j street volume 284

7/24/2019 J Street Volume 284

1/10

ex

rketView

1

mpanyUpdate 2

undthe

nomy 3

wledgeCorner 3

tualFund 4

mmodityCorner 5

exCorner 6

ortCard 7

rtTermCallStatus 8

or&Contributor

rgi Shah

cialContributors

eshTrivedi

tyaNahar

suggestions,feedback

queries

[email protected]

Market View:

Third Budget Of NDA Government - Expectations

The talk regarding fiscal prudent and consolidation is going on since last one month. The achieve 3.5% fiscal deficit looks difficult but can be achieved considering windfall gains due to stoil prices in last two months. On back of this windfall gains the chances of meeting the fiscal targbrighten. It is also important after budget to pass certain important bills like Bankruptcy Law aand the market is eyeing for the same. If the fiscal prudent is met with, the RBI may also think torates by 0.5% and pave the way for faster credit growth.

Some important sectors which can be benefited by the budget proposals can be,

Light Commercial Vehicles - The thrust of The Government to phase out old commercial due to various reasons including the pollution will benefit the sector. The end of mining relat

problems has also given the boost to this sector.Cement & Infra - Since the inception, The Modi Government has given top priority to infras

projects including roads, rails, bridges, ports, aviation, etc. which will be continued in thisalso and will support the cement sector. The proposal to simplify the excise duty structure mbenefit the sector. The aggressive stance taken by the road and railway minister may alsosome infrastructure & capital goods companies. The proposal to setup a Tribunal to addrinfra related legal issues may help the whole sector to reduce unnecessary delays and bottle

Consumption & Rural Spending - To offset the impact of deficit monsoon, The Governmentto increase the rural spending through various routs. On the back of this Government move tors related to rural spending will be benefited.

PSU Banks - Proposalto increase the allocation towards recapitalization of PSU Banks is unand will benefit the sector. Increased spending and thrust on housing sector will benefit thgrowth. The proposal to change the income tax exemption limits may also improve the dem

bank credit in housing sector.

The proposal to reduce the corporate tax by 1% is already factored in. As such there are verypectations from budget by the market. The same fact will help the market to consolidate at this olevel if the budget is reasonably good for the corporate sector.

Post Budget View

In our view The Finance Ministry has done an excellent job by striking a good balance betweediscipline and growth expectation. Remaining within the planned limits of fiscal deficit, The Finanister has given a necessary push to rural spending and required thrust to agriculture sector whpercolate to bottom level and will revive the growth. The fiscal discipline will open the gates for mto aggressive rate cut by RBI in near future. The rise in infra spending and commitment to do mthis front will augur well for the sector. Though the capital allocation of 25000 crore to the PSU bless than expectation, it can easily be increased going forward depending on the circumstances

the circumstances, the market is well prepared to run on less uncertain terrain considering lesstainty at global level. Removing or changing the Long Term Capital Gain exemption has proverumor and given an another reason to market to celebrate. As the market is near to its medium tetom level, there are every chances that on back of short covering and delivery buying, it can maggressively.

Kamal Jhaveri

MD- Jhaveri Securities

1 -

284arch,,2016


2/10

2-

Company Basics

E Code 520051

E Symbol JAMNAAUTO

UITY ( in Cr.) 39.74

T.CAP ( in Cr.) 1030.03

Financial Basics

FV () 5.00

EPS () (TTM) 7.41

P/E (x) (TTM) 17.48

P/BV (x) (TTM) 5.17

BETA 1.3666

RONW (%) 11.63%

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name % Holdin

Foreign 0.52

Institutions 2.89

Promoters 46.45

Govt. Holding 0.00

Public & Others 50.14

Non Promoter 0.00

mpany Overview

mna Auto Industries Limited is the largest manufacturer of Tapered Leaf and Parabolic Springs for Comm

hicles (CVs) in India. It has been a trusted and preferred supplier of Leaf and Parabolic Springs to all maj

nufacturers. JAI is the only Indian company to provide a complete range of automotive suspension solut

mmercial vehicles.

estment rational

&HCV-fastest growing amongst all automotive segments

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) sub segment, including export sales, bounced back

t growth of 17.4% YoY in FY15 after two years of decline. This was presence of MNC players, the indust

ce increased importance on technologically advanced and value added products. Also, the aftermarket w

important growth and profitability driver for the industry with customers preference for quality br

ducts.

