Science MissionDirectorate

Earth Science at NASA: Opportunities, Challenges, and Accomplishments

Presentation to ESIP Federation

January 4 , 2006Jack A. Kaye, Ph.D.Director Research & Analysis ProgramEarth-Sun System Division

2

Overview of Talk

o NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content

o NASA Earth Science Connectionso Budget Updateo Strategy Developmento Program Evolution and Issueso Summary

3

4

National Goals for Space Exploration

Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond.

Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations.

Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration.

Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.

Study the Earth system from space and develop new space-based and related capabilities for this purpose.*

ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

* Added in “The New Age of Exploration” to address other Presidential initiatives and directives not covered in the Vision for Space Exploration

5

Exploration Systems

Space Operations

Science

Aeronautics Research

Mission Directorates

Ames Research Center

Dryden Flight Research Center

Glenn Research Center

Goddard Space Flight Center

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Johnson Space Flight Center

Kennedy Space Center

Langley Research Center

Marshall Space Flight Center

Chief of Staff

Inspector General

White House Liaison

Office of the AdministratorAdministrator

Deputy Administrator

Associate Administrator

CentersMission Support

Offices

Chief Financial Officer

General Counsel

Chief Information Officer

Innovative Partnership Program

Office of the Chief Engineer

Prog Analysis & Evaluation NASA Advisory

CouncilAerospace

Safety AdvisoryCouncil

Office of theChief of S&MA

V3

NASA Shared Services

Institutional Planning and Investments

Office of infrastructure & Administration

Office of Human Capital Management

Office of Diversity & Equal Opportunity

Office of Security and Program Protection

Office of Procurement

Office of Small & Disadvantaged Business

Utilization

Education

Public Affairs

Legislative Affairs

External Affairs

Ofc of Institutions & Management

Strategic Communications

Integrated EnterpriseMgt Prog

Chief Medical Officer

6

NASA Earth Science Research is Part of an End-to-End Program of Science for Society

7

With the Launch of Aura, the 1st Series of EOS is Now Complete

8

Overview of Talk

o NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content

o NASA Earth Science Connectionso Budget Updateo Strategy Developmento Program Evolution and Issueso Summary

9

NSTC Structure

National Scienceand Technology Council

ScienceCommittee

Environment & NaturalResources Committee

Homeland & NationalSecurity Committee

TechnologyCommittee

Subcommittee on Global Change Research

Ecological SystemsSubcommittee

Subcommittee onDisaster

Reduction

Subcommittee onWater Availability &

Quality

Air Quality ResearchSubcommittee

Toxics & Risk AssessmentSubcommittee

Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and

Technology(also reports to Committee on Science)

Interagency Working Group onEarth Observations (IWGEO)

Subcommittee on Healthand the Environment

(also reports to Committee on Science and Commission onHomeland and National Security

Biodiversity and EcosystemInformatics Working Group

Interagency Working Group onEndocrine Disruptors

Interagency Working Group onMercury

10

11

OAP Ocean Governance Structure.

12

U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) Near Term Opportunities

Data Management System for Earth Observations

Improved Observations for Disaster Warnings

Global Land Observation System

Sea Level Observation System

National Integrated Drought Information System

Air Quality Assessment and Forecast System

13

Research - Operations Transition

o Have significant interest (sponsor/stakeholder) in “Research to Operations Transition”• NRC referred to the “Valley of Death”• Identified by agencies as a challenge• High profile issues attract attention (e.g., TRMM)• Structures in place helping on some aspects (e.g., Joint

Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, SPoRT)

o Need to be able to deal with both “weather” and “climate” issues

o Note this is tied in with NPOESS for many observations

o NASA-NOAA working group spun up to work thiso Congressional language (NASA 2006 Authorization

Bill) has requirements in this area

14

Overview of Talk

o NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content

o NASA Earth Science Connectionso Budget Updateo Strategy Developmento Program Evolution and Issueso Summary

15Budget Authority in $ Millions

FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010SCIENCE 5,527.2 5,476.3 5,960.3 6,503.4 6,853.0 6,797.6

