january 13, 2017 · 2017. 1. 16. · january 13, 2017 week in review canada – in december, the...

January 13, 2017

Week in review

Canada – In December, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ rose 0.3% from the month before on gains in 8 of the 11 regions covered. The monthly advance exceeded the average increase of 0.1% for December since the index’s inception in 1999. Prices were up in Toronto (+1.2%), Victoria (+1.2%), Quebec City (+0.6%), Calgary (+0.6%), Hamilton (+0.4%), Halifax (0.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.3%) and Edmonton (+0.1%). They were down in Montreal (-0.5%), Vancouver (-0.8%) and Winnipeg (-1.2%). On a y/y basis, the index sprang 12.3%, its largest 12-month movement since June 2010, driven by Toronto (+19.7%), Victoria (+17.7%), Hamilton (+17.5%) and Vancouver (+17.0%). The lift was much smaller from Ottawa-Gatineau (+3.6%), Winnipeg (+3.4%), Halifax (+1.5%), Montreal (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.1%). Prices in Quebec City were down 0.7% from a year earlier. National house price inflation has shed momentum in recent months as Vancouver continues to deflate. Canada’s priciest city recorded its third consecutive monthly retreat and more is to come. The price drop so far has been concentrated primarily in dwellings other than condos. This is consistent with the fact that house sales have been falling since peaking in February and that the decline has been concentrated mostly in the detached dwellings segment. Toronto, Hamilton and Victoria are the three regions still pulling the Composite Index upward month after month. Outside Vancouver and these three regions, house prices have been flat in the past six months Still in December, housing starts jumped 10.6% to 207K, well above the 190K expected by consensus. The result was attributable to higher urban starts (+11.8%) as rural starts were roughly level. The increase in urban areas was split between multis (+14%) and single-family homes (+8%). On a regional basis, urban starts were up sharply in Ontario (+37%) and Quebec (+12.5%) and registered a small progression in the Prairies (+1.5%). This more than offset decreases in British Columbia (-10%) and Atlantic Canada (-16%).

In November, building permits were about flat in dollar terms after increasing an upwardly revised 10.5% the prior month. The value of non-residential permits rose 3% propelled by applications for industrial and institutional projects. However, this was offset by a 1.6% decline in the value of residential permits. In real terms, residential permits rose 0.5% as a 3.3% increase for multis more than counterweighed a 4.8% drop for single-family homes. Both housing starts and permit applications were better than anticipated. The increase in real residential building permits suggests residential construction has room to run in the coming months. However, mortgage rules implemented by the federal government last year will take steam out of demand and subsequently out of supply. Consequently, we expect housing starts in 2017 to fall to roughly 180K, a level more in line with demographic needs. The winter edition of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (conducted from November 14 to December 13) showed that the business outlook improved since autumn. Though firms reported no sales growth in the past 12 months, they expected a strong acceleration over the next year. Intentions to invest in machinery and equipment were at their highest in more than two years as the balance of opinion shot up to 24 percentage points. The responses reflected mounting domestic demand, a supportive export outlook and an expected recovery in energy-related activity. Capacity pressures remained roughly unchanged, with only 37% of respondents stating either some or significant difficulty in meeting an unexpected increase in demand. However, the proportion of respondents facing labour shortages increased. Accordingly, hiring intentions improved, as the balance of opinion for future employment jumped to 37 percentage points, its highest mark since 2014Q3. Moreover, firms reported that credit conditions were largely unchanged. This was consistent with the separately released BoC Senior Loan Officer's Survey for Q4 (conducted from December 5 to 9), which showed non-price lending conditions easing slightly and price conditions remaining unchanged. Finally, the BoC stated that access to capital markets was generally unchanged in Q4 for all grades of borrowers.

United States – Retail sales rose 0.6% in December, the prior month was upgraded one tick to +0.2% (from +0.1%). December sales were boosted by a 2.4% jump for motor vehicles/parts. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2%, a bit weaker than consensus which was expecting a +0.5% print. But here too, there was a one-tick upward revision to the prior month to

What we’ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex – Economic tables (A1)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

2

+0.3%. December ex-auto sales got a lift from gasoline station receipts (courtesy of higher than seasonal pump prices), furniture, building materials, health/personal care, sporting goods and another big jump for non-store retailers (+1.3%). Those more than offset declines for sellers of electronics, food/beverage, and general merchandise. Discretionary sales, i.e. sales excluding groceries, gasoline, and personal care products, have been strong in recent months, much in line with solid job creation and sky-high consumer confidence. Non-store retailers continue to increase their share of sales, the latter hitting a record 10.4% in December. With December’s gains, real retail spending grew roughly 3.6% annualized in Q4, consistent with our view U.S. GDP growth in the last quarter of last year was a touch above 2% annualized. Business inventories rose 0.7% in November, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Sales posted a 0.1% gain in the month. This was following gains of 0.7% and 0.8% in the previous two months. The inventories-to-sales ratio rose from 1.37 in October to 1.38 in November The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in December, taking the year-on-year print to 1.6%, the highest in over two years. The PPI increase was partly due to energy (+2.6%) and food (+0.7%). Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose a milder 0.2% driven by increases for both core goods and services. That allowed the year-on-year core PPI to increase to 1.6%. The core PPI was slightly higher than expected. Upstream inflationary pressures seem to be growing based on the PPI, although price increases seem to be under control for now. In December, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed 7.4 points to 105.8, its highest reading since December 2004. Of the 10 index components, seven posted gains, one was unchanged, and two declined. The net percentage of respondents (16%) planning to create jobs over the next three months notched up 1 percentage point from the previous month. The percentage of owners that reported job openings they could not fill was down 2 percentage points to 29%, which still suggested the labour market was tight. In that environment, the net percentage of firms that raised wages in the previous three months was up 5 percentage points to 26%, and a net 20% of firms (up 5 points) indicated that they were planning to increase compensation in the next three months. In November, consumer credit grew by US$24.5 billion, supported by an increase in revolving credit of US$11.0 billion. Again in November, job openings rose 71K to 5.5 million. However, they were down from their peak of 5.8 million reached in April 2016. The quit rate was unchanged at 2.1%. In December, import prices rose 0.4% from the month before. They were up 1.8% from a year earlier, their largest y/y gain since March 2012. Excluding petroleum, which saw a 7.9% price increase, import prices were down 0.2% in the month. Export prices rose 0.3% m/m.

