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The Political Culture of Democracy in Jamaica, 2010

Democratic Consolidation in the Americas in Hard Times

Topics to be Covered in this Presentation

Topics to be Covered in this Presentation

I. Background on the AmericasBarometer

II. The Data

III. Social Capital

IV. Democratic Values

V. Trends in Corruption

LAPOP’s Beginnings

The 1970s The 1990s

The AmericasBarometer

2004 2010

26 countries, 43,990

interviews

Donors 2010

Country Sample Size Sampling Error

Mexico/ Central America Mexico 1,562 ±2.5% Guatemala 1,504 ±2.5% El Salvador 1,550 ±2.5% Honduras 1,596 ±2.5% Nicaragua 1,540 ±2.5% Costa Rica 1,500 ±2.5% Panama 1,536 ±2.5%

Andean/Southern Cone Colombia 1,506 ±2.5% Ecuador 3,000 ±1.8% Peru 1,500 ±2.5% Bolivia 3,018 ±1.8% Paraguay 1,166 ±2.9% Chile 1,965 ±2.5% Uruguay 1,500 ±2.5% Brazil 2,882 ±1.8% Venezuela 1,500 ±2.5% Argentina 1,505 ±2.5%

Caribbean Belize 1,504 ±2.5% Dominican Republic

1,500 ±2.5%

Guyana 1,540 ±2.5% Haiti 1,752 (+4,248) ±2.4% Jamaica 1,499 ±2.5% Suriname 1,500 ±2.5% Trinidad & Tobago

1,503 ±2.0%

United States and Canada Canada 1,500 ±2.2% United States

1,500 ±2.0%

Sample Size and

Confidence Intervals (National

Level)

Use of handheld computers:1. Reduces data entry errors

2. Allows for multiple languages3. Permits embedded experiments

Guyana

Honduras

Costa Rica

Venezuela

Uruguay

IEP Instituto de Estudios Peruanos

Ecuador

Colombia

Andes/Cono Sur

Brazil

Chile

Paraguay

Bolivia

IEP Instituto de Estudios PeruanosPeru

Andean / Southern Cone

Partners2010

Panama

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

Honduras

El Salvador

Guatemala

Mexico

Mexico and Central America

Opinión Publica y MercadosOpinión Publica y Mercados

Partners 2010

U.S.

Canad

Canadáy EstadosUnidos

Canada

Canada and United States

Jamaica

Haiti

Guyana

Dominican Republic

Caribbean

Partners 2010

Making Results Accessible

Country Reports: all on‐line, free

Insights Series &Americas Quarterly

Free on-line subscription:

Free subscriptions to the “Insights Series” of bi-weekly studies at: [email protected]

Free on-line data analysis:www.LapopSurveys.org

Free on-line data analysis


II. The Jamaica Data


LAPOP Surveys in JamaicaLAPOP Surveys in JamaicaSurvey Years

No. of Respondents

Theme of the Survey

2006 1,595 The Political Culture of Democracy in Jamaica: 2006

2008 1,499

The Political Culture of Democracy in Jamaica, 2008: The Impact of Governance

2010 1,504

The Political Culture of Democracy in Jamaica, 2010: Democratic Consolidation in the Americas in Hard Times


The Sample The Sample • Face-to-face interviews by interviewers trained by LAPOP

• Stratified national probability samples down to the household level (quotas within households)

• National sample of 1504 persons, 18 years and over

• Probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling is used at every stage

• Estimated Error: < +/- 2.5% with 95% confidence interval

• Use of PDAs


Spatial Distribution of Respondents


Selected Descriptive Statistics from Population Census (2001) and LAPOP (2010) Survey

Selected Population Characteristics

2001 Population Census

LAPOP 2010 Survey

N(n) – Voting age Jamaicans

1,653,906 (1504)

Region

% Kingston Metropolitan Area

30.9 31.2

% Cornwall 24.8 23.6

% Middlesex 33.3 33.4

% Surrey 11.0 11.8

Gender

% Males 48.4 50.0

Age

Average age (years) 40.3 40.5


III. Social CapitalInterpersonal TrustCivic Participation

Political Participation


Interpersonal TrustInterpersonal Trust

Verytrustworthy

15.3%

Somewhattrustworthy

52.8%

Not verytrustworthy

20.5%

Untrustworthy11.4%

Interpersonal Trust

Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP

IT1. Now, speaking of the people from around here, would you say that people in this community are very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy or untrustworthy...?