L is a leader in spring manufacturer in India

is one of the world's leading players in automobile suspension solutions and amongst the world's top

nufacturers of Multileaf springs with a growing presence in Parabolic Springs, Lift Axles and Air Suspen

companmy is Supplying to Global and Domestic Commercial Vehicle Original Equipment Manufac

h a successful track record of consistently delivering best in class quality.

ong distribution network and marquee clients portfolios

mna has built up a strong dealer network, through its subsidiary - Jai Suspension Systems LLP (JSS LL

r the country to support growing domestic After Market demand. The company sells springs under th

nd in the After Market and its products command premium.

uation : JAMNAAUTO is trading at 121. We recommend Buy with target price of 181 , valuing

FY18E EPS of 9.07.The stock currently trades at 17.60x of FY16E, 16.12x of FY17E and 14.66x of FY18E

mpany Update : Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.

284arch,,2016


3/10

3-

eekly Market Recap :

Meanwhile, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu kept freight rate and passenger fare unchanged in the Railway Budget for 2resented in the Lok Sabha on Thursday, 25 February 2015.

The Railways Minster announced three more dedicated freight corridors (DFCs) in the Budget. The Railways has proponcrease the electrification budget of railways by 50% in FY 2017.

The Economic Survey 2015-16 tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday, 26 February 2016, set a widef 7% to 7.75% for projected GDP growth for 2016-17, with downside risks because of global economic slowdown.

TC dropped 4.54% on concerns that the government may hike tax on all tobacco products in the Union Budget 2016-17 0%.

arket Eye Week ahead :

Public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in action as the next review of fuel prices is due at the end of Febru

The next major trigger for the stock market is Union Budget 2016-17, which will be unveiled in the Parliament by the finance Arun Jaitley on Monday, 29 February 2016.

Auto companies will be in focus as these companies will start unveiling sales figures for February from Tuesday, 1 March 201

On global front, Market Economics will unveil data on manufacturing PMIs for China, Japan, Eurozone and US among others fmonth of February on Tuesday, 1 March 2016,

Events / Factors to Watch

Mon: Union Budget 2016-17

Tue : Auto sales data

Depositary Receipt

A depositary receipt is a negotiable financial instrument issued by a bank to represent a foreign company's publicly traded seA depository receipt trades on a local stock exchange, but a custodian bank in the foreign country holds the actual shares.

Two common forms of depository receipts are the American Depository Receipt (ADR) and Global Depository Receipt (GADR is listed and traded on exchanges based in the United States, while a GDR can be traded on established non-U.S. marks London and Singapore.

round The World

284arch,,2016

owledge Corner :


4/10

utual Fund Corner

4-

Source : - www.valueresearchon

nd Name

heme Name Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96

C Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd

pe Tax Planning

egory Open-ended and Equity

nch Date March 1996

nd Manager Ajay Garg

Assetsn crore )

Rs. 1928.2 crore as on Jan 31, 2016

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Sector Weights Fund

Financial 23

Automobile 16

Services 12

Healthcare 8

Engineering 7.

Technology 6.

Chemicals 5.FMCG 5.

Diversified 4.

Energy 3.

Composition (%)

Equity 97

Debt 2

Cash -0

Risk Analysis

Volatility Measures

Standard Deviation 15

Sharpe Ratio 0

Beta 0

R-Squared 0

Alpha 11

tory 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Rs) 86.06 128.10 137.07 122.74

l Return (%) 9.10 54.54 9.15 -10.45

ifty 50 2.34 23.15 13.21 -1.19

&P BSE 100 4.72 19.07 10.63 -0.22

k (Fund/Category) 11/37 19/73 7/73 24/81

eek High (Rs) 86.06 128.12 143.72 -

Week Low (Rs) 68.31 78.21 126.69 -

Assets (Rs.Cr) 1401.31 1808.99 1947.66 -

ense Ratio (%) 2.42 2.32 2.38 -

Fund StyleInvestment StyleGrowth Blend Value

Large

Medi

Sma

284arch,,2016

nd Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

FundCNX Nify

based to 10,000)


