january 14 - money morning-the five reasons gold will hit $5,000

8/9/2019 January 14 - Money Morning-The Five Reasons Gold Will Hit $5,000

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January 14, 2010

The Five Reasons Gold Will Hit $5,000By Peter Krauth, Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Let me get right to the point. Gold's going to $5,000 an ounce.

I know that sounds preposterous to most people. In fact, some of you probably think I'm crazy.

But for a whole host of reasons, $5,000 may well end up being a conservative estimate.

So before you start posting comments that I've gone bonkers, hear me out...

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Latest Commentjimbo--republic is a good compny, so is united precious metal refiners.......but
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In 2001, gold traded as low as $255 an ounce. Within eight years, its price had quadrupledtomore than $1,100 an ounce. How many investors thought that was possible, or even likely?Probably not very many.

Yet, it happened.

What's more, since hitting its secular bottom back in 2001, gold has posted a positive return inevery calendar year. So far, the current bull market has been pretty orderly.

During the past 10 years, gold has indeed become the trade of the decade, beating outcommodities, oil, high-grade U.S. corporate bonds, U.S. Treasuries, and yes, U.S. stocks.

A crisp $100 bill invested 10 years ago would today be worth more than $400 in gold, $357 incommodities (as measured by theS&P GSCI Enhanced Total Return Index), $268 in oil, $190 incorporate bonds or U.S. Treasuries, and only $90 in U.S. stocks.

That's right: We're talking about a $10 loss in U.S. stocks over 10 years. Ouch.

Meanwhile, gold has embarked upon a secular upward trend that is far from over. If the 1970'sare any indication, gold's going much, much higher from here.

When U.S. President Richard M. Nixonopted to close the gold window in August 1971, theyellow metal had already risen from its fixed price of $35 an ounce to $42 an ounce. By the timegold peaked in 1980, it had risen to $850, rewarding early investors with a 2,400% return. Myguess is that any such forecast in 1970 would probably have been met with the same kind ofridicule I expect that my current projection could attract.

Granted, there's no guarantee that we're about to duplicate the 1970s. (I could certainly dowithout the disco, bell bottoms and leisure suits). But a s Mark Twain once noted: "History does
http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/richardnixonhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/richardnixonhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_nixongold.htmlhttp://www.discomusic.com/http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/leisure/outfitentire_sm.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/june.asp&usg=__UTzUJji8Eef_zFpGClz7TjwcdJI=&h=350&w=231&sz=10&hl=en&start=2&umhttp://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/http://ads.moneymorning.com/www/delivery/ck.php?oaparams=2__bannerid=339__zoneid=17__cb=82a662e87d__oadest=http://www.moneymorning.com/research-reports/MMR/MMR1209.php?pub=MMR&code=WMMRL405http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/richardnixonhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_nixongold.htmlhttp://www.discomusic.com/http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/leisure/outfitentire_sm.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/june.asp&usg=__UTzUJji8Eef_zFpGClz7TjwcdJI=&h=350&w=231&sz=10&hl=en&start=2&umhttp://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/


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not repeat itself, but it often rhymes."

And that could mean even sweeter returns for gold investors this time around.

In fact, let's crunch a few numbers - just for fun.

Why $5,000 an Ounce Gold Isn't Out of Bounds

To start with, let's take the 1980 peak price of gold - $850 - and adjust it for inflation. Thatwould take the price of gold to $2,400 in present-day terms.

Better still, let's take the 2,400% gain that gold experienced during the 1970s and translate it intopresent-day terms. From the 2001 low of $255 an ounce, a 2,400% gain would take the yellowmetal all the way up to $6,120 an ounce, making my $5,000 price projection seem a lot morereasonable.

But these are just superficial price comparisons. If we look at what the fundamentals are tellingus, it's clear that gold at $1,100 is a long way from its eventual peak, meaning it still appearscheap.

So let's take a closer look.

Five Fundamental Reasons Gold Will Soar

Gold Fundamental No. 1: You Can't Ignore Inflation: The 2008 stock market panic sent stockand commodity prices - including the price of oil - into a tailspin. And that launched the bigdebate about whetherinflationordeflation would ultimately carry the day. Keep in mind thatsince 2001 - under benign price inflation of roughly 2.5% - gold has managed to rise about400%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep short-term rates nearzero through this year, leaving the door open for rampant inflation.

