jim depiante
TRANSCRIPT
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WatsonThe IBM Jeopardy! Challenge
Jim De Piante, PMPExecutive Project Manager
IBM Research© 2011 IBM
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Video clip 1
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WatsonThe IBM Jeopardy! Challenge
Jim De Piante, PMPExecutive Project Manager
IBM Research
© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 4
Watson wins
February 16, 2011
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© 2011 IBM 5
At a restaurant in upstate New York
Charles Lickel
Ken Jennings
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© 2011 IBM 6
Deep Blue
May 11, 1997
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© 2011 IBM 7
The next Grand Challenge
• Difficult problem• Broader audience• Scientific community• Relevant to clients
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© 2011 IBM 8
IBM Research pursues the idea
Paul Horn
Dave Ferrucci
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© 2011 IBM 9
What they were in for
2 hours 3 seconds
Wrong 66% Right 90%
Simple questions Quirky clues
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© 2011 IBM 10
Dave Ferrucci meets Harry Friedman
Harry Friedman
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© 2011 IBM 11
Early sparring match
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© 2011 IBM 12
Sparring matches with champions
Todd Crain
Former Jeopardy! champions
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Video clip 2
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© 2011 IBM 14
Watson’s record
Ken Jennings Brad Rutter
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© 2011 IBM 15
Watson was a contender
Press conference after the practice match
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© 2011 IBM 16
Show time
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© 2011 IBM 17
All there to witness…
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© 2011 IBM 18
End of round 1
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© 2011 IBM 19
The result
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© 2011 IBM 20
Watson
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WatsonThe role of Project
Management© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM
• Scope• Schedule• Budget• Risk• Stakeholders• Communications• Change• Procurement• Integration
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Scope© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 24
Scope Win on Jeopardy!• Against the best of the best• In early 2011
Radically new technology• Architecture• Software
HW configuration Marketing / Communications Scientific research• 55 sparring matches• Research papers
Asset to commercialize
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© 2011 IBM 25
Unlike any other project One of a kind• Unprecedented• No “methodology”• SW development, but not
Division of responsibilities• Principal Investigator• Project Managers
IBM infrastructure not suited Creative use of PM techniques• Flexibility• Non-rigorous
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© 2011 IBM 26
Principal Investigator Deep QA software• Architecture• Algorithms • Development• Integration
Watson hardware• Configuration• Scale-out• Optimization
Front end• Game strategy• Betting• Watson’s voice• Game state
David Ferrucci, PhD
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© 2011 IBM 27
Project Managers1. Project communications2. Procurement3. Stakeholder management4. Elements of the budget5. Milestone management6. Dependencies7. Risk management8. Sparring matches9. Contestant management10. Negotiations11. Change management12. Hardware build-out13. Move to Hollywood14. The set at IBM Research15. Integration of all elements
David Shepler, PMP
Jim De Piante, PMP
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Schedule© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 29
One unyielding deadline Early 2011 Public commitment IBM Research: Grand Challenge Hollywood: Ratings
Jeopardy! Challenge …..……|………………………|……..
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© 2011 IBM 30
Shelf life of clues
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Budget© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 32
Budget Severely constrained• Immutable deadline• Fixed scope• Financial pressures
Managed at several levels Principal Investigator• Development resources• Department travel
Project Managers• Hardware• Other travel• Procurement
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Risk© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 34
Key risks Technology Reputation (brand) Schedule Perceptions• Might seem too easy• If Watson wins• If Watson loses• HAL-like associations
Failure• Show might not air• Watson could lose
Move Watson to Hollywood
Rep. Holt beats Watson?
Not!
