Short-Term Air Quality Forecasts for the Pacific Northwest and Long-Range Global

Change Predictions for the US

Jack Chen

Committee Members: Brian Lamb, Hal Westberg, George Mount, and Alex Guenther

Washington State UniversityMay 4th 2007

• Exposures to elevated levels of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matters increase respiratory illnesses, premature deaths, cardiovascular problems

• Regional haze, degrade visibility

• National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS):O3, CO, Pb, SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5,

Pollutant Concentration Units Averaging Period

O3 80 ppbv 8-hour

PM2.5

15 µg/m3 Annual Mean

35 µg/m3 24-hour

Air Quality Standards

US Regional Air QualityCounties Designated Non-attainment or Maintenance

Most populated areas are in non-attainment or maintenance

“Brown cloud” in Seattle

US EPA (2006)5 NAAQS Pollutants

4 NAAQS Pollutants3 NAAQS Pollutants2 NAAQS Pollutants1 NAAQS Pollutant

Numerical Air Quality Forecasts

• Short-Range Forecasts – hourly air quality predictions for the next 24 hours

• Long-Range Predictions – general air quality conditions 50 years in the future from influence of global change

Air Pollution Chemistry

Clean Air Photochemistry

Urban Pollution Increase Ozone Production

(1) NO2 + hv NO + O

(2) O + O2 O3

(3) O3 + NO NO2 + O2

(4) RH + OH. RO2. + HO2

. + R’CHO

(5) RO2. + NO NO2 + RO.

(6) HO2. + NO NO2 + HO.

NOx + VOC + sunlight O3

NOx (NO+NO2): Combustion sources, soils, lightening

VOC: Combustion sources, solvents, trees, etc

Air Pollution Chemistry

• Primary Emissions:

– Smoke, dust, flyash, pollens, etc.

• Secondary formation:SO2 + [OH., O3, H2O] H2SO4

NO2 + OH. HNO3

N2O5 + H2O 2 HNO3

NH4HSO4, (NH4)3H(SO4)2, (NH4)2SO4

NH4NO3

Aromatic HC or HC-8 + [OH·, NO3·, O3]

SOA

NH3

NOx

VOC

SO2

Numerical Grid Model

Forecast Meteorological Model

Chemical Transport Model

Gridded Biogenic / Anthropogenic Emissions

Forecast Air Quality Conditions

Evaluate with Observational data

California Air Resources Board (1989)

EPA:MCIP CMAQ

Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3

• AIRPACT has been providing hourly air quality forecasts for the Pacific Northwest since May 2001

• O3

• CO

• NO2

• Primary PM tracers • Secondary PM2.5

• PSO4, PNO3, PNH4, PEC, POC

AIRPACT-1/2AIRPACT-3

• State-of-science knowledge in atmospheric chemistry and physics

• Cloud effect on atmospheric chemistry

• Multiphase chemistry (gas, aqueous, aerosol) and aerosol dynamics

• CMAQ has a wide user community with active development and support from the public and EPA

Gridded Emissions

US EPA: (1999)

Forecast Meteorology (MM5)

CALMET/MCIP CALGRID

Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3

Dynamic Initial Conditions

Dynamic Boundary Conditions

2005 Anthropogenic Emissions (SMOKE)

Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions

Gridded Emissions

EPA Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3)

EPACMAQ

WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module

Anthropogenic NOx Emissions

Biogenic VOC Emissions

Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3

AIRPACT-1, AIRPACT-2• AIRPACT-1: 62 x 67 at 4-km• AIRPACT-2: 81 x 138 at 4-km• 13 vertical layers

AIRPACT-3• AIRPACT-3: 95 x 95 at 12-km• 21 vertical layers

(first layer height at 16m)

Elevation

Dairy NH3 Emission Module

WA Dairy NH3 (ton/yr)

Housing 8,634

Storage 5,441

Application 4,364

Total 18,439

OR Dairy NH3 (ton/yr)