Solar System Exploration 1,858.1 1,900.5 2,347.7 2,831.9 2,999.0 3,066.2 Discovery 180.6 168.7 219.2 301.5 319.7 334.2 New Frontiers 210.8 158.6 157.7 162.6 259.4 259.0 Technology 130.7 95.7 129.3 128.0 129.1 130.4 Deep Space Mission Systems (DSMS) 257.7 257.4 251.6 260.6 267.7 273.4 Solar System Research 345.2 362.5 370.2 374.3 374.8 381.8 Mars Exploration 681.1 723.1 943.5 1,233.4 1,232.0 1,260.2 Robotic Lunar Exploration 52.0 134.6 276.1 371.4 416.2 427.0

The Universe 1,513.2 1,512.2 1,531.5 1,539.4 1,495.0 1,406.7 Navigator 233.7 199.4 246.6 394.5 432.1 434.1 James Webb Space Telescope 311.8 371.6 372.5 328.6 227.0 189.4 Hubble Space Telescope 215.7 190.7 218.3 143.2 170.2 95.0 Stratospheric Observatory Infrared Astronomy 50.9 48.3 57.1 59.4 60.2 60.4 GLAST 107.0 99.4 66.8 24.0 19.3 25.8 Discovery 125.5 117.9 76.5 16.8 13.6 14.5 Explorer 82.0 100.8 76.1 59.4 11.7 9.5 Universe Research 331.6 315.7 311.5 309.2 302.8 296.4 International Space Science Collaboration 13.3 13.0 22.2 39.8 38.4 34.1 Beyond Einstein 41.8 55.5 83.9 164.5 219.6 247.4

Earth-Sun System 2,155.8 2,063.6 2,081.2 2,132.2 2,359.0 2,324.8 Earth Systematic Missions 300.5 181.9 165.7 198.8 240.8 162.7 Living with a Star 202.5 234.0 241.0 225.3 292.0 294.8 Solar Terrestrial Probes 100.3 78.8 94.8 140.8 125.1 128.4 Explorer Program 103.6 117.1 106.8 137.3 208.6 197.2 Earth System Science Pathfinder 107.9 135.5 166.2 114.7 203.5 232.3 Earth-Sun Multi-Mission Operations 334.3 268.3 269.5 277.1 280.4 285.7 Earth-Sun Research 818.6 845.1 815.7 811.8 798.8 802.5 Applied Sciences 43.5 52.2 51.5 50.8 48.9 54.3 Education and Outreach 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.8 25.4 27.6 Earth-Sun Technology 121.8 127.4 146.6 151.8 135.6 139.3

Science Program Summary: Proposed FY06 Budget

16

Future Budget Outlook

o Statement in Letter from NASA Administrator to OMB Director:

“Having weighed various options, NASA’s preferred approach to the FY 207 budget, within current top-line constraints, is to hold NASA’s Science budget fixed at FY 2006 levels for the next five years in order to allow for continued assembly of the International Space Station with the Space Shuttle until its retirement in 2010, and to provide the funds needed to develop the Crew Exploration Vehicle and launch systems by 2012.”

17

FY06 Budget Bill

o Conference Report made some revisions to Administration’s request for NASA Earth Science FY06 Funding

Add $30M for Glory mission (was ‘instrument build only’)

Add $15M for Earth Science applications program for competitively selected projects

o Earth Science will be impacted by a number of changes to Science, Aeronautics, and Technology account, including

$90M general reduction $26M reduction in corporate G&A Large number of items of Congressional direction

18

Overview of Talk

o NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content

o NASA Earth Science Connectionso Budget Updateo Strategy Developmento Program Evolution and Issues o Summary