(1) Very trustworthy (2) Somewhat trustworthy (3) Not very trustworthy (4) Untrustworthy


Interpersonal Trust 2006-2010Interpersonal Trust 2006-2010

58.960.3

56.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Inte

rper

son

al T

rust

2006 2008 2010

Year

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)


Trust among neighbors has remained unchanged in Jamaica from 2006 to 2010


Interpersonal Trust in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Interpersonal Trust in Comparative Perspective, 2010

32.7

46.2

46.6

52.6

54.2

55.1

55.6

56.2

56.7

56.9

57.4

57.7

57.9

58.6

59.8

61.6

61.9

62.8

62.9

63.5

63.7

63.8

64.1

68.2

69.0

70.2

HaitiPeru

BelizeBolivia

EcuadorBrazil

ArgentinaMexico

VenezuelaJamaica

GuatemalaDominican Republic

SurinameNicaragua

PanamaParaguay

El SalvadorColombia

ChileTrinidad & Tobago

GuyanaHonduras

UruguayUnited States

CanadaCosta Rica

0 20 40 60 80

Interpersonal Trust

95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)


Jamaica shows an intermediate level of Interpersonal trust in comparison to other countries in the Americas


Interpersonal Trust and Perception of Insecurity

30

40

50

60

70

Inte

rpe

rso

na

l Tru

st

Very Safe Somewhat Safe Somewhat Unsafe Very Unsafe

Perception of Insecurity



Participation in Civic Organizations in Jamaica, 2010

Participation in Civic Organizations in Jamaica, 2010

69.5%Religious Groups

42.5%Parents' Associations

24.8%Community Improvement Committees

16.2%Women's Associations

15.6%Political Parties/Political Organizations

15.0%Professional/Business Organizations

..

0 20 40 60 80

Percentage who Participated




Participation in Secular Civic Organizations in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Participation in Secular Civic Organizations in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Jamaica has an intermediate level of participation in secular civic organizations among the countries included in the 2010 surveys

35.3%

37.7%

41.8%

42.7%

43.8%

47.1%

47.9%

48.5%

49.3%

53.9%

55.5%

58.1%

58.8%

60.1%

62.0%

62.2%

63.0%

63.2%

63.5%

64.4%

67.5%

69.8%

71.0%

74.8%

75.6%

76.6%

CanadaArgentina

BrazilCosta Rica

United StatesChile

UruguayTrinidad & Tobago

PanamaHonduras

BelizeVenezuela

GuyanaEcuadorJamaica

MexicoEl Salvador

SurinameColombia

NicaraguaGuatemala

PeruParaguay

BoliviaDominican Republic

Haiti

0 20 40 60 80

Participation in at least in one SecularCivic Organization




Participation in Protests in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Participation in Protests in Comparative Perspective, 2010

3.1%

3.7%

4.3%

4.7%

4.8%

5.1%

5.1%

5.4%

5.4%

5.4%

5.7%

6.4%

6.6%

6.6%

6.8%

7.9%

8.2%

8.6%

9.8%

11.4%

11.4%

12.0%

12.2%

13.5%

15.4%

17.2%

JamaicaGuyana

El SalvadorChile

PanamaBelize

CanadaDominican Republic

BrazilCosta Rica

SurinameMexico

Trinidad & TobagoHondurasColombiaEcuador

VenezuelaGuatemalaNicaragua

BoliviaUruguay

ParaguayPeru

United StatesArgentina

Haiti

0 5 10 15 20

Percent of people that participate in protests



Jamaica has the lowest level of public protest participation among the countries included in the 2010 surveys


Percent who Worked for Political Parties or Candidates in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Percent who Worked for Political Parties or Candidates in Comparative Perspective, 2010

3.1%

4.8%

5.8%

8.0%

8.3%

8.8%

8.8%

9.0%

9.0%

9.1%

9.3%

10.6%

11.1%

11.2%

11.5%

11.5%

11.7%

12.2%

12.6%

12.9%

13.0%

13.4%

14.8%

15.6%

18.8%

19.9%

ChileCanada

PeruMexicoBolivia

JamaicaEcuadorGuyana

Trinidad & TobagoColombia

GuatemalaArgentina

El SalvadorVenezuelaNicaragua

BrazilHonduras

Costa RicaBelize

PanamaUruguay

United StatesParaguay

HaitiSuriname

Dominican Republic

0 5 10 15 20 25

Percent who Worked for Political Parties or Candidates



PP2. There are people who work for parties or candidates during electoral campaigns. Did you work for any candidate or party in the last general elections of 2007? (1) Yes, worked (2) Did not work


Participation in Local Government Meetings in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Participation in Local Government Meetings in Comparative Perspective, 2010

3.7%

4.0%

5.7%

6.9%

7.0%

7.4%

7.5%

8.4%

8.8%

9.4%

11.3%

11.5%

11.6%

11.8%

11.8%

12.0%

12.8%

13.2%

13.2%

13.5%

14.6%

15.1%

15.7%

15.8%

24.9%

27.3%

PanamaChile

ArgentinaCosta Rica

EcuadorBrazil

UruguayColombiaHonduras

MexicoBolivia

JamaicaPeru

SurinameNicaraguaParaguay

GuyanaBelize

El SalvadorTrinidad & Tobago

VenezuelaHaiti

GuatemalaCanada

United StatesDominican Republic

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Percent who Attended a Local Government Meeting



NP1. Have you attended a town meeting, parish council meeting or other meeting in the past 12 months? (1) Yes(2) No


IV. Democratic Values in Jamaica

Support for DemocracySatisfaction with DemocracySupport for the Rule of Law

Support for Political InstitutionsPolitical and Social ToleranceSupport for Stable Democracy


Agreement with Churchill?

ING4. Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?

7Strongly

Agree

6

5

4

3

2Strongly disagree 1


Widespread Support for Democracy in the Latin America and the Caribbean

51.8%

53.5%

57.9%

59.0%

60.6%

63.8%

64.3%

65.6%

66.6%

66.9%

68.4%

69.0%

70.1%

71.3%

72.0%

72.1%

72.6%

72.9%

73.6%

74.6%

78.1%

78.2%

79.3%

79.8%

84.0%

87.2%

PeruHondurasParaguay

GuatemalaEl Salvador

MexicoHaiti

EcuadorNicaragua

Dominican RepublicBelize

Trinidad & TobagoJamaicaGuyana

ColombiaVenezuela

BoliviaPanama

BrazilCanada

Costa RicaUnited States

ArgentinaChile

SurinameUruguay

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent of the Population withHigh Support for Democracy



However, Jamaica shows a relatively intermediate level of support for democracy in comparison to other countries in the Americas

Low support=1-4 values on 1-7 scaleHigh support=5-7 values on 1-7 scale


Support for Democracy 2006-2010

78.8% 75.1%

70.1%

0

20

40

60

80

Pe

rcen

t o

f th

e P

op

ula

tio

n w

ith

Hig

h S

up

po

rt f

or

De

mo

cra

cy

2006 2008 2010

Year



Jamaicans experience some decline on their belief that democracy is the best possible form of government since 2006


Satisfaction with the way democracy

works in JamaicaPN4. In general, would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in Jamaica?(1) Very satisfied (2) Satisfied (3) Dissatisfied(4) Very dissatisfied

