Jessica Blunden October 13, 2015 NOAAS NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 2 Current CO 2 concentration is unprecedented. Major greenhouse gases reach new record high concentrations in the atmosphere every year! ppm 5 JanuaryAugust 2015 warmest such period in 136-year period. Surpasses previous record by 0.16F. February, March, May, June, July, August all record warm. Strong El Nio and global warming contributing to records. Global Surface Temperature Records Continue 6 Europe record warm for 2014, including close to two dozen individual countries. Many Asian countries among 10 warmest. Australia 3 rd warmest for Mexico record warm for 2014 but eastern North America colder than average. 7 Source: State of the Climate in 2013 Kearney River Fire June 2015 Near Willow, Alaska June 2015 Mendenhall Glacier 2015 8 Thawing permafrost is expected to impact migration routes and patterns in birds, reindeer, and caribou. IPCC Projection: By the end of the century, 10% to 50% of Arctic tundra could be overtaken by evergreen shrubs and trees Arctic tundra Caribou ReindeerTundra Swan Evergreen forest, northern North America Permafrost is Thawing September 17, 2014 The 9 smallest Arctic sea ice extents have all occurred in the past 9 years. September sea ice is decreasing at an average rate of -13.9% per decade. Average Monthly Arctic Ice Extent September September th lowest sea ice extent on record, so September 11, 2015 10 As sea ice shrinks through this century, more than 2/3 of the area with sufficient snow cover for ringed seals to reproduce also will disappear, challenging their survival. Ringed seal Source: Hezel et al, Geophysical Research letters, 2012 Designated as an Endangered Species in December 2012 Greenland Some scientists believe there is a slowdown in the Atlantic conveyor belt. 13 Northern Hemisphere June snow extent: declining at a rate of -19.9% per decade In 2014 snow melt occurred 2030 days earlier than the 19982010 average. 14 Preliminary data suggests that 2014 was the 31 st consecutive year of glacier ice loss. Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska September 2014 Courtesy of Chris McNeil 2015 will probably be the warmest year on record for the Global Oceans. Departure from average (F) 16 Losers Winners Sooty Shearwater Loggerhead Turtle Blue Whale Blue Shark Tuna Blackfoot Albatross Source: NOAA study published in Nature climate change, Sept 2012 17 December 2014February 2015 American Samoa NOAA: Corals around the world are undergoing stress and are in danger of dying in the third global coral bleaching event ever recorded, 18 December 2014February 2015 American Samoa NOAA: Corals around the world are undergoing stress and are in danger of dying in the third global coral bleaching event ever recorded, 19 Global Mean Sea Level Sea level rise since 1993 Where sea level is rising and falling Increasing at an average rate of 1.3 inches per decade North America Eurasia Australia Pacific Ocean Estuarine beach and bulkhead, Arthur Kills, Woodbridge Township, New Jersey ( Photo credit: James G. Titus) Diamondback terrapin and horseshoe crabs are at risk of losing beaches where eggs are buried. Source: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: a focus on the mid-Atlantic Region, Diamondback Terrapin Horseshoe Crabs Ocean pH has decreased by about 0.1 since start of Industrial Revolution. pH is expected to decrease by another 0.2 to 0.3 by the end of the century. This decrease is 3 times greater and 100 times faster than during transitions from glacial to interglacial periods. 22 Increased ocean acidification decreases suitable coral habitat. In ~15 years In ~35 years Already past Questions? NOAAS NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER