IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate

Change

Basic Principles and Elements of Adaptation Strategies

Goal and objectives of the session

At the end of this session, participants will: Be able to identify the main principles and

processes that have been proposed for the process of preparing adaptation strategies

Know major sources of substantive guidance for adaptation planning

Be able to identify the linkages between adaptation plans and mitigation plans, as well as possible conflicts between the two.

What is adaptation?

Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of

climate change, including climate variability.

It should lead to harmonization with country’s more pressing development priorities such as poverty alleviation, food securityand disaster management.

Variations

Rational decision-making in the area of hard and soft solutions and their combination has to be based on a proper, permanent planning process.

Proactive adaptation – ‘no regrets’ – strategic planning, incremental implementation, and cost-effective.

Autonomous adaptation – ad hoc, cumulative, tactical adjustments to demands, needs, and demographic patterns and technological advances and ecological constraints. Progress as data, events and uncertainties are clarified.

Extreme eventsExtreme events

Adaptation chain

PreventPreventImprove

resilienceImprove

resilience

PreparePrepare

RespondRespond

RecoverRecover

Basic principles

Action based on assessment and evaluation application of precautionary principle to be considered

Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events is a basis for reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change

Adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a socio-economic development context

Adaptation policy to take social, economic and environmental concerns into consideration and ensure that the needs of the present generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations.

Basic principles -2-

Uncertainty characterization required along the entire process

Concept may not be well understood at political and local levels

Stakeholders must be part of the impact assessment process to own the results

Communication strategy essential.

Basic principles -3-

Strong interdepartmental (interministerial) and intersectoral cooperation

Stakeholder involvement identification as part of the assessment process

Acceptable levels of risk No-regret and low-regret options as a priority Short-, mid- and long-term measures to be

clearly brought in sequence.

Basic principles -4-

Estimating costs of a measure is a prerequisite for ranking a measure and including it in the budget or in a wider adaptation programme. Cost of inaction?

Avoiding maladaptation through strong assessment process, stakeholder involvement and considering the externalities of various adaptations.

Development of an adaptation strategy

Information needs

Impact assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Financial arrangements

Evaluate

Policy, legal and institutional framework

Understand the vulnerability

Development of measures

Information needs

Impact assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Financial arrangements

Evaluate

Policy, legal and institutional framework

Understand the vulnerability

Development of measures

Process

Assessing current vulnerability Assessing future climate risks Formulating an adaptation strategy Monitoring, evaluation and review Engaging stakeholders in the

adaptation process Assessing and enhancing adaptive

capacity.

Assessment of the status of all water resources

Specification of objectives for individual water resources

Prediction of trends Associated assessment of risk for projects

already taken Specification of measures for those projects

at risk of not meeting the objectives Monitoring of the impacts of measures for

further assessments and decision-making.

In WRM, the process involves

Opportunities for adaptation

Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion

Operation and regulation of existing systems for optimal use and accommodating new purposes (e.g. ecology, climate change, vulnerability)

Maintenance and major rehabilitation of existing systems (e.g. dam safety)

Modifications in processes and demands (water conservation, pricing, regulation)

Introduce new efficient technologies (desalination, biotechnology, irrigation, recycling, solar, etc.).

Steps for an adaptation project

Scope project and define objective

Establish a project team

Review and synthesise existing information

Design project for adaptation.

Steps

Scope project and define objective• Establish the stakeholder process• Prioritise the key system• Review the policy process• Define project objectives• Develop a communication plan

Establish a project team

Review and sysnthesise existing information

Design project for adaptation

Setting objectives of an adaptation project

Increase the robustness of infrastructure designs

Increase the flexibility and resilience of the natural systems

Enhance the adaptive capacity

Reverse trends that increase vulnerability

Improve people’s awareness and preparedness for future climate change

Integrate adaptation in development planning.

Steps

Scope project and define objective

Establish a project team

Review existing information

• Review and synthesize existing information

• Describe adaptation policies and measures in place

• Develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

Design project for adaptation.

Steps

Scope project and define objective

Establish a project team

Review and sysnthesise existing information

Design project for adaptation• Select approach and methods

• Describe process for assessment of future vulnerability

• Develop monitoring and adaptation plan

• Develop terms of reference for project implementation.

Challenges to making adaptations

Insufficient monitoring and observation systems

Lack of basic information

Settlements in vulnerable areas

Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework

Lack of capacity

Low income.

Adaptive capacity is dependent on:

Economic resources Human resources Information and skills Technology Institutions Infrastructure Regional and international cooperation.

Conclusions

Adaptation to present climate variability and extreme events forms the basis for reducing vulnerability to future climate change.

The adaptation strategy has to be developed within the development context of the system.

Adaptation happens at various levels within the society – national, regional, local, community and individual.

The adaptation process is as important as the adaptation strategy.

Think about it

What is the role of sectoral adaptation planning? What is its potential?

Can you give examples of cross-sectoral adaptation planning?

Thank you

Additional Material

The situation to be avoided...

"… but not a drop to drink."

“Water, water everywhere …

Adapted from A.M. Noorian

Information, information everywhere ...

… but none to help me think

Current pressures

Future impactsAcceptable level of

uncertainty for action

Timing of changes Immediate expected results

Adapted from A.M. Noorian

National Adaptation Programme of Action

Objective: Serve as a simplified and direct channel of communication for information relating to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs of the LDCs

Needs addressed through projects and activities that may include capacity building and policy reform

Available for some 38 LDCs to be taken into account when formulating IWRM plans!

Nairobi Work Programme (2005–2010)

Improve understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.

Areas of work under the Nairobi Work Programme

Methods and tools Data and observations Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling Climate related risks and extreme events Socio-economic information Adaptation planning and practices Research Technologies for adaptation Economic diversification.

Building resilience

Energy and water development are interrelated

Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007

Carbon energy source?

Water developments with serious energy footprints

Desalination of seawater for water supply requiring huge amounts of energy

Large-scale pumping for irrigation Large-scale pumping for inter-basin transfers Competing water uses leading to reduced

inflow to hydropower dams, as e.g. upstream irrigation, resulting in increased thermal energy production.

Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007

Energy developments with serious water footprints

Major hydropower dams in dry tropical climates, resulting in large water losses and changes in downstream flow regimes

Production of first generation biofuels in tropical developing countries suffering water scarcity already, hampering achievement of the MDG targets on poverty and hunger

Shale oil development requiring huge amounts of water

Energy crisis in Germany in 2003 due to inadequate availability of cooling water for nuclear power plants.

Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007

Information inputs

Climate InformationHistorical data for trends

Climate predictionsClimate scenarios

Physical informationGeophysical information

Social development scenarios

Sectoral information

Technological optionsSupply–demand

situations

Economic information