James F. CaseyAssociate Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies

Williams School of Commerce, Economics and PoliticsWashington and Lee University

caseyj@wlu.edu

Beyond CopenhagenWhat happened?

Copenhagen Accord 2 °C a global temperature guardrail commitment to significant funding for developing nations targets from all of the major emitters, including emerging

economies.

Where are we going?Cancun, Mexico Expiration of the Kyoto treaty in 2012Cap or a Price?

My Humble OpinionBRIC countries, OECD countries, Everybody else

AdaptationChange is already occurring – how will we adapt?Sea levelAgricultureExtreme weather eventsit will cost $75 - $100 billion each year (in

developing countries)to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050 (The World Bank).

Mitigation$78b to $106b/year to 2020 to reduce carbon

emissions 20%, (McKinsey).CCS – carbon capture and storageReduce deforestationAlternative energy

Moral Imperatives’Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity,

and it is the world’s most vulnerable populations who are most immediately at risk. The actions of the wealthiest nations—those generating the vast majority of greenhouse gases—have tangible consequences for people in the rest of the world, especially in the poorest nations.’

Michael R. BloombergMayor of the City of New York

The world’s poor and future generations cannot afford the complacency and prevarication that continues to characterize international negotiations on climate change. (United Nations)

“the cost of stabilization can be limited to around one percent of global GDP a year” – Sir Nicholas Stern

Domestic PolicyCap and Trade

The idea Set a limit on CO2 emissions Issue permits (Auction) Allow trading

The reality Limits will be influenced by politics Permits allocation subject to politics Supply and demand uncertainty (price fluctuations)

Again, My Humble OpinionTax CO2 emissions

2011 - $5/Ton2020 - $50/Ton

The Pigou Club http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/10/pigou-club-manifesto.html

Resourceshttp://rff.org/focus_areas/Pages/Energy_and_Climate.aspxhttp://www.ft.com/indepth/copenhagen-climate-

conferencehttp://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/

climate.2010.09.htmlhttp://www.rff.org/rff/Publications/upload/

31809_1.pdf