World – In December, the China CPI and PPI pegged in at 2.1% y/y (down from 2.3%) and 5.5% y/y (up from 3.3%), respectively. In the Eurozone, industrial production expanded 1.5% in November after swelling a revised 0.1% the prior month. November retail sales were in line with expectations, shrinking 0.4%. October sales growth was revised up to 1.4% from the 1.1% reported earlier.


What we’ll be watching

3

In Canada, a busy week will feature the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The overnight rate is likely to be left unchanged at 0.50%, although it will be interesting to see the BoC’s new

forecasts for the economy in its updated Monetary Policy Report. Crucial November data on the manufacturing and retail sectors will be available. We expect manufacturing shipments to rise 0.9% during the month, based on a rebound in exports of factory goods during the month. Retail sales likely got a boost from autos in November, although lower gasoline station receipts (courtesy of lower pump prices) will provide an offset. We’re expecting sales to grow 0.7% overall and to be roughly flat ex-autos. December data on the consumer price index will also be released. Trend inflation has been very low in recent months despite a resilient economy. A return to normal of the latter combined with above seasonal gasoline prices should help limit the decline in the CPI to just 0.1% in December (smaller price decline than usual for this time of year). All told, annual inflation is expected to be 1.6%, up four-tenths from November's level.

In the U.S., we will get clues about the handoff to 2017 thanks to important December data. CPI data could show the annual inflation rate continuing its upward trend to 2.1% due to a monthly gain of 0.3%.

This strength is explained by above-seasonal increases in gasoline prices, and by core inflation which is expected to accelerate in the context of rising wage inflation. Industrial production likely bounced back in December after struggling the prior month. Similarly, housing starts probably increased after the prior months’ outsized decline. The week will end with the Presidential Inauguration on Friday.

PreviousCPI (December y/y % chg.) 1.70%Industrial Production (December m/m % chg.) -0.40%

NBF forecasts2.10%0.50%

PreviousBoc Rate Decision 0.50%Manufacturing Sales (November m/m % chg.) -0.80%CPI (December y/y % chg.) 1.20%Retail Sales (November m/m % chg.) 1.10%

NBF forecasts0.50%0.90%1.60%0.70%


What we’ll be watching

4

Elsewhere around the world, China will be releasing Q4 GDP results in conjunction with December retail sales and industrial production. Japan will have November numbers on industrial production and capacity utilization. The European Central Bank will

hold its monetary policy meeting and rate decision on Thursday. The annual Davos World Economic Forum will be held from January 17th to January 20th, outlining global risk factors and economic conditions.


Consensus Cons.Estimate EPS

9:00 CA Existing Home Sales MoM Dec -5.30% --

8:30 US Empire Manufacturing Jan 9.0 8.4 UnitedHealth Group Inc Bef-mkt Q4 16 2.07Comerica Inc 06:40 Q4 16 0.94Morgan Stanley 07:00 Q4 16 0.65CSX Corp Aft-mkt Q4 16 0.50Linear Technology Corp Aft-mkt Q2 17 0.53United Continental Holdings Inc Aft-mkt Q4 16 1.75

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jan-13 5.80% -- Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd 16:01 Q4 16 3.138:30 US CPI MoM Dec 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% US Bancorp Bef-mkt Q4 16 0.818:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% Charles Schwab Corp/The Bef-mkt Q4 16 0.368:30 US CPI YoY Dec 1.70% 2.10% 2.10% Fastenal Co 07:00 Q4 16 0.388:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Dec 2.10% 2.10% 2.20% Northern Trust Corp 07:30 Q4 16 1.139:15 US Industrial Production MoM Dec -0.40% 0.60% 0.50% Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 07:30 Q4 16 4.809:15 US Capacity Utilization Dec 75.00% 75.40% 75.40% Citigroup Inc 08:00 Q4 16 1.12

10:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision Jan-18 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% Kinder Morgan Inc/DE Aft-mkt Q4 16 0.1810:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 70.0 69.0 Netflix Inc 16:05 Q4 16 0.1316:00 US Total Net TIC Flows Nov $18.8b --

8:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions Nov 15.75b -- BB&T Corp Bef-mkt Q4 16 0.748:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Nov -0.80% -- 0.90% M&T Bank Corp Bef-mkt Q4 16 2.048:30 US Housing Starts Dec 1090k 1189k 1220k KeyCorp Bef-mkt Q4 16 0.298:30 US Housing Starts MoM Dec -18.70% 9.10% 11.90% PPG Industries Inc Bef-mkt Q4 16 1.198:30 US Building Permits Dec 1201k 1220k 1220k JB Hunt Transport Services Inc Bef-mkt Q4 16 1.018:30 US Building Permits MoM Dec -4.70% 0.70% 0.70% Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The 06:30 Q4 16 0.778:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-14 247k 252k Union Pacific Corp 07:00 Q4 16 1.33

Skyworks Solutions Inc Aft-mkt Q1 17 1.58People's United Financial Inc 16:00 Q4 16 0.24International Business Machines Corp 16:00 Q4 16 4.89American Express Co 16:05 Q4 16 0.99

8:30 CA CPI NSA MoM Dec -0.40% -- -0.10% Schlumberger Ltd 02:00 Q4 16 0.278:30 CA CPI YoY Dec 1.20% -- 1.60% Synchrony Financial Bef-mkt Q4 16 0.678:30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Nov 1.40% -- 0.00% SunTrust Banks Inc 06:00 Q4 16 0.888:30 CA Retail Sales MoM Nov 1.10% -- 0.70% Regions Financial Corp 06:00 Q4 16 0.23

General Electric Co Bef-mkt Q4 16 0.46Rockwell Collins Inc 06:30 Q1 17 1.15Citizens Financial Group Inc 07:00 Q4 16 0.52Kansas City Southern 08:00 Q4 16 1.16

Source: Bloomberg

5

Jan 20

Wednesday

Jan 18

Thursday

Jan 19

Friday

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Jan 16

Monday

Tuesday

Jan 17

Earnings announcements

Economic calendar - Canada & U.S.