Meanwhile, quantitative easing to shorten the recession has caused America's monetary base toexplode. Starting in October 2008, during a very short span of only four months, the central bankdoubledthe U.S. money supply, going way beyond anything ever attempted in the nation'shistory.

Worldwide, central banks have rolled out an unprecedented $12 trillion worth of stimulusprograms, with most of the money still to be spent.

Make no mistake, inflation will win out over deflation.

Gold Fundamental No. 2: Investment Demand is Exploding: Large institutional investors -hedge funds and pension funds - are making large allocations to gold, as are individual investors.

The proliferation of gold-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bears this out. The SPDR GoldTrust (NYSE: GLD), the world's largest physically backed ETF with 1,100 tons of the lustrousmetal, is the sixth-largest holder of gold bullion. Individual investors have never had an easieravenue for owning gold.
http://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/1376/deflation.htmlhttp://federalreserveonline.org/http://www.google.com/finance?q=gldhttp://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/1376/deflation.htmlhttp://federalreserveonline.org/http://www.google.com/finance?q=gld


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This isn't just merely a U.S. manifestation. According to the World Gold Council, demandadvanced 15% from the second quarter to the third last year.

Asia, with a population that exceeds 2.5 billion inhabitants and a long-standing cultural affinityfor gold, is stoking global demand in a big way. China is overtly encouraging its citizens to buygold and silver, while offering them gold-linked checking accounts. China is primed to overtakeIndia as the world's largest consumer of gold. A quickly developing middle class whosemembers are experiencing rapid escalations in disposable income are a major bullish driver forthe price of gold.

Gold Fundamental No. 3: Central Banks are Becoming Net Buyers: India's recent purchaseof 200 tons ofInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) gold was the likely impetus that pushed goldup over the $1,200 level in December. But more important is the sea changethat has seen centralbanks morph from net sellers into net buyers of gold. BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), one of theworld's largest investment managers, said that 2009 was that turning point. If that was the case, itwill have been the first time in 20 years, as central banks have been net sellers of gold since

1988.

Gold Fundamental No. 4: A Currency Crisis is Looming: The "PIGS" - Portugal, Italy,Greece and Spain (or "PIIGS," if you want to include Ireland) - aren't in very good fiscal shape.And they aren't alone. Iceland has already gone over the edge. The United States, the UnitedKingdom, and countless other economies are struggling. And that reality has ignited a crisis ofconfidence about fiat currencies in the minds of many investors. Money is nothing more thanpaper and ink, backed by the full faith and creditof the issuer. When investors find that theirfaith in the issuer is shaken, the value of that currency erodes. Additional sovereign-debtdowngrades from ratings agencies are but one potential trigger of a currency crisis. Under suchconditions, gold - the ultimate store of value, and the oldest existing form of money on earth -will soar as investors seek to protect their purchasing power.

Gold Fundamental No. 5: We've Yet to Reach the Mania Stage: As we've outlined before, thegold bubble that takes prices to all-time-record levelswill inflate in three distinct stages. Thisprocess will start with currency devaluations in Stage One, will be fueled by growing investmentdemand in Stage Two and will experience its stratospheric ascent in Stage Three, the maniaphase of this evolution.

Make no mistake, the $5,000 price point will most likely be reached in this third and final phase.The price of gold will behave like it is strapped to a jet pack. And today's market prices will bedwarfed by the levels gold prices will ultimately achieve.

Keep in mind, the entire gold industry has an aggregate market capitalization (value) below thatof Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) alone (currently about $210 billion). So as the crowdpiles in, the "big money" to be made will lie with gold explorers and producers, where 1,000%returns will not be uncommon, even from today's prices.

All these fundamentals underscore that gold prices have plenty of room to run from here.
http://www.gold.org/http://www.imf.org/external/index.htmhttp://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BLKhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currencyhttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://www.goldbulletin.org/news/2009/09/30/story/13076/gold_is_ultimate_store_of_value/http://moneymorning.com/2009/07/28/gold-bubble/http://moneymorning.com/2009/07/28/gold-bubble/http://www.google.com/finance?q=wmthttp://www.gold.org/http://www.imf.org/external/index.htmhttp://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BLKhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currencyhttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://www.goldbulletin.org/news/2009/09/30/story/13076/gold_is_ultimate_store_of_value/http://moneymorning.com/2009/07/28/gold-bubble/http://www.google.com/finance?q=wmt


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And since I expect gold will eventually reach the $5,000 range, that leaves plenty of room forinvestors to profit by entering at current levels.