5/10

mmodity Corner

5-

DAMENTAL: Last week bullion prices ended with losses where gold prices dropped by over half percent losses and silver prices dropped 3% slipped as the dollar and global shares rose, but fund buying persisted as investors expected a G20 summit would produce little in the

dinated stimulus program. Prices have largely remained in consolidation after stretching into a high at 1263 earlier in the month. U.S. Coartment report showed that the economy expanded at a 1% rate in the fourth quarter, up from an estimate of 0.7% growth last month. Concwing global economy could eventually push the United States into recession eased as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed less ted in the fourth quarter. Financial leaders from G20 nations gathered in Shanghai against a backdrop of worsening economic conditions ader consensus on how to fix the problems. Worries about the strength of the U.S. economy, and the pace of further rate increases by the UReserve, continue to provide support for the metal. Since the start of the year, tumbling Chinese stock markets have also stoked demand ears about the strength of the worlds second-largest economy fueled haven buying. But those fears have cooled as economic data and e have stabilized in recent weeks. Gold demand in Asia remained subdued this week as buyers were sceptical about the sustainability of th

rally, with the Indian market falling to record discounts as consumers postponed purchases in expectation of a cut in the import tax. Asiacurbed purchases since mid-January as spot gold prices have spiked to a one-year high amid a tumble in global stocks that stoked dem

safe-haven metal. A stronger-than-expected revision to U.S. 4Q GDP and a pickup in the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), terred gauge of inflation, fueled strength in the greenback as market participants reprised expectations for higher rates from the central baweeks uptick in PCE, a stronger print on the employment report could further bring-in interest rate expectations as the central bank eve its dual mandate of fostering maximum employment & price stability.OMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 29200 SL 28980 TGT 29800-30200.BUY SILVER ON DROP @ 35500 SL 34700 TGT 36500-37800

DAMENTAL : Base metals prices on weekly ended with gains recovering on Friday as investors hoped for a recovery in metals demand ger than expected U.S. economic data and a G20 policymakers meeting, except nickel prices that ended with more than one and half

es. Industrial metals joined rallies in oil and share markets as investors put fears about a struggling global economy on the back burner. Uer spending rose solidly in January while fourth-quarter economic growth was revised up to 1 percent, higher than expected. Copper invenE warehouses leapt 35,622 to 276,904 tonnes, up 14.8% to a record high since the launch of SHFE copper futures contract in 1993. The er stocks on the SHFE is due mainly to higher imports by traders. Chinas refined copper imports soared to an all-time high of 3.68 million t, up 2.5% from 2014. Nickel prices that ended with losses as prices after the update from World Bank that forecast has been decline by

el market prices, which means uncertainty for one Finnish mine that produces nickel as its main output. The World Bank recently adjusted cast from summer 2015. Last month, World Bank estimated the nickel price in 2020 would be about 15% lower than they projected it woul However, Terrafame is holding strong on its positive cash flow projections for 2017-2018 despite the World Banks updated forecast. Sres Exchange is expected to further expand its nickel storing capacity to meet growing demand for nickel deliveries. As of now, nickel for de SHFE climbed to 61,398 tonnes. The bourse, after increasing its storing capacity by 30,000 tonnes last October, is estimated to grow its

nother 20,000 tonnes to 90,000 tonnes. Copper demand growth in China slowed last year to about 2 percent and is not expected to improvy this year. China accounts for about half of global demand estimated at around 22 million tonnes. Stock markets rose as G20 policymaken Shanghai sought common ground on how to reboot a struggling global economy in the face of renewed financial and political risks. Zed more than 20 percent from a six-year low reached in January, after Glencore Plc and Nyrstar NV last year announced production cutsa slump in prices.OMMENDATION : SELL COPPER @ 326 SL 335 TGT 316-308. SELL ZINC @ 122 SL 126 TGT 118-114 ELL NICKEL @ 595 SL 610 TL ALUMINIUM @ 110 SL 114 TGT 107.50-104.SELL LEAD @ 122 SL 128 TGT 116-112

