japan k e china germany uk k...8:30 non farm payrolls -8000k 5/8 -22000 -20537 1463 1.69 ener hc...

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

None

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

8:30 Non Farm Payrolls -8000K 5/8 -22000 -20537 1463 1.69 Ener HC

8:30 Private Payrolls -7250K 5/8 -22000 -19557 2443 1.69 Ener HC

8:30 Manufacturing Payrolls -400K 5/8 -2500 -1330 1170 1.69 Ener HC

8:30 Unemployment Rate 19.5 5/8 16.0 14.7 -1.3 1.69 Ener HC

8:30 Avg Hourly Earnings 1.0 5/8 0.4 4.7 4.3 1.69 Ener HC

8:30 Avg Weekly Hours 34.3 5/8 33.5 34.2 0.7 1.69 Ener HC

13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count (289)

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

ETR UBS Neutral Buy

HXL BMO Capital Mkt Perf Outperf

NAV Baird Neutral Outperf

NVAX JP Morgan Underwgt Neutral

SYY Wells Fargo Mkt Wgt Overwgt

TOL Evercore Inline Outperf

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

AAL Ray James Mkt Perf Underperf

BLDR Evercore Outperf Inline

EBAY BMO Capital Outperf Mkt Perf

MDC Evercore Outperf Inline

MTH Evercore Outperf Inline

RYAM RBC Capital Outperf Mkt Perf

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

ANTM Goldman Initiated Neutral

CHGG Needham Reiterated Buy

HUM Goldman Initiated Buy

ICPT BMO Capital Initiated Outperf

UNH Goldman Initiated Buy

VKTX BMO Capital Initiated Outperf

- Global Equities Sharply Higher Ahead of May Jobs Report.h 0.7 %

h 0.5

h 1.8

h 1.3

Oil 38.3 h $0.9

Gold 1709.3 i -$18.1

$/Euro 0.882 h 0.00

$/Yen 109.24 h 0.1

10-Yr 0.87 h 0.05

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Trading Up ($):

BA (9.1), RH (8.59), TSLA (8.42), UAL (5.34), AVGO (5.22), NVAX (4.75)

Trading Down ($):

MDB (-7.79), WORK (-5.39), AMZN (-2.6), ZM (-2.35), NFLX (-1.84), CRWD (-1.58)-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Economic Indicators & Events

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AVGO Reported inline EPS (5.14) on stronger revenues; guided inline.

CAL Missed EPS forecasts by 44 cents (-1.30 vs -0.86) on weaker revenues.

COO Missed EPS forecasts by 91 cents (1.51 vs 2.42) on weaker revenues.

DOCU Beat EPS forecasts by 2 cents (0.12 vs 0.10) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

GME Lowers revenue guidance and says comps are down 30%.

GPS Reported wider than expected loss on weaker sales; saw 100% growth in May online sales.

MDB Beat EPS forecasts by 12 cents (-0.13 vs -0.25) on stronger revenues; guidance mixed.

MTN Beat EPS forecasts by 64 cents (3.74 vs 3.10) on stronger revenues.

NVAX Receives DoD funding of $60 million for manufacturing of COVID vaccine candidate.

NX Beat EPS forecasts by 14 cents (0.19 vs 0.05) on weaker revenues.

RH Beat EPS forecasts by 50 cents (1.27 vs 0.77) on inline revenues.

SAIC Reported inline EPS (1.38) on stronger revenues; guidance mixed.

SPWH Beat EPS forecasts by 9 cents (0.01 vs -0.08) on stronger revenues.

WORK Reported narrower than expected loss (-0.02 vs -0.06) on stronger revenues; raised guidance.