It's Time to Make Your Move

Everyone needs some exposure to gold in their portfolios, no matter their age or risk tolerance.

Owning some physical coins or bars makes sense, but it's complicated to do inside mostretirement accounts.

That's why the explorers and producers of the gold sector promise the biggest payoffs. Althoughproduction costs will rise, as gold prices rise, profit margins are sure to expand even faster. Oncecocktail-party conversations turn to gold, for any one of the reasons I've outlined, gold stockswill erupt and then streak for record highs.

When will this happen? I think it will take a few years. But with bubbles, or speculative frenzies,one never knows. Just this week, in fact, Robert R. McEwen, the chairman and chief executiveofficer of U.S Gold Corp. (AMEX: UXG), predicted that gold could more than quadruple to hitthe $5,000 level by 2012. Some experts have labeled this expected move as a looming"superspike."

When this happens, gold is likely to create a whole new generation of millionaires, and even afew new billionaires. Despite the mania stage being several years away, the wise investorrecognizes both the importance and the potential of investing in gold.

I have no doubt that today's $1,100 gold price level will eventually, in hindsight, look like anoutrageous bargain.

My advice: If you own gold and gold shares, hang onto them and buy more on dips. If you don't,what on earth are you waiting for?

[Editor's Note : Peter Krauth is a contributing editor toMoney Morningand is also theeditor of the Global Resource Alertadvisory service. A highly regarded market analyst andexpert in metals and mining equities, Krauth specializes in energy- and resource-relatedinvestments.

A one-time portfolio advisor, Krauth is now headquartered in resource-rich Canada,where he focuses exclusively on his research. He last wrote about gold's potential to be"The Greatest Trade Ever," and detailed how super-investor John A. Paulson could use hisgold holdings to vault himself to the top of the Forbes billionaire's list.

For more information on profit opportunities in gold and other commodities, check out theGlobal Resource Alert.]

News and Related Story Links:

Money Morning Special Report:Why Gold Will be the "Greatest Trade Ever"
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/officerProfile?symbol=UXG&officerId=673322http://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:UXGhttp://pragcap.com/gold-could-more-than-quadruple-by-2012http://pragcap.com/gold-could-more-than-quadruple-by-2012http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.globalresourcealert.com/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.globalresourcealert.com/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/officerProfile?symbol=UXG&officerId=673322http://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:UXGhttp://pragcap.com/gold-could-more-than-quadruple-by-2012http://pragcap.com/gold-could-more-than-quadruple-by-2012http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.globalresourcealert.com/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://www.globalresourcealert.com/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/http://moneymorning.com/2009/12/28/bull-market-gold/


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Standard & Poor's :Fact Sheet about the S&P GSCI Enhanced Index

WhiteHouse.gov:Richard M. Nixon

DiscoMusic.com:Disco Music of the 1970s and 1980s

The Henry Ford Museum:Leisure Suit

CMG Worldwide:The Official Mark Twain Web Site

InvestorWords.com:Inflation

Wikipedia:Fiat Currency

InvestorWords.com:Deflation

Federal Reserve System Online:Official Web Site

Wikipedia:PIGS

World Gold Council:Official Web Site

International Monetary Fund:Official Web Site

The Free Dictionary (Legal Dictionary):Full Faith and Credit Clause

The Pragmatic Capitalist:Gold Could More Than Quadruple By 2012

The Gold Bulletin:Gold is the Ultimate Store of Value

Money Morning Investment Research Report:The Three Triggers of the Global Gold Bubble

Money Morning News Analysis:Gold to Continue its Record Run as Central Banks Stock Up

