l-HW IUftPENT REVrrU/MSA;ESSMENT OF-AN6NALOU3 1/2VOLUME 4(U) LFU MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES INC ALEXANDRIA VAC B MACDONALD ET AL 22 JUN 87 MDA983-86-C-0396

UNCLASIFIEDF/G 15/1 U

13.

11111WILu- 5~:..

11111

UTCFILE CUR)

00 INDEPENDENT REVIEW/REASSESSMENT

(V)OF

In V

ANOMALOUS DATA

DTI'O

VOLUME IV

UINSTJIE-

Approved for public roJlu~I

Distribution Unlimