jake crouch - national climatic data center · july 2018 monthly climate webinar temperature:...
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar July 2018
Jake CrouchClimate Scientist, Climate Monitoring Branch,
NOAA National Centers for Environmental
Information
Crystal StilesApplied Climatologist, High Plains Regional
Climate Center
Matthew RosencransMeteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA
Climate Prediction Center
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 2
• June: +0.75°C above20th century average
– 5th warmest Juneon record
– 402nd consecutive month above the 20th century average
• Land: +1.06°C
– 6th warmest June on record
– Coolest since 2014
– Noteworthy regional warmth
• Ocean: +0.62°C
– 6th warmest Juneon record The global temperature record dates to 1880 (139 years)
Land and Ocean Temperature PercentilesJune 2018
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 3
Jan-June 2018: +0.77°C above average, 4th warmest on record.
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Year-to-date Global Temperaturesfor 2018 and the other nine warmest years on record
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Temperature: 71.5°F, +3.0°F, 3rd warmest June on record
Precipitation: 3.08”, +0.15”, near median June
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• Above-average temperatures in the Southwest, Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast
o Record minimum temperatures across central U.S.
• Below-average conditions in the Northwest and Northeast
• Above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies and Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic
o Significant flash flooding in Upper Midwest, Texas Coast, and Mid-Atlantic
• Below-average rain in parts of the West and South
• Large and destructive wildfires burned across the West
Precipitation Percentiles June 2018Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)
Temperature Percentiles June 2018Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Temperature: 49.4°F, +1.9°F, 14th warmest year to date
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Contiguous U.S. Jan-Jun Temperatures 1895-2018
• Large swings in temperature month to month during 2018 east of the Rockies
• January-June was warmer than average for the West and along the East Coast
• Below-average conditions in the north-central United States
• 25th consecutive year with Jan-Jun temperature above 20th century average
Temperature Percentiles Jan-Jun 2018Period: 1895-2017 (124 years)
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1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
31.0% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 4.6 percentage points since late May)
• Improvement: Drought improved in the Northern Plains, Southeast, and High Plains
• Degradation: Drought expanded in the West, South, central Great Lakes, and Northeast
• Outside CONUS: Drought developed in Hawaii and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Crop Update• Generally, corn and soybeans are in
good shape
• Cold April delayed planting season
• Warm May & June crops progressed quickly, may reach maturity early
• High minimum temperatures in Nebraska and Kansas may negatively impact corn yields
• Kansas and southeast Colorado winter wheat production negatively impacted by climate conditions
Corn showing signs of high temperature stress
(Photo courtesy Dr. Ignacio Ciampitti, Kansas State University)
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Flooding & Severe WeatherMissouri River Flooding
• High mountain/Plains snowpack and heavy spring precipitation resulted in 3rd highest monthly runoff in June in 120 years of record
• Higher-than-average releases from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on all Mainstemprojects is expected through summer/fall
• Minor flooding along the river
Severe Weather in North Dakota, July 8-10th
• Large hail/high winds damaged corn, soybeans, and alfalfa, overturned center pivots near Oakes on the 8th
• EF2 tornado struck RV park in Watford City on the 10th, killing 1 and injuring 28
Destroyed manufactured homes and RVs, Watford City (courtesy NWS Bismarck)
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Wildfires in ColoradoSpring Creek Fire
• Location: South-central Colorado, Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southeast of Great Sand Dunes National Park
• Size: 108,045 acres (as of 7/16)
• Contained: 91% (as of 7/16)
• Currently 3rd largest wildfire in Colorado history
416 Fire
• Location: Southwest Colorado, San Juan National Forest, north of Durango
• Size: 54,129 acres (as of 7/16)
• Contained: 50% (as of 7/16)
• Currently 6th largest wildfire in Colorado history
Spring Creek Fire(photo courtesy Colorado Climate Center via @brit_a22 on Twitter)
The monsoon may help drought and fire conditions, but it increases the risk of flash flooding and mudslides
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Sea surface temperatures
• Above normal SSTs in most of the equatorial Pacific
• Small area of below normal SSTs remains in the eastern Pacific
• Away from the equator, above normal SSTs across the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico
• ENSO neutral conditions are present
ENSO forecast
• ENSO neutral is likely to persist through summer 2018
• The chances of El Niño increase to about70% in winter of 2018-19
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Average Temperature Probability
TotalPrecipitation Probability
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
Average Temperature Probability
TotalPrecipitation Probability
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 13
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July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar
For More Information
TODAY’S PRESENTATION:
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov
• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov
Climate Portal: www.climate.gov
High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu/
NOAA Media Contacts:
• [email protected] ,301-683-1327, (NOAA Communications/HQ)
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