Housing 9,469

Storage 5,079

Application 3,420

Total 17,967

Wild and Prescribed Fire Emission from the Forest Service BlueSky System

MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006

BlueSky System at Forest Service

Observed Fire Events

AIRPACT retrieves: fire location, fire size, heat flux, emissions (CO, PM2.5, TOG)

Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006

WSU Pullman

AIRPACT-3 Evaluation

Monitor Network # Station

EPA-AQS O3 30

EPA-AQS PM2.5 (Speciated PM)

37(8)

IMPROVE PM2.5 18

SWCAA PM2.5 4

• August – November 2004

• Covers both ozone and PM2.5 pollution seasons

Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

P/O vs Observed

Timing errors (running 8-hr means)

0.1

2

4

6

1

2

4

6

10

Mo

de

led

/ M

ea

su

red

Ra

tio

806040200Measured (ppbv)

30

25

20

15

10

5

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Co

un

t (%

)

121086420Hour Difference Between Observed and Measured O3 Peak Time

Overall Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

Obs. Avg. 42.9 ppbv

Mod. Avg. 43.0 ppbv

MB 2.7 ppbv

ME 7.2 ppbv

R 0.55

1

1MB

N

i ii

Mod ObsN

1

1ME

N

i ii

Mod ObsN

Ranked Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

Overall 24-hr PM2.5 Performance

EPA-AQS Stations

Obs. Avg. 11 (μg/m3)

Mod. Avg. 13 (μg/m3)

MB 2.0 (μg/m3)

ME 8.0 (μg/m3)

R 0.46

IMPROVE Stations

Obs. Avg. 6.0 (μg/m3)

Mod. Avg. 8.0 (μg/m3)

MB 2.2 (μg/m3)

ME 5.5 (μg/m3)

R 0.53

Stagnation Event

80

60

40

20

0

PM

2.5

(µg

/m3 )

11/05 11/09 11/13 11/17

Observed ModeledSeattle, WA

80

60

40

20

0

PM

2.5

(µg

/m3 )

11/05 11/09 11/13 11/17

Portland, OR

80

60

40

20

0PM

2.5

(µg

/m3 )

11/05 11/09 11/13 11/17

Boise, ID

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mod. Obs. Mod. Obs. Mod. Obs.

Seattle, WA Portland, OR Boise, ID

PNO3 PSO4PEC POCPNH4

(all units in μg/m3)

Long Range Air QualityPredictions for the US

• general air quality conditions 50 years in the future from influence of global change

Impact of Global Change on Regional Air Quality

Forecast Meteorology MM5

EPACMAQ

GriddedEmissions• Anthropogenic• Biogenic• Wild Fire

Simulate two 10-year periodsCurrent case (1990-1999) vs Future case (2045-2054)

• O3

• CO

• NO2

• Primary PM tracers • Secondary PM2.5

Global Climate Model(NCAR-PCM)

Global Chemistry Model (NCAR-MOZART2 )

Global Scale

Long Range Predictions – Domain

Right: Regional Meteorology (MM5) and Air Quality (CMAQ) model domain.

Left: Global Climate (PCM) and Chemistry (MOZART2) model domain.

Global Scenario on Future Air Quality?IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—"Business as usual”

11 billion

230 Mt/yr

+1.5oC

70 Mt/yr

1000

800

600

400

200

pre

ssu

re [m

b]

0.1 1 10 100mixing ratio [ppbv]

O3

NOX

NOY

VOC

Western

1000

800

600

400

200

pre

ssu

re [m

b]

0.1 1 10 100

mixing ratio [ppbv]

Eastern

Western BC [ppbv]

Current Future

O3 38 50 35%

NOX 0.03 0.04 44%

NOY 0.28 0.47 69%

VOC 1.1 2.1 87%

Eastern BC [ppbv]

Current Future

O3 46 59 30%

NOX 0.14 0.22 63%

NOY 0.78 1.16 49%

VOC 5.0 7.3 47%

up to 500 mb

Future Regional Anthropogenic NOx

Current Decade Future Difference

current emissions (percent increase)