ZUMZ Missed EPS forecasts by 15 cents (-0.79 vs -0.64) on weaker revenues.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.01 0.31 0.45

Technicals 0.08 0.25 0.55

Fundamental 0.05 -0.08 0.24

Overall 0.06 0.21 0.44

Average (all days) 0.13 0.26 0.52

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

THO 6/8/20 AM -0.08 1,662.7

CVGW 6/8/20 PM 0.50 315.9

CASY 6/8/20 PM 1.72 1,756.8

COUP 6/8/20 PM 0.07 111.9

SFIX 6/8/20 PM -0.14 414.6

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

Estimate

Conferences & Meetings

Dividends & SplitsBDX 0.79

PEG 0.49

None

None

Index Changes

https://www.bespokepremium.com/

Ticker Price

None

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

HP 24.99 3.41 -1.72 37.3

IR 30.68 1.63 -1.31 60.2

MOS 13.86 2.73 -1.29 36.8

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OS OS

$/Yen OB N

2-Year OB N

10-Year OS N

Gold N N

Silver OB OB

Copper OB OB

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil OB N

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas N N

OS N OB

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

AAL 41.1 9 2.6 55.6 -15.4 11.1

VRTV 35.3 20 -1.0 50.0 1.0 40.0

TUP 28.2 13 2.0 61.5 -3.7 30.8

PVAC 25.5 18 -1.2 50.0 1.2 50.0

CMTL -18.2 7 5.5 71.4 5.2 57.1

VREX -15.4 4 2.1 50.0 2.2 75.0

EHTH -10.1 8 1.6 62.5 8.9 87.5

DY -7.9 38 1.0 50.0 1.1 50.0

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB OB

Cons Discret. OB OB

Cons Staples N N

Energy OB OB

Financials OB OB

Health Care N N

Industrials OB OB

Materials OB OB

Technology OB OB

Comm. Svcs OB OB

Utilities OB N

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

0.2

78.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OB

OS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 9.9 % 9.8 %10-Day A/D Line i 1208 1221# of Overbought Stocks h 394 344# of Oversold Stocks h 1 0

P/E Ratio Trailing h 21.65 21.08 Forward h 24.92 24.19

Dividend Yield i 1.95 % 2.00 %

Net Earnings Revisions i -30.3 % -23.0 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield i 580 660Corporate Bonds i 174 187

Current One Week Ago


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For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.


https://www.bespokepremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Morning-Lineup-Explained.pdf

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

1230

1240

1250

1260

1270

1280

1290

1300

1310

12/6 1/7 2/4 3/3 3/31 4/29 5/27

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

1230

1240

1250

1260

1270

1280

1290

1300

1310

12/6 1/7 2/4 3/3 3/31 4/29 5/27

50-DMA: 1247

200-DMA: 1217

1198

1208

1218

1228

1238

1248

1258

1268

5/15 5/19 5/21 5/25 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

1210

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

1690

1700

1710

1720

1730

1740

1750

1760

1770

1780

1790

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

200-DMA: 1579

50-DMA: 1715

1732

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

2750

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

200-DMA: 3006

50-DMA: 2832

3112

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

200-DMA: 1481

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

50-DMA: 1261

1452

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

50-DMA: 8657

200-DMA: 8560

8600

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

9800

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

9616

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

200-DMA: 46

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

50-DMA: 2437.34


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DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

12/3 1/2 1/31 3/2 3/30 4/28 5/27

200-DMA: 9805

7400

7900

8400

8900

9400

9900

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

50-DMA: 8206

9575

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

150

154

158

162

166

170

174

178

182

186

190

194

12/6 1/7 2/5 3/5 4/2 5/1 6/1

150

154

158

162

166

170

174

178

182

186

190

194

12/6 1/7 2/5 3/5 4/2 5/1 6/1

200-DMA: 164

173

174

175

176

177

178

179

180

181

182

183

5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27 5/29 6/2 6/4

50-DMA: 178

174


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary

Overview: Ten year yields have surged 22 bps this week, putting bonds deep into oversold territory on

the day of the May Employment Situation Report’s release. Industrial commodities continue to push

higher, as copper futures push 1.8% higher towards a test of the 200-DMA. To close the week, the US

equity market hasn’t looked twice, and is set to surge higher by 85 bps at the open, with futures sitting

8% below record highs. Large cap tech, however, has been lagging this morning with QQQ only show-

ing marginal gains. The dollar continues to plunge, while the move higher in the Treasury curve this

week has fueled sharp steepening of the curve. Global Economic Scorecard

National Protests: Last night a New York judge suspended habeas corpus by granting the police the

right to hold detained protestors more than 24 hours without charge. Protests continued across the

country, but the prevalence of riots and looting has thankfully subsided.

