japan and the united states: price developments · 12/6 12/9 12/12 13/3 13/6 13/9 13/12 14/3 14/6...
TRANSCRIPT
Chart 1
Japan and the United States: Price Developments
(1) Japan
(2) United States
Note: Figures for Japan exclude the direct effects of the consumption tax hike after April 2014. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bank of Japan; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPI (less fresh food and energy)
CPI (less fresh food; core CPI)
CPI (headline)
y/y % chg.
CY
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
PCE (headline)
PCE (core)
y/y % chg.
CY 2005
Chart 2
Japan and the United States: Long-Term Inflation Expectations
(1) Japan
(2) United States
Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts"; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bloomberg.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
89 93 97 01 05 09 13
Economists (Consensus Forecasts)
CPI (headline)Inflation expectations (one year ahead)Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
CY 1989
y/y % chg.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
95 99 03 07 11 15
y/y % chg.
Economists (Consensus Forecasts)
PCE (headline)
Inflation expectations (one year ahead)
Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
CY 1995 -4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
05 07 09 11 13
Inflation swap rate
Implied five-yearforward rate, fiveyears ahead
%
2005/12
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 09 11 13 15
Inflation swap rate
Implied five-yearforward rate, fiveyears ahead
CY 2007
%
Chart 3
Japan and the United States: Households' Short- and Long-Term Inflation Expectations (Median)
Sources: Bank of Japan; University of Michigan, "Surveys of Consumers."
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06/6 07/6 08/6 09/6 10/6 11/6 12/6 13/6 14/6 15/6
y/y % chg. Japan
Five years ahead
One year ahead
2006/6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
05/1 06/1 07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 15/1
y/y % chg.United States
Over the next five to ten years
Over the next year
2005/1
Chart 4
Japan: Households' Present Perceived Inflation (Median)
Notes: 1. Present perceived inflation is defined as present perceived price changes relative to one year ago.
2. Figures for the headline CPI exclude the direct effects of the consumption tax hike after April 2014. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bank of Japan.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06/6 07/6 08/6 09/6 10/6 11/6 12/6 13/6 14/6 15/6
y/y % chg.
Headline CPI
Present perceived inflation
2006/6
Chart 5
Japan and the United States: Households' DIs on Income and Prices
Notes: 1. Income DI = "will increase" - "will decrease." 2. Price DI = "will increase" - "will decrease."
Notes: 1. Income DI = "expect increase" - "expect down." 2. Price DI = "will go up" - "down."
Sources: Bank of Japan; University of Michigan, "Surveys of Consumers."
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
06/6 07/6 08/6 09/6 10/6 11/6 12/6 13/6 14/6 15/6
% pointsJapan (one year ahead)
Income DI
Price DI
2006/6
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
05/1 06/1 07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 15/1
% pointsUnited States (over the next year)
Price DI
Income DI
2005/1
Chart 6
United States: Households' Expected Changes in Income over the Next Year (Median)
Source: University of Michigan, "Surveys of Consumers."
Chart 7
United States: Households' Expected Changes in Income and Prices by Income Group over the Next Year (Median)
Source: University of Michigan, "Surveys of Consumers."
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
12/6 12/9 12/12 13/3 13/6 13/9 13/12 14/3 14/6 14/9 14/12 15/3 15/6 15/9
Household income
Income, bottom thirdIncome, top thirdAll
y/y % chg., three-month moving average
2012/6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
12/6 12/9 12/12 13/3 13/6 13/9 13/12 14/3 14/6 14/9 14/12 15/3 15/6 15/9
Prices
Income, bottom thirdIncome, top thirdAll
y/y % chg., three-month moving average
2012/6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
05/1 06/1 07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 15/1
y/y % chg.
Monthly data
Three-month moving average
2005/1
Chart 8
United States: Households' Probability Expectations on Real Income Gains over the Next Five Years
Source: University of Michigan, "Surveys of Consumers."
Chart 9
Japan: DIs on Households' Tolerance to Price Rises and Present Perceived Inflation
Notes: 1. Price rise tolerance DI = ("price rise is rather favorable" and "price decline is rather unfavorable" respondent ratio - "price rise is rather unfavorable" and "price decline is rather favorable" respondent ratio) / (valid respondent ratio - "have remained almost unchanged" respondent ratio).
2. Perception DI of present price levels = ("have gone up significantly" × 1 + "have gone up slightly" × 0.5) - ("have gone down slightly" × 0.5 + "have gone down significantly" × 1).
Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bank of Japan.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
06/6 07/6 08/6 09/6 10/6 11/6 12/6 13/6 14/6 15/6
% points% points
Price rise tolerance DI (left scale)
Perception DI of present price levels (right scale)
2006/6
25
30
35
40
45
50
05/1 06/1 07/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 15/1
mean probability, %
Monthly data
Three-month moving average
2005/1
Chart 10
Japan: Firms' Sales Price Expectations
Notes: 1. Sales price forecast DI = "will rise" - "will fall." 2. The Tankan explicitly asks respondents to disregard the effects of the consumption tax hike.
Source: Bank of Japan.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
05/3 06/3 07/3 08/3 09/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 13/3 14/3 15/3
% pointsFirms' sales price forecast DI (three months ahead)
2005/3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
14/3 14/6 14/9 14/12 15/3 15/6 15/9
Firms' outlook for sales prices (one year ahead)
% chg. from the current level
2014/3
Chart 11
Inflation Targets and Definitions
Source: Each central bank.
Inflation target Introduction year Reference indicator Numerical valueDuration to achievethe target
Target variability
United States Longer-run goal 2012 Headline PCE 2% Long term Fixed
Euro areaDefinition of pricestability
1998 Headline HICP Below but close to 2% Medium term Fixed
Japan Price stability target 2013 Headline CPI 2%Medium tolong term
Fixed
United Kingdom Inflation target 1992 Headline CPI 2% Reasonable time Fixed
Australia Inflation target 1993 Headline CPI 2-3% Medium term Fixed
New Zealand Inflation target 1988 Headline CPI1-3% (with a focus on 2%target midpoint)
Medium term Fixed
South Korea Inflation target 1998 Headline CPI 2.5-3.5% for 2013-15 Pre-fixed termAdjusted everyfew years
Indonesia Inflation target 2000 Headline CPI4.5% ± 1% for 2012-14 and4% ± 1% for 2015
Pre-fixed termAdjusted everyfew years
Thailand Inflation target 2000 Headline CPI 2.5% ± 1.5% Annual Adjusted annually
Philippines Inflation target 2002 Headline CPI3% ± 1% for 2015-16 and3% ± 1% for 2017-18
Pre-fixed termAdjusted everyfew years
China Annual target n.a. Headline CPI Around 3% for 2015 Annual Adjusted annually
Chart 12-1
Asia-Pacific Region: Realized Inflation and Inflation Expectations (1)
Note: The target index is the headline CPI except for 1998 and 1999, when the CPIX (CPI excluding credit services) was used.
Note: The target index is the headline CPI except for the period from 2000 to 2006, when the core CPI was used. Sources: Bloomberg; Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts."
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. Australia
Inflation expectations (one year ahead) Inflation expectations (five years ahead)CPI (headline) Lower rangeUpper range
CY 1995
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. New Zealand
Inflation expectations (one year ahead) Inflation expectations (five years ahead)CPI (headline) CPIXLower range Upper range
CY 1995
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. South Korea
Inflation expectations (one year ahead)Inflation expectations (five years ahead)CPI (headline)CPI (core)Lower rangeUpper range
CY 1995
Chart 12-2
Asia-Pacific Region: Realized Inflation and Inflation Expectations (2)
Note: The target index was the core CPI from 2000 to 2014 and was switched to the headline CPI from 2015.
Sources: Bloomberg; Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts."
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. Thailand
Inflation expectations (one year ahead) Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
CPI (headline) CPI (core)
Lower range Upper range
CY 1995
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. Philippines
Inflation expectations (one year ahead) Inflation expectations (five years ahead)CPI (headline) Lower rangeUpper range
CY 1995
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg.Indonesia
CPI (headline) Lower rangeUpper range Inflation expectations (one year ahead)Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
95 96 97 98 99 00
y/y % chg.
CY 1995
Chart 12-3
Asia-Pacific Region: Realized Inflation and Inflation Expectations (3)
Sources: Bloomberg; Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts."
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 96 97 98 99 00
y/y % chg.
CY 1995
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg.China
Inflation expectations (one year ahead)
Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
CPI (headline)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. Singapore
CPI (headline)
Inflation expectations (one year ahead)
Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
CY 1995
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
y/y % chg. Malaysia
CPI (headline)
Inflation expectations (one year ahead)
Inflation expectations (five years ahead)
CY 1995