jan 20, 2011 is tanker demand growing fast enough? 2nd annual marine money london ship finance forum...
TRANSCRIPT
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Jan 20, 2011
Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough?
2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum
Henry Curra, ACM Shipping
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VLCC
Panamax
Crude / DPP tanker spot earnings ($/day)
Aframax5 Yr Average
200920102011
Suezmax
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LR2
MR West CPP
MR East CPP
LR1
CPP tanker spot earnings ($/day)
5 Yr Average
2009 20102011
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Newbuilding prices & freight earnings
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Current global oil demand forecast
2.7m b/d
1.4m b/d
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Floating Storage – Million barrels
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Crude tonnage supply
PHASE 1:
MARKET SUPPORT
PHASE 2:
AGGRAVATED
OVERSUPPLY
PHASE 3:
RETURN TO NORMALITY
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Product tonnage supply
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Oil in storage
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Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand
*Top 6
Tonne-mile demand
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Earnings Vs. tonnage oversupply
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Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand
all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule
25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years
Tonne-mile demand
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Non-OPEC oil production
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Non-OPEC oil supply outlook
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Oil import forecast for 2011
‘apparent’ oil import demand
oil demand
oil supply
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Oil import forecast for 2011
‘apparent’ oil import demandoil demand
oil supply
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Oil import forecast for 2011
‘apparent’ oil import demandoil demand
oil supply
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OPEC oil supply
+3.4m b/d
+6.0m b/d
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Current global oil demand forecast
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Monthly crude oil imports
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Monthly crude oil imports
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Monthly crude oil imports
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Monthly crude oil imports
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Monthly crude oil imports
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Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand
all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule
25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years
X
Tonne-mile demand
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Fleet growth outlook assumptions
Phaseout assumptions ofremaining spot trading S/H vessels
2011 2012MR1 9 0MR2 2 0LR1 1 0PANAMAX 1 0LR2 0 0AFRAMAX 2 0SUEZMAX 1 0VLCC 7 1
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Fleet growth outlook assumptions
Projection of net NB removal (slippage/cancellation/misreport)
2011 2012MR1 15 2MR2 27 6LR1 9 1PANAMAX 0 0LR2 3 1AFRAMAX 15 6SUEZMAX 15 6VLCC 22 6
Scheduled NB deliveries
Current fleet 2011* 2012 2013 2014
MR1 791 61 17 7 0MR2 1013 108 64 14 0LR1 294 34 10 13 2PANAMAX 126 1 0 0 0LR2 237 10 10 0 0AFRAMAX 616 60 60 37 11SUEZMAX 356 61 61 18 0VLCC 539 88 62 38 10
*full year
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Fleet growth outlook assumptions
Projected at start of year16%
23%
32% 25%
10%
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Tanker fleet growth
Forecast
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ACM Research & ConsultingACM Shipping Limited
Kinnaird House,
1 Pall Mall,
London SW1Y 5AU
Email: [email protected]
Head of Research: Henry Curra
Tel: +44(0)207 484 6369