APAC Markets: Malaysia was the only equity market in the region to drop on the day, as US equity in-

dex futures rose steadily for the entire session. Hong Kong was a major outperformer, up 1.7%, while

Korea’s KOSPI, Singapore’s Straits Times, and India’s Nifty 50 all gained over 1% as well. Indices across

the region closed at session highs. Currencies across the region rallied, with IDR’s massive gains contin-

uing. IDR is within a few percentage points of its highs versus the dollar in January, having surged al-

most 5% on the week. AUD and NZD are both up almost 5% this week as well, while Japanese yen was

the only currency to post a decline in the region this week. India’s largest lender (SBI) reported profits

for calendar Q1 were up substantially as provisions for loan loss fell almost 20%. The stock surged by

the most since mid-March and is at the best levels since the end of April as India’s lockdown starts to

ease.

Europe Markets: Breadth is 5:2 positive on the STOXX 600, which is up 1.2% on the day amidst +3%

gains for Banks (surging with German 10 year yields that are back above –30 bps and credit spreads

plunging), Oil & Gas (reflecting further gains for crude benchmarks and improving consumer demand),

Travel & Leisure (flying after American Airlines, AAL, announced re-opening of capacity for the summer

amidst higher-than-expected demand), and Autos & Parts (fueled by Renault’s joint-best 10 day gain in

history; the stock is up 46.6%, the same as the gains closing March 23 of 2009). German stimulus

spending, ECB monetary support, and the

focus on EU fiscal capacity last week have

all served to fuel epic surges in EUR as-

sets. EURCHF has had the best 10-day gain

since 2017, Italian 10 year spreads are

within 30 bps of their 52-week lows, while

investment grade CDS spreads have re-

versed 80% of their total widening from

Q1. Over the past year, the DAX has been

a leader in European equities, but as

shown in the chart at left there’s been a

lot of recent participation for across Euro-

zone equity indices more generally.

European Equities % vs STOXX 600: Past Year

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

DAX (Germany)FSTE MIB (Italy)FTSE 100 (UK)CAC 40 (France)IBEX 35 (Spain)

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global







5

Germany Factory Orders: Today Germany’s federal statistical agency updated monthly new order vol-

umes for German industry. Unsurprisingly, the numbers for April were bad, with total orders down 33%

MoM to the lowest levels since early 2009. Every category of the report was down on both a MoM and

YoY basis, as shown in the table below. Obviously, this data from April was very bad, but with the DAX

all the way back to within 10% of 52-week highs and outperforming the S&P 500 by 17.7% since mid-

May, it’s hard to argue the bad data baked in matters whatsoever to equity markets’ thinking at this

point.

Morning Commentary

Industry MoM

3m/3m

Ann. YoY MoM

3m/3m

Ann. YoY MoM

3m/3m

Ann. YoY

Textiles -17.58 -17.45 -22.28 -32.27 -27.76 -29.43 -25.53 -23.11 -25.97

Apparel -28.26 -34.04 -30.93 -40.02 -59.50 -43.74 -32.52 -44.75 -35.66

Paper -10.22 8.21 -10.13 -20.82 -16.95 -19.08 -14.83 -3.27 -13.97

Chemicals -14.76 4.38 -12.11 -20.36 11.11 -12.43 -18.29 8.41 -12.35

Pharma -6.41 20.98 -2.81 -5.42 14.45 -8.29 -5.72 16.33 -6.72

Basic Metals -31.66 -27.85 -28.12 -36.55 -20.35 -34.29 -33.84 -24.81 -30.88

Fabricated Metals -32.54 -28.27 -35.24 -41.58 -43.50 -48.66 -35.60 -33.91 -40.09

Computers/Electronic -19.93 -2.80 -14.12 -20.03 -3.19 -16.51 -20.02 -3.09 -15.69

Electrical Equipment -20.20 -14.84 -21.15 -23.05 -33.71 -23.61 -21.71 -25.13 -22.42

