jens klingmann - lth · 2016-09-06 · 4saudi aramco oil and gas $338 5state grid electric utility...

Miljövänlig elproduktion

Jens Klingmann

LTH / Kraftverksteknik / JK

List of largest companies by revenueWiki.org 30/8 2016

Name Industry Revenue (Billions $)1Walmart Retail $4822Sinopec Group Oil and gas $4553China National Petroleum Corporation Oil and gas $4284Saudi Aramco Oil and gas $3385State Grid Electric utility $3336Samsung Conglomerate $3057Royal Dutch Shell Oil and gas $2738ExxonMobil Oil and gas $2689Vitol Commodities $27010Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Oil and gas $25211Volkswagen Automotive $24512Apple Consumer electronics $23413Toyota Automotive $22714BP Oil and gas $22315Glencore Commodities $22116Total Oil and gas $21217Berkshire Hathaway Conglomerate $21118McKesson Pharmaceuticals $17919China Railway Transport $16320Phillips 66 Oil and gas $161


Questions

Possible future Scenarios and projections: What purposes may they serve?


Klimstra and Hotakainen, “Smart Power Generation-the future of electricity production”

International Energy Agency (IEA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

BP (British Petroleum) Other…

SourcesThat obviously have been filtered by me

Time Saving Truth from Falsehood and Envy,

François Lemoyne, 1737


http://www.smartpowergeneration.com/


Smart Power Generation - TOC

Foreword 6

Introduction – World of energy 9

1. The challenges of the future 15

2. Electricity highly in demand 47

3. Electricity generation – matching production with demand 77

4. Smart power generation – The road to the goal 131

5. Discussion and conclusions 173


1. The challenges of the future Facts about the future

The population keeps growing, albeit at a reducing rate Global standard of living is increasing Climate change Electricity is increasingly important Energy efficiency is required


Problem definition

Global average surface temperature in 1880-2009

Fig. 1:7


Source: VGB


Predictions in the 1950s were that nuclear energy would one day be too cheap to meter

Some projected in the 1970s that the world would run on solar power by the end of the 20th century

Few people anticipated shale gas development …

The future is really, really hard to predict

We all know it, but sometimes we need to be reminded:


Scenarios according to WärtsiläA step into the unknown

Never before have there been as many fundamental changes and challenges at the same time.

– The main concern that requires immediate action is the growth of CO2 emissions. Scientists and engineers must develop completely new, visionary technologies and not just fine-tune existing solutions.

In order to be successful in these turbulent times, we must think about what the future might look like.Having taken the first steps with scenario work – figuring out alternative futures in specific regions and of limited scope, Wärtsilä concluded that the scenarios were very useful and that it was possible to be far more ambitious with them.


Green Earth is a future world that you shape. Whether as a consumer or a voter, your opinion counts.

Consumers have taken it upon themselves - with the help of governments - to change the way they live and consume

Changes in the way we live and consume

Stringent environmental standards for the lifecycle of products

World economy is growing at a modest, sustainable pace


The Blue Globe: A market-oriented, prosperous world powered by coal and nuclear power.

Two-point political agenda: The need for economic growth and the need to curb emissions.

Clear caps on greenhouse gas emissions with flexibility on how to reach them

Active development of carbon trading markets

For coal-based power generation, only CCS-ready ultra-supercritical plants permitted to be built

Cross-border task force to speed up the commercialization of CCS


The Grey World: Resources are scarce and energy security is a major issue for governments around the world.Governments promote energy efficiency and demand- side control to make the scarce supplies last, leading to considerable changes in society..

CO2 storage does not turn out to be a viable option

Public opinion turns against nuclear power

Natural gas is the most important energy source

Countries undermine their potential for economic growth

Climate change has virtually dropped off the political agenda.


Summery of scenarios(Wärtsilä)

Individual consumers and citizens have the power

Accepted scarcity Focus on renewables Sustainable living

Governments have the power Friction due to scarcity Focus on indigenous sources Living on the edge

Utilities have the power Energy abundance Focus on coal Electrification of living


Chapter 1 summery (emphases by JK)Electricity is the very basis of our civilization. After the first fumbling experiments it began to permeate society. Currently we are facing a future of ever-increasing demand for electricity. And this demand must be fulfilled, keeping in mind the other big issues of the future. Fortunate for us, at the moment we are equipped with more profoundscientific knowledge and better technological capabilities than everbefore.