37.8

43.8

44.6

44.7

44.7

45.3

45.3

46.3

47.8

48.6

49.9

49.9

50.6

50.6

50.7

51.3

51.9

53.9

54.7

56.1

56.7

57.2

57.8

62.5

62.5

67.9

HaitiGuyanaMexico

Trinidad & TobagoPeru

JamaicaArgentina

VenezuelaGuatemalaNicaragua

BelizeParaguaySuriname

United StatesDominican Republic

EcuadorColombia

ChileEl Salvador

BrazilBolivia

CanadaHonduras

Costa RicaPanamaUruguay

0 20 40 60 80

Satisfaction with Democracy



Jamaica shows a relatively low satisfaction with democracy in comparison to other countries in the Americas


Satisfaction with Democracy2006 - 2010

51.548.7

45.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Sa

tisf

act

ion

wit

h D

emo

cra

cy

2006 2008 2010

Year



Satisfaction with democracy is also declining


Items used to create “Support for Military Coups” Index

Now, changing the subject. Some people say that under some circumstances it would be justified for the military of this country to take power by a coup d’état (military coup). In your opinion would a military coup be justified under the following circumstances? [Read the options after each question]JC1. When there is high unemployment.

(1) A military take-over of the state would be justified

(2) A military take-over of the state would not be justified

(88) DK

(98)DA

JC10. When there is a lot of crime.



(88) DK

(98)DA

JC13. When there is a lot of corruption.



(88) DK

(98)DA


Support for military coups,2010

Jamaica shows a high level of support for military coups

18.9

21.3

22.1

24.6

24.7

27.1

27.7

27.8

28.8

30.0

30.0

33.0

33.2

33.4

33.4

33.7

35.4

36.2

36.6

38.9

40.9

45.3

46.0

47.1

47.8

Argentina

Panama

Suriname

Canada

United States

Chile

Uruguay

Costa Rica

Brazil

Honduras

Venezuela

Colombia

Dominican Republic

Trinidad & Tobago

Bolivia

Jamaica

Nicaragua

Paraguay

Ecuador

Guyana

El Salvador

Peru

Guatemala

Mexico

Belize

0 10 20 30 40 50

Support for Military Coups




Trust in Key National Institutions 65.9Army

60.9Media

57.3Protestant Church

52.3 Electoral Office

51.3Supreme Court

43.2Elections

41.1Parish Council

41.9National Government

40.2Parliament

38.8Prime Minister

33.5Political Parties

32.6National Police..

0 20 40 60 80

Average




Items used to create “System Support” Index

B1. To what extent do you think the courts of justice in Jamaica guarantee a fair trial?

B2. To what extent do you respect the political institutions of Jamaica?

B3. To what extent do you think that citizens’ basic rights are well protected by the political system of Jamaica?

B4. To what extent do you feel proud of living under the political system of Jamaica?

B6. To what extent do you think that one should support the political system of Jamaica?

A lot7

6

5

4

3

2

Not at all1


System Support in Comparative Perspective, 2010

32.0

44.0

45.2

46.3

46.8

48.6

48.9

49.0

49.6

50.0

51.7

53.5

53.6

53.9

54.0

54.9

56.7

56.8

57.1

57.8

58.7

60.2

60.3

60.4

63.2

68.0

HaitiTrinidad & Tobago

ArgentinaParaguay

PeruJamaicaEcuador

VenezuelaGuatemala

BrazilNicaragua

United StatesBelize

Dominican RepublicBolivia

GuyanaChile

MexicoSuriname

CanadaEl Salvador

PanamaColombiaHonduras

Costa RicaUruguay

0 20 40 60 80

System Support



Jamaica shows a relatively low system support in comparison to other countries in the Americas


Items used to create the “Political Tolerance” index

Items used to create the “Political Tolerance” index

D1. There are people who only say bad thingsabout the Jamaican form of government, not justthe incumbent government but the system ofgovernment. How strongly do you approve ordisapprove of such people’s right to vote?

D2. How strongly do you approve or disapprovethat such people be allowed to conduct peacefuldemonstrations in order to express their views?