28 Responses1. Fazsha |January 14, 2010

Gold will not go to $5,000 an ounce, and anyone who thinks so is crazy.
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/richardnixonhttp://www.discomusic.com/http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/leisure/outfitentire_sm.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/june.asp&usg=__UTzUJji8Eef_zFpGClz7TjwcdJI=&h=350&w=231&sz=10&hl=en&start=2&umhttp://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/http://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currencyhttp://www.investorwords.com/1376/deflation.htmlhttp://federalreserveonline.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics)http://www.gold.org/http://www.imf.org/external/index.htmhttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:UXGhttp://www.goldbulletin.org/news/2009/09/30/story/13076/gold_is_ultimate_store_of_value/http://moneymorning.com/2009/07/28/gold-bubble/http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline;+filename=SP_GSCI_Enhanced_Index_Factsheet.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=applichttp://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/richardnixonhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/richardnixonhttp://www.discomusic.com/http://www.discomusic.com/http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/leisure/outfitentire_sm.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/june.asp&usg=__UTzUJji8Eef_zFpGClz7TjwcdJI=&h=350&w=231&sz=10&hl=en&start=2&umhttp://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/leisure/outfitentire_sm.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits/pic/2004/june.asp&usg=__UTzUJji8Eef_zFpGClz7TjwcdJI=&h=350&w=231&sz=10&hl=en&start=2&umhttp://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/http://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/http://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currencyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currencyhttp://www.investorwords.com/1376/deflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/1376/deflation.htmlhttp://www.investorwords.com/1376/deflation.htmlhttp://federalreserveonline.org/http://federalreserveonline.org/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics)http://www.gold.org/http://www.gold.org/http://www.gold.org/http://www.imf.org/external/index.htmhttp://www.imf.org/external/index.htmhttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Full+Faith+and+Credit+Clausehttp://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:UXGhttp://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:UXGhttp://www.goldbulletin.org/news/2009/09/30/story/13076/gold_is_ultimate_store_of_value/http://www.goldbulletin.org/news/2009/09/30/story/13076/gold_is_ultimate_store_of_value/http://moneymorning.com/2009/07/28/gold-bubble/http://moneymorning.com/2009/07/28/gold-bubble/http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/05/gold-central-banks/


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Its going to $8,000. Gold in private and government hands is worth about $5 trillioncompared to global M3 money supply of $60 trillion. Gold would have to sell at $32,128per ounce vs. $1,140 today to replace the global M2 money supply dollar-for-dollar.While it wont get to 100% backing, I could easily see it getting to 25-50% backing.

Reply

Terry |January 16, 2010If you think that gold will get to those levels, AND an individual will not beallowed to have ONE oz. of it..you have more trust in the Fascistsystem we have in the process of being built now, than anyone familiar with thesystem.

We will be robbed blind, at every turn, because were broke.And getting more so, day by day.

Where do you think their coming first for more?.

You will be paid a pittance,( just like FDRs theft) and required to turn it over, orelse.

I would love it, if we had an honest system, and men & women were truly paidfor what the worked diligently, and long hours for.

Sadly, after watching whats been done to our SS/MC/MA systems..I see nohope for any honesty, or getting your just rewards for making SMART investents.

Reply2. Wayne |January 15, 2010

gold will hit 1500 before summer, and 2000 before 2011 and if there are national orinternational catastrophes in this year then it will go up even faster and a higher price.One big scandal not even remotely resolved will be the tungsten gold plated covered bars,a discovery made last autumn but only recently released to the public, many millionaires

and billionaires are franticaly testing their gold to see just how much they were cheatedand sadly deducting their total worth because of the deep pervasive irreparably c orruptdishonesty of the US fed govt. Another big threatening unresolved problem no one knowsnow just how much gold is in the world and how much the official count is off because ofthe tungsten bar scandal, and with dropping world production and increasing demandthere could be much less gold in the world available than offically listed. The senior viceof the NYM exchange has taken leave and cannot be found and it is his office that thenumbers of these bars are kept by mandate of federal law so this scandal involved thehighest echelons of the US fed govt and by the numbers these bars could be traced to themint or depository that made them thus implicating names, big names like Klintun Rubinand Greenspan . Thats the kind of govt we have folks.endless senseless wars whichtake our finest and best costing us billions, invasions of other countrys later publicly

admitted to been contrived lies and now they take our gold, remember theres not been anaudit of Ft Knox since the 1950s there could be nothing there or it could be filled withtungsten 1/8 inch gold covered bars counterfeited years ago,, if our gold is indeed goneand this turns out to be true then who took our gold and where is it now and will thecriminals be brought to justice?????