USA (1000 ton/day)

anthropogenic NOX 60 (6%)

Future Regional Biogenic VOC

Current DecadeFuture Difference

current emissions (percent change)

USA (1000 ton C/day)

anthropogenic VOC 51 (+50%)

biogenic VOC 160 (-38%)

Current decade: comparison of observed and simulated ozone distributions

EPA – AQS ozone data for 1994-2003 Summer

Current decade daily max 8-hr ozone

(2nd, 20th, median, 80th and 98th percentiles)

Current decade episodic ozone conditions (98th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone)

Model [ppbv] Measured

Mean summer daily max 2-m temperature Current vs Future

Current Future

Difference

(2nd, 20th, median, 80th and 98th percentiles)

Future changes in daily

max 8-hr ozone

Future Changes

daily max 8-Hr ozone (Episodic Condition - 98th Percentile) [ppbv]

Current

Difference

Future

Future ozone changes at select sites

Eight sites across US with 98th percentile observed daily max. 8-hr O3 exceed the EPA 80 ppbv standard

Future Changes in Episodic Ozone Season

20

15

10

5

0Da

ys O

3 >

80

ppb

v

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

20151050

Da

ys Tem

p >

30

oC

Current Future

Average days per months across the eight sites.

Future Changes in Ozone Episode Duration

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Winslow, NJ GtSmokyMt, TNWilmington, OH Denton, TXAlton, MO ChatfieldLake, COCrestline, CA Canby, OR

Consecutive days 8-hr daily max O3 exceed 80 ppbv

% c

han

ge

from

cu

rrent d

eca

de

Summary

• Short-Term air quality forecasts– AIRPACT-3 with One-Atmosphere approach for PNW air quality– Includes dynamic treatment of anthropogenic, biogenic, dairy NH3 and

wildfire emissions– Evaluation showed good forecast performances – Peak ozone values correctly predicted, but over-estimated low levels– PM2.5 concentrations were better captured in urban areas than rural

regions– Good match with PNO3, PNH4 observations but underestimated PSO4

• Long-Range air quality predictions– Coupled global and regional AQ modeling system for the US– System reproduced current observed episodic ozone conditions– Under IPCC-A2 scenario, future 8-hr ozone increase by 5 to 10 ppbv– Larger areas of the US are impacted by ozone >80ppbv– Longer episodic ozone seasons and longer ozone episodes– Future land use have significant impact on biogenic emissions

Acknowledgements

• Advisor: Dr. Brian Lamb

• Committee: Drs. Hal Westberg, George Mount, Alex Guenther

• Funding from NW-AIRQUEST for the AIRPACT project

• Funding from EPA STAR for the long-term AQ predictions project

• Collaborating agencies: WA ECY, SWCAA, NCAR, USDA-FS, UW, EPA-R10

• Staff at the CE department office– Maureen Clausen, Lola Gillespie, Vicki Ruddick, Tom Weber,

and Cyndi Whitmore.

Acknowledgements

• Past and present LAR graduate students– Dr. Mike Barna, Dr. Susan O’Neill, Dr. Guangfeng Jiang– Dr. Joe Vaughan, Dr. Shelley Pressley– Jeremy Avise, Tara Strand, Ying Xie, Farren Thorpe, Matt Porter,

Charleston Ramos, Brian Rumburg, Obie Cambaliza …

• Friends and Family

Questions?

Thank you!