DAMENTAL : Last week, crude oil prices ended with over 5% gains driven by disruptions to crude supplies and Wall Street's gains fr

omic data. In international market prices turned negative soon after the release of weekly U.S. oil rig data by industry firm Baker Hugwed a 10th weekly drop in the rig count. The data was positive to oil, but traders and investors chose to lock in profits. Oil was up from theweek after data showing a slide in shale crude output and strong gasoline demand in the United States. Also bolstering prices was a meetinfor mid-March by at least four major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, to discuss a production freeze at January's highs. On Friday, thlly surged on news that pipeline outages in Iraq and Nigeria will remove more than 800,000 barrels of crude per day from global supply forweeks. The disruptions should offset recent increases to supply from Iran. Investors on Friday continued to react to comments from Elogio Dy after the Venezuelan oil minister reiterated that OPEC will host a meeting next month to discuss a potential production freeze among a r exporters. The summit, Del Pino, told broadcast network Telesur, will include 10 nations, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qa

ementioned trio, as well as Venezuela, agreed in principle to an agreement last week, in which the four nations have pledged to limit their his year to levels reached in January. While natural gas prices ended with over 6% losses as concerns about the heavily oversupplied mad to keep pressure on prices. Warmer-than-average temperatures have cut demand for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel, forcing prodmore gas in storage. Natural-gas inventories fell by 117 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the week ended Feb. 19, the Energy Informationon said Thursday, less than the 138-bcf decline expected. But a glut of natural gas around the world has pushed down international prie U.S. liquefied natural gas less competitive.OMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2150 SL 2000 TGT 2280-2400. SELL NAT.GAS @ 125 SL 132 TGT 116-108

BULLION

BASE METALS

ENERGY

284arch,,2016


6/10

4 -

mmodity Corner

USD/INR

6-

rex Corner

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

rket Eye Week ahead :

USD-INR is approaching the all time high of 69.22 in August 2013 at the height of the twin deficit concerns. Theupee rout has been nonstop and one of the two main underperforming currencies in Asian currencies so far th

Strong US data pushed the USD much higher across most currencies on Friday. Utilize declines in USD INRMarch Futures contract. Resistance will be seen at 69.22 levels.

Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl

SD/INR 68.62 68.17 68.91 69.36 69.65 69.21 68.47 69


PY/INR 60.61 60.08 61.01 61.54 61.94 61.42 60.49 61


BP/INR 95.08 93.65 96.63 98.06 99.61 98.16 95.2 96


UR/INR 75.38 74.68 75.96 76.66 77.24 76.54 75.26 76

rket Recap :

The Indian rupee advanced against the dollar inearly trades on Tuesday, 01 March 2016 on sus-ained selling of the US currency by banks and ex-

porters.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 68.25 againsthe dollar but dipped to a low of 68.36 so far duringhe day.

n the spot market, the Indian unit was last seen at68.31.

The dollar index, which measures the US currencystrength against major currencies, was trading at

98.141, down 0.07% from its previous close of98.211.

284arch,,2016


7/10

Nifty finally closed the week at 7029.75 thereby showed a net fall of 181 point on week to week basis. Last week uggested exiting long and selling on rise to 7220-7372 with a stop loss of 7500. Expect lower range of 6900-6730o be tested. Nifty made a low of 6869 and bounced back. Trend for 1 week, 3 week and 8 week is down. Reveresume on weekly chart if 3 week trend is turned up and it will turn up on breakout and close above 7253

closing. Downside momentum will continue on fall and close below 6825.

7-

treet Recommendations Report Card

Top Fundamental Stocks

Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP TargetAbsoluteReturn @

CMPSta

Educare 01/02/2016 164 139 230 -15% Bu

ware-Wall Ropes 28/12/2015 425 275 550 -35% Bu

spun syntax 23/11/2015 121 90 223 -26% Bu

co Pharma 02/11/2015 509 418 3183 -18% Bu

F 21/09/2015 1140 1056 1374 -7% Bu

uwal ia contracts 24/08/2015 235 216 368 -8% Bu

nite Computer20/07/2015 190 187 255 -2% Bu

n Spinners Ltd . 06/07/2015 79 50 94 -37% Bu

nk of Baroda 01/06/2015 163 132 217 -19% Bu

bika Cotton Mil ls 18/05/2015 880 761 1149 -14% Bu

dbhavgineering Ltd.