D3. Still thinking of those who only say bad thingsabout the Jamaican form of government, howstrongly do you approve or disapprove of suchpeople being permitted to run for public office?

D4. How strongly do you approve or disapproveof such people appearing on television to makespeeches?

StronglyApprove 10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

StronglyDisapprove 1


Indicators of Political Tolerance

0

20

40

60

80A

vera

ge

.

66.8

Protest

64.4

Vote

54.1

Free Speech

49.0

Run for Office




Political Tolerance, 2006 - 2010

72.7

57.2 58.5

0

20

40

60

80T

ole

ran

ce

2006 2008 2010

Year




Political Tolerance in Comparative Perspective, 2010

43.4

45.1

47.2

47.5

47.5

48.4

49.2

49.4

50.2

50.2

50.9

51.8

51.9

58.5

59.0

59.0

60.0

60.4

61.4

63.4

64.5

64.6

66.6

66.7

67.3

70.4

HaitiEl Salvador

BoliviaPeru

HondurasParaguay

MexicoDominican Republic

GuatemalaEcuadorPanama

ColombiaChile

JamaicaBelizeBrazil

NicaraguaSurinameUruguay

VenezuelaGuyanaCanada

Trinidad & TobagoCosta RicaArgentina

United States

0 20 40 60 80

Political Tolerance



Jamaica shows an intermediate level of political tolerance in comparison to other countries in the Americas


Social Tolerance in Comparative Perspective, 2010

7.1

13.6

16.8

25.4

26.5

27.1

27.6

31.0

32.5

34.2

34.5

36.7

38.5

38.9

39.3

42.0

45.0

45.9

47.8

52.5

56.7

62.4

65.6

66.0

71.8

75.3

HaitiJamaicaGuyana

El SalvadorDominican Republic

ParaguayTrinidad & Tobago

GuatemalaBelize

HondurasPanama

BoliviaEcuador

PeruNicaraguaVenezuelaColombia

MexicoSuriname

Costa RicaChile

BrazilArgentina

UruguayUnited States

Canada

0 20 40 60 80

Approval of Homosexuals Running for Office



D5. And now, changing the topic and thinking of homosexuals, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people being permitted to run for public office?

With 13.6 points on a 0-100 scale, Jamaica has the second lowest average level of approval of homosexuals running for office


Same-sex marriage in Comparative Perspective, 2010

D6. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of same-sex couples having the right to marry?

3.5

5.0

7.2

10.3

15.4

15.6

16.1

16.5

17.5

18.4

18.6

20.3

20.7

22.5

22.6

22.8

24.7

26.3

34.4

37.8

39.7

39.8

47.4

50.5

57.7

63.9

JamaicaHaiti

GuyanaEl Salvador

Trinidad & TobagoNicaraguaParaguay

GuatemalaBelize

EcuadorDominican Republic

SurinameCosta RicaVenezuelaHonduras

PanamaBolivia

PeruColombia

MexicoChile

BrazilUnited States

UruguayArgentina

Canada

0 20 40 60 80

Approval of Same-sex CouplesHaving the Right to Marry



With 3.5 points on a 0-100 scale, Jamaica has the lowest average level of approval of same-sex marriage


V. Corruption and its Impacton Democracy

Perception of CorruptionCorruption Victimization

Justification of CorruptionCorruption and Democracy


Fight against CorruptionFight against Corruption

• Defined simply as the “the misuse of entrusted power for private benefit” (Transparency International, 2000, p.1), it is an age-old phenomenon

• Exists to some degree in all societies

• More prevalent in Developing Countries

• International collaboration in combating corruption intensified since the 1990s

• Central to anti-corruption effort are initiatives aimed at determining nature and scope of the problem in society


Corruption in Jamaica according to Transparency International (TI)

Corruption in Jamaica according to Transparency International (TI)

• Jamaica consistently ranked among the highly corrupt nations of the world on (TI’s) Corruption Perception Index (CPI)

• Jamaica accorded a ‘highly corrupt’ designation every year since 2002

• Corruption in public affairs is perceived to have progressively worsened over the years