Country Release NBF Estimate

Company Time Qtr


Annex - Economic tablesJanuary 13, 2017

Monthly Growth (%) Annualized GrowthGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 * Dec 2016 3321 -1.0 0.4 0.7 6.6 9.7 7.8 7.2 7.4M2 * Dec 2016 13247 0.2 0.6 0.6 7.2 7.7 7.6 6.9 5.8

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer Credit * Nov 2016 3750 0.7 0.4 0.6 7.2 6.7 6.3 6.3 7.0Mortgage (Banks) * Nov 2016 4110 0.3 0.6 0.5 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.9 4.3Business * Nov 2016 2105 0.2 0.8 0.9 6.2 7.5 8.0 9.5 11.7

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross * Oct 2016 1874 0.9 0.7 0.3 8.3 7.7 7.5 6.5 4.7Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) * Nov 2016 911 0.6 0.5 0.4 6.3 7.0 7.5 7.2 3.9

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer * Oct 2016 564 0.3 0.3 -0.1 2.7 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.0Mortgages * Oct 2016 1416 0.4 0.6 0.5 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.3 5.6Short - Term Business Loans Sept 2016 499 0.6 1.4 -0.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 11.1 #VALUE!Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Nov 2016 1832 0.5 0.6 0.3 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.2 8.2Private (Consumer+Business) * Oct 2016 3804 0.5 0.4 0.4 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.5Gov. of Canada securities outstanding * Dec 2016 687 -0.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 4.3 3.6 3.7 1.0

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 12 Jan 17 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.60 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.50 0.50Prime Rate * 12 Jan 17 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.60 3.55 3.52 3.50 3.50 3.503-month Treasury Bills * 12 Jan 17 0.51 0.51 0.46 0.45 0.37 0.32 0.29 0.31 0.252-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.06 0.91 0.84 0.83 0.67 0.935-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 1.87 1.86 1.94 1.73 1.44 1.35 1.26 1.09 1.5110-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 2.36 2.37 2.48 2.26 1.93 1.85 1.74 1.53 2.0930-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 2.96 2.96 3.08 2.93 2.63 2.60 2.47 2.25 2.89Corp. High-yield (BofA ML Master II) * 12 Jan 17 6.30 6.31 6.47 6.58 6.69 7.53 6.53 6.99 9.28Corp. Invest. Grade (BofA ML Corp. BBB) * 12 Jan 17 3.76 3.76 3.84 3.74 3.54 3.73 3.38 3.37 4.41

SpreadCorp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 12 Jan 17 3.94 3.94 3.99 4.33 4.76 5.68 4.80 5.46 7.19Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 12 Jan 17 1.40 1.39 1.36 1.48 1.61 1.88 1.64 1.84 2.32Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 12 Jan 17 2.45 2.45 2.62 2.48 2.26 2.28 2.18 1.94 2.64

EXCHANGE RATEFED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 6 Jan 17 128.18 127.78 128.73 125.81 123.57 122.71 121.70 121.58 122.98

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 12 Jan 17 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70Target overnight rate * 12 Jan 17 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5030-day commercial paper * 12 Jan 17 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.853-month Treasury Bills * 12 Jan 17 0.47 0.45 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.47 0.391-year Treasury Bills * 12 Jan 17 0.65 0.63 0.63 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.58 0.49 0.355-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 1.08 1.07 1.12 0.96 0.81 0.75 0.76 0.56 0.5110-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 1.67 1.66 1.72 1.53 1.30 1.26 1.20 1.00 1.2230-year Bonds * 12 Jan 17 2.27 2.26 2.32 2.15 1.92 1.93 1.84 1.62 2.02SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 12 Jan 17 1.76 1.76 1.77 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.83 1.85 1.85Long Term - Short Term * 12 Jan 17 1.80 1.81 1.84 1.66 1.43 1.44 1.33 1.15 1.63

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 12 Jan 17 -0.04 -0.06 0.02 0.04 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.16 0.14Long Term Bonds * 12 Jan 17 -0.69 -0.71 -0.77 -0.79 -0.70 -0.67 -0.63 -0.63 -0.87

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 12 Jan 17 0.7608 0.7561 0.7406 0.7485 0.7572 0.7584 0.7582 0.7757 0.6961Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 12 Jan 17 89.8 89.5 87.8 88.2 88.8 88.8 88.4 90.4 82.0

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%)Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-dateThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 12 Jan 17 19891.0 0.5 5.0 3.9 9.6 8.4 20.4 0.5 -4.3S&P 500 (U.S.) * 12 Jan 17 2270.4 0.6 4.3 1.2 6.1 5.5 17.1 0.6 -3.7NASDAQ (U.S.) * 12 Jan 17 5547.5 2.5 3.3 0.0 5.9 10.4 18.4 2.5 -5.0S&P/TSX (Can.) * 12 Jan 17 15418.2 0.9 5.0 -0.4 5.5 6.5 24.6 0.9 -3.3

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year,Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream unless otherwise stated

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

A1


Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Nov 2016 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 1.4 4.5Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Dec 2016 113.7 109.4 100.8 108.0 104.3 99.9 96.3 99.9 98.0I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Dec 2016 54.7 53.2 51.9 53.3 52.2 51.5 48.0 51.5 51.3

Dec 2016 61.4 61.7 57.7 60.3 58.7 58.1 59.5 58.1 60.8

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Dec 2016 18.4 17.9 18.0 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4Retail Sales * Dec 2016 0.6 0.2 0.7 6.8 5.1 3.0 4.1 3.0 2.3

- Motor vehicle * Dec 2016 2.4 -0.2 0.8 11.6 9.3 3.5 6.8 3.5 6.6- Other * Dec 2016 0.2 0.3 0.6 5.5 4.0 2.9 3.4 2.9 35.5

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Nov 2016 0.2 0.4 0.7 -10.2 1.1 2.7 -7.6 2.7 3.6Total ($ constant) Nov 2016 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.7 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.2

Personal Income Nov 2016 0.0 0.5 0.4 4.1 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.4Personal Savings Rate (3) Nov 2016 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.8New Orders Nov 2016 -2.4 2.8 0.6 9.8 1.9 -2.3 -0.3 -2.1 -6.5

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft Nov 2016 0.9 0.5 -1.5 0.7 0.4 -4.3 -2.8 -4.1 -2.8Unfilled Orders Nov 2016 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.3 -1.6 -1.8 -1.1 -1.8 1.9Business Inventories * Nov 2016 0.7 -0.1 0.0 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.5 0.9 2.5Inventories / Shipments Businesses * Nov 2016 1.38 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.38Manufacturers' Shipments Nov 2016 -0.1 0.2 0.9 4.2 2.6 -2.6 0.1 -2.4 -4.3Manufacturers' Inventories Nov 2016 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.8 -0.3 -2.5 -0.7 -2.5 -0.8Inventories / Shipments Manuf. Nov 2016 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36Housing Starts (000) (1) Nov 2016 1090 1340 1052 1161 1177 1163 1171 1163 1103New Home Sales, single-family Nov 2016 5.2 -1.4 2.1 -3.0 12.8 12.5 16.5 12.8 14.7Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos Nov 2016 0.7 1.5 3.6 10.7 3.9 4.5 15.4 4.2 6.2

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production Nov 2016 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -1.0 0.5 -1.2 -0.6 -1.1 0.6

- Consumer Goods Nov 2016 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -1.1 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.6- Hitech goods Nov 2016 0.1 0.8 0.6 5.4 4.2 2.9 5.5 3.1 2.2

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports Nov 2016 -0.2 -1.8 0.9 3.3 6.3 -3.1 1.2 -2.7 -4.6Imports Nov 2016 1.1 1.2 -1.2 2.0 5.5 -2.8 2.8 -2.4 -3.4Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) Nov 2016 -45.2 -42.4 -36.2 -41.3 -41.5 -41.3 -41.1 -41.3 -41.7Real merchandise trade balance Nov 2016 -63.6 -60.3 -54.2 -59.4 -59.7 -59.9 -60.4 -59.8 -59.2Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) * Dec 2016 -580.1 -567.1 -495.0 -478.0 -580.1 -478.0

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Nov 2016 0.2 0.4 0.3 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.1

- Excluding Food and Energy Nov 2016 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.8PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy Nov 2016 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4Producer price index for final demand * Dec 2016 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.6 0.4 -0.9Average Hourly Earnings (4) Dec 2016 0.3 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.1Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Nov 2016 75.0 75.4 75.4 75.2 75.4 75.4 75.7 75.4 76.8Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Nov 2016 0.4 -0.5 -2.1 -14.3 14.9 5.8 6.8 5.7 6.8

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) Dec 2016 156 204 135 165 189 180 2157 2157 2744

- Manufacturing (000) Dec 2016 17 -7 -4 2 -2 -4 -45 -45 26- Services (000) Dec 2016 144 191 127 154 182 182 2180 2180 2558

Average weekly hours (6) Dec 2016 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.9 1.6 2.2Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Dec 2016 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.3

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q3 2015 2014 2013 2012Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars 3.5 1.4 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3Consumption 3.0 4.3 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.9 1.5Residential Construction -4.1 -7.8 7.8 11.5 12.6 14.8 11.7 3.5 11.9Business Investment 1.4 1.0 -3.4 -3.3 3.9 1.6 2.1 6.0 3.5

- Machinery and Equipment 4.1 11.8 -2.6 4.8 0.0 #VALUE! 0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE!Government Spending 0.8 -1.7 1.6 1.0 1.9 3.2 1.8 -0.9 -2.9Exports 10.0 1.8 -0.7 -2.7 -2.8 2.8 0.1 4.3 3.5Imports 2.2 0.2 -0.6 0.7 1.1 2.9 4.6 4.4 1.1Change in Inventories (1) (2) 7.1 -9.5 40.7 56.9 70.9 93.8 84.0 57.7 78.7GDP Deflator 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.2 1.1 1.8 1.6Personal Disposable Income 2.6 2.9 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.5 3.5 -1.4

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2013 2012 2011Labour Productivity (4) 3.1 -0.2 -0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3Unit Labor Costs (4) 0.7 6.2 -0.3 5.7 0.8 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.0

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2013 2012 2011Current Account (current $) -451.8 -473.1 -527.4 -453.6 -492.4 -447.6 -463.0 -392.1 -366.4

as a % of GDP -2.4 -2.6 -2.9 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2013 2012 2011

Corporate Profits (8) 25.4 -2.4 14.1 -22.3 -3.2 -11.4 -3.0 5.9 1.7as a % of GDP 11.5 11.0 11.1 10.8 11.6 11.7 11.6 12.0 12.5

* Update Source: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

- Non-manufacturing (level)

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS

January 13, 2017Monthly Growth (%)

A2


TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSJanuary 13, 2017


CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 2.2 3.0 -2.2 3.1 9.4 -2.3 9.0 -2.3 -8.9

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) Oct 2016 1.1 0.8 0.2 4.2 2.3 3.6 3.8 3.8 1.5

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers Oct 2016 0.0 2.6 -0.2 8.1 -2.6 7.3 3.2 7.0 5.0- Other Oct 2016 1.4 0.3 0.3 3.0 4.1 2.4 4.1 2.7 11.7

Retail Sales ($ constant) Oct 2016 0.6 0.7 0.1 3.5 0.8 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.3

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) Oct 2016 -0.8 0.3 1.0 5.1 0.3 0.2 1.9 0.4 -1.8New Orders Oct 2016 0.7 2.7 -1.0 -3.7 5.8 -1.0 6.1 -0.4 -4.4

- Durables Oct 2016 2.0 5.4 -3.6 -11.7 6.4 -0.1 10.2 0.6 -2.5Unfilled Orders Oct 2016 0.8 -0.1 -1.4 -2.8 -1.5 -6.0 -4.4 -7.4 9.5Manufacturer's Inventories Oct 2016 -0.1 0.5 -0.6 1.2 -1.6 -0.6 -2.1 -1.3 1.5Inventories / Shipments Ratio Oct 2016 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.43 1.38 1.40Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) Oct 2016 -1.7 -0.4 1.3 2.8 -1.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 -1.1

Housing Starts (000) (1) * Dec 2016 207.0 187.3 195.8 196.7 198.1 198.4 170.9 198.4 193.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -5.3 2.0 1.5 -4.1 -2.7 6.9 -2.0 6.6 5.1Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Aug 1900 3.1 1.4 12.2 -15.9 -24.0 -2.3 -3.8 -4.8 -3.0PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product Oct 2016 -0.3 0.4 0.2 3.8 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.0 1.0

- Manufacturing Oct 2016 -2.0 0.8 -0.2 1.7 -1.2 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.3- Construction Oct 2016 -0.5 0.7 -0.6 -1.9 -3.0 -4.3 -2.5 -3.6 -4.2

Services Oct 2016 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports Nov 2016 4.3 0.6 -0.5 14.9 2.3 -0.8 5.2 -1.2 -1.0Imports Nov 2016 0.7 -6.2 4.2 2.9 0.5 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 4.6

- Capital Goods Nov 2016 -4.3 -19.0 23.7 30.8 -3.8 -0.7 -9.4 -1.4 8.1Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) Nov 2016 527 -1,024 -4,246 -1,581 -2,172 -2,361 -2,081 -2,493 -2,008Change in Official Reserves Dec 2016 -412 -253 -812 -492 -134 247 2,965 2,965 3,377

