J Robert Gibson 20th November 2010

gibswong2@netvigator.com

Consultation Forum on Hong Kong’s Climate Change Strategy and Action Agenda

AGENDAA)Government

proposalB)HK Government

consultation pointsC)IEA WEO 2010

(9 Nov 2010)

D) Key questions:1. GHG reduction target

for 2020 and 2030.2. Fuel mix: Gas or

Nuclear?3. Waste: incinerator or

landfill?4. How much building

energy efficiency?

Respond by 10th Dec 2

A) What is the Government proposing?

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2009 per Annex 3

2020 with 'BAU'

2020 with reduction

programme

Saving from BAU

% saving

% of the saving

Electricity generation 28,208 30,758 11,983 18,775 61.0% 95.5%Transport 7,350 8,014 7,614 401 5.0% 2.0%Other end use of fuel 2,850 3,108 3,108 0 0.0% 0.0%Waste 2,160 2,355 1,865 490 20.8% 2.5%Industrial processes and product use 1,590 1,734 1,734 0 0.0% 0.0%Agriculture, forestry and other land use 29 32 32 0 0.0% 0.0%Total 42,187 46,000 26,335 19,665 42.8% 100.0%

9.0%Data from Government consultation documentAssumptions made

1) The split of 2020 emissions under BAU is proportional to the 2009 split2) Electricity reduction per below3) Transport saving 5% - NB No factual basis for this.4) No savings in other categories.

Greenhouse gas emissions ('000 tonnes CO2-e)

BEWARE: Rough estimate as consultation document provides few numbers

What is the Government proposing?

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CO2e/ kWh M kWh 000k CO2e mix M kWh 000k CO2e mix

Coal 1.000 24,048 24,048 53.2% 4,590 4,590 10.0%Gas 0.400 10,401 4,160 23.0% 18,358 7,343 40.0%Nuclear 0.040 10,773 431 23.8% 21,880 875 47.7%Waste to energy Note 1 508 1.1%Wind 0.020 560 11 1.2%Solar - 0.0%Less emissions outside Hong Kong (431) (875)

45,222 28,208 100.0% 45,896 11,944 100.0%

Emissions reduction compared to 2009 -57.7%Electricity increase per BAU 9.6%Less efficiency per next page -7.4%Net increase 1.5%

Sources of informationMix in 2009 and 2020 per figure 8 adjusted for CLP/HKEC information where available

Carbon intensity of electricity per figure 7 adjusted for CLP/HKEC information where available

The total consumption in 2020 is guessed at 5% below the BAU projection.

Open this spreadsheet for more information

2009 estimate 2020 projection

Note 1: emissions from waste to energy counted as part of emissions from waste rather than electricity generation.

BEWARE: Rough estimate as consultation document provides few numbers

B) Government’s “Key” consultation points

Government question: 1. Do you notice more extreme weather in Hong

Kong?2. Should Hong Kong adopt a carbon intensity

target?3 . Should we conserve energy and use greener

transport? What can business/individuals do?

4. Is the proposed fuel mix OK given environment, availability, reliability and cost considerations?

5. Do you agree to target a 50 – 60% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 (from 2005)?

6. Do you support the Government’s proposals for achieving the carbon intensity reduction target?

7. Should Hong Kong work with the PRD to be a leading areas of low carbon prosperity in China?

8. Do you know enough about climate change? What will you do about it?

9. Will climate change impact the vulnerable areas as identified in this consultation paper? Is the proposed response OK?

Response:1. Yes: (Can’t tell by my own senses but can see the

change from the HKO’s statistics.)2. Yes.

3. Yes. We need regulation to end the ‘phoney war’

4. Yes (NB: Gas vs Nuclear controversy)

5. Yes. We should also have a 2030 target. This will show we need both radical energy efficiency and additional nuclear.

6. Yes except we should have more action on building energy efficiency.

7. Yes.

8. I know enough to conclusde urgent action is required. Much further study is required to win the climate war

9. Yes

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C) The IEA’s WEO 2010

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D) Key question 1: GHG reduction target?

Key points:• Do you believe the climate science?• What change is required to current policy

direction to avoid destabilising climate?Answer:• Climate science is clear enough to know we

must make drastic reductions in emissions.• The 50-60% target is good for 2020 but much

more is needed for 203013

Key question 2: Fuel mix – Gas or Nuclear?

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Key question 2: Fuel mix – Gas or Nuclear?

Key considerations:• Environmental impact • Security of supply (Availability and reliability)• Safety (risk to human life)• CostAnswer:• Support the 2020 proposal (50% nuclear, 40% gas,

3% renewable and 7% coal)• Must increase renewable to replace gas in longer

term. Gas will be needed for fertiliser and large vehicles. 15

Key question 3: Incinerator or landfill?

Key considerations :• Environmental impact • Safety (risk to human life)• CostAnswer: Use incinerators as:• Technology safe. • Reduced GHG emissions• Shortage of landfill space.

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Key question 4: How much building energy efficiency?

Key consideration: CostAnswer: Much more can and should be done:• WBCSD’s Energy Efficiency in Buildings study

suggest 52% reduction with 10 year payback if US$60/barrel oil and US$40/tonne CO2.

• Key additional measures:– Transparent labelling of actual building energy

consumption– Revenue neutral tax switch from property to energy.

• Creates jobs and boosts Hong Kong’s economy17

AGENDAA)Government

proposalB)HK Government

consultation pointsC)IEA WEO 2010

(9 Nov 2010)

D) Key questions:1. GHG reduction target

for 2020 and 2030.2. Fuel mix: Gas or

Nuclear?3. Waste: incinerator or

landfill?4. How much building

energy efficiency?

Respond by 10th Dec 18