Other Machinery/Equipment -21.21 -26.58 -24.60 -36.47 -32.48 -35.34 -31.19 -30.45 -31.47

Motor Vehicles/Trailers -59.40 -68.83 -59.36 -61.58 -58.68 -60.88 -60.82 -62.54 -60.36

Autos -56.36 -74.80 -56.60 -69.70 -58.99 -68.48 -66.40 -63.96 -65.43

Other Transport -57.17 4.13 -50.56 -42.21 -80.16 -72.09 -49.10 -68.84 -66.36

Total -32.96 -32.73 -32.55 -39.60 -39.03 -40.17 -36.90 -36.61 -37.09

Germany New Factory Order Volumes By IndustryDomestic Foreign Total

MoM %

-32.96

-39.60

-36.90

German Factory Orders In Free Fall

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

Total

Domestic

Foreign








6

Coronavirus: No material change to COVID-19 num-

bers for today. On a global basis, the daily change in

new cases and deaths has been stable. In the US, the

average number of new cases in the US ex NY and NJ

has plateaued around 20K and is not declining.

Testing continues to trend higher while the positivity

rate remains near its lowest levels around 4.5%.

We have updated our regular charts on this page as

well as the data tables on the next two pages.

Morning Commentary

Deaths Day Over Day (w/ 7 Day Moving Avg)

Global Cases & Deaths

New Confirmed Cases Per Day (w/ 7 Day Moving Avg)

US Test Count Versus Positive Test Rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day/Day Cases (%)

Day/Day Deaths (%)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

US Case Count Day/Day

Ex NY/NJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

US Deaths Day/Day

Ex NY/NJ

465,497

4.47

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000 Day/Day Tests

% Positive In Each Day's Reported Tests

Daily New Reported COVID Hospitalizations

-1500

-500

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

Day/Day Change InHospital Admissions(Ex NY/NJ)

7 Day Avg

Breadth of COVID-19 Improvement Stats Across States

Note: both metrics are based on the change in the 7 day moving average, for the date in

question and versus the day one week before.

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 Number of States w/ Rising Cases (Left)

Number of States w/ Rising Positive Rate (Left)

Change In Cases (National, Right)

Change In Cases (Ex NY/NJ, Right)








7

COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-

ence. We will update it daily on this page.

Morning Commentary

State

AK 0 0 13 9 1,732 529 0.73 0.00 0.00 17.18 12.69 2,368.18 722.93

AL 9 0 395 -61 4,974 725 7.93 1.84 0.06 80.47 -12.50 1,014.44 147.89

AR 3 2 218 64 3,368 565 6.48 1.04 0.57 72.38 21.25 1,116.13 187.08

AZ 20 6 713 363 6,692 2,222 10.65 2.73 0.88 97.94 49.89 919.33 305.27

CA 64 3 2,587 373 56,016 3,240 4.62 1.62 0.07 65.48 9.44 1,417.69 82.00

CO 15 1 328 46 4,868 938 6.73 2.53 0.22 56.88 8.01 845.35 162.86

CT 26 -9 240 -96 6,571 989 3.65 7.25 -2.52 67.32 -26.89 1,843.17 277.36

DE 6 2 82 -30 1,301 -22 6.31 6.01 1.91 84.36 -30.81 1,336.20 -22.15

FL 35 3 985 327 22,213 2,588 4.44 1.63 0.14 45.88 15.22 1,034.23 120.50

GA 26 -3 682 16 7,384 -8,488 9.24 2.49 -0.31 64.27 1.51 695.42 -799.48

HI 0 0 1 0 705 35 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.30 497.62 24.42