Level (US$): $82.7 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) Oct 2016 -11.9 -11.3 -10.2 7.3 -9.3 0.6

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Nov 2016 -0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.2 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1

- Excluding Food and Energy Nov 2016 -0.4 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8- Core inflation (4) Nov 2016 -0.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.2

Average Hourly Earnings (2) Dec 2016 0.3 0.2 0.2 5.2 0.2 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.8Price of New Housing icluding land * Nov 2016 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.1 3.5 2.4 3.0 2.5 1.3Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 2.3 0.2 2.4 4.4 -0.7 11.4 7.5 11.4 7.9Industrial Prices (1992=100) Nov 2016 0.3 0.7 0.4 3.2 2.7 -0.3 1.4 -0.5 -1.0

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force Dec 2016 0.4 -0.1 0.2 2.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8Job creation (000) Dec 2016 53.7 10.7 43.9 36.1 28.4 17.8 214.1 214.1 155.4

- Manufacturing Dec 2016 3.6 -11.9 -7.5 -5.3 -0.2 -4.4 -53.4 -53.4 37.4- Services Dec 2016 52.0 31.2 23.4 35.5 25.1 23.0 275.8 275.8 172.4- Full Time Dec 2016 81.3 -8.7 -23.2 16.5 8.9 5.0 60.4 60.4 147.4- Part Time Dec 2016 -27.6 19.4 67.1 19.6 19.5 12.8 153.7 153.7 8.0

Unemployment Rate Dec 2016 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.9

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2015 2014 2013GDP Chained (2007) $ 3.5 -1.3 2.7 0.5 2.3 -0.4 0.9 2.6 2.5Household consumption 2.6 1.8 2.5 1.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 2.8 2.6Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip. 3.5 -0.9 -8.5 -13.7 -9.1 -15.1 -11.5 3.2 5.6

-Machinery and Equipment -12.2 4.1 -2.2 -10.1 2.2 -10.8 -3.3 1.2 0.6Residential Construction -5.5 0.3 10.2 1.8 2.5 1.2 3.8 2.7 -0.3Government Expenditures -1.2 5.3 3.3 0.0 1.5 0.9 1.5 0.8 -0.7Government Fixed Capital Formation 2.6 -0.9 2.7 -1.1 1.7 -5.5 5.8 -3.6 -7.4Final Domestic Demand 0.9 2.0 1.8 -0.5 0.9 -0.7 0.3 1.9 1.6Exports 8.9 -14.8 9.0 -2.1 5.7 5.2 3.4 5.8 2.7Imports 3.3 1.4 2.3 -6.3 -4.3 -0.4 0.3 0.3 2.2Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) 4.6 1.0 -8.2 -3.1 -0.9 6.3 3.9 9.4 14.8Real Disposible Income 7.4 3.4 -1.0 4.5 2.0 6.0 3.4 1.2 3.2Personal savings Rate 5.8 4.8 4.5 5.6 4.8 5.3 5.0 3.7 5.0GDP Price Deflator 2.5 1.1 0.0 -1.1 0.7 0.4 -0.8 1.9 1.6Corporate Profits (nominal) 93.1 -34.4 2.6 -27.6 6.4 -18.6 -19.5 8.2 4.0

as a % of GDP 11.2 9.7 10.7 10.7 11.6 11.5 11.5 14.3 13.8Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 81.9 79.7 81.2 80.6 81.2 80.6 81.1 82.4 81.0Labour Productivity, Business Sector 5.0 -0.9 1.7 0.0 0.7 -3.7 -0.6 2.7 1.5Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -2.7 3.1 -0.9 3.0 -1.5 3.0 2.6 0.8 1.2

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2015 2014 2013Current Account (current $) (5) -73.2 -76.1 -68.2 -66.4 -65.3 -65.8 0.0 -67.6 -48.2

as a % of GDP -3.6 -3.8 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 0.0 -3.4 -2.4

Sources: Thomson reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real Estate Association* Update

(1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions(3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tables

Monthly Growth (%)

A3



QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 0.5 1.1 0.2 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 0.3Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -1.2 1.5 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -1.5 0.7 -1.7 -1.2Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 41.4 37.5 39.2 39.4 39.4 38.7 41.4 38.7 36.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -4.0 3.2 2.1 9.0 4.0 6.3 3.7 6.0 4.6Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.7 1.3 -1.0 3.4 3.7 2.9 3.9 3.3 2.3Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 10.0 -4.1 11.2 37.7 -0.2 -0.9 11.5 -1.8 7.8CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 3.1 -1.5 -3.5 -3.6 7.4 10.4 10.2 10.4 -2.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 -1.5 -3.5 -3.6 7.4 10.4 10.2 #VALUE! -2.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 0.0 1.2 0.0 7.6 2.1 2.8 3.2 2.8 2.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 0.2 -1.0 0.5 4.7 4.6 2.7 2.0 2.9 1.5

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 20.4 8.5 3.2 10.7 14.7 7.5 89.5 89.5 48.6Unemployment rate Dec 2016 6.6 6.2 6.8 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.9 7.1 7.7Participation rate Dec 2016 65.1 64.5 64.8 64.8 64.6 64.6 65.0 64.6 64.8

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 1.5 0.8 -0.2 5.4 2.1 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.0Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -0.8 0.5 0.9 5.6 -2.0 4.5 2.6 4.6 1.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 80.1 59.1 84.8 74.7 74.2 75.1 53.8 75.1 69.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -3.5 0.8 3.4 11.1 9.8 8.9 6.7 8.7 9.4Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.2 0.9 -1.0 1.1 3.7 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.1Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 0.2 1.9 0.1 37.2 -3.3 6.5 3.4 5.6 10.5CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 3.2 3.1 -0.1 5.6 2.8 -1.7 7.2 -1.7 -3.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Sep 2016 #REF! #REF! #REF! 2.8 -1.7 7.2 #VALUE! -3.5 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 0.2 0.0 0.1 3.7 -0.7 2.2 0.9 2.2 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.4 1.0 0.3 6.9 7.7 4.6 6.3 4.8 2.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 3.0 0.7 2.2 25.2 20.1 14.2 20.7 14.8 7.4LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 9.1 18.9 25.4 17.8 7.3 6.7 80.6 80.6 84.5Unemployment rate Dec 2016 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.8Participation rate Dec 2016 64.9 64.8 64.8 64.9 64.8 65.0 65.2 65.0 65.2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 0.1 1.9 1.4 -0.7 -0.1 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.1Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 18.9 -11.9 0.6 -12.7 -2.5 -20.7 -11.3 -21.4 -5.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 0.6 4.7 -5.6 -14.9 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.3 4.0Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.9 -1.5 0.5 -0.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.2 3.4Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 10.3 32.0 -32.5 -37.5 56.1 -9.6 63.1 -10.0 -31.7CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 12.7 -4.8 8.1 18.3 -23.3 -21.8 -26.4 -21.8 -12.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Sep 2016 -4.8 8.1 18.3 -23.3 -21.8 -26.4 0.0 -12.4 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.7 0.3 0.4 2.3 6.4 2.5 3.6 2.6 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 1.0 0.7 0.8 17.7 0.7 -0.6 1.3 -0.6 -1.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.3Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 0.9 3.8 -1.1 4.5 0.3 -6.4 -3.1 -6.8 -2.9LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 -1.6 -0.4 -5.6 -2.5 -1.7 -0.5 -5.7 -5.7 -4.8Unemployment Dec 2016 14.9 14.3 14.9 14.7 13.8 13.4 14.4 13.4 12.9Participation rate Dec 2016 60.0 60.0 60.5 60.2 60.3 60.5 61.4 60.5 61.1