Both human history and the history of life on Earth in general is filled with examples of the importance of flexibility – and especially of consequences caused by the lack of it.

The strive for flexibility is the key issue in the future of energy and electricity production.

There is no Philosopher’s Stone to solve the problems we are facing in the future. And there is no single, simple solution. Despite all the globalization the conditions in different societies, countries, and continents are very different from each other. This has to be taken into account in trying to find the best solution for each case.

And there are solutions to be found, a set of solutions to be applied in different situations and in different conditions. We have to figure out what kind of a future we are aiming at, and then make the right choices.


2. Electricity highly in demand

Demand for electric power will drastically increase in the world during the next decades.

The skill is in producing electricity in a sustainable and economic way. That is why the search for affordable renewable resources and efficient processes continues.

The role of electricity in the economy and the possible sources of primary energy for power generation.


Electricity will always be required?“No matter the shape of the future, our civilization will depend on electricity”

Fig. 1:22


Global ProjectionsBP International EnergyOutlook 2016


Global ProjectionsIEA 2009

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Ele

ctric

ity C

onsu

mpt

ion

(TW

h)

Year

World final electricity consumption by region in the Baseline Scenario


Why we like power

100 W

To generate one kWh, an average person has to drive a 100-watt generator with his legs for 10 hours.

An annual electricity consumption of 8000 kWh averaged per citizen, common in countries such as Japan and Germany, would require about 10 people per citizen pedaling on a home-trainer generator permanently around the clock.

With a more realistic eight hours of work per day, a pedaling crew of at least 30 people would be needed to produce the electricity consumed by one person in those countries


Correlation to Gross domestic product (GDP) is strong

Fig. 2:1 2.2: Electricity use in relationship with GDP (PPP),

data year 2008.


World Wide Electricity Generation from Wind 2000-2015

Source: GWECGWEC-Global-Wind-2015-Report_April-2016_22_04

N.B. Installed capacity. Continue growth: Drivers? Limitations?


World Wide Electricity Generation from Wind 2000-2015

Source: GWECGWEC-Global-Wind-2015-Report_April-2016_22_04

Cumulative: Total installed Power 2015: 433 GW


World electricity generation by fuel (TWh) (Key World Energy STATISTICS, IEA 2015)

All categories increase


1973 and 2013 fuel shares of electricity generation (Key World Energy STATISTICS, IEA 2015)

Renewables (Hydro+Other) roughly maintain their share


An area of 254 km x 254 km would be enough to meet the totalelectricity demand of the world (DLR 2005)

Available solar power


• Steam cycle• Additional firing and/or storage may

provide ”Power on demand”

Parabolic trough Solar Power

• Cooling tower required


High Temperatures possibleO(1250 K)

2 Axis tracking required

Concentrated Solar Power

Southern Spain, near Seville


Gas turbine based solar hybrid Storage of heat

difficult-lower share of solar energy

Water requirements reduced


Lillgrund i öresund (vattenfall):•48 vindkraftverk till havs•110 MW i installerad effekt•Årlig produktion cirka 330 000 MWh•Investeringskostnad omkring 1,8 miljarder kronor

Wind Power


Wind and power

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Average

Rating ≈ 14 m/s

Shut down @ 24 m/s

0.4797

PP

vv

PP 3

1

2

3

1

2

1

2

Wind speed (m/s)

Pow

er (k

W)

Pideal~v3Exempel 9→7 m/s:


Volatility of vind power

Figure 3.28: Electric power output of Spanish wind turbines, January 4 till January 26 (incl.), 2010.


