jan erik back - seb · 2014. 9. 18. · q4-2010 with 7.3% yoy gdp growth but seb continues to...

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Morgan Stanley Financials Conference Jan Erik Back CFO 29 March 2011

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Page 1: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

Morgan Stanley Financials

Conference

Jan Erik BackCFO

29 March 2011

Page 2: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

22

SEB today

Priorities during 2010

SEB going forward

Page 3: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

33

Highlights 2010 results

Higher activity levels

Further improved asset quality

Enhanced return on equity

Income

Profit SEB Baltic

RoE

Q4

14.3%

Page 4: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

4

Profit and loss trend

Operating profit (SEK bn)

10.0

6.2

0.4

Operating income Operating expenses Net credit lossesQ4-10 Q4-10 Q4-10

Note: Shaded

areas refer

to gain

on buy-back

of subordinated

debt, acquisition

goodwill write-offs, restructuring

costs

and impairment

charges respectively

3.6

4.3

Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10

Profit and loss development Q4-08 –

Q4-10 (SEK bn)

Page 5: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

5

Theme #1: NII growth

Gradual recovery of NII from more normal funding and liquidity costs

Signs of new corporate lending

Deposit margins widening from record low levels following higher short-term rates

Positive gearing for higher Swedish repo

rates, +100 bps = SEK 1.3bn

Net interest income (SEK bn)Key Drivers

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q107

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q110

Q2 Q3 Q4

Lending Deposits Other

Page 6: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

6

Baltic net credit loss dynamics (SEK bn)

6

Theme

#2: Upbeat

asset quality

First bank to report net releases of provisions driven by Baltic region

Stars were aligned: no hick-up anywhere in the Group

Non-performing loans decreasing

Only 15 per cent of all reserves in the Baltic region realised

Credit loss level for the Group 14bps 2010, 7bps outside the Baltics. Guidance of 20-30 bps over a business cycle

Build-up of provisions

2008 2009 2010 2011 ?

Realizing losses

0.7

0.3

-0.4

-1.4

-2.6-2.5-2.6

-1.7

-0.9

-0.4-0.3-0.2

Q1-08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-09

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10 Q2 Q3 Q4

Baltic countries

Key Drivers

Page 7: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

7

Theme

#3: Corporate

portfolio

Promising dynamics

Committed facilities +22%

Retail corporate portfolio in Sweden +18%

Lending at a trough in the summer

459 461 464 490 509

90 100 103 99 10660 55 53 53 51609 615 620 642 666

0100200300400

500600700800

Dec '09 Mar '10 Jun '10 Sep '10 Dec '10

Nordic & Other Germany Baltics

Geography based on SEB's operations; Dec 10 exchange rates applied historically

Lending

340

343

334

338

347Cont. liabilities

241

240

251

275

294Derivative

28

32

36

30

25Total

609

615

620

642

666

+9% YoY

-15% YoY

+18% YoY

+11% YoY

SEB Group, corporate credit portfolio

(SEK bn)

Page 8: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

88

SEB today

Priorities during 2010

SEB going forward

Page 9: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

9

Strategy for regulatory changes

Maintain more than adequate capital ratios in the short-term –

flexibility. Current B2 CT1 12.8%=B3 CT1 11.3%

Gradually close the NSFR gap–

Issue > maturing–

Gradually extend maturity

Upgrade liquidity portfolio–

Reduce non LCR compliant papers

Focus on high quality papers

106 97110

98

166

130

102120

Other Covered bonds Maturing debt

Long-term funding

(SEK bn)

2008 2009 2010 Future

Strategy

Page 10: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

10

SEB’s

financial

position

10

Core

Tier

1*

Matched

funding

Leverage

ratio

(FDIC)

2007 2008 2009 2010

8.4% 8.6%

11.7% 12.8%12.8%

25x23x

18x 17x17x

12 months7 months

17 months 18 months18 months

Dividend SEK 4.4bn SEK 0bnSEK 2.2bn SEK 3.3bnSEK 3.3bn

* Basel II without transitional floor; 2010 pro forma for disposal of German retail

Page 11: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

11

Great position for growth in areas of strength

Growth strategyPrerequisites

Core relationship growth

No ailing businesses

Desired business mix in place

One SEB business model

Strong capital position

Scalable platform

Investments in Nordic & German wholesale franchise and SMEs and savings in Sweden

