GeneralSessionIV,MortalityProjectionfromaSocial

SecurityPanel

Moderator:SamGutterman,FSA,CERA,FCA,FCAS,HONFIA,MAAA

Presenters:

StephenC.Goss,ASA,MAAAAdrianGallop,FIA

JeanClaudeMenard,FSA,FCIAAnnieStJacques,FSA,FCIA

Mortality in the United Kingdom

Living to 100 Symposium 5 January 2017

Adrian GallopUK Office for National StatisticsUK Government Actuarys Department

Presentation outline

Historical trends Mortality 2014-based projection results Mortality by area, socio-economic category

and insured/retired State pension age

Period expectation of life at birth, England & Wales

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Life expectancy (years)

Year

Females

Males

Period expectation of life at age 65, England & Wales

5

10

15

20

25

1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Life expectancy (years)

Year

Females

Males

Age distribution of deaths, UK

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Males

0-14 15-34 35-59 60-79 80+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Females

0-14 15-34 35-59 60-79 80+

Annualised rates of mortality improvement Males, E&W

6

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1911-2014 1911-31 1931-51 1951-71 1971-91 1991-2011 2011-14

Ann

ual p

erce

ntag

e im

prov

emen

t, m

x

Period

20-39

40-59

60-79

80-99

Annualised rates of mortality improvement Females, E&W

7

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1911-2014 1911-31 1931-51 1951-71 1971-91 1991-2011 2011-14

Ann

ual p

erce

ntag

e im

prov

emen

t, m

x

Period

20-39

40-59

60-79

80-99

Male mortality by major cause, E&W, 1911-2013

Age standardised mortality rates for selected broad disease groups

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Rate per 100,000

Year

Respiratory

Cancers

Circulatory

Female mortality by major cause, E&W, 1911-2013

Age standardised mortality rates for selected broad disease groups

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Rate per 100,000

Year

Respiratory

Circulatory

Cancers

Age standardised mortality rate by cause, persons aged 75 and over, E&W

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Flu and Pneumonia Other Respiratory Dementia and Alzheimer'sCirculatory Cancer All other causes

Source: ONS

Age-standardised mortality rates, E&W

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Age-standardised mortality rate per 100,000, E&W, 1995 to 2015Males Females

Deaths, Males, UK

230000

250000

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sta

ndar

dise

d nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s

Deaths, Males, UK

230000

250000

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sta

ndar

dise

d nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s

Deaths, Males, UK

230000

250000

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sta

ndar

dise

d nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s

Deaths, Males, UK

230000

250000

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sta

ndar

dise

d nu

mbe

r of d

eath

s

Leading causes of death, E&W, 2015

The leading causes of death in 2015 were:

Source: Office for National Statistics16

Males FemalesUnderlying cause Percentage of

all male deathsUnderlying cause Percentage of all

female deathsHeart disease 14.3% Dementia and

Alzheimers15.2%

Dementia and Alzheimers

7.9% Heart disease 8.8%

Neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung

6.4% Cerebrovascular diseases

7.5%

Chronic lower respiratory diseases

6.2% Influenza and Pneumonia

6.1%

Cerebrovascular diseases

5.6% Chronic lower respiratory diseases

6.0%

Number of deaths by month of registration, persons aged 75 and over, E&W

Dotted lines are five year averagesSource: ONS

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Dementia and Alzheimer's - 2015 Circulatory - 2015 Respiratory - 2015 All other causes

UK Population Mortality Projections

Methodology

Estimate current rates of mortality improvement by age and gender

Set target rates of mortality improvement for some future year (the target year)

Assumptions on method and speed of convergence of current improvement rates to target rates

Assumptions how improvement rates change after target year

Apply successively to assumed base mortality rates

Base improvement in death rates by age, 2013-14, United Kingdom

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Percentage reduction

Age attained in 2014

Males improvements in 2014 Females improvements in 2014

Improvement in 2039 principal Improvement in 2039 variants

2014-based annual improvement in smoothed mortality rates, Males, UK, 1961/2 2038/9

Projections

2014-based annual improvement in smoothed mortality rates, Females, UK, 1961/2 2038/9

Projections

Actual and assumed overall annual rates of mortality improvement, ages 0-99, UK

Males Females

Last/nextYears

Past (Actual)

Future (assumed)

Past (Actual)

Future (assumed)

20

25

30

50

2.4%

2.3%

2.2%

1.7%

2.0%

1.9%

1.7%

1.5%

1.6%

1.6%

1.5%

1.4%

1.8%

1.7%

1.6%

1.4%

80

100

1.3%

1.2%

1.4%

1.4%

1.3%

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

Period expectations of life at birth in 2013

Country Males FemalesUK 79.0 82.8The Netherlands 79.4 83.0Sweden 80.1 83.7Norway 79.7 83.6France 78.7 85.0Switzerland 80.5 84.8USA 76.4 81.2Canada 79.3 83.6Australia 80.1 84.3Japan 80.2 86.6

Source: latest published life expectancy from countrys national statistics website, May 2015

Projected period expectations of life at birth in 2060

Country Males FemalesUK* 86.7 89.3The Netherlands 87.1 89.9Sweden 86.7 88.8Norway 86.5 89.1France 86.0 91.1Switzerland 86.1 90.2USA 84.0 87.1Canada (2062) 87.6 89.2Australia 85.2 88.3Japan 84.2 90.9

* 2014-based UK projections Source: latest published projections from countrys national statistics website, November 2015

Alternative target rates of improvementTarget rates assumed for 2039

Projected period life expectancyMales Females Males Females

At birth in 2039 At birth in 20890.8% 83.6 86.4 87.6 90.2

1.0% 83.8 86.7 88.9 91.4

1.2% 84.1 87.0 90.2 92.61.4% 84.4 87.2 91.5 93.8

CPP 27* 83.2* 86.0* 87.1* 89.6*

OASDI 16* 83.4* 86.2* 87.3* 89.7*

At age 65 in 2039 At age 65 in 20890.8% 21.9 23.8 25.1 26.9

1.0% 22.1 24.0 26.2 28.0

1.2% 22.3 24.2 27.2 29.01.4% 22.6 24.5 28.3 30.1

CPP 27* 21.5* 23.4* 24.5* 26.3*

OASDI 16* 21.6* 23.5* 24.6* 26.3** The life expectancies here are derived by inputting the long term assumptions for improvements in mortality rates from the latest CPP and SSA projections as the target rates in 2039 in the UK model; they are not the life expectancy values from the CPP or SSA projections.

Projected period life expectancy, UK

2014 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059

Expectation of life at birth

Males 79.3(79.6)

80.5(80.9)

82.7(82.9)

84.1 (84.3)

85.4 (85.6)

86.6 (86.9)

Females 83.0 (83.3)

84.0 (84.4)

85.7(86.3)

86.9 (87.6)

88.1 (88.8)

89.2 (89.9)

Expectation of life at