Reply Jimbo |January 15, 2010
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Waynetheres a reputable company in Miami called Republic Metals withwhom ive had positive experiences trading Krugerrands

Reply boatman | March 29, 2010

jimborepublic is a good compny, so is united precious metal

refiners.but coins are too high premiumed..9999 gold is 9999gold..jewelers bars is the way to go

Reply3. bobdin |January 15, 2010

I agree in general with you renationalisation of the gold situation. While our currentadministration continues to recklessly spend like a college kid with a new card, ourHistoric Deficit grows by the day. While Washington DC can print money by the ton,they cant print gold. Congress and the White House seem to be obsessed with spendingmoney we dont have. They continue to print currency backed by only a promise and aretaking reckless advantage that we are no longer on the gold standard. This weakens theUS Dollar and gold will go up accordingly. While it may not reach $5000 it will be closeto it as it is apparent the spending will continue.

Reply4. colin andrew|January 15, 2010

I read your your report of the coming future boom in gold prices, I have for around thelast five years believed that this would happen, because I could see all around me peoplewith little means at there disposal, living beyond there means on credit, the banks werethrowing money at everyone, people would borrow and borrow, and the banks said herehave some more, and when they could not pay there repayments, the banks said to themhere have some more so you can pay us back, Well I did not have to be a Sherlock Holmsto realise that something had to crack in the end, so over the last five years I have bought

Soveriegns, and now have over 400, I bought many of them when the price was very low,my problem is where to sell them when the price reaches $2500, by the way I am stillpurchasing them any ideas, chears and happy neaw year. Colin

Reply Terry |January 16, 2010

Why would you sell, and why would you turn over REAL MONEY, for FIATCURRENCY?.The ONLY thing in the next 18-36 months I would let Gold go for, isTANGIBLE items, of value.Another item you may want to think about, is since you bought a quanity (of anitem that is scarce, and expensive now), why not sell , and increase you holdings

NOWbefore the prices go exponental possibly?.You have approx 100oz. of physical metal(with high premiums),and a low buyinPut it on paper, and see what I mean.

Reply5. g. stein |January 15, 2010


9/20

hi yes i like this report very much. lets hope for all of us gold coin investers.this willbecome a reallityhave a good investing day g.s.

Reply6. GOLDInvestor|January 15, 2010

Who is controlling the world gold prices? Just speculators at NYMEX. we observed from

kitco graphs that all big changes that is upward or down side coming during NYMEXhours and world follows the few speculators seating in New York. Well ! they are usingcontrarian strategy to drive market completely reverse. As long as they have shortpositions, or will short none of the reason will work to drive gold price to high. seemsthey are so powerful and welthy guys, drives market oneside they decide(Generallyreverse than public thinking!). That is the only reason now, pray these guys start buyingtheir positions, none of the fundamental will help but just they will drive market onesideas they wish. Bubble will burst as soon as they achieve their target so public has fearwhen they will dropp it? ( As we all know happend with Oil from 143$ to 33$). Is thereany way we know the smart welthy guys move?? if yes, we are in the business and thatwill be the world best analysis. Let us hope you might have some connection with

NYMEX guys and we get the recommendation in time/ before time of their moves. Allthe best to all investors like me!!!

Reply7. Safe Dad|January 15, 2010

When morale and sentiment are low gold will go up. I am amazed, shocked that overallAmerican enthusiasm has diminished so quickly. Living in Canada and attending our ourannual CFA dinner I always enjoyed that American Overlord bluster versus thatCanadian we should try harder mentality in our economists showdown. But the last 2years the Americans have become meek and whiney I am surprised that I miss thatoverbearing pomposity that America is famous for. We want America to be great and wewant you to act like Americans when gold goes up dramatically means America is

going down dont let that happen. Although gold production, sales and process is goodfor Canada.

Reply8. Anna |January 15, 2010

What is the best form of gold to buy? I have never bought

Reply Terry |January 16, 2010

Bullon coins, 1oz. ( IMHO)Least premiums over anything but Bars, but universally accepted.Easily recognized.