Conclusion:

Power is available

But not always where we want it,nor when we want it


Costs

U.S. Average Levelized Cost for Plants Entering Service in 2017 (2010 USD/MWh)

Plant TypeCapacityFactor(%)

LevelizedCapitalCost

FixedO&M

VariableO&M(includingfuel)

TransmissionInvestment

Total SystemLevelizedCost

Conventional Coal 85 65.8 4.0 28.6 1.2 99.6Advanced Coal 85 75.2 6.6 29.2 1.2 112.2Advanced Coal with CCS 85 93.3 9.3 36.8 1.2 140.7Natural Gas Fired:

ConventionalCombined Cycle87 17.5 1.9 48.0 1.2 68.6

Advanced CombinedCycle87 17.9 1.9 44.4 1.2 65.5

Advanced CC with CCS87 34.9 4.0 52.7 1.2 92.8

Conventional Combustion Turbine30 46.0 2.7 79.9 3.6 132.0

Advanced Combustion Turbine30 31.7 2.6 67.5 3.6 105.3

Advanced Nuclear 90 88.8 11.3 11.6 1.1 112.7Geothermal 92 76.6 11.9 9.6 1.5 99.6

Biomass 83 56.8(MC(Yi=0)=*26.5) 13.8 48.3 1.3 120.2

Wind1 34 83.3 9.7 0.0 3.7 96.8Wind — Offshore1 27 300.6 22.4 0.0 7.7 330.6Solar PV1,2 25 144.9 7.7 0.0 4.2 156.9Solar Thermal1 20 204.7 40.1 0.0 6.2 251.0Hydro1 53 76.9 4.0 6.0 2.1 89.9

1 Non-dispatchable (Hydro is dispatchable within a season, but nondispatchable overall-limited by site and season)2 Costs are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity

Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011. ReleasedJanuary 23, 2012.


Chapter 2 summery (emphases by JK)

Electric energy has wonderful properties for improving living conditions, for creating wealth and for providing widespread communication facilities. Electricity literally gives power to the people. That is why demand for electric energy will continue to increase.Most electric energy is still produced from fossil fuels with their finite resources and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. It would be wrong to continue the traditional burning of fossil fuels at a high pace until they are depleted. Those carbons and hydrocarbons also provide valuable ingredients for the petrochemical industry. Renewable energy sources have a long way to go before they can fully replace the use of fossil fuel. Most renewable electricity sources from wind, solar radiation and biomass have properties that make them less attractive from an availability and flexibility point of view, at least compared with traditional power plants. It is therefore crucial to develop smart power generation and distribution facilities that can support electricity generation from renewable sources. Such smart power generation unitshave to make optimum use of the available fuel resources at possibly minimum costs and minimum impact on the environment.


3. Electricity generation – matching production with demand This chapter discusses stability issues of the electricity

supply system caused by power demand variations as well as by the variability of the output of renewable power sources.

It also compares possible energy storage technologies that might help in balancing electricity production with demand.

Every country appears to have different challenges. The reader needs this information for a proper

understanding of the solutions needed for an effective balancing of electricity production and demand.


Demand variationsFigure 3.5: Daily electricity demand patterns, one in summer and one in winter, in Abu Dhabi (year 2008).


Demand variations

Figure 3.7: Monday morning ramp up in demand for the Netherlands (Week 3, 2010).


Regional differences in possibilities

What is done in Scandinavia to reduce CO2 from power production?

Denmark:Sweden:Finland:Norway:

WindBio and wasteNuclearNo CO2 from power production, but still massive research on CCS!


Storage, principles

Figure 3.39: An energy storage system for balancing betweenelectricity production and electricity consumption. If there is excess production, the splitter leads energy to the storage system for later release when consumption outpacesproduction.


Alqueva 2 (pump storage)

Owner: Empresa de Desenvolvimento e Infra-estruturas do Alqueva, S.A. (EDIA)

Location: Alqueva, Portugal River: Guadiana Capacity: 240 MW (Scheduled) On-Line Date: 2012 Estimated Development Cost: 167 million euro Description: Expansion of existing 259.2-mw

Alqueva, which has been operating since 2003. Development involves construction of a second powerhouse 39.7 meters wide by 79.1 meters long. The powerhouse will contain two 120-mw units, with a maximum water intake of 400 cubic meters per second.

Service and Product Suppliers Involved: Alstom Hydro, EFACEC Engenharia S.A., SMM, Sociedade de Construcoes Soares da Costa SA, Zagope Construcoes e Engenharia


Compressed air energy storage (CAES)a hybrid between peaking and storage

Figure 3.43: The basic process of CEAS in Huntorf and Alabama.


