jll apartment outlook survey 2012

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  • 8/3/2019 JLL Apartment Outlook Survey 2012

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    Multifamily is, and will remain, the belle of the ball in thecommercial real estate sector in the year ahead, accordingto the respondents of our Apartments Outlook 2012 Survey.Completed by more than 150 private investors, real estatebrokers, developers, REIT and institutional investors at theRealShare APARTMENTS conference this fall, the surveytapped into practitioners beliefs on cap rates, competition andthe future health of the capital markets in this high-prole sector

    of the market. Michael Berman, the CEO of CW Capital, saysthe strength of the market today is no mirageits based onsolid fundamentals.

    I think its clear that with homeownership coming down, therental space is probably the single strongest asset class in theUnited States right now, said Berman. Were not seeing thehigh leverage we did in the past few years, so I think that willmoderate what might otherwise look like a bubble.

    Hear more about Bermans thoughts here:www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgikHLW45o0

    The survey asked respondents how much rental growth theywere projecting for their 2012 acquisition underwriting. A

    majority of respondents (41 percent) said rents would rise by 13percent, while slightly less (37 percent) were more optimisticquoting rental growth of 35 percent. Just 12 percent ofrespondents predicted more than ve percent rental growth.

    I think its going to be fairly quiet. Weve had some instability inthe market, but I think its going to change a little bit, then catchup maybe 35 percent over the next year and a half, said DianeMiramontes, Executive Vice President of Jones Lang LaSallesmultifamily Capital Markets business. Right now were dealinga lot with the shadow market and thats affecting what kind ofgrowth we can project because theres strong competition inthose markets.

    More from Miramontes here:www.youtube.com/watch?v=idVpp0Squ5o

    Steven Ludwig of Coastline Capital Partners added, We tendto use a straight-line rental growth, depending upon the marketwere intypically between 23 percent because we try to erron the conservative side so that we can, as a smart investor,

    always underpromise and overdeliver. However, we are noticingon the management side in really well-located properties here inSouthern California rents are pushing anywhere between 310percent, which were really excited about.

    Listen to Ludwigs additional thoughts here:www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylLMGjGlY4c

    Top cities

    In other survey news, respondents picked Los Angeles, SanFrancisco, Dallas, San Diego and Phoenix as the top ve cities

    Apartments Outlook2012 Survey

    December 2011

    Apartments outlook 2012 survey: Multifamily makes senseRespondents predict continued interest and strong fundamentals in the year ahead

    Right now were dealing a lot with the

    shadow market and thats affecting what

    kind of growth we can project becausetheres strong competition in those markets.

    Diane Miramonte

    Real value in a changing world

    I think its clear that with homeownership

    coming down, the rental space is probably

    the single strongest asset class in the

    United States right now. Michael Berman

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgikHLW45o0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idVpp0Squ5ohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylLMGjGlY4chttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylLMGjGlY4chttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idVpp0Squ5ohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgikHLW45o0
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    Apartments outlook 2012 surveyPage 2

    in which they were most likely to invest in the year ahead. Onthe sell side, respondents agged Las Vegas, Los Angeles,

    Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix as primedisposition regions.

    Multifamily investors: Local to global competition

    As the most attractive investment sector, multifamily isgaining new competitive pressure. Respondents say theirmain competition is private investors (46 percent), followed by

    institutional investors at just 23 percent. Coming in with barely ablip on the radar is competition from developers (4 percent) andforeign investors (3 percent). Still, those foreign investors aremaking their inuence felt. Investors from Asia lead the pack,

    according to respondents. Nearly half (47 percent) say Asianinvestors make up the majority of interest in U.S. multifamily,while the Middle East (28 percent) and Canada (26 percent) arealso contenders. Another 28 percent also say theyre not seeingany foreign investment at this point.

    Multifamily investment criteria

    In terms of top-three investment criteria, more than two-thirds ofrespondents (67 percent) picked value-add properties as theirtop reason for choosing a certain property. That was followedup by more than half of respondents (52 percent) choosing atransit-oriented location and 45 percent choosing a suburban/garden-style location.1

    Cap rates

    With cap rates hovering around four percent in the mostcompetitive markets, many are wondering if the apartment

    sector is in a bubbleand getting ready to burst. A majority ofsurvey respondents, 34 percent agreed, conceding the numbersare already over exuberant. Still, 22 percent say the markethasnt hit the bubble stage yet, while another 20 percent see thattime coming in 2012.

    The survey also asked respondents where they anticipated

    multifamily cap rates trending in 2012 for the most competitivemarkets. A majority of respondents (39 percent) said were in aholding pattern, with cap rates staying stable, while another 21percent say theyll decrease less than 50 basis points. Another15 percent felt cap rates will decrease more than 50 basispoints, while the same amount (15 percent) say cap rates willrise by less than 50 basis points.