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 -1.1 4.8 -1.1 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.7 6.3 1.7Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 3.4 -5.5 5.3 14.5 13.1 5.1 2.1 5.3 6.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 5.6 -13.4 -0.5 -9.5 19.4 23.2 11.1 22.3 19.5Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 1.1 0.7 -1.0 1.6 2.4 4.4 2.7 3.9 3.0Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 -1.5 -0.9 12.4 38.1 32.8 3.1 15.6 2.0 17.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 -11.6 8.6 3.0 -5.2 2.4 0.7 3.3 0.7 13.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Sep 2016 8.6 3.0 5.2 2.4 0.7 3.3 #VALUE! 13.2 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.2 -0.7Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 -1.0 0.6 1.3 10.0 -1.5 1.3 0.0 1.3 2.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -13.9 13.5 -13.5 -26.2 11.0 8.5 -1.5 9.1 -0.8LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5Unemployment Dec 2016 10.7 10.8 11.7 11.1 11.0 10.8 9.8 10.8 10.4Participation rate Dec 2016 65.9 65.6 66.0 65.8 65.7 65.8 66.5 65.8 67.6

Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

January 13, 2017Monthly Growth (%)

A4


January 13, 2017 Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 0.8 1.2 0.8 8.7 2.6 4.0 5.1 4.3 -1.2Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -1.1 -2.4 5.5 3.5 4.9 5.5 0.3 4.6 4.2Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 3.9 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.7 1.8 3.7 3.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -9.5 -2.9 4.8 6.3 4.8 4.2 -8.7 5.0 3.6Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.4 0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.9Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 2.9 5.8 -13.2 -33.9 -4.8 -0.6 -3.4 -2.5 0.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 0.1 -1.0 6.3 31.5 -7.0 -2.6 -8.6 -2.6 10.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 -1.0 6.3 31.5 -7.0 -2.6 -8.6 #VALUE! 10.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.1 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 -1.0 0.1 1.4 9.7 3.9 3.2 5.2 3.2 0.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -1.0 -6.0 10.8 23.6 8.7 0.2 1.3 0.2 2.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 0.5 3.7 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.2 2.6 2.6 -5.2Unemployment Dec 2016 8.3 8.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.6Participation rate Dec 2016 61.9 61.7 60.9 61.5 61.5 61.7 62.0 61.7 62.4

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 1.6 0.9 3.3 1.5 -2.3 3.9 0.6 3.6 1.9Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -1.4 -6.0 7.4 7.3 3.3 -8.5 8.3 -5.7 -7.7Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 3.0 7.1 -4.5 16.1 19.1 7.6 13.9 6.9 5.7Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 1.5 0.3 -0.4 2.2 3.1 4.1 4.6 3.9 2.5Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 6.8 -20.6 -23.8 -73.7 -4.7 -12.5 6.3 -13.1 -6.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 1.7 5.9 -5.4 -19.5 2.8 -2.6 -2.3 -2.6 1.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 5.9 -5.4 -19.5 2.8 -2.6 -2.3 #VALUE! 1.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 3.7 2.1 2.5 2.2 0.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 -0.4 -0.3 1.3 13.5 5.5 2.1 4.1 2.1 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.0 0.4 1.2 6.4 1.6 0.6 1.6 0.6 -0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -1.8 1.8 -3.1 -4.3 6.3 1.0 2.4 1.1 -1.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 0.6 0.5 -2.2 -0.4 0.9 0.2 2.1 2.1 1.4Unemployment Dec 2016 9.4 8.7 10.0 9.4 9.4 9.6 8.9 9.6 9.8Participation rate Dec 2016 62.8 62.2 63.0 62.7 62.7 62.4 62.3 62.4 62.7

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 0.0 -0.8 1.9 1.8 0.4 4.7 2.3 5.0 1.1Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 2.1 -0.9 6.1 18.3 -5.0 1.0 3.0 0.9 -2.1Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 4.3 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.3 4.9 5.3 5.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -7.9 5.3 0.3 -6.1 -5.1 4.2 -5.1 4.1 1.3Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 1.2 0.5 -0.1 1.9 0.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 3.0Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 10.8 2.3 2.2 22.5 -13.7 -0.7 4.2 -2.1 1.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 5.4 13.7 1.6 51.4 3.2 -2.0 0.5 -2.0 -5.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 13.7 1.6 51.4 3.2 -2.0 0.5 #VALUE! -5.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -1.2 0.3 -0.2 -1.9 2.6 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 0.6 0.2 0.3 5.3 0.0 2.0 1.2 2.0 3.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.1 0.6 0.3 3.5 2.5 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 2.3 -1.6 2.1 8.4 6.5 2.0 3.4 2.6 1.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 1.2 -0.9 0.9 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8Unemployment Dec 2016 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.6Participation rate Dec 2016 67.2 67.1 67.4 67.4 67.4 67.5 68.0 67.5 68.3

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -7.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 -3.9Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -1.1 1.1 6.0 21.8 6.5 -2.6 6.2 -1.3 -11.6Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 5.3 4.1 4.7 4.7 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -8.6 4.5 -1.7 3.9 -3.7 -5.9 -13.3 -5.7 -11.0Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -1.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 2.1Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 5.2 5.2 31.3 195.6 6.0 -20.1 1.4 -20.1 -6.4CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 5.4 -6.9 1.8 0.4 4.8 -3.9 -4.1 -3.9 -15.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 -6.9 1.8 0.4 4.8 -3.9 -4.1 #VALUE! -15.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.8 0.2 -0.1 -1.8 1.4 1.2 0.0 1.1 1.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 0.9 -0.5 -0.1 7.7 0.8 3.3 2.2 3.3 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 -0.7Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 3.8 -4.3 -1.3 -6.0 2.5 -0.8 -0.3 -0.8 -0.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 -1.1 2.4 -2.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -6.9 -6.9 0.4Unemployment Dec 2016 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.3 5.5 6.3 5.0Participation rate Dec 2016 69.7 70.1 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 70.4 69.9 70.1

Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)

Monthly Growth (%)

A5



ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 0.8 0.6 0.3 1.4 -1.6 -2.5 -0.7 -1.9 -4.4Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -2.0 -0.6 2.1 3.9 4.2 -12.2 -3.8 -11.1 -13.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 26.8 25.2 25.6 25.8 25.3 24.6 25.5 24.6 37.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -13.2 6.9 4.1 6.2 12.5 -9.8 -8.9 -9.1 -21.7Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.0 -0.8 1.3 1.8 -3.3 -3.8 -2.9 -3.8 0.2Value of merchandise exports (1) Nov 2016 9.4 1.0 -1.8 51.1 23.2 -18.4 13.1 -17.0 -23.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 16.4 -10.2 -11.9 -41.0 94.0 -12.4 31.2 -12.4 -40.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 -10.2 -11.9 -41.0 94.0 -12.4 31.2 #VALUE! -40.1 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 -1.7 1.8 1.1 0.2 1.1 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 1.1 0.1 -0.2 2.4 -1.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 3.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 0.3 -0.9 1.3 1.9 4.0 0.2 2.5 0.3 -2.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 6.9 -12.8 9.0 1.0 3.0 -1.6 -18.8 -18.8 -19.6Unemployment Dec 2016 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.1 7.0 8.1 6.0Participation rate Dec 2016 72.7 72.9 72.9 72.8 72.6 72.5 72.7 72.5 73.0

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales Oct 2016 1.8 1.0 0.1 8.6 7.0 6.5 8.4 6.6 6.1Manufacturing Shipments Oct 2016 -0.5 0.4 1.9 15.2 9.1 2.6 6.9 3.2 3.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Dec 2016 41.8 46.1 27.4 38.4 40.0 42.1 35.2 42.1 31.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 -6.2 1.7 -3.9 -43.5 -33.9 14.4 -19.3 13.1 21.1Wages and Salaries Sept 2016 0.6 0.7 0.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 4.8 4.2 4.0Value of merchandise exports * Nov 2016 10.4 3.5 -0.2 50.3 23.2 7.5 25.9 7.6 -0.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Dec 2016 0.7 5.2 3.5 18.8 5.8 -4.1 5.5 -4.1 -5.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Sep 2016 5.2 3.5 18.8 5.8 -4.1 5.5 #VALUE! -5.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Nov 2016 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) Dec 2016 0.2 -0.2 0.2 3.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.1 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * Nov 2016 -0.3 0.3 0.3 2.4 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.5 0.7Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Nov 2016 2.6 2.0 3.8 -19.4 -21.6 9.7 -5.5 8.9 11.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Dec 2016 17.0 -9.3 14.9 7.5 4.6 6.0 72.4 72.4 51.5Unemployment Dec 2016 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.7 6.0 6.2Participation rate Dec 2016 64.7 64.5 64.8 64.6 64.4 64.4 64.1 64.4 63.4

Sources: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

January 13, 2017

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)

Monthly Growth (%)

A6


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSJanuary 13, 2017


OECD leading index * Nov 2016 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.3

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) * Dec 2016 42.5 40.5 42.0 41.7 42.0 41.7 41.8 41.7 41.3Retail Sales (1) Nov 2016 1.4 4.7 -2.2 -3.6 -5.4 -0.7 1.7 -0.7 -0.3Industrial Production, Volume Index Nov 2016 1.5 0.0 0.6 7.8 4.2 -1.0 2.9 -0.9 -1.2Exports Nov 2016 4.3 1.8 0.7 12.6 -1.0 -8.9 -2.8 -8.8 4.8Imports Nov 2016 3.4 -0.5 1.2 4.4 -7.4 -17.3 -9.3 -17.2 -7.8Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) * Nov 2016 6,225 5,546 5,350 5,707 5,314 4,108 1,738 48,189 -7,133Current account (Billions of ¥) * Nov 2016 180 193 153 175 173 166 155 1,831 1,468Inflation (CPI) Nov 2016 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.9Job offers to applicants ratio Nov 2016 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.40 1.38 1.34 1.26 1.35 1.20Unemployment Rate Nov 2016 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.4

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 1.3 1.8 2.8 -1.8 0.8 -0.5 1.2 0.2 2.0

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales Nov 2016 -0.4 1.4 -0.3 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.8Industrial Production exc. Construction * Nov 2016 1.5 0.1 -0.8 3.6 1.6 1.3 3.0 1.3 2.1Exports Oct 2016 -0.3 -0.5 2.4 6.8 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 5.3Imports Oct 2016 2.9 -1.6 0.9 7.8 -1.1 -2.1 0.0 -3.0 2.3Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) Oct 2016 19,698 24,433 22,891 22,340 22,509 22,114 22,317 223,250 188,708Inflation (CPI) Dec 2016 0.5 -0.1 0.2 2.6 1.6 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0Unemployment Rate * Nov 2016 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.1 10.9

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2013 2012 #VALUE!Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 1.4 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.5 -0.4 0.0 #VALUE!

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Dec 2016 -5 -7 -3 -5 -6 -2 4 -2 3Retail Sales Nov 2016 0.2 1.9 0.0 8.7 6.6 4.8 5.9 5.0 4.5Manufacturing, energy and mining output * Nov 2016 2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -2.3 1.9 0.7 1.9 0.8 1.3Exports (1) * Nov 2016 2.8 6.7 -1.4 19.5 10.0 3.5 13.5 3.8 -1.9Imports (1) * Nov 2016 8.4 -6.0 0.1 13.3 19.7 3.9 17.4 5.7 -0.7Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) * Nov 2016 -12,163 -9,885 -13,832 -11,960 -12,391 -12,897 -11,923 -123,127 -111,752Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Nov 2016 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1Producer price index, manufacturing (1) Nov 2016 0.0 0.7 0.3 3.7 3.0 0.1 2.3 0.2 -1.7House prices * Dec 2016 1.7 0.6 1.5 10.5 3.6 7.7 6.7 7.7 8.9Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) Oct 2016 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.5

Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) 2.3 2.6 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.8 2.2 3.1 1.9

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 12 Jan 17 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 12 Jan 17 -0.26 -0.36 -0.41 -0.34 -0.31 -0.27 -0.29 -0.28 -0.02

- Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan 17 -0.77 -0.87 -0.87 -0.79 -0.68 -0.59 -0.58 -0.59 -0.27Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 12 Jan 17 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.01 -0.04 -0.06 -0.06 -0.26 0.23

- Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan 17 -2.31 -2.31 -2.43 -2.25 -1.97 -1.90 -1.80 -1.79 -1.86Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 12 Jan 17 114.7 115.4 116.6 111.5 106.8 108.3 103.7 105.3 118.0

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 12 Jan 17 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.24 -0.25 -0.25 -0.15

- Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan 17 -0.76 -0.76 -0.71 -0.70 -0.62 -0.56 -0.54 -0.56 -0.40Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 12 Jan 17 0.00 120.30 119.98 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 0.00 $$ER: E100

- Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan 17 -2.36 117.93 117.51 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -1.74 -1.53 #VALUE!Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 12 Jan 17 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.09

(Yen/Euro) * 12 Jan 17 121.69 122.38 122.04 119.33 116.93 120.08 114.49 117.88 128.26(Euro / £ ) * 12 Jan 17 1.15 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.21 1.11 1.20 1.32

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 12 Jan 17 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.18 0.31 0.18 0.37 0.48

- Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan 17 -0.41 -0.50 -0.45 -0.34 -0.19 -0.01 -0.11 0.06 0.23Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 12 Jan 17 1.94 1.96 1.84 1.95 1.71 1.96 1.70 1.62 2.52

- Spread with U.S. * 12 Jan 17 -1.02 -1.01 -1.24 -0.99 -0.92 -0.65 -0.77 -0.63 -0.38Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 12 Jan 17 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.24 1.27 1.34 1.23 1.33 1.44

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SincePast Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Jan 2017 221 1.4 0.0 -3.0 -1.6 4.9 0.6 1.4 -2.5* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream

Annex - Economic tables

Monthly Growth (%)

A7


Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Jan 12 Jan 5 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS

Total 432.7 429.1 0.8 2.1 1.0 15.3 -1.5 19.4 362.3

Energy 452.3 451.1 0.3 -4.1 3.0 7.2 36.0 60.2 282.3Grain 296.8 294.3 0.8 3.8 1.1 21.4 -1.6 3.3 287.1Industrials 403.8 396.3 1.9 3.4 0.0 74.1 17.9 25.7 321.1Livestock & Meat 341.8 335.2 2.0 1.1 -0.3 172.2 2.2 -5.2 360.7Precious Metals 783.3 773.8 1.2 4.4 1.2 -3.9 -23.7 17.5 666.5

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1206.65 1173.05 2.9 2.3 1.4 -15.4 -17.2 10.6 1090.75(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 990.0 952.0 4.0 5.2 -0.5 22.0 -16.1 17.0 846.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.6 2.0 -14.1 -31.4 21.6 0.1(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 758.0 738.0 2.7 10.1 2.3 96.8 38.1 56.3 485.0

OTHER METALS (LME)Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,791 1,710 4.8 1.0 -2.6 26.4 14.9 20.2 1,490

Copper ($/tonne) 5,814 5,561 4.6 1.7 -0.6 135.8 39.5 31.5 4,420

Zinc ($/tonne) 2,710 2,601 4.2 3.7 -4.1 119.1 53.7 80.2 1,504

Nickel ($/tonne) 10,224 10,241 -0.2 1.7 -5.7 -6.1 -1.8 19.7 8,543

Lead ($/tonne) 2,194 2,037 7.7 4.4 -7.1 50.7 34.6 34.4 1,633

Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) 22.00 20.25 8.6 0.0 0.0 -12.5 -30.6 -36.7 34.75

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil WTI ($/barrel) future 53.01 53.76 -1.4 0.0 1.5 22.0 34.7 69.9 31.20(NYMEX)

Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future -15.95 -15.95 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.5 35.5 12.3 -14.20(West Canadian select - CME)

Corn (¢/bushel) 3.4 3.5 -1.4 3.6 1.8 22.7 1.2 -2.6 3.5(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 10.1 9.9 2.7 0.2 1.0 45.1 -10.5 15.1 8.8(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 118.0 123.8 -4.7 0.0 0.0 13.0 -29.5 -13.0 135.6

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 132.6 133.3 -0.5 0.1 0.9 32.9 -15.0 -18.5 162.6(CME)

Soft Wood Pulp (HWWI) 95 95 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -5.3 -5.4 0.2 95Index 2010 = 100

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 3.32 3.30 0.6 -10.3 3.1 21.8 43.7 51.6 2.19Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 305 315 -3.3 1.2 1.2 -25.2 -10.9 19.6 255

Iron ore ($/metric ton) 82 78 5.2 -3.7 5.2 303.6 90.8 102.2 40

All prices are in US dollars Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

January 13, 2017

A8


ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY Montreal Office 514-879-2529 Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Kyle Dahms Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist Economist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist [email protected] [email protected] Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Senior Economist Geopolitical Analyst [email protected] [email protected]

General – National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein.

Research Analysts – The Research Analyst(s) who prepare these reports certify that their respective report accurately reflects his or her personal opinion and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or companies.

NBF compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of NBF including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales, the correspondent clearing business, and Corporate and Investment Banking. Since the revenues from these businesses vary, the funds for research compensation vary. No one business line has a greater influence than any other for Research Analyst compensation.

Canadian Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report, Canadian residents should contact their NBF professional representative. To effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor.

U.S. Residents – With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by, research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker/dealers in the US. These non-US research analysts are not registered as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research analysts and trading securities held a research analyst account.

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. Because the views of analysts may differ, members of the National Bank Financial Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further inquiry related to this report, United States residents should contact their NBCFI registered representative.

UK Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, National Bank Financial Inc. has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). National Bank Financial Inc. and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant investments or related investments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.

This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. National Bank Financial Inc. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD.

National Bank Financial Inc. is not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept deposits in the United Kingdom.

Copyright – This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.

Toronto Office 416-869-8598 Warren Lovely MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy [email protected]

nbf_ECONO-OVERVIEW_170113watching_20170113_ECalendar13Jan2017tables13Jan2017Weekly_DisclaimerPage_E

january 13, 2017 · 2017. 1. 16. · january 13, 2017 week in review canada – in december, the...

Documents