DO Not get caught in the Nuimismatic, Semi Nuimismatic trap, unless your filthyrich.And folks who think/sell these telling customers that Gubmint will not everconfiscate those, dream on.Bars, are not the best way, as they will be required to be assayed before yopusell.adds more expense to them, in the end.( esp 10-400) sized bars.

Reply9. Tom Gill|January 15, 2010


10/20

Peter Krauthwhile I appreciate your column and history of experience, I find itamusing that you cite Robert R. McEwen of UXG as being bullish on the future price ofgold going forward when he just a few days ago sold over 9,000,000 million shares of hisown stock in UXG

Reply

10.H. Craig Bradley |January 15, 2010ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT GOLD

Every night on Fox News there are buy gold now ads featuring Gordon Libby (ofWatergate fame). Seems to me we are actually closer to the the mania phase thanotherwise believed. When gold is the subject of such hard sells one has to questionwhether gold is truly priced for value.

Instead, gold remains a speculative asset (commodity). As such, it is subject to muchvolatility. Put another way, gold takes the stairway up and the elevator down. So, if youbuy gold ETFs or physical gold, there is the matter of market timing. Few individualinvestors will ever get in at exactly the right time and get out at the right time (price). So,if you are not good at market timing, then you are competing against seasonedcommodity traders, who are apt to hand you your head. Even if you get lucky, there isthe seldom mentioned tax consequences.

As Keith Fitz-Gerald already wrote here, the IRS does not consider gold in any form tobe an investment. Instead, gold is a collectible for Federal Income Tax purposes.Gold is currently taxed at the Capital Gains Tax rate of 28%. There are no short-term orlong-term Capital Gains Tax Rates, just a standard rate for all collectibles. Then there isstate income taxes, another -10% off your gains from gold. So, plan on subtracting -40%from your gold trading profits. To make money after commissions or fees, gold must goup alot from here, hence the hard selling I have observed.

One more risk, there is no guarantee that the Federal government will permit individual

investors to own gold indefinately. In 1933, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signedan Executive Order (EO) forbiding the general public from owning gold and required allindividuals to turn in their gold at a fixed exchange rate for dollars. If President Obamawere to sign a similar order in the future, it could include a prohibition on gold ETFs(GLD) as well. So, you would have to buy gold and store it in a Swiss Account, far fromthe reach of Federal authorities. Remember too, a buy transaction is not a taxableevent, only a sell.

Reply11.Jonathan |January 15, 2010

I hope for all your sakes gold does hit this projection, but forgive me if I remainskeptical. Gold is a shiny metal that comes out of the ground. It has very few industrial

uses, is used for jewelry trinkets and is NOT tied to any currency anywhere. Saying it is ahedge against inflation is like saying Monet paintings are a hedge against inflation. If wewere still on the gold standard, it would be a hedge against inflation because each dollarwould have a corresponding slliver of gold somewhere in a vault. The Fed/Treasury hasabout doubled our money supply in dollar bills without a corresponding doublling of thegold supply. Has the price of gold doubled?? If the price of jewelry gets too high peoplewill stop buying it and then we are left with a few industrial uses, which will likewisefind a substitute if prices get too high. Why not buy Monet paintings to hedge inflation?


11/20

In fact, that might make more sense since there are only so many and no new being made,unlike gold which is continuing to be mined. You dont buy Monet paintings as a hedge(besides the fact that most of us could not afford them) is because the price depends onpersonal whim and general acclaim. However, if the next generation determines it doesntlike Monets style, then the prices will drop and your inflationary hedge turns into a debtalbatross. The price of gold is going up because public sentiment says it will go up, notfor any sound reason that makes it a reliable hedge against inflation. Articles like this andblogs and radio ads and TV ads all make the price of gold go up, but dont foolyourselves into thinking that it has to do with anything but sentiment, just like amomentum stock. Someday the rocket will run out of fuel (new buyers) and then gravitywill take hold and back down to earth you come. By the way, have you figured out howto buy groceries with your gold stash? No retail places are set up to accept it as legaltender like the old saloons. Good luck, know any good art dealers? Im looking for agood Monet.