    What is changing is investors appetite for yield. With interestrates hovering around 4 percentrespondents were asked topeg the breaking point for them to leave the market as cap ratesfall. Half of all respondents (50 percent) said that number fallsbetween 5 and 6 percent, while another 26 percent say if caprates fall to between four and ve, theyre out. Just 14 percent

    say cap rates below 4 percent is the only way theyll leave themarket.

    Construction

    55 percent of the survey respondents overwhelmingly say theconstruction pipeline has opened once again due to an increasein net operating incomes, while an equally impressive 49 percentsay its due to the availability of nancing. However, 42 percent

    of respondents say the increase in development is directly dueto developers lowering their return thresholds.2

    With increased development, developers are expectingincreased costs, at least when it comes to both mid-level andhigh-rise multifamily properties. Nearly two-thirds of surveyrespondents (63 percent) say the cost of construction formid-rise properties rose by 5 percent this year over last, whileanother 29 percent say that number fell by ve percent, and

    an equal number (25 percent) say the cost dropped by more

    1 Numbers equal more than 100 percent due to respondents ability to check multiple answers2 Numbers equal more than 100 percent due to respondents ability to check multiple answers

    3 Numbers equal more than 100 percent due to respondents ability to check multiple an

    50%

    26%

    14%10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Cap rates between 5% to6%

    Cap rates between 4% to5%

    Cap rates under 4% Ill buy any multifamilyproduct I can get my

    hands on

    Los Angeles, 15%

    San Francisco,9%

    Dallas, 8%

    San Diego, 8%

    Phoenix, 7%

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    Apartments outlook 2012 surveyPage 3

    than ve percent. For high rises, the numbers are even more

    substantial. Nearly 70 percent of respondents say the cost of high-rise construction today versus a year ago has now risen by morethan ve percent, while 38 percent say that number fell by ve

    percent and another 29 percent say that number fell by more thanve percent. Garden-style development is the exception, however,

    with 61 percent of respondents saying the cost of construction

    today remains at, while 46 percent say the cost has fallen bymore than ve percent, and another 33 percent say that number

    has fallen by just ve percent.3

    Rent versus own

    Our survey asked respondents when the propensity of rentingversus owning would likely shift back to home ownership. Amajority of respondents (44 percent) say that wont happen untilat least 2015 or later, while another 32 percent say the market willreach a balance in 2013with a shift toward buying in 2013. Just15 percent say that market balance comes next year, with a shift

    to buy in 2013.

    We expect apartment investment to maintain very high activityin 2012, continuing the strong levels weve experienced in 2011,concludes Jubeen Vaghe, Managing Director and leader of

    Jones Lang LaSalles Multifamily Investment Sales team. Theavailability of debt capital will remain plentiful, with continuedinterest from the government agencies, as well as life companies.This survey proves that the year ahead will bring a great dealof competitive moves in the sector as those with the greatestappetite take the highest risk.

    Jones Lang LaSalles multifamily team has closed $2.7 billion intransactions so far in 2011, and has nearly $2 billion of proper tiescurrently on the market for its client base.

    About Jones Lang LaSalle

    Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets is a full-service globalprovider of capital solutions for real estate investors andoccupiers. The rms in-depth local market and global

    investor knowledge delivers the best-in-class solutions forclientswhether a sale, nancing, repositioning, advisory or

    recapitalization execution. In 2010 alone, Jones Lang LaSalleCapital Markets completed $43 billion in investment sale and debtand equity transactions globally. The rms dealmakers completed

    $33 billion in global investment sales and buy-side transactions,equating to nearly $140 million of investment trades completedevery working day around the globe. In the United States, Jones

    Lang LaSalle grew its ofce broker volumes by 257 percent in

    2010 and is quickly gaining market share across all propertytypes. The rms Capital Markets team comprises approximately

    800 specialists, operating in 185 major markets worldwide.

    Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a nancial and professional

    services rm specializing in real estate. The rm offers integrated

    services delivered by expert teams worldwide to clients seekingincreased value by owning, occupying or investing in real estate.With 2010 global revenue of more than $2.9 billion, Jones LangLaSalle serves clients in 60 countries from more than 1,000locations worldwide, including 185 corporate ofces. The rm is

    an industry leader in property and corporate facility managementservices, with a portfolio of approximately 1.8 billion square feetworldwide. LaSalle Investment Management, the companysinvestment management business, is one of the worlds largestand most diverse in real estate with more than $47.9 billion ofassets under management. For further information, please visitour website, www.joneslanglasalle.com.

    We expect apartment investment to maintainvery high activity in 2012, continuing the

    strong levels weve experienced in 2011.

    Jubeen Vaghef