james krouse - input federal it forecast and the software
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© 2007
SaaS Government 2007
INPUT Federal IT Forecast and the Software Market
James KrouseDirector, Market AnalysisINPUT
January 18, 2007
© 2007
INPUT Fcst4%
Federal IT Budget, FY 1989 – FY 2011
Source: OMB, INPUT
Historical CAGRsPeak: 1998-2003
12%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Fiscal Year
Fe
de
ral
IT B
ud
ge
t ($
Bil
lio
ns) Total Federal
Civilian
Defense
© 2007
Federal IT Budget-Spending Trend
Percent Change -- IT Budget Request to Actual IT Spending
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%F
Y 1
994
FY
199
5
FY
199
6
FY
199
7
FY
199
8
FY
199
9
FY
200
0
FY
200
1
FY
20
02
FY
200
3
FY
200
4
FY
200
5
FY
200
6*
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
© 2007
Federal IT Market Drivers
• Election year yields slow appropriations
• Many non-DHS and non-DoD elements expected to be sacrificed
• Deficit will still be a major priority and IT budget force in 2008
Tighter control over spending
Budget pressure outside of priorities
• Administration still following the President’s Management Agenda
• Homeland Security/Defense Transformation are still priorities
© 2007
INPUT’s Federal IT ForecastFY 2006 – FY 2011
75.4 76.380.3
84.588.8
93.4
80.576.1
72.067.9
64.063.3
0102030405060708090
100
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
Fed
eral
IT
Bu
dg
et (
$ B
illi
on
s)
Total IT Budget -- 4.4% CAGRContracted Portion -- 5.0% CAGR
© 2007
Key Issues to Watch in 2007
Market Slow Down – Haves and Have Nots
Move to Vehicles Affecting Competition
Failure in IT Projects Suppressing Growth
Continuing Budget Pressure
OMB Lines of Business – Issue or Distraction?
Impact of Elections
© 2007 7
Federal Software Market Forecast and Developments
© 2006
© 2007 8
Software Market Influencers
OMB’s influence is actively impacting agency budgets and plans• Business plans driving budgeting• Measurement and Performance
Government increasingly acting like private sectorBudget pressure will continue to increaseUse of Enterprise-wide purchasing vehiclesOutsourcing continues to change spending patterns
© 2007
Federal IT Forecast – FY 2006-FY 2011 Software Market
Total Software Products Market
2
0.7
0.4
2.4
0.9
0.5
1.8
2.3
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
Civilian Defense Intel Other
Mar
ket
Siz
e ($
B)
FY 2006
FY 2011
© 2007
Federal IT Forecast – FY 2006-FY 2011 Software Market Components
Software Products Market Components
3.2
3.9
1.7
2.1
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
FY 2006 FY 2011
Ma
rke
t S
ize
($
B)
ApplicationsSoftw areSystemsSoftw are
© 2007
Software Market Changes
Less outright purchase of Software
Active review of COTS where purchase necessary
Custom Software failing Cost Vs. Benefit
Less outright purchase of hardware
Absorbing hardware depreciation questioned
All = Less Traditional Integration Contracts
© 2007
Major Integration Contracts Fading
18.4
13.6
9.4
10.6
7.5
5.6
13
17
11
76
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006
To
tal
Va
lue
of
Aw
ard
s (
$B
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Nu
mb
er
of
Aw
ard
s
Award Value
# of Awards
© 2007
Software Market Conclusions
Continued growth between 4% and 5% annually
Gravitation away from Purchase and Build
Evolution of Service-oriented Market
- Service Oriented Architectures
- Software as a Service
Service Transformation similar to private sector
Lines of Business
© 2007 14
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© 2006