jeff king northwest power and conservation council portland, or july 17, 2008

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan

Proposed Aeroderivative Combustion Turbine Planning

AssumptionsJeff King

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilPortland, OR

July 17, 2008

July 17, 2008 2Northwest

Power andConservation

Council

NorthwestPower andConservation

Council

Reference plant Twin 47 MW (nominal) natural gas-fired gas turbine

generators and ancillary equipment, control building and switchyard. Inlet air evaporative cooling. Dry low-emission combustors and SCR for NOx control and CO oxidizing catalyst for CO and VOC control. Located in utility service territory near load center. Characteristics generally based on GE LM6000PD Sprint.



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Aeroderivative GT applications:

Energy generation Cogeneration (requires heat recovery & integration equipment) Regulating reserve (requires AGC) Load-following (requires AGC) Spinning reserve (requires AGC) Non-spinning reserve Replacement reserve Voltage control (VAR support) (requires clutch) Black start (requires auxilliary diesel generator) Local emergency service

Status: Commercially mature



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Aeroderivative GT operating characteristics I

5th Plan Proposed

Base rating (net ISO MW, lifecycle average)

2 units @ 46 MW/unit

2 units @ 45 MW/unit

ISO rating less 2% plant losses, less 2%

degradation

Rating at reference PNW locations

PNW Westside (200’)

PNW Eastside (700’)

S. ID (3000’)

E. MT (5500’)

0.99

0.97

0.90

0.82

Minimum load (% rated power) 25% Same

Ramp rate (%/hr) >100% Same Cold start to min. load < 10 min

Minimum run time (hr) 1 hour < 1 hr

Minimum down time (hr) 1 hour < 1 hr



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Aeroderivative GT operating characteristics II

5th Plan Proposed

Scheduled outage factor 3.6% (10 days/yr ave)

Same GE maintenance schedule: Annual – 7 d 6 yr Hot gas path – 10 d 12 yr Major - 28 d

Equivalent forced outage rate 3.6%/10% ?? NERA is 3.7%. Review GADS

Mean time between failures -- 528 hr GADS GT value ca: 2004. Will review GADS

Mean time to repair 80 hours Same GADS GT value ca: 2004. Will review GADS

Heat rate (HHV, full load, lifecycle ave)

9960 Btu/kWh Same 1% degradation during hot gas path maintenance

interval; 50% retoration; 100 % restoration at Major

Vintage heat rate improvement - 0.5%/yr average Same 5% learning rate

Service life 30 years Same



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Aeroderivative GT costs (2006 dollar values)

5th Plan Proposed

Overnight construction cost $700/kW $860/kW 2008 NTP/2009 service

Vintage capital cost escalation -0.5%/yr See subsequent slides

Non-fuel Fixed O&M $9.30/kW/yr GRAC discussion

Exclusive of property taxes & insurance

Non-fuel Variable O&M $9.30/MWh GRAC discussion

Startup Cost -- Fuel for 10 min operation at min

load

110 MMBtu/start, w/SCR (NERA)

Shutdown Cost -- Fuel for 5 min operation at min

load

Transmission Cost None Same Assumed load center location

Transmission Losses None Same Assumed load center location



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Aeroderivative GT construction cost analysis• NPCC database contains reported construction cost for 17

WECC plants comprising 54 units, 2002-08

• Purged plants w/more than four units.

• Purged SF & SCE peakers.

• Remaining: 9 plants, 1 - 4 units ea., 22 units total

• Normalize capital costs using MICROFINAssume cost is vintaged as of beginning of construction (YOL - 1)

2006 dollar values

"Overnight" construction + development cost

Nominal ISO capacity

• Unit (capacity) -weighted (we need an average cost value for a potential mix of plant configurations)



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Normalized aeroderivative GT costProposed 2008 cost: $860/kW

"Overnight", 2006$, 2009 service

R2 = 0.2749

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Cost Estimate Vintage

Cap

ital

Co

st 2

006$

/kW

Unit (capacity) weighted

Poly. (Unit (capacity) weighted)



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Our preliminary thinking on forecast construction cost escalation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Vintage of construction contract (YOL-1)

Over

nig

ht

con

stru

ctio

n c

ost

(2

006$

/kW

)Escalation continues at declining rate through 2009; levels off 2010 - 11

Real costs decline to ~ 130% of 2004 values 2012 - 15

Recent cost escalation

2015 > Resumption of historical real cost reduction



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Schedule, Cash Flows & Option phases

Portfolio Risk model development phases >

Development “Optional” Construction

“Committed Construction”

Milestones Feasibility study through completion

of permitting

Notice to proceed to major equipment

foundations complete

Accept major equipment to commercial operation

Time to complete 18 mo 12 mo (3) 6 mo

Cash expended 2 % 93 % 5 %

Cost to suspend ($/kW) Negligible --

Cost to hold ($/kW/yr) $ 1.16 ($95,000/yr) --

Maximum hold time 60 mo 60 mo --

Cost of termination following suspension ($/kW)

Negligible --

Cost of immediate termination ($/kW)

Negligible --



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Environmental5th Plan Proposed

Particulates 0.09 T/GWh Values from recent permit?

NPCC does not use & few if any requests

SO2 0.09 T/GWh '' NPCC does not use & few if any requests

NOx 0.009 - 0.01 T/GWh

'' NPCC does not use & few if any requests

CO 0.09 - 0.11 T/GWh

'' NPCC does not use & few if any requests

Hydrocarbons/VOC 0.08 T/GWh '' NPCC does not use & few if any requests

CO2 – Embedded -- ???

CO2 – Direct operation 582 T/GWh Same 117 lb CO2/MMBtu NG

CO2 – Indirect operation -- ???

jeff king northwest power and conservation council portland, or july 17, 2008

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