Presentation Outline

• Background

• Short-term air quality forecasts:– Modeling approach– Results

• Long-term air quality predictions:– Modeling approach– Results

• Summary and conclusion

• Acknowledgement and questions

Conservation Equation in an Eulerian Framework

SDRz

CK

zy

CK

yx

CK

xz

CW

y

CV

x

CU

t

C iz

iy

ix

iiii

(1) (2a) (2b) (2c) (3a) (3b) (3c) (4) (5) (6)

(1) Change of pollutant concentration(2a,b) Horizontal Advection(2c) Vertical Advection(3a,b) Horizontal Dispersion(3c) Vertical Diffusion(4) Chemical Reaction(5) Deposition(6) Emission/Source Term

Chemical Transport Model

Aug. 2004 Surface Temp. (oC)

Wind Direction (deg)

Wind Speed (m/s)

Precip (mm)

RH (%)

Mean Bias (MB) -0.3 5 1.6 0.0 4

Mean Error (ME) 2.4 64 2.3 1.7 13

N 32569 24892 25476 12378 23466

Nov. 2004 Surface Temp. (oC)

Wind Direction (deg)

Wind Speed (m/s)

Precip (mm)

RH (%)

Mean bias (MB) 0.3 8 1.8 -0.4 3

Mean error (ME) 2.2 70 2.4 2.1 14

N 32956 24416 24978 10887 22931

12-km MM5 Forecast Performance

1

1MB

N

i ii

Mod ObsN

1

1ME

N

i ii

Mod ObsN

8

6

4

2

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3)

86420

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS IMPROVE SWCAA

PEC50

40

30

20

10

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3)

50403020100

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS IMPROVE SWCAA

POC

10

8

6

4

2

0M

od

ele

d (

µg

/m3 )

1086420

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS SWCAA

PNO35

4

3

2

1

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3 )

543210

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS SWCAA

PNH420

15

10

5

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3 )

20151050

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS SWCAA

PSO4

POC

15

10

5

0

PO

C (

µg

/m3 )

11/01 11/06 11/11 11/16 11/21 11/26 12/01

Observed Modeled

PEC

PSO4

4

3

2

1

0

PE

C (

µg

/m3 )

11/01 11/06 11/11 11/16 11/21 11/26 12/01

Observed Modeled

10

8

6

4

2

0

PS

O4

(µ

g/m

3 )

11/01 11/06 11/11 11/16 11/21 11/26 12/01

Observed Modeled

Columbia River Gorge (Bonneville Dam)

US Regional EmissionsCurrent (1000 tons/day) & future/current ratio

Area Mobile Off-road Point Fire Biogenic

CO 45 1.31

184 0.99

61 1.14

11 1.00

1.5 1.25

14 0.97

NOx 5 1.57

23 0.99

11 1.11

23 1.00

N/A 4.0 1.02

VOC 24 2.00

15 0.98

7 1.36

5

1.00

0.1 1.24

160 0.62

Average daily max 8-hr ozone and 98th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone

Future changes in average daily max 8-hr ozone and 98th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone

Future Biogenic Emissions from Land Use, Land Cover Changes

• Simulated future July months with different vegetation distributions

Case 1 Current decade

Case 2 Future with current vegetation

Case 3 Future decade

Case 4 Future with afforestation

Case 2 – Case 1 Case 4 – Case 1

Isoprene Emission Difference

Change LULC on Future Biogenic Emissions

40

30

20

10

Mo

note

rpen

e [G

gC

da

y-1]

Case1 Case2 Case3 Case4

120

100

80

60

40

20

Isop

ren

e [G

g d

ay-1

]

Case1 Case2 Case3 Case4

Total Continental Emissions

Change LULC on Future Ozone and BSOA

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0B

SO

A [µ

g/m

3 ]Case1 Case2 Case3 Case4

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

Ozo

ne [

ppb

v]

Case1 Case2 Case3 Case4

Average Continental Concentrations

Long Range Forecast – Current Status

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

de

g C

WA

_S

po

ka

ne

WA

_B

ell

ing

ha

m

WA

_O

lym

pia

WA

_S

ea

Ta

c

OR

_P

ort

lan

d

OR

_E

ug

en

e

OR

_S

ale

m

OR

_P

en

dle

ton

ID_

Bo

ise

ID_

Le

wis

ton

1284

Da

ys

Current Decade MM5 Future Decade MM5

Summer Daily Max Temperature Range and Days Per Year Temp > 30 degC

Average temperature across PNW showed 2oC increase