long-term unemployed

• lone parents

• disabled people

• the unemployed aged fifty plus

• partners of unemployed people

• disadvantaged communities (for example: Employment

Action Zones, Priority Partnership Areas, Social Inclusion

Partnerships, Single Regeneration Budget areas)


Study

• demand-side (126 firms)

• supply-side

• 306 interviews, 169 follow through

• 70 (41%) found a job and 99 (59%) did not

• profiling the success of different groups in finding

employment

• explaining the success


Attributes

• Socio-demographic variables

• Human capital variables

• Financial variables

• Job search variables

• Spatial variables

• Residential variables


Model

• factor analysis in order to develop a multi-dimensional profile

of (un)successful job seekers

• Factors were extracted using Principal Component Analysis

with Varimax rotation

• The factor scores (values with respect to each observation

for each factor identified) were then analysed using binary

logistic regression analysis taking employment success as

the dependent variable, measured by the variable

FOUNDAJOB


Factor1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5

MARRIED (+)

BGATE (+)

PTPT (+) QUALITY (+)

MANUAL (+)

DEPS (+) BUS79 (-) PTTEMP (+)

DEPRIV (-) EDQUAL (-)

AGE (+) ACCESS (+)

PRESSTIME (+)

WMTIME (+)

PROFQUAL (+)

PRESSTIME (-)

AOSTIME (+)

RESWAG (+)

EATIME (+)

TOTINC (+)

PRTRANS (+)

OWNEROCC (+)

LIVFAM (-)

Table I: Factor Components

Factor 6 Factor 7 Factor 8 Factor 9

CTENANT (+) FEMALE (-)

AGE (+)

PTPT (+)

OWNEROCC (-) TTWTIME (+) LENU (+)

JCTIME (+)

DEPRIV (+)

LIVFAM (-)

Factor Coefficient estimate

F1 ‘family characteristics’

0.308*

F2 ‘accessible, non-metropolitan’

0.355**

F3 ‘flexible’ 0.022

F4 ‘motivated’ 2.009

F5 ‘unskilled’ 0.247

F6 ‘socially excluded 0.029

F7 ‘male commuter’ 0.242

F8 ‘older long-term unemployed’

-0.699***

F9 ‘willing to work part-time’

0.179

Constant -0.491***

*** Significant at 1% level ** significant at 5% level *significant at 10% level

Table II: Estimated Regression Equation Coefficients for Employment Success

Conclusions

• Factor 1 is significantly positively correlated with finding a

job. This is interpreted as ‘family’.

• Factor 2 is significantly positively associated with finding a

job - ‘accessible, non-metropolitan’

• most significant set of attributes (Factor 8) is interpreted as

‘older, long-term unemployed’ (and who unsurprisingly does

not live with their parents), which is negatively associated

with finding a job

• focus of New Deal 50+ on the older, long-term unemployed is

supported

• Next phase


DEFINITION OF VARIABLESSocio-demographic variablesFEMALE = 1 if the job seeker is female, 0 if maleMARRIED = 1 if the job seeker is married, 0 otherwiseDEPS = 1 if the job seeker has dependent children, 0 otherwiseAGE = age of job seeker in yearsLONEPAR= 1 if the job seeker is a lone parent Human capital variablesMANUAL = 1 if job seeker was formerly employed in a manual occupation, 0 otherwiseEDQUAL = level of academic qualifications from 0 (none) to 7 (higher degree)PROFQUAL = level of professional/vocational qualifications from 0 (none) to 3 (advanced)LENU = number of weeks that job seeker has been unemployedQUALITY = self-perceived quality index of transferable skills Financial variablesRESWAG = minimum weekly wage job seeker is willing to work forTOTINC = monthly non-earned income

Job search variablesN_APPS = total number of applications made by job seeker in the 6 months prior to interviewJCTIME = average weekly time (hours) spent searching in JobcentresPRESSTIME= average weekly time (hours) spent searching in newspapersWMTIME= average weekly time (hours) spent searching through word of mouthAOSTIME= average weekly time (hours) spent on speculative job applicationsEATIME= average weekly time (hours) spent searching through agenciesPTPT = prepared to accept part-time employmentPTTEMP = prepared to accept temporary employment(time spent searching through employment agencies omitted due to low usage) Spatial variablesBGATE= 1 if job seeker resident in Bathgate TTWA, 0 if Edinburgh TTWA TTWTIME = job seeker’s maximum stated daily travel to work time (minutes)BUS79 = number of buses between job seeker’s residence and CBD from 7am to 9amACCESS = accessibility index measuring travel time from job seeker’s residence to major centres of employmentPRTRANS = 1 if job seeker has access to private transport, 0 otherwise Residential variablesDEPRIV = measure of local postcode area social deprivation 0 (low) to 3 (high)CTENANT = 1 if job seeker is a council tenant, 0 otherwise*OWNEROCC = 1 if job seeker is an owner occupier, 0 otherwise*LIVFAM = 1 if job seeker lives with parents, 0 otherwise**(Base class is private tenant)

job search success in local labour markets ronald w. mcquaid, malcolm greig and john adams esrc...

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