04/05/2015 298 209 430 -30% Bu

kar specialityemicals

16/03/2015 152 152 251 0% Bu

FL 16/02/2015 252 154 368 -39% Accum

Today Network 27/01/2015 222 295 337 33% Bu

M 12/01/2015 1238 1227 1452 -1% Bu

vells India 27/10/2014 274 272 346 -1% Bu

C India Fin. Ser. 07/07/2014 39 31 45 -19% Bu

ani Port 05/07/2014 280 196 347 -30% Accum

mna Auto 22/02/2016 133 121 181 -9% Bu

snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandh

chyou

lose

when

you're

wrong.

284arch,,2016


8/10

7-

treet Short Term Call Status

284arch,,2016

DATE

STOCK

BUY/ RANGE

RANGE

TRIGGER

TGT

SL

STATUS

06Jan15 SBIN SELL 216 220 218 210 226 TA

07Jan15 INFY BUY 1060 1080 1070 1030 1120 TA

08Jan15 TECHM SELL 506 515 510.5 490 532 TA

11Jan16 MARUTI SELL 4200 4270 4235 4040 4300 TA

12Jan16 M&M SELL 1155 1177 1166 1100 1195 TA

13Jan16 FEDRALBANK SELL 47.7 48.7 48.2 46.2 51 TA

14Jan16 BANKINDIA SELL 93 97 95 90 100 TA

15Jan16 TATASTEEL SELL 237 241 239 230 245 TA

18Jan16 ACC SELL 1220 1242 1231 1190 1270 TA

19Jan16 HINDPETRO SELL 820 832 826 788 858 TA

20Jan16 BANKBARODA SELL 124 126 125 119 129 TA

21Jan16 ALBK SELL 49 51 50 47.8 53 SL

22Jan16 DRREDDY BUY 2730 2780 2755 2885 2680 TA

25Jan16 IGL BUY 564 578 571 595 550 TA

27Jan16 HAVELLS BUY 298 304 301 313 287 TA

28Jan16 HINDZINC SELL 158 162 160 152 166 TA

1Feb16 APOLLOHOSP BUY 1458 1486 1472.00 1520.00 1430 TA

2Feb16 SYNDIBANK SELL 63 64.2 63.60 60.00 66.2 TA

3Feb16 ALBK SELL 49 53 51.00 47.00 55 TA

4Feb16 UCOBANK SELL 32 34 33.00 30.50 35.5 SL

5Feb16 JETAIRWAYS SELL 524 536 530.00 510.00 553 SL

08Feb

16

BHARAT

FORGESELL

758

773

765.5

728

790

TA

09Feb16INDUSIND

BANKSELL 878 891 884.5 846 910 TA

10Feb16 RELIANCE SELL 954 970 962 915 995 TA

11Feb16 ADANIPORT SELL 200 206 203 192 212 TA

12Feb16 BHARTIARTL BUY 303 309 306 322 293 TA

15Feb16 INFRATEL BUY 381 388 384.50 403.00 370 SL


9/10

7-

treet Short Term Call Status

284arch,,2016

DATE STOCK BUY/SELL

RANGE TRIGGERPRICE

TGT SL STATUS CMPRE

16Feb16 VEDL SELL 73 76 74.50 69.00 78 TA

17Feb16 ICICI SELL 194 198 196.00 185.00 204 TA

18Feb16 DRREDDY BUY 2950 3000 2975.00 3140.00 2890 TA

19Feb16 DHFL SELL 152 155 153.50 146.00 160 TA

22Feb16 SRTRANFIN BUY 817 833 825.00 850.00 802 TA

23Feb16 PIDILITE BUY 630 643 636.50 655.00 615 SL

24Feb16 DLF SELL 84 86 85.00 80.00 89 SL

25Feb16INDUSIND

BANKSELL 816 832 824.00 800.00 852 TA

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB 29 82.86

SL+EXIT 6 17.14

TOTAL 35 100.00

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.

This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)


10/10

284arch,,2016

j street volume 284

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