19

Strategy Development

o NASA Strategic Roadmaps (Winter-Spring, 2005)• Completion Accelerated; Use Different from originally

anticipated o NRC Decadal Survey

• Interim Report• Forthcoming Final Report (late fall, 2006)

o Reconstitution of Advisory Committee Structure•Creation of Working Groups

o Foundation Roadmapping

20

NRC Decadal Survey

o At request of NASA and NOAA, NRC is carrying out “decadal survey” under title “Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future”• “The Space Studies Board, in consultation with other units of

the NRC, will lead a study to generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications community regarding a systems approach to space-based and ancillary observations that encompasses the research programs of NASA and the related operational programs of NOAA.” [Note: USGS added]

o Key goals of study:• Articulate priorities for Earth system science and the space-based

observational approaches to address those priorities.• Establish individual plans and priorities within the sub-disciplines of

the Earth sciences as well as an integrated vision and plan for the Earth sciences as a whole.

o SchedulePhase 1 short report -- released Spring 2005Phase 2 complete report -- Late 2006

21

NRC Decadal Survey, cont.

o Report made strong case for importance of NASA Earth science to nation and quality of program

o Report called attention to cancellation, delays, and uncertainty in program, especially in relation to major missions (e.g., GIFTS, Glory, NPP, OSTM, LDCM, OVWM), and need for opportunity for future missions

o Report noted importance of technology investments in key areas (Wind Lidar, Wide Swath Altimetry, InSAR)

o Report emphasized importance of vigorous research and analysis program

o Subsequent Discussions emphasize need for articulating societal drivers for scientific research• Structure of report reflects this emphasis

22

NRC Decadal Survey, cont

Table 3.1 Canceled, Descoped, or Delayed Earth Observation MissionsMission Measurement Societal Benefit StatusGlobal Precipitation Precipitation Reduced vulnerability to floods and DelayedMeasurement (GPM) droughts; improved capability to

manage water resources in aridregions; improved forecasts of

hurricanes Atmospheric Soundings Temperature and Protection of life and property CanceledFrom Geostationary Orbit water vapor through improved weather forecasts(GIFTS - Geostationary and severe storm warningImaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer) Wind speed and Improved severe weather warnings CanceledOcean Vector Winds direction near the to ships at sea; improved crop (active scatterometer ocean surface planning and yields through betterFollow-on to QuikSCAT) predictions of El NiñoLandsat Data Continuity- Land cover Monitoring of deforestation; Canceled Bridge mission (to fill gap identification of mineral resources;Between Landsat-7 and tracking of the conversion ofNPOESS) agricultural land to other usesGlory Optical properties of Improved scientific understanding of Canceled

aerosols; solar factors that force climate changeirradiance

Wide Swath Ocean Sea level in two Monitoring of coastal currents, eddies, Instrument Altimeter (on the Ocean dimensions and tides, all of which affect fisheries, canceled - Surface Topography navigation, and ocean climate descope of an Mission; OSTM) enhanced OSTM

23

Reconstituting Advisory Committee Structure

o Historical Earth Science and Applications Advisory Committee (ESSAAC) was to be merged with Sun-Earth Connection Advisory Subcommittee (SECAS) into a single Earth-Sun System Subcommittee (ES3); joint meetings held

o NASA Advisory Council (NAC) expired and subcommittees expired with them

o Agency is in process of reconstituting NAC and likely having five subcommittees (4 divisions assuming Earth and Sun split, plus 1 for planetary protection)

o Process is underway to identify candidates for an Earth Science Subcommittee (ESS)

o Most likely establish working groups under ESS led by members - like space science MOWGs, organized around focus areas

24

Foundation Roadmapping

o Earth Science looking to follow lead from Space Science and develop “foundation roadmaps”

o These are “far-looking” plans, with special focus on identifying candidate space missions, with some engineering analysis done to help scope out

o For earth science, a particular challenge is to understand how to balance scope of missions - • Large, multi-goal missions/instruments (e.g., Terra, Aqua)• Small, focused missions (e.g., ESSPs)

o Community involvement is needed; typically would report through advisory subcommittee

o Scope would go beyond NRC Decadal Survey and be specific to NASA

25

Overview of Talk

o NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content

o NASA Earth Science Connectionso Budget Updateo Strategy Developmento Program Evolution and Issueso Summary

