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Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect
andand
Electricity ProductionElectricity Production
January 2002 www.beaconsulting.com
Jean-Pierre HAUET
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� 60 % of the greenhouse effect results from CO2emissions.
� CO2 emissions represented 22500 Million tonnes in 1997.
� CO2 emissions from electricity generation represented 7650 Million tonnes in 1997 i.e 34% of total emissions.
A few figures
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� Power sector CO2 emissions are particularly important because :
– electricity generation is expected to grow steadily in the coming decades (≅ 3% per year on overage - ≅ 5% in developing countries).
– the power sector will probably become more dependent on fossil fuels.
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� CO2 emissions in the Power Sector are highly dependent on the generation mode :
– Coal : 920 kg/MWh– Oil : 683 kg/MWh– Gas : 452 kg/MWh– Nuclear : a few kg/MWh– Hydrolic : 0 kg/MWh
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� However the selection of the generation mode is today based on considerations other than CO2emissions :
– investment cost ⇒ gas– duration of construction ⇒ gas– availability of resources ⇒ coal – acceptance by public ⇒ nuclear
� CO2 emissions are ignored because associated costs for the community are not internalized.
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World Electricity generation 1971-2020 (IEA)
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CO2 emissions in 2020
� According to the “Reference Scenario” of IEA– annual global CO2 emissions from electricity generation
will increase by 76% between 1997 and 2020 and represent 37 % of the total CO2 emissions in 2020 (13500 Mt i.e. more than 50% of the actual total emissions),
– more than 2/3 of incremental CO2 emissions will be located in developing countries (China and India) notably due to growth in coal combustion.
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CO2 emissions in 2020
� THESE FORECASTS ARE VERY FAR FROM THE OBJECTIVE OF STABILIZATION RESULTING FROM THE KYOTO PROTOCOL.
� THEY PUT THE COMING DECADES AT RISK.
IS IT POSSIBLE TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE ?.
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Limit the emissions : an absolute necessity
� Improve the efficiency (producers and users),
� Switch to less carbon intensive fossil fuels,
� Develop fuel cells,
� Use renewable energies.
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930
850
830
780
700 750 800 850 900 950
Coa l
Advanced PCF
PFBC (Pressurised Fluidized Bed Combustion)
IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles)
PCF (Pulverized Coal Fired with Flue Gas Desulfurisation )
Average emissions in kg CO2 / Mwh
Improve the efficiency
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Switch from coal to natural gas
� Maintaining coal-fired power plants at their 1977 level and substituting natural gas-fired generation to the new ones would reduce CO2 emissions by about 10% in 2020 (1300 Million tons).
� The increase from 1997 to 2020 would remain close to 55 %.
� The dependency of electricity generation on natural gas would become very high (about 50%).
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Develop fuel cells
NB : Fuel Cell / microturbine system on co-generation
PEM ≅ 255 g CO2 / kWh
SOFC ≅ 235 g CO2 / kWh
Type System Power gCO2 /kWh
Methane-fuelled PEM ≅ 200 kW 535( Proton Exchange Membrane )
SOFC ≅ 50 kW 400 - 440( Solid Oxide Fuel Cell )
SOFC + GT ( Gas Turbine ) ≅ 500 kW 280 - 305
Methanol - fuelledPEM ( with reformer ) ≅ 100 kW 700
DMFC ≅ 100 kW 600( Diret Methanol Fuel Cell )
≅
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Use renewable energies
� Solar Energy
� Hydro energy
But renewable have some limitations
Coal 8 %
Renewables2 %
Heat 3 %
Electricity 20 %
Oil 49 %Gas 18 %
Fuel shares in the world total final consumption
in 2020
� Wind energy
(Source IAE)
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� Limitation will not be sufficient in the long term.
� More drastic measures are required :– rehabilitation of nuclear energy– capture and storage of CO2
� They have to be prepared now.
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Nuclear energy
� By generating electricity with no CO2 emissions, nuclear energy could contribute significantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
� A 25% share of nuclear power of in the global electricity output (17% in 1997) would reduce CO2emissions by about 3000 Million tonnes in 2020 and more in the to follow decades.
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Nuclear energy
� This would imply :– a strong political involvement for restoring public
confidence in this form of energy,
– new developments aiming to develop smaller and safer reactors with an appropriate international control on proliferation.
However,nuclear energy cannot be the only solution tothe CO2 challenge.
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CO2 capture and storage
� Capture and storage of CO2 will become indispensable in the next decades.
� Various technologies are today under investigation :– fuel decarbonisation prior to combustion,
– “tail-end” capture solution (e.g. : amine scrubbing),
– combustion in O2 / CO2 / H2O atmospheres
• CO2 cycles with cryo air separation
• air turbines with integrated membranes.
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Example : Conventional GTCC with MEA CO2 - Absorber
G
G
TurbineCompressor
Combustor
Boiler
CO2depletedExhaust
CO2 ,liquid
M
Stripper
MEA CO2Absorber
CO2 Compressor
Steam Turbine
Fuel
Air
MEA
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CO2 capture and storage
These technologies cannot be considered as mature :– they significantly deteriorate the efficiency (up to 10
points),
– they increase the cost of electricity,
– they require a large investment effort.
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CO2 capture and storage costs
Costs PCF(Pulverised Coal-Fired)
IGCC(Integrated Gasification-
Combined Cycle)
NGCC(Natural Gas-
Combined Cycle)
Cost increase ofelectricitygeneration(€ c/kWh)
≅ 2,5 ≅ 3,1 ≅ 1
Cost of CO 2avoidance(€/ t CO 2)
50-75 45-60 35-55
Based on current technologies, the relative increase in the electricity cost would be between 20% to 90%.
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CO2 sequestration (capture, separation and storage)
� About 3000 GW of additional capacity will be built over the next 25 years, i.e. 120 GW per year.
� Assuming that 50% of the new fleet would be equipped with CO2 capture systems, this would imply, under today’s conditions, an additional investment of about 50 billion € per year.
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CO2 sequestration (capture, separation and storage)
� Such an investment justifies an R&D effort much higher than the current one. Opportunities for significant cost reductions exist since very little R&D has been devoted to CO2 capture technologies.
The US DOE estimates that $ 60 M per year for 10 years should be spent on R&D in CO2 sequestration
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Creating the appropriate economic context
� Nothing will happen if the players in the economy are not encouraged to be proactive.
� CO2 is not a pollutant. Only excess of CO2 may be hazardous. A lump-tax would do nothing except jeopardize the economic growth.
� More subtle mechanisms must be implemented :– CO2 allowances trading associated with emission credits,
– contractual commitments.
Infringements on the obligations should trigger sufficiently high penalties : 100 to 200 € per ton of CO2
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Conclusions
� Power generation will be a major issue in the coming decade as regards CO2 emissions.
� Conventional approaches will not suffice to stabilise emissions
� Faced with this issue, two routes of an order of magnitude apportioned to the challenge present themselves :– rehabilitation of nuclear power,
– sequestration of CO2.
� An appropriate economic framework must be created to allow the right decisions to be taken.
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