IA 11 -3 319 -24 4,572 805 6.97 3.44 -1.00 101.06 -7.74 1,449.01 255.10

ID 0 -1 37 5 847 135 4.37 0.08 -0.32 20.65 2.71 472.72 75.17

IL 79 -4 1,275 -603 21,721 -842 5.87 6.20 -0.33 100.63 -47.59 1,714.15 -66.47

IN 23 1 433 -15 6,135 522 7.05 3.46 0.17 64.25 -2.21 911.33 77.56

KS 2 -1 119 5 3,366 1,469 3.53 0.83 -0.49 40.85 1.72 1,155.53 504.09

KY 8 5 233 103 9,558 5,982 2.43 1.85 1.09 52.06 22.96 2,139.27 1,338.86

LA 20 5 394 66 8,023 930 4.91 4.39 0.98 84.81 14.20 1,725.76 200.14

MA 80 10 1,024 337 8,945 254 11.45 11.53 1.42 147.35 48.45 1,287.08 36.49

MD 24 -16 878 -4 8,880 1,076 9.89 3.95 -2.67 145.30 -0.69 1,468.82 178.05

ME 2 0 37 -8 1,505 313 2.44 1.17 0.00 27.31 -5.85 1,119.30 232.74

MI 32 -3 318 -40 14,932 4,849 2.13 3.19 -0.29 31.86 -3.96 1,495.18 485.51

MN 21 -1 475 -203 7,202 -177 6.60 3.77 -0.25 84.25 -36.00 1,277.03 -31.36

MO 11 5 198 7 6,799 1,997 2.91 1.84 0.77 32.21 1.19 1,107.82 325.33

MS 14 -2 313 5 4,123 -774 7.58 4.85 -0.58 105.03 1.82 1,385.49 -259.97

MT 0 0 8 7 1,121 226 0.69 0.00 -0.13 7.22 6.42 1,049.13 211.19

NE 3 0 270 5 2,754 276 9.81 1.77 -0.07 139.58 2.66 1,423.47 142.90

NC 19 3 936 286 13,301 1,223 7.04 1.81 0.30 89.27 27.27 1,268.24 116.64

ND 2 1 32 -9 1,070 74 3.00 2.25 1.12 42.18 -11.62 1,404.09 96.54

NH 6 1 73 13 1,716 88 4.24 4.41 0.95 53.48 9.56 1,262.03 64.40

NJ 81 2 674 -233 24,553 4,327 2.74 9.15 0.18 75.83 -26.18 2,764.31 487.15

NM 7 0 127 -7 4,779 22 2.65 3.13 0.00 60.50 -3.20 2,279.16 10.29

NV 3 -1 126 -10 4,319 -939 2.92 1.07 -0.23 40.91 -3.29 1,402.20 -304.95

NY 59 -33 1,200 -268 59,463 13,501 2.02 3.02 -1.67 61.69 -13.77 3,056.68 694.03

OH 34 -3 481 -54 11,034 2,329 4.36 2.95 -0.26 41.15 -4.66 943.97 199.27

OK 3 -1 91 7 4,188 -655 2.17 0.65 -0.14 23.00 1.70 1,058.39 -165.60

OR 1 0 55 17 2,809 749 1.97 0.27 0.07 13.14 4.03 666.06 177.55

PA 63 -9 645 -19 9,094 674 7.10 4.95 -0.67 50.42 -1.47 710.34 52.63

RI 11 -6 119 -13 3,651 1,223 3.25 10.65 -5.66 112.06 -12.41 3,446.55 1,154.33

SC 8 -1 317 86 6,943 656 4.56 1.53 -0.22 61.51 16.76 1,348.52 127.38

SD 1 1 65 -13 1,942 839 3.34 1.61 0.65 73.31 -14.37 2,195.52 948.07

TN 6 0 492 103 8,593 678 5.72 0.94 0.04 71.94 15.12 1,257.50 99.16

TX 24 1 1,449 377 23,620 4,614 6.14 0.82 0.02 49.98 12.99 814.58 159.14

UT 2 0 270 121 3,429 481 7.88 0.49 -0.13 84.31 37.65 1,069.44 150.03

VA 15 -19 922 -116 9,464 -346 9.74 1.79 -2.21 108.04 -13.54 1,108.73 -40.55

VT 0 0 7 4 955 176 0.78 0.00 -0.23 11.90 6.41 1,529.79 281.83

WA 6 -3 297 110 5,932 1,226 5.00 0.75 -0.34 38.98 14.41 779.04 161.02

WI 11 2 417 -24 10,502 1,845 3.97 1.86 0.32 71.59 -4.20 1,803.66 316.80

WV 1 0 27 -18 2,248 1,068 1.18 0.32 0.00 14.87 -10.15 1,257.71 597.52

WY 0 0 6 -7 547 -70 1.07 0.49 -0.49 10.12 -11.35 945.13 -121.20

USA 899 -66 21,402 20,797 440,458 465,497 4.47 2.74 -0.20 65.33 63.48 1,344.52 1,420.95

Week

Change

Raw Count (7 Day Average) Per 1mm Population

COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 6/4/2020)7 Day +ve

Test Rate

(%)

Week

Change

Week

Change

Week

Change

Week

Change

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Tests

Day/Day

Deaths

Day/Day

Deaths

Day/Day

Cases

Day/Day

Tests

Day/Day








8

COVID By State: Below we show 7 day moving averages for case counts and test counts, by state.

These tables are meant for quick reference. A high and rising case count in the first table isn’t neces-

sarily a bad thing if it comes with a falling positive rate; that implies higher test counts are being driven

more by better surveillance rather than disease spread. The worst-case scenario is high/accelerating

case counts with rising positive rates.