Chapter 3 summery (emphases by JK)

This chapter provides typical information about the variability in demand of electric energy. A main conclusion is that different countries can have completely different demand patterns. This, in combination with indigenous fuel resources or the possibilities for hydropower, means that the power generation techniques used can also differ considerably from country to country. In addition, electricity produced by wind turbines and photovoltaic cells has characteristics deviating from country to country. Balancing and storage solutions that seem appropriate at one location can be completely inadequate at another. In addition, the common belief that extensive transmission grids will help to smooth peaks and valleys in the output of renewable resources appears not to be true. Electrochemical batteries, compressed air and even pumped hydro offer no economical options for the storage of energy to cover extended time spans with no output from wind-based and solar-based power capacity. However, such storage systems can help to smooth short-term variations in output from renewable sources. Gas with methane as the major constituent appears to have excellent properties to serve as a quality fuel for both short-term and seasonal balancing capacity.


4. Smart power generation – The road to the goal Investors in new power plants as well as political decision

makers face huge challenges with respect to attaining a secure, affordable and clean electricity supply.

There is competition in open energy markets and it is not clear what the best market model for a commodity such as electricity is.

Large-scale introduction of, often subsidized, renewable energy sources tends to disturb the delicate balancing of power production and power demand.

This chapter discusses the challenges and defines key performance indicators of generators, finally leading to the solution of smart power generation.


Ramping times

Figure 4.8: Starting and ramping up ofthree different generating technologies.


Multiple generating units in parallel

Figure 4.22:Fuel efficiency of a power plant of 10 generating units of each 20 MW in parallel versus output (one inmaintenance, 9 available, cascadingmode) compared with that of one 180MW unit.

Larger units do have higher full load efficiency/JK


Chapter 4, first 5 conclusions


Chapter 4, next 5 conclusions


5. Discussion and conclusions

Investors in new power plants as well as political decision makers face completely new challenges with respect to a secure, affordable and clean electricity supply.

Competition in open energy markets, uncertainties about fuel availability, emission issues and economic developments make it very difficult to reach the right decision about to invest in what electricity generating technology. Next to that, an often subsidized large-scale introduction of renewable energy sources tends to disturb the balancing of power production and demand.

This chapter discusses the challenges and defines key performance indicators finally leading to the solution of smart electricity generation.


Chapter 5 “general truths”

More people want to consume more natural resources that are finite by definition

Energy saving works best with maximum building insulation and with optimization of applications

Fossil fuels are ultimately finite Electrification of parts of the transportation is unavoidable with

scarcer liquid fuels Electric heat pumps with hot water storage will increasingly be

used to heat buildings Transmission grids for electricity, even big ones, can’t store energy Gas, in the future increasingly from biomass and waste, is an

excellent long-term energy buffer Compressed natural gas has a factor 86 times higher energy

density than compressed air


Chapter 5 “general truths”

Natural gas is much more suitable for long distance energy transport than electricity

Much wind and solar based power reduces the utilization factor of the other power plants

Much back-up power is needed for wind turbines and solar PV Very flexible electricity generation is needed in the future Curtailing the output peaks from wind turbines and solar PV saves

money Smart meters mainly serve energy retailers Smart appliances only help to smooth short term electricity demand It is better to support dedicated research than subsidize sales of

immature technologies For power supply, a good neighbor is better than a distant friend Smart power plants based on multiple units in parallel have

maximum flexibility and reliability as well as high fuel efficiency


”Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has always had a rather bad press. That's probably because, unlike for example renewable energy, it does not produce anything. It only prevents something,

namely CO2 from reaching the atmosphere”

European Energy Review:


utsläppen av växthusgaser ska minska med 40 procent till 2020 jämfört med 1990 Andelen förnybar energi ska utgöra minst 50 procent

av den totala energianvändningen, och minst 10 procent inom transportsektorn till 2020 Energianvändningen vara 20 procent effektivare

jämfört med 2008 (vad betyder detta?)

Svenska regeringens klimatmål Antaget av riksdagen 2009, kontrolstation 2015

Source: http://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2016/02/sverige-nar-de-klimat--och-energipolitiska-malen-och-regeringen-tar-fram-strategi-for-klimatanpassning/


END

jens klingmann - lth · 2016-09-06 · 4saudi aramco oil and gas $338 5state grid electric utility...

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