• Slight reversal in 2010

Year CPI

2006 3.7

2007 3.3

2008 3.1

2009 3.0

2010 3.3

Source: Transparency International, 2010


Perception of Corruption in Jamaica

EXC7. Taking into account your own experience or what you have heard, corruption among public officials is… (1)Very common (2)Common(3)Uncommon(4) Very uncommon(88) DK (98) DA

Verycommon

53.4%

Common40.5%

Uncommon4.5%

Veryuncommon

1.5%

Perception of Corruption



Perception of Corruption by Year

Slight decrease in the level of perception of corruption in Jamaica from 2008 to 2010

83.7 85.681.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rcep

tio

n o

f Co

rru

pti

on

2006 2008 2010

Year




Perception of Corruption in Comparative Perspective, 2010

Jamaica has the second highest level of perception of corruption in the Americas

50.5

58.4

62.1

64.6

65.0

67.5

68.1

69.9

70.4

73.9

74.2

75.5

76.0

76.1

76.2

76.3

77.6

78.0

78.0

78.4

78.5

78.6

79.4

81.7

83.1

Suriname

Canada

Uruguay

El Salvador

Brazil

Nicaragua

Chile

United States

Honduras

Ecuador

Bolivia

Guatemala

Belize

Venezuela

Panama

Mexico

Dominican Republic

Colombia

Costa Rica

Paraguay

Guyana

Argentina

Peru

Jamaica

Trinidad & Tobago

0 20 40 60 80





Key Items in the LAPOP Corruption Victimization Series

Key Items in the LAPOP Corruption Victimization Series

• being asked to pay a bribe to a police officer

• being asked to pay a bribe to a public official

• being asked to pay an illegal fee to expedite a transaction at the municipal government

• being asked to pay a bribe at work

• being asked to pay a bribe for public health/medical service

• being asked to pay a bribe in the school system


Corruption Victimization by Year

Decrease in the level of corruption victimization in Jamaica from 2006 to 2010

34.0%

24.5%

7.8%

0

10

20

30

40

Pe

rcen

t o

f P

op

ula

tio

n V

icti

miz

ed

by

Co

rru

pti

on

2006 2008 2010

Year




Justification of Corruption in Jamaica

Justification of Corruption in Jamaica

Do you think given the way things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified? (1) Yes (2) No

No80.9%

Yes19.1%

Do you think given the way things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified?



Justification of Corruption by YearJustification of Corruption by Year

55.6%

38.7%

19.1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% w

ho

rep

ort

ed t

hat

pay

ing

a b

rib

e is

just

ifie

d

2006 2008 2010

Year



Jamaica has experienced a decrease in the level of justification of corruption from 2006 to 2010


Justification of Corruption in Jamaica in Comparative Perspective,

2010

Justification of Corruption in Jamaica in Comparative Perspective,

2010

However, the country ranks fifth in terms of the percentage of people who reported that paying a bribe is justified given the way things are

6.4%

6.5%

7.6%

7.8%

7.8%

9.4%

9.9%

10.7%

11.0%

12.1%

12.3%

12.6%

12.7%

14.2%

14.4%

15.0%

15.6%

17.2%

17.7%

19.1%

19.1%

20.9%

25.4%

27.6%

31.8%

32.3%

United StatesCanada

GuatemalaChile

BrazilHonduras

UruguayVenezuelaCosta Rica

ParaguayPanama

ArgentinaEl Salvador

BoliviaSuriname

NicaraguaEcuador

PeruDominican Republic

ColombiaJamaica

MexicoTrinidad & Tobago

BelizeHaiti

Guyana

0 10 20 30 40

% who reported that paying a bribe is justified




Perception of Corruption Undermines Democratic Legitimacy

The greater citizens’ perception that corruption is widespread in public affairs, the weaker the support for the political system in Jamaica

44

46

48

50

52

54

Sys

tem

Su

pp

ort

Common Very CommonVery Uncommonand uncommon



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