26

Program Content and Related Issues

o Evolution and Associated Issues in Flight Programo Suborbital Scienceo EOSDIS Evolutiono Computing, Modeling, and Data Assimilationo Implementation Activities

27

Program Content and Related Issues

o Evolution and Associated Issues in Flight Program• First Series EOS spacecraft complete with launch of Aura

(7/04)• Senior Review held to deal with extended operations for

missions beyond primary lifetime and subsequent terminations• Cloudsat/CALIPSO launch delayed - NET 2/06• 2 more ESSP missions successfully completed mission

confirmation review OCO - carbon dioxide column Aquarius - Sea Surface Salinity (with Argentina) Hydros backup mission possibility ended

Glory mission passed confirmation review• NPOESS - NPP delays (min., 18 months, poss. 30) risk

discontinuity with Aqua (note move to PM), further delays to C1, with major programmatic uncertainty (e.g., Nunn-McCurdy threshold being met)

• Landsat - EOP reversed decision (12/23/05) to fly on NPOESS and directed free flyer, but note risk to continuity

28

Earth Science Senior Review

o Earth Science followed Space Science process of having “senior review” for looking at mission extension for operating missions

o First one considered 12 missions that would be beyond prime phase in FY06-07

o Results rank-ordered largely in 3 groups:o Highest - Terra, GRACE, Jasono Middle - QuikScat, ACRIM, TRMM, GPS Constellation, TOMS,

GRACEo Lowest - ERBS, SAGE III, UARS

o Try to accommodate requested funding profiles for all but lowest category

o UARS and ERBS terminatedo Reduce scope of SAGE III science effort o Repeat process every 2 yearso Alternate with review process for data products

29NASA & NOAA jointly funding NRC studies on improving transition

Transition from Research to Operations

NPP NPOESSSeaWiFS Terra Aqua

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation NCEP

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center NWS

Ob

serv

atio

nD

ata

As

sim

ACRIMsat SORCE Glory NPOESS

TOMS AURA NPOESS

Jason OSTM NOAA/EUMETSAT

Landsat 7 LDCM In work

GIFTS* GOES-R

Tropo Winds TBD

Imaging and Sounding

Solar Irradiance, Ozone, and Aerosols

Ocean Surface Topography

Land Cover/Land Use Change

Tec

hIn Formulation

In operation

Under Development

Atmospheric Constituent ProfilesUARS AURA TBD* Completing

instrument - flight opportunity, if any, TBD

Tech Development

30

Sub-Orbital Science

o In past, budget process led to reduction of funds for sub-orbital science, with emphasis on accelerating incorporation of UAVs into earth science program

• UAV science campaigns had limited impact

• Partnership with Aeronautics Mission Directorate on UAVs is being reviewed in context of their changes

o DC-8 has been transferred to U. North Dakota for operation

o Planned grounding of ER-2s deferred, but resource base limited

• Note use of ER-2 in TCSP (summer, 2005) and plans for 2007

o Recent investment in WB-57 upgrades• Gets significant use, esp. for Aura/planned A-train studies

o Instruments and Platforms used in Katrina response

31

Evolution of EOSDIS Elements - Vision for 2015

NASA’s research communities have access to all EOS data through services at least as rich as any contemporary science information system, for example:

•Data access latency is no longer an impediment •The physical location of data storage is irrelevant•Finding data is based on common search engines (e.g., Google2015)•Services are primarily invoked by machine-to-machine interfaces•Multiple data and metadata streams can be seamlessly combined•Custom processing (e.g., subsetting, averaging, reprojection) provides only the data

needed, the way they are needed •Best practice standard interfaces and protocols are universally employed

The research and value-added provider communities use EOS data

interoperably with any other relevant data sources (e.g., NPOESS, METOP, GPM,

numerical models, in situ systems) and systems (e.g., Global Earth Observation

System of Systems).

The EOS archive holdings are regularly peer reviewed for scientific merit:•Procedures for such reviews have been developed and tested over a decade •Derived products that are not deemed scientifically useful are phased out.