Reply12.Aprov |January 15, 2010

Gold may go to $5k, or more, per ounce, but such an event would imply great financialchaos and worldwide stress. So, afterwards, we might see ..

men will cast forth their idols of silver and . gold to enter the caverns . frombefore the terror of the Lord (Isaiah 2:20-21) andThey cast their silver into the streets. their silver and gold are not able to deliver themin the day of the wrath of the Lord; they cannot satisfy their hunger (Ezekiel 7:19)

The power of a one world government, soon to arrive due to financial chaos, will causegreat trouble. Even the most astute investor will fail !

Regards

Reply

13. sushil bhatnagar|January 16, 2010All this hullbulla of gold prices going up etc,am sure the writer owns lots of gold stockshimself, so this propoganda about gold prices goingup. One of the reader rightly said thatits all speculations of NYMEX.They will start this gossips and it will go round and roundand foolish people will turn that gossips into reality,by behaving like sheeps, andstart cornering gold,in turn fueling up the demand and hence the price.But I readsomewhere that Saudi Arabia ,has discovered a whole mountain, which is full of gold andthey have kept it a secret.It will be operational,once their oil reserves are depleted.Itsmillions of tons of gold down there.How much effect it will have on that 5000 dollargolden egg being sold by Peter Krauth ???

Reply

[email protected] |January 20, 2010

you think the Saudis would be foolish enough to release this abundant amount ofgold quickly they would guarantee hold back and drive it higher especiallythem. would you knowingly risk a possible margin loss because you flooded amarket, with product, they as every other business have cost. cost being relativelyfixed, and there return exponential in a market like this.
http://deleted/http://deleted/


12/20

best of all opinions.cheers.

Reply14.Terry |January 16, 2010

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the worlds largest physically backed ETF with 1,100

tons of the lustrous metal, is the sixth-largest holder of gold bullion. Individual investorshave never had an easier avenue for owning gold.

With a National Debt of in excess of 169 Trllion dollaras, and a more immediate debt of14.2 T, I have a question..THE SPDR Trust Fund,..

When the SHTF over the Currency crash(inevitable), do you actually think the SPDR isgoing to allow folks to cash out of their positions and deliver PHYSICAL Gold to them?.

I say,No Way.their going to issue fiat currency for you PROFITS.

So, I guess my question is WHY would anyone invest in a PM fund, knowing they willnever recieve the metals in physical form?.

Reply15.theone |January 17, 2010

All this talk about inflation and gold,, and yet not a single mention of the most amazingmetal of all?? wow.. Silver people wake up and smell the roses Unlike Gold, Silverhas been used in industry for decades,, and each year we have less and less,, industrialdemand has been stripping above ground stock piles for a long time now,, it is predictedthat there is 5 times more gold above ground now then silver.. there are more new usesfor silver each year then all other metals combined, and silver is 60 times cheaper thengold a 60 to 1 ratio,, the historical ratio is 14 to 1 People,, the greatest wealthtransfer in the history of this world will be when the dollars value drops and silvers valueshoots to the moon. if you dont believe me just do some research.. its easy.. thenumbers are out there,, just take a min to look for them

Reply tyler|January 19, 2010

I agree. I originally bought gold and got sucked into the gold market but after Idid some research and studied the facts I sold my gold and bought silver. If golddoes go to five thousand I would expect silver to go to five hundred. An investorwould make way more money with silver. The author missed the real investmentstory in the metals. As for the guy who said we have to pay some forty percent intaxes thats the second time Ive heard that. I dont plan on selling my silver I willbarder it.

Reply16.Prof. Simpleton |January 18, 2010

Q: who controls the world bullion (gold) market?

A: the (Rothtenchilds) & the Gang!

All of you people here including Peter Krauth seemed to be missing the whole point! Andthat is GOLD PRICE Is A Controlled item being manipulated by all the powers-that-


13/20

be (Who (with their vested interests) do you think sit on the (WGC) World GoldCouncil?. Free market my foot! The sooner you people realized this the better.

By right the price of Gold shouldve shot through the stratosphere a very long time ago!But these people depressed it so that they can maximise their profits at their ownwhims and fancies. How?

Im gonna to let you into a little secret that I bet not many of you ordinary folks outthere knows about and are actully oblivious to these facts! Ever heard of the Gold carry-over trade? Yeah! Simply meant : Borrow money cheaply (like the trillions of USDnow floating in the market at almost zero interest!) and invest (the billions which theyALSO controlled thru their owned-Banks) in the bullion market! With the USD downas it is now, the killing would make all the RottenChilds laughing all the way to their(verily-OWNED) Banks for the next 7 generations, at least!

