jan denys - change in the labor market, myth vs reality
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1
Change on the labour market. The
difference between myth and
reality.
Jan Denys
Sanoma
Brussels, May 22th 2014
2
No change
• The meaning of work
• Flexibility
• Careers
• New generations
• Intermediaries on the labour market
• Employment rate
• Mobility on the labour market
• The weak points of the Belgian labour market
• Coffee at work
3 3
4
Why do we work?
• Money
• Structures time
• Social contacts
• Connects individual and social goals
• Status and identity
• Skills
• Fun
5
Why do we work?
6
7
7
The figures
Source: Randstad/SEO, flexibility@work2013
Belgium
8,8% Belgium
8,1%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Share
in %
of to
tal
em
plo
ym
ent
Year
United States
Canada
Japan
EU-Anglosaxon
EU-Rhineland
Scandinavia
EU-Francophone
EU-Mediterranean
Eastern Europe
fixed-term contracts
8
8
share flexible labor relations in total employment
Source: Randstad/SEO, flexibility@work2013
Belgium
21,7%Belgium
21,5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Share
in %
of to
tal
em
plo
ym
ent
Year
United States
Canada
Japan
EU-Anglosaxon
EU-Rhineland
Scandinavia
EU-Francophone
EU-Mediterranean
Eastern Europe
flexible labor relations
9
Establishment
20 25 35 45 55 65
Effort
s
High
Explore
Low
Traditional career model (Baird & Kram)
9
10
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
T Ex
Es
M Ex
Ex T
Es
M Ex
Ex T
Es
M Ex
Ex Exploration T Trial Es Establishment M Mastery
Psy
cholo
gic
al su
cces
New career model - Protean career (Hall)
10
11
Do careers change?
–
Flanders EU27
Yearly jobmobility 6,3% 8,4%
Average job tenure 11,3 year 9,7 years
Participation in training 7,4% 9,3%
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Do careers really change?
• 70%
• 56%
• 59%
13
Stereotyping the young generation
• ‘Our youth now love luxury. They have bad manners,
contempt for authority; they show disrespect for their
elders and love chatter in place of exercise; they no
longer rise when elders enter the room; they contradict
their parents, chatter before company; gobble up their
food and tyrannize their teachers.’
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‘Nowhere in history have we seen 4
generations in today’s workplace’
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Wrong assumptions of generation thinking
Differences between ages do not mean necessarily
differences between generations
Youngsters are (and were) different than other age
groups
People change during their lives
To find differences between generations you need to
compare youngsters of today with youngsters in the past
17
Employment rates 2000-2012
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1
8
2
19 19
Exit unemployment
Landen Werkend
Oostenrijk 40,5%
België 21,1%
Duitsland 28,2%
Denemarken 43,9%
Spanje 26,1%
Finland 32,6%
Frankrijk 34,1%
Griekenland 18,0%
Italië 24,6%
Luxemburg 44,1%
Nederland 53,6%
Portugal 33,1%
Zweden 43,2%
Verenigd Koninkrijk 41,0%
20 20
Exit inactivity
Landen Werkend
Oostenrijk 23,4%
België 7,0%
Duitsland 15,5%
Denemarken 24,1%
Spanje 5,9%
Finland 24,7%
Frankrijk 9,7%
Griekenland 2,7%
Italië 4,5%
Luxemburg 11,8%
Nederland 53,2%
Portugal 5,1%
Zweden 25,9%
Verenigd Koninkrijk 15,5%
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Disruptive in 2000
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Stock Price of Monster since 2005
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Disruptive in 2014
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Growing impact on labour market Belgium 1983-2011
Bron: RSZ, Federgon (Bewerking Steunpunt WSE)
25
Penetration rates EU-Japan-USA
26
Weak points Belgian labour market
• Low employment rate
• Low activity rate
• Belgium makes little progress
• Weak mobility between unemployment/inactivity and
work
• Growing mismatch
• Big differences between regions
• Brussels : the problem
• Massive black labour market
• Limited contractual flexibility
• Public sector blocks labour market
27
28
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Impact of technology
30
Impact of technology
31
Impact of technology
32
Disruptive models
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Change
• Sectors
• Jobs
• Skills
• Education
• Full time, Part time
• Where do we work?
• Speed
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Bron: 1846-1947: Bairoch, 1967; Lefevre, 1976-1977.; 1950-1965: Planbureau, Dossier statistique de population
active, d‘ emploi et de chômage, 1950-1987; 1970-1990: Ministerie van Tewerkstelling en Arbeid, De
beroepsbevolking in België; 1995-2011: OECD, Structural Analysis Database (STAN).
).
35
Development sectoral employment in Flanders 1995-2018 35
36
Change in skills
37
Change in skills (2)
38
Polarisation
39
40
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42 42 Bron: online.wsj.com
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Traditional Modern
Vision on labour market
Closed Open
World perspective Company Labour market
Power play Uneven: in the advantage of the employer
More equal and also changing
Responsibility Employer Shared responsibility worker/employer
Emotion Negative, threat Positive, opportunities
Social protection Permanent contract, notice periods, closing fee
Mobility, employability
2 jobs
Security Jobsecurity
Work security
Basic characteristics Homogeneous Diversity
45
Thanks for your attention!
https://twitter.com/#DenysJan