jelena fedurko_how is ccpm differnt_10 tocpa_feb 2013_india_22 feb 2014_fin

10th International Conference of the TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPACopyright 2014 by Oded Cohen & Jelena Fedurko

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Feb 21-22, 2014 Noida, India

10th International Conference of the

TOC Practitioners Alliance - TOCPAwww.tocpractice.com

In which way CCPM

is different?

Jelena FedurkoTOC Strategic Solutions, Estonia22 February, 2014


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Jelena has 14 years of TOC experience as atrainer and consultant providing support in TOCimplementations in the areas of peoplemanagement, production, supply chain, projectmanagement.Jelena has worked in Japan, Poland, Turkey, Italy,Russia, Ukraine, India, China, Chile, Colombia,Mexico and other countries throughout the world.Jelena is the author of the books Behind theCloud Enhancing logical thinking and ThroughClouds to Solutions. The books present newdevelopments in the area of working withassumptions, UDEs and UDE Clouds.Together with Oded Cohen Jelena has co-authored the book TOC Fundamentals, recentlypublished in Russian.She has authored numerous articles on TOCconcepts and implementation, and hascontributed to and edited several TOC books. [email protected]

www.toc-strategicsolutions.com

Jelena Fedurko


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Main types of constraints of a commercial system:

Capacity Constraint a system has a resource which cannot provide capacity that

the systems demands within the required span of time.

Market Constraint the amount of customers orders is not sufficient to sustain the

required growth of the system.

Time Constraint the response time of the system to the requirement of the market

is too long to the extent that it jeopardizes the systems ability to meet its current

commitment to its customers as well as the ability of winning new business.

What is the constraint of the project management?When does the system create value for the goal of making more money?

At the completion of the project benefits are generated and money invested is

starting to be returned! The shorter is the time to complete the project the better!

Conclusion: Projects have the TIME constraint.

1. The realization that every systems performance is governed by

the constraint.

In which way CCPM is different?


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Step 1. Identify (choose) the systems constraint.

In projects it is TIME the longest chain of dependant tasks.

The dependency is not only logical but also resource dependency.

Step 2. Decide how to exploit the systems constraint.

In projects it done through planning of the acceptable and realistic

duration of the project to bring financial benefits.

Step 3. Subordinate everything else to the above decision.

Ensuring that the plan is

realistic

absorbs inevitable fluctuations in the execution phase, and

protected against disruptions.

WE DO NOT REPLAN!!

2. Following 5 Focusing Steps of TOC.



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Step 4. Elevate the systems constraint.

Making more projects with the same resources in the same

period of time.

Step 5. If the constraint is broken go back to step one but do

not allow Inertia to cause the systems constraint. Ensuring that the system will NOT create

Capacity constraint

Market constraint

Cash constraint (a Capacity constraint type)

2. Following 5 Focusing Steps of TOC.



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Current and harmful practice

We have seen project plans that include over a thousand tasks with durations

from 2 hours to several weeks.

One director of a big construction company once boasted that every project

manager in their company must follow in detail and make decisions for up to

SEVENTY open tasks on several construction sites EVERY DAY including daily

personal visits to several sites.

What is the quality of detailed following and making decisions in this case?

How many minutes can be spent for each one of 70 open tasks? On average it

makes reviewing 9 open tasks an hour less than 7 minutes per task. It is if the

project manager sits in his office and just opens the files. What about the time

that is needed to visit the construction site and physically move from the area of

one task to another?

TOC Rule not more than 300-400 tasks even in a very big project.

3. Having manageable number of tasks in the plan.



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Current and harmful practice Top managements appoints the best expert in the subject of the project to be the

project manager to ensure that s/he will be able to understand every task in order to

better oversee it.

TOC Rule Project Manager is responsible for maintaining and speeding up the FLOW of

tasks from resource to resource.

The responsibility of understanding every task and ensuring that it is performed by the

qualified resource and the content and way of working on it are appropriate is the

responsibility of the Resource Manager. OR

A top manager of a VERY high level of authority Vice President for Operations/

Director of Product Development/ Creative Director, etc. is officially appointed as the

Project Manager for an important project.