Comprande? Kapisch? (and here we are arguing like fools about this and that blah blahblah!)ehehehehe!!!

n.b. Prof. Simpleton quotes (sic!) Confucius says: Dont get confused!

p.s. anyway, I agree with Peter rgd. the Price of Gold shooting-up (as otherwise how elseare these sharks goin to make their monstrous profits, since they were the ones whomanipulate the whole system for their own benefits, in the 1st. place?!?)

Reply17.K W Foo |January 21, 2010

Gold price should go higher than now, at least to USD 2000 per oz as taking inflation andstock availability into consideration. Moreover, the present situation, all government justpriting money without taking into consideration of their country currency value. Allthings in this world, must return to basis one day. Likewise, the monetary subject. Inthose olden days, gold is used a a form monetary transaction. therefore, one day, gold

will get back to its olden days and being used a monetary tool in the business world. Infact, if one day the gold price shoot up to be more than USD 3000 per oz, I will notsuprise. In fact, waiting for the day. Just to conclude, the quantity of gold being mined isgetting less and less. But the cost of mining is increasing, hence, pushing the price higher.

Reply18.John Kerttu Houghton Michigan |January 25, 2010

Why doesnt gold and silver, and all other commodities, too, keep up with inflation everyyear.If your theory is correct then gold should never fall behind inflation adjusted prices by50% at any time.Yet, each time we have seen a bubble in something, Larry and the other GOLDSELLERS keep saying gold will double or triple in value within two years.I have seen the same thing several times in my 60 years and the GOLD SELLERS arealways wrong about the exact amount gold prices will go up and how many years it willtake.To reach equality at the NEW INFLATION ADJUSTED PRICE FOR ONE OUNCE OFGOLD;HOW MUCH WILL INFLATION BE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS?HOW MUCH MORE WILL MY JOB PAY ME TWO YEARS FROM NOW.


14/20

HOW MUCH WILL THE BASIC NECCESSITIES, FOOD, SHELTER,CLOTHING,TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, COST IN 2014.Look deep into your own crystal balls and come up with a realistic answer.Dec 2009 Larry predicted gold prices would drop to 1080 and then rally. Today gold is$1097.Where will the price of gold be next month or next year.Why did the price of gold drop when the stock market dropped last week?

Reply19.PJN|February 2, 2010

there is a great company that has been very helpful and knowlegdable in the preciousmetals. his analysts have been spot on and the mom and pop service is great. speak topatrick. company name is Yorkshire Bullion. add a .com to the name for the website. hegave me information that hadnt even come out yet and seems to have my best interest inmind and has made me quite a bit of money. i agree that gold will soar and everyoneshould be protected against what is going on

Reply

20.Royce |February 10, 2010

I agree with the comments made about the gold market being fixed by COMEX,NYMEX, etc. The problem with market manipulation though is that it is doomed tofailure eventually. The COMEX may be able to short enough gold into the market totamp down prices some but what about sugar? Coal? Oil? Copper? Cotton? etc. There is aday coming soon when the tide will sweep all this BS away and gold will reset its priceand that probably will be upwards of $5000. Maybe morewho knows how bad inflationis in other sectors by then. My humble recommendation is to by physical metal and shunany proxy like ETFs. I know that many of you use them but they are very likely a tool ofthe suppression scheme. Good luck everyone and for heavens sake buy someKrugerrands or Eagles if you dont have any. Stay away from paper gold and you wont

get burned.Reply

21.thomas bleser|March 25, 2010

Lets not forget the key point you mentioned, and that is before the scratch of a pen by aUS president (RMN) a few score years ago, gold wasnt for speculative sale at ANYprice because a few score years prior to that another scratch of another pen by another USpresident (FDR) had simply made it that way. and we had to solder jewelery loops to ourgold coins and carry them around on our watch fobs (and/or bury it in our basements) tokeep Uncle Sam from confiscating it in what some perceived as his national interest.

Maybe it would be wise to hedge your risk by putting some of that speculative savings

into other kinds of precious metal (copper, silver, platinum, palladium and so on).Reply

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