32

Computing

o NASA is capitalizing on its recent investment in Project Columbia at Ames Research Center

o NASA did solicitation of computing opportunities and allocated time on that basis

o NASA now looking to better integrate availability of computing resources into proposal evaluation process

o NASA considering longer-term approach to computing - both for high end research (ARC) and production (GSFC)

• Resource requirements to keep NASA at frontier of computing capability are significant - and continuing

33

Integrating Earth Science in Directorate NRA

o ROSES has numerous elements, with opening dates throughout the year, organized by division (Earth-Sun integrated)

Appendix  Science Program Element   NOI/Step-1* Due  Proposal Due A.2 Land Cover/Land Use Change 4/28/2005  8/1/2005 A.3 Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazônia 3/10/2005 4/26/2005A.4Terrestrial Ecology and Biodiversity 7/19/2005 9/12/2005A.5 Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry 5/2/2005 7/1/2005A.6 North American Carbon Program 10/14/2005 12/15/2005A.7 Remote Sensing Science for Carbon and Climate 6/3/2005 8/3/2005A.8 Ocean Vector Winds Science Team 4/1/2005 6/1/2005A.9 Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and Cryosat 3/25/2005 5/25/2005A.10CloudSat and CALIPSO Science Team … 5/2/2005 7/1/2005A.11 NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study 10/5/2005 11/16/2005A.12 Terrestrial Hydrology 11/9/2005 1/18/2006A.14 Atmospheric Composition 4/29/2005 6/15/2005A.15 Earth Surface and Interior 5/27/2005 7/27/2005A.16 Solar and Heliospheric Physics 12/9/2005 2/10/2006A.17 Geospace Science 5/20/2005 7/22/2005A.21Living with a Star Targeted Research and Technology 7/8/2005 9/9/2005A.24 Decision Support through Earth-Sun Science Res. Results 7/20/2005 11/22/2005 A.25 New Investigator Program in Earth-Sun System Science 6/30/2005 8/31/2005A.26 Adv. Collab. Connections for Earth-Sun System Sci. 3/14/2005 5/20/2005A.28 Advanced Component Technology 2/28/2005 4/29/2005A.29 Virtual Observatories for Solar and Space Physics Data 8/29/2005 10/31/2005A.30 LWS TRT: NASA/NSF Partnership for Collab.Space Weather Mod. 10/14/2005 12/2/2005

Note: elements with no proposals requested in CY2005 not shown!

34

Selection Statistics for From FY04 NRAs

o Participation in Research Program Involves Significant Institutional Mixo Distribution of PIs from 2004 Earth Science Research Opportunities:

# Rec #Sel. NASA Univ. OG P/NPCarbon Cycle Science  301 59 8 37 5 2Earth System Sci. Fellowships 209 57 0 55 0 2Oceans and Ice  293 53 23 18 3 8Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes  105* 25 9 11 5 0NASA Energy and Water Cycle 101 33 9 19 1 4Integrated Solutions for K-16 and Informal Educ. 147 31 4 26 0 3Earth Science Outreach Investigator Awards   24 2 0 0 0 2Modeling, Analysis and Prediction - Climate Variability and Change  225 65 27 31 5 2 Instrument Incubator Program  82 23 15 6 0 3Decision Support CAN - Applied Sciences 172 34 6 13 8 7

* Does not include proposals submitted to radiation science part that was not carried out

35

Overview of Talk

o NASA Strategy and Organization and Earth Science Program Content

o NASA Earth Science Connectionso Budget Updateo Strategy Developmento Program Evolution and Issueso Summary

36

Summary

o NASA’s Earth Science program has a critical role in implementing three major Presidential directives in addition to the VSE:• Climate Change Research via CCSP• Global Earth Observation via IEOS & GEOSS• Ocean Action Plan

o NASA’s commitment to climate research and CCSP remains strong in the midst of its other priorities in this challenging budget environment

o Implementation of program is being carried out in evolutionary way, including adopting best practices from former Space Science

o While Agency and Inter-agency planning efforts continue (as they must), we eagerly await the final report of the NRC Decadal Survey for community guidance on scientific and observing priorities