Morning Commentary

State Trend Cases State Trend Cases

TN Rising 0 100 492 MN Falling 14 66 475

NC Rising 0 100 936 IN Falling 32 64 433

AZ Rising 0 100 713 NE Falling 29 61 270

SC Rising 0 100 317 IA Falling 35 61 319

UT Rising 0 100 270 WV Falling 55 59 27

CA Rising 1 99 2587 CO Rising 36 53 328

KY Rising 2 98 233 OH Falling 44 52 481

AR Rising 1 98 218 IL Falling 30 50 1275

MS Falling 8 97 313 SD Falling 47 50 65

TX Rising 1 97 1449 MA Rising 41 45 1024

AK Rising 58 94 13 ND Falling 14 44 32

VA Falling 8 87 922 KS Falling 30 40 119

WI Falling 9 86 417 PA Falling 54 39 645

AL Falling 7 83 395 DE Falling 37 35 82

MD Falling 29 82 878 MT Rising 63 35 8

FL Rising 57 81 985 ID Rising 60 32 37

GA Rising 52 80 682 RI Falling 39 31 119

NV Falling 61 79 126 MI Falling 59 28 318

MO Rising 53 77 198 LA Rising 58 25 394

NM Rising 30 75 127 CT Falling 40 22 240

ME Falling 9 75 37 WY Falling 36 19 6

OR Rising 64 74 55 NJ Falling 58 18 674

NH Rising 28 72 73 VT Rising 56 18 7

WA Rising 64 72 297 NY Falling 55 12 1200

OK Rising 58 70 91 HI Rising 57 4 1

State Trend State Trend

TN Rising No 0.4 5.7 MN Falling No -2.0 6.6

NC Rising No 0.7 7.0 IN Falling Yes -0.9 7.1

AZ Rising No 0.9 10.7 NE Falling No -1.1 9.8

SC Rising No 0.3 4.6 IA Falling No -1.5 7.0

UT Rising No 1.3 7.9 WV Falling No -2.1 1.2

CA Rising No 0.0 4.6 CO Falling No -1.6 6.7

KY Falling No -2.3 2.4 OH Falling No -1.7 4.4

AR Rising No 0.0 6.5 IL Falling Yes -1.6 5.9

MS Rising No 1.0 7.6 SD Falling No -3.1 3.3

TX Rising No 0.1 6.1 MA Rising No 4.3 11.4

AK Rising No 0.2 0.7 ND Falling No -0.9 3.0

VA Falling No -0.7 9.7 KS Falling No -3.5 3.5

WI Falling Yes -0.9 4.0 PA Falling Yes -1.0 7.1

AL Falling No -3.3 7.9 DE Falling No -2.1 6.3

MD Falling No -1.5 9.9 MT Rising No 0.3 0.7

FL Rising No 0.7 4.4 ID Rising No 0.1 4.4

GA Rising No 5.1 9.2 RI Falling Yes -2.1 3.3

NV Rising No 0.4 2.9 MI Falling Yes -1.5 2.1

MO Falling Yes -0.9 2.9 LA Falling No 0.0 4.9

NM Rising No 0.0 2.7 CT Falling No -2.1 3.7

ME Falling No -1.2 2.4 WY Falling Yes -0.7 1.1

OR Falling No -0.2 2.0 NJ Falling Yes -1.5 2.7

NH Falling No -0.1 4.2 VT Rising No 0.4 0.8

WA Falling No 0.0 5.0 NY Falling Yes -1.0 2.0

OK Rising No 0.5 2.2 HI Falling No 0.0 0.2

COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 6/4/20

New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory

% of

