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Book Review

Jevons Paradox or Not?The Myth of Resource Efficiency: The Jevons Paradox, by John M.Polimeni, Kozo Mayumi, Mario Giampietro and Blake Alcott.London: Earthscan, 2009, 184 pp., ISBN 978-1-84407-813-4,$39.95, Paperback.

Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption, edited by HoraceHerring and Steve Sorrell. Houndsmills, UK: Palgrave Macmil-lan, 2009, 266 pp., ISBN 0-2300-0800-3, $95.00, Hardcover.

These two books on the rebound effect argue for the impor-tance of the rebound effect and, more specifically, support thehypothesis that increased energy efficiency leads to increased,not decreased, energy use through macroeconomic effects. Thishypothesis is also known as the Jevons paradox, after a 19th-century British economist who, in his book The Coal Question,predicted an increased use of coal as a result of technical ad-vances and hence more efficient coal use (Jevons 1866). Lowercosts and more versatile technology would lead to many newapplications where coal had previously not been utilized, Jevonsargued, so Britain would run out of coal. He was right in thatcoal use would rise.

In my own review of the rebound effect for a special issue onconsumption in this journal (Hertwich 2005), I could not findproof for so-called economy-wide or macro rebound effects, butthere was some evidence in support and no basis for rejectingthe hypothesis. I was hence very curious about new evidencethat these books might offer in support of the Jevons paradox.

The 12 chapters in the book edited by Horace Herring andSteve Sorrell cover direct rebound effects, economy-wide re-bound effects, and implications for sustainable consumptionand wider policy. Sorrell’s review of direct rebound effects in-dicates that these are commonly in the range of 10% to 30%.This means the additional use of a more energy efficient serviceas a result of efficiency gains reduces 10% to 30% of the sav-ings due to the technical energy efficiency gain. The chapterprovides a valuable confirmation of earlier findings and con-tains some interesting discussions of methodological problemswith some studies. The econometric study of German car travelin chapter 3 is difficult to follow, and it is not clear to whatdegree the high rebound effect identified is a result of the as-sumption that fuel expenditures constitute the only cost of cardriving.

The different authors writing about the economy-wide re-bound effect take up quite a range of issues. Grant Allen and col-leagues present a computational economic equilibrium modelfor the UK and calculate economy-wide rebound effects to bein the range of 14% to 55%. Harry Saunders presents a dis-

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cussion of different options to specify technology in economicmodels, following his debates with Richard Howarth (Howarth1997) about the macroeconomic model form to investigate theJevons paradox (see chapter 7). Robert Ayres and BenjaminWarr present a short discussion of the potential implications oftheir own research on economic growth (Ayres and Warr 2005)for the rebound effect. They argue that energy efficiency maybe one of the key causes for increased economic growth, whichin turn has resulted in increased energy use. Further, they areconcerned about the use of a carbon tax as a climate policy,as this would lead to reduced economic growth. In the particu-lar production function used by Ayres and Warr, the marginalproductivity of energy (physical work) is much larger than theenergy cost, so I do not see how a carbon tax would necessarilyhave a substantial impact on growth. A formal justification ofthis argument is lacking.

In the most interesting chapter of the book, Sorrell reviewscontemporary arguments and evidence for the Jevons paradox,focusing on the work of Len Brooks, Sam Schurr, and HarrySaunders. He draws the connection from the rebound effect tothe hypothesis of ecological economists such as Cutler Cleve-land, Robert Kaufmann and David Stern that the increasingavailability of high-quality energy sources was a driving forcefor economic growth. Sorrell demonstrates a thorough under-standing of the underlying theories and empirical evidence andoffers critical evaluation of various arguments. Given his over-all support of the Jevons paradox, it is interesting to note thefollowing acknowledgement.

[The paradox] implies that all economically justified energy-efficiency improvements will increase energy consumptionabove where it would be without those improvements. Sincethis is a counterintuitive claim for many people, it requiresstrong supporting evidence if it is to gain widespread accep-tance. The main conclusion from this chapter is that suchevidence does not yet exist. The theoretical and empiricalevidence cited in favor of the postulate contains a number ofweaknesses and inconsistencies and most is only indirectlyrelevant for the rebound effect (p. 156).

The third section of the book addresses sustainable consump-tion in light of the rebound effect. Jørgen Nørgard argues for asteady-state economy. Mikko Jalas investigates the time-use as-pects connected to the rebound. Herring argues that individualvoluntary sufficiency or simplicity has no effect, because it alsoleads to rebound effects, making resources cheaper and allowingothers to consume them. Moreover, economic policies focus onpromoting growth, making individual efforts ineffective.

The Myth of Resource Efficiency consists of three chaptersproviding a historical treatment, theoretical evolutionary per-spective, and empirical evidence, written by Blake Alcott,

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Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi, and John M. Polimeni,respectively.

Blake Alcott provides a fascinating historical account of thethinking about productivity and resource efficiency of the clas-sical economists, starting with Adam Smith, Thomas RobertMalthus, and David Ricardo. He draws parallels between la-bor, land, and energy. The discussion of classical economistsconcludes that productivity increases increase production vol-ume. Production increases allow the population to increase, afact that is commonly overlooked in today’s discussion of therebound effect, which often starts the analysis on a per capitabasis. Like Jevons, Alcott draws a parallel between the effect oflabor productivity and energy efficiency. Instead of leading towidespread unemployment, increased labor productivity leadsto reduced prices of goods (compared to salaries) and an in-crease in societal income, and hence consumption, ensuringfull employment.

The account of the historical debate on this issue is quiteinteresting. There is no doubt that technological advances haveresulted in increased labor and energy productivity and henceincreased employment and energy use. The historical impor-tance of the steam engine, iron and steel making, or the in-troduction of electricity in raising output and enabling the in-crease in production and the use of fossil fuels is uncontested.This historical evidence, however, is not sufficient to prove thatincreased energy efficiency today will lead to increased energyuse, as Alcott himself acknowledges. In countries that have gonethrough a demographic transition, it is no longer the availabil-ity of food that constrains the size of the population, but ratherthe reproductive preferences of the population. I would arguethat a similar transition may also have happened with respect toenergy, which in rich countries today is as widely available andinexpensive as food. I also think that Alcott draws the parallelbetween energy and labor productivity too far. Both variablesare used to explain increased output, however, energy and laborare treated as substitutes in the argument.

Giampietro and Mayumi address a wide range of concepts,from complex adaptive systems and nonequilibrium thermody-namics to postnormal science. The relevance of the discussionto the Jevons paradox is at times unclear. Polimeni presentsan econometric analysis of energy consumption, testing for en-ergy intensity, population, and economic output as explanatoryvariables. The analysis covers countries in four continents. Theanalysis shows that energy consumption rose in most countrieswhile energy intensities decreased. From the analysis, Polimeniconcludes that the Jevons paradox cannot be excluded.

Both books contain interesting information that is worth-while to consider in the larger policy debate about climatemitigation and energy efficiency. The books, however, havefailed to convince me that the Jevons paradox is more than anunconfirmed scientific hypothesis.

The two books, however, have made it clear to me that aJevons paradox could arise only through changes in productiontriggered by efficiency increases. We can hence safely install themost efficient light bulbs and refrigerators in our homes, restingassured that they will decrease our energy use. Sorrell arguesthat the macro rebound associated with general purpose tech-nologies such as the steam engine and the computer is especiallylarge. Sure, advances in computers led to widespread adoptionand a substantial energy demand. Energy efficiency increaseswere a necessary element in making computers ubiquitous. Thesame was true for steam engines, as well as electric motors andlights. Innovation in computing, however, was not driven bythe desire to become more energy efficient. Giampietro andMayumi point out the importance of the evolution of gadgetsand designs. I think it is more likely that new technologies leadto new products and services, and hence new desires to be ful-filled, thus raising overall consumption. I find it amazing thatthe role of new technologies, products, and services is barely,if at all, acknowledged in the Jevons literature. Consideringthat the strongest evidence for the Jevons paradox is associatedwith the introduction of novel general purpose technology, Ifind it implausible that global energy consumption is increasedby adopting more efficient office lighting or choosing the moreefficient of two gas burners.

The two books contain a number of interesting chaptersimportant to the revived discussion of the Jevons paradox.They also have some blind spots, which remain to be illu-minated, and indicate the importance of further empirical re-search. Given the difficulty of finding promising research de-signs, one may wonder whether we should not proceed to policydesigns, which work independent of whether the paradox holdsor not. The concluding chapters of both books point in thatdirection.

Edgar HertwichNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)Trondheim, Norway

References

Ayres, R. U. and B. Warr. 2005. Accounting for growth: The role ofphysical work. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 16(2):181–209.

Hertwich, E. G. 2005. Consumption & the rebound effect: An in-dustrial ecology perspective. Journal of Industrial Ecology 9(1–2):85–98.

Howarth, R. B. 1997. Energy efficiency and economic growth. Contem-porary Economic Policy 15(4): 1–9.

Jevons, W. S. 1866. The coal question: An enquiry concerning the progressof the Nation, and the probable exhaustion of our coal-mines. London,UK: Macmillan.

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