TOC Recommendation such highly positioned top managers could be Program Directors

but should NOT be given the role of Project Managers.

4. The Project Manager is a MANAGER, NOT an Expert in the subject

matter of tasks, and not a Vice President.



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5. The project plan MUST have FIXED START DATE AND FIXED

COMPLETION DATE aggressive but realistic.

The PRIME objective of CCPM and the Prime Measurement for projects

completing project ON TIME.

Why?

The project brings benefits only AFTER completion.

Having fixed start date and project completion due date is also a technical

requirement for the CCPM mechanics to work.

This raises a frequent question WHAT IS THE END OF MY PROJECT?

Especially if the project is treated by a company as an Investment project

- New equipment

- New production facility

- New technology



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COMPLETION DATE aggressive but realistic

WHEN IS THE END OF MY PROJECT?

Purchasing new equipment (especially dedicated for a specific

type of product food industry) what is the project end?

When the equipment is installed and produced the first batch?

When the equipment moved to mass production?

When the product for which this equipment was bought has

finished its market life cycle?

Building a new commercial facility what is the project end?

When the construction is completed?

When all premises are sublet to tenants?

Another frequent question: Shouldnt the end of the project be

tied to the return on investment?



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COMPLETION DATE aggressive but realistic

And there is also another frequent question:

WHAT IS THE START OF MY PROJECT?

Is the starting point a decision to investigate an idea?

Is the starting point planning?

Is the stating point the start of the first task (start of the

execution)?



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W16

B10 M16

C20

G10

M12

FinishLetter andColour = Resource

6. The project plan is built ONLY with the relationship Finish to Start.

The end of each task has a tangible deliverable without which

the next task CANNOT START.



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Why is there the requirement Finish to Start?

To allow for the mechanics of PROJECTING the behaviour of the

chain in the execution phase to work.

28d

T2-10d T3-16d

T6-20d

T1-10dBUFFER 50% of the chain

28d

T2-10d T3-16d

T6-20d

T1-17d

BUFFER IS NOT A CUSHION

BUT MANAGEMENT

MECHANISM!

Task 1 started and in Day 3 the resource reports that the task faces a difficulty and it will

take not 7 days to complete, but 14.

The chain went into the buffer for 7 days



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To allow for the mechanics of PROJECTING the behaviour of the chain in the execution phase to work.

28d

T2-10d T3-16d

T6-20d

T1-17d

Day 3: Task 1 started and in Day 3 the resource reports that the task faces a difficulty and it will take not

7 days to complete, but 14. New estimated total task duration is: 3 days (passed) +14 days (projected)

=17 days new estimated total duration of Task1. Estimated duration in the project plan was 10 days.

The chain went

into the buffer

for 7 days

28d

T2-10d T3-16d

T6-20d

T1-12dThe chain moved

backwards and

now is only 2 days

in the buffer

Day 6: After the recovery actions on Task 1 the task resource reports that now it will take 6 days

more to complete: 6 days passed+6 days more = total 12 days (instead of estimated 10).

Amount of work in days increased protection decreased

We decreased the amount of work and increased protection





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Why is the TOC projection mechanism not going to be helpful for managing the

project if the connection is anything different from Finish to Start?

Construction 6 months

Supply 4 months



Supply 4.5 months

Increase in Task Supply is 2 weeks. So

what? How does this increase in

duration reflect on the START of Task

Construction?

And how often is it discovered that there is delay in supply only WHEN Construction

actually cannot start because the materials are LATE?



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Supply 4 months

We may hear an argument: it is enough if the supplier ships us of the materials

that we may start the Task Construction. Then the relationship is like that:


Supply

the rest - 3 months

Supply

first 1/4 mater.

- 1 month

If the 1/4 of

materials come

with the 2 week

delay:


Supply

the rest - 3 months

Supply

first 1/4 mater.

- 1 month

Or supply can still finish

within the initial

estimation





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7. For every task in the project plan we put the estimation of task

duration that has ONLY 50% probability to be completed within the

estimated time or earlier.

Bad multitasking Students syndrome Parkinsons Law

Tasks contain a lot of safety! Why? Because of the behaviour of managers: in the planning phase managers ask for estimations,in execution they treat estimations as justified commitments.