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© 2011 IBM 35
Perceptions Negative perceptions• Jeopardy! (Sony)• IBM
Risk analysis• Probability: high• Effect: high• Position: avoid
Actions• Avatar• Voice• Publicity
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© 2011 IBM 36
Move to Hollywood Watson damaged in transit• Probability: low• Effect: devastating• Position: mitigate
Risk analysis• Likelihood of accident• Likelihood of damage
Actions considered• Second system• Fly/drive• Choice of supplier
Action: change approach
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Stakeholders© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 38
Stakeholder groups IBM Research Sony Pictures Ogilvy Talent IBM internal• Marketing• Legal• Procurement• Industrial Design• Systems Technology Group
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© 2011 IBM 39
1 million miles
Hollywood
Yorktown Heights
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© 2011 IBM 40
IBM Research Creative culture Desire for flexibility Not used to PM approach Worried about perceptions Protective of brand Communication style Contracts Science IBM
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© 2011 IBM 41
Sony Pictures Creative culture Desire for flexibility Not used to PM approach Worried about perceptions Protective of brand Communication style Contracts Entertainment Hollywood
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© 2011 IBM 42
What they had in common Creative culture Desire for flexibility Not used to PM approach Worried about perceptions Protective of brand
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© 2011 IBM 43
Where they were different Motives for the project• Science and product revenue• Entertainment and ad revenue
Contracts Culture Communications• Internally• Externally
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Communications© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 45
Communications approach Speak several languages• IBM• IBM Research• Hollywood• Legal• Procurement• Marketing• IP Law
Use various means Update frequently
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Change© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 47
Approach to change Facilitate change• Know alternatives• Know costs
Isolate change• System: PI• Everything else: PMs
Two examples• Watson’s hand• Match venue
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© 2011 IBM 48
The hand of Watson Plan• Watson receives clue• Watson buzzes electronically
Rationale for change• Avoid perception problems• Level playing field
Create mechanical hand• IBM Research facilities• Working prototype in 3 weeks
New risk• Introduced slight delay• Possibly lose the buzz
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© 2011 IBM 49
Change of venue Plan• Watson goes to Hollywood• Wheel-of-Fortune set
Rationale for change• Avoid perception problems• On IBM Research turf
Create full Jeopardy! set• Huge undertaking• Watson stays in Yorktown Heights• Jeopardy! comes to IBM Research
Opportunities seized• Reduced risk of the move• Showcase IBM Research facility
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Procurement© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 51
Procurement Key PM focus Highly specialized needs Sole source Key areas• Talent• Compliance• Contestants
Outside the IBM norm• Processes• Skills
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© 2011 IBM 52
Talent Challenge• Role of Alex Trebek • Short lead time
New world for IBM• Specification• Actor’s guild
Solution• Sole source• Known quantity
Todd Allen Crain
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© 2011 IBM 53
Compliance and integrity Challenge• Game-show compliance• Challenge integrity
New world for IBM• Specification• Making payments
Solution• Sole source• Jeopardy’s supplier
Alex Hendrie
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© 2011 IBM 54
Sparring contestants Challenge• Former Jeopardy! contestants• Manage the logistics• Tight scheduling
Solution• Considered “cattle call”• Solicit through Jeopardy!• Hire as consultants
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© 2011 IBM 55
Contestant management Challenge• Find the right skills• Outsource completely
Solution• Sole source• Existing approach• Existing supplier• Explicit specification• Detailed process definition• Supplier web site• Supplier travel agency• Supplier disbursement• Extreme empowerment
Josiane Emorine and Alex Trebek
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Integration© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 57
Integration Crisp boundaries Communication Blended approach• Co-location• Virtual
Tight linkages• Researchers• Sony Pictures
Milestone driven• Clear goals• Clear deadlines
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WatsonWhat next for ?
© 2011 IBM
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© 2011 IBM 59
Does Watson think?
“Does a submarine swim?”
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© 2011 IBM 60
What does Watson do?
Deep
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© 2011 IBM 61
The future
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© 2011 IBM 62
Nuance
ARMONK, NY and BURLINGTON, MA – 17 Feb 2011IBM and Nuance Communications today announced a
research agreement to explore, develop and commercialize the Watson computing system's advanced
analytics capabilities in the healthcare industry.
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© 2011 IBM 63
WellPoint
INDIANAPOLIS and ARMONK, NY – 12 Sep 2011 WellPoint, Inc. (NYSE: WLP), and IBM (NYSE: IBM) announced an agreement today to create the first
commercial applications of the IBM Watson technology.
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WatsonThe IBM Jeopardy! Challenge
Jim De Piante, PMPExecutive Project Manager
IBM Research© 2011 IBM