Peak

Days Since

Peak

Days Since

Peak

% of

Peak

COVID-19 Positive Test Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 6/4/20

At Low?

WoW

Change At Low?

WoW

ChangePositive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory

Positive

Rate

Positive

Rate








9

US Markets: After ADP reported much smaller job losses than expected earlier in the week, there’s a

feeling that the Employment Situation Report might show a less dramatic shock to the labor market

today, while the Federal Reserve also reports consumer credit lending numbers for April in the after-

noon. To stay on top of all the latest reports, make sure to check out our Interactive Earnings Calen-

dar. You can also follow US and Global data with our Economic Scorecard.

Morning Commentary

Change Change

Asset Level Since Fri. 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Since Fri. 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 3136.50 83.6 -188.2 Gold 1710.20 -99.6 -188.2

Russell 1474.70 153.5 -338.1 Silver 17.86 -111.3 -338.1

VIX Fut 26.05 -252.6 863.5 WTI 38.37 256.6 863.5

TSX 927.70 0.0 374.6 Copper 253.40 178.8 374.6

2 Year 20.02 0.6 4.0 Nikkei 22863.73 74.0 450.6

5 Year 42.78 1.9 12.4 CSI 300 4001.25 47.9 347.1

10 Year 87.01 4.7 21.8 ASX 200 5998.72 11.5 422.2

30 Year 169.11 5.9 28.5 STOXX 600 370.41 113.6 572.3

2s10s 66.79 4.2 18.1 BBG USD 1206.63 -38.6 -174.9

5s30s 126.17 4.0 16.0 EURUSD 1.1341 2.6 216.2

5 Yr BE 92.78 3.3 91.9 USDJPY 109.20 4.6 127.1

10 Yr BE 123.75 2.6 122.6 EM FX 55.99 24.9 222.4

Jun '20 99.69 0.0 -931.2 CDX IG 70.19 -3.1 -7.2

Sep '20 99.70 -0.5 -1447.9 iTraxx IG 61.70 -3.5 -10.4

Dec '20 99.67 -0.5 -1600.6 CDX HY 453.45 -2.0 -86.4

Mar '21 99.75 -0.5 -1600.9 iTraxx HY 359.21 -3.3 -68.5

Euro

do

llar

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Cre

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Bespoke Major Asset Class Dashboard

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Futs

Co

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Trsy

Yie

lds

Int'

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https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/

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japan k e china germany uk k...8:30 non farm payrolls -8000k 5/8 -22000 -20537 1463 1.69 ener hc...

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