Natural behaviour of people to protect themselves by putting safety into the estimation.

What impacts conventional estimations of task duration?P

r

o

b

a

b

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50% 80% TimeDurations of estimations with 80% and more probability to be met

are twice longer than durations with 50% probability to be met.



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Letters Project Numbers Project Shapes ProjectA 1

B 2 C 3 D 4

E 5 F 6 G 7 H 8 I 9 J 10


7. For every task in the project plan we put the estimation of task

duration that has ONLY 50% probability to be completed within the

estimated time or earlier.


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Estimation times Impact of Multitasking

Duration of Project

Letters

Duration of Project

Numbers

Duration of Project

Shapes

Duration of Project

Letters

Duration of Project

Numbers

Duration of

Project

Shapes



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Critical Chain sorts out the resource contention it takes into

consideration both logical AND resource dependency.

W16

B10 M16C20

G10

M12

Finish

64 days

Critical Chain

W16

B10 M16

C20

G10

M12

FinishLetter andColour = Resource

Critical Path Promise = 56 days

M16 - Resource contention!

How realistic is this plan?

What if the plan had 500 tasks, or even 150 tasks? Could one easily see the

resource overlap?

8. The project plan is built based on understanding that the

Constraint in Projects is the Duration of the longest chain.



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1- Build the project network

Now the projected completion date of the longest chain is 20.08.2013

BUT we have resource contention





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2- Level the resources remove resource contention

The projected completion date of the longest chain moved to 17.09.2013 REALISTIC!





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3 Identify Critical Chain and build resource dependencies

The projected completion date of the longest chain did not change 17.09.2013

New dependencies RESOURCE dependencies are inserted.



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9. The individual safety is removed from each task (due to putting in the plan 50% probability estimations) and accumulated in buffers for common CONTROLLED use.

The projected completion date of the Critical Chain moved to 23.09.2013,

the realistic and PROTECTED projected end of the project is 02.12.2013

The buffers protect the Critical Chain from the fluctuations in task durations in the

execution phase. Project Buffer is added to the end of the Critical Chain, and Feeding

buffers at the end of each Feeder in the point where the Feeder flows into the

Critical Chain.

The TOC Rule the size of the buffer is 50% of the chain at the end of which it is put.



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BUFFERS A frequent reservation that we hear: But Buffers make the duration of the project 50% longer!! VERY WRONG! Compare:

With 50% durations and buffers the projected completion date for the project is 02.12.2013.

With 80% durations the projected completion date for the project is 05.02.2014.



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10. CCPM does NOT work on the principle of TASK DUE DATE!

CCPM works on the principle of Roadrunner- every resource

finishes the task as soon as possible and passes it to the next

resource that will be informed in time and will be waiting.



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11. Tasks performers report NOT How Much They Have Completed

(this is looking backwards) but HOW MANY MORE DAYS IS LEFT

FOR THEM TO COMPLETE THE TASK according to their fresh

estimation. This is looking forward!

TOC

TODAYTHE PAST THE FUTURE



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12. DAILY projection of the penetration into the buffers gives early warning that allows to take corrective actions that are not overly expensive and return the project back on its track.

In the execution phase every day each resource gives the Project

Manager the estimation HOW MANY DAYS ARE LEFT TO COMPLETE

THE TASK.

This data is entered into the system and the system calculates the

projected penetration to the buffers.

The projection works on the principle of a train on the rail

moving forward and backward in time.

Forward consuming the days from the buffer, Backward

returning the days in the buffer.



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Today is 20 May, the resource performing Task C1 (that was supposed to be finished 06 May)

reports that he still needs 15 days to complete.



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Today is 21 May, during the day corrective actions were taken (e.g. expert assistance or adding resources ), and by the end of the day he reports that now he needs 2 days to complete.



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% Longest Chain Complete

%

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100%Buffer penetration Report



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13. Gives the top management quick, comprehensive and clearly visualized way of the project portfolio status.


Each dot is a project.

jelena fedurko_how is ccpm differnt_10 tocpa_feb 2013_india_22 feb 2014_fin

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