Page 12: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

12

Core relationship growth Attractive position

Large corporates

Sweden Private Banking

Cards Baltic Retail BankingNordic model with strong local presence

Building the most respected and top ranked home bank

Continued risk management

Develop customer franchise

Strengthen core markets

Number 1 in the Nordics

One Nordic company –

integration and scale of economies

Excel in #1 position in Sweden

Attract new assets under management

The only truly embedded bank

Top ranked products across the line

Continue to excel the competition

Page 13: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

13

Core relationship growth Merchant Banking expanding from a position of strength

Prime brokerage

Shipping

Acquisition finance

Upgrade the organisation

Add additional country analysts

The only truly embedded bank

Top ranked products across the line

Large corporates SwedenContinue to excel the competition

Excel in Number 1 position in Sweden

Attract new asset under management

Work more cross-divisional

Financial institutionsUtilize the strong platform

Emerging marketsKeep the # 1 position

Specific segmentsBecome most respected in selective segments

Page 14: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

14

Export-led economic recovery

Consumer confidence returning

Strong franchise -

customers, employees, solutions & brand

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

10-point plan running according to plan

Increased focus on new business activities

Core relationship growth Strong rebound in Baltics, back in black since Q3-10

BalticsGDP development, %

Page 15: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

15

Great position for growth in areas of strength

Growth strategyPrerequisites

Core relationship growth

Geographic growth

Segment growth

No ailing businesses

Desired business mix in place

One SEB business model

Strong capital position

Scalable platform

Investments in Nordic & German wholesale franchise and SMEs and savings in Sweden

Page 16: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

1616

Geographic growth Nordic and German corporate expansion

Development 2010

More than 100 new clientsSeveral headline transactions

Focus areas 2011-13

Gain 400 new clients No. 1 overall rank for large corporates

in the Nordics The bank of choice for German Mittelstand clients

Complete recruitments

Benefit from corporate refinancing and pick-up in credit demand

Accelerate market activities

Execute, execute, execute

Nordics

Laid groundwork for growth, now positioned for recovery

GermanyFocused on sale of Retail banking business and improved corporate business proposition

Page 17: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

17

-100

100

Core relation-

ships%

0

2012 desired position2009

Corporate

target

market

2006

Sweden

* Relative to mean

performance in relative market (Source: Greenwich)

Geographic growth Potential through investments in client coverage

Perceived quality*

100

Country Wallet penetration

Norway

Finland

Germany

Sweden

Denmark

Potential

Nordics

Page 18: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

18

Nordic and German expansion according

to plan

Joint coordinator NOK 1bn and joint manager NOK 700m

Joint coordinator EUR 1.5bn

Sole advisor on acquisition of Cardo

and sole arranger of SEK 14.3bn facility

Sole underwriter EUR 300m

Large

cap clients:

Client executives:

Loans

and commitments:

+88

+63

+62bn

Best corporate bank in the Nordic region among Tier 1 corporates

Financial advisor of the year in the Nordic region

Best FX, trade finance and cash management in the Nordic region

18

Page 19: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

19

Supported with a strong pedigree

2010 -

The Corporate Bank of the year

2009 and 2008 the SME bank of the year

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2005 2007 2009 2011F 2013F

Segment growth A true business partner for SMEs

Strong offering and increased focus

Increase position in micro-SMEs

Expand footprint in larger SMEs

Improve customer experience

Credit portfolio grow by 18 per cent in

2010

SME market share Sweden (%)

19

Page 20: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

20

Segment growth Focus on savings

Rising net sales in WM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010

Institutional Clients Private Banking

Total net sales (SEK bn)

20

25

15

12

17

25

0% 50% 100%

Lith

uani

aE

ston

iaS

wed

en

SEB's market share Competitors

#1

#2

#3

#3

#2

Market shares (%)

Leading in unit-linked

SEB rank

New savings account

Byta

Page 21: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

2121

SEB today

Priorities during 2010

SEB going forward

Page 22: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

2222Source: SEB's

Chief Financial Officers‘ confidence survey, addressed to over 100 of the largest companies in Sweden and Norway (Feb 2011)

Economic sentiments positive…

354045505560657075

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11

SEB's

Financial Officers Survey 2007-2011 “Business Climate”

Swedish corporate lending growth vs. economic sentiment

Source: Datastream, SEB Enskilda

708090

100110120130

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%

Growth in economic sentiment Y-o-y corporate loan growth lagged by 12 months

Page 23: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

23

…on the back of strong fundamentals

Nordic countries benefit from strong economies

Low sovereign debt levels

Balanced budgets

Ongoing positive sentiment in export regions such as Asia, Latin America and Germany

Sweden saw record growth in Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY

GDP growth

But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in Japan

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Eurozone

2009 2010 2011F 2012F

GDP development

(%)

Page 24: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

2424

Priorities for 2011

Exploit core strengths

Maintain flexibility & resilience

Corporates

in Nordics & Germany Universal bank in Sweden & Baltics

Page 25: Jan Erik Back - SEB · 2014. 9. 18. · Q4-2010 with 7.3% YoY GDP growth But SEB continues to maintain its resilience and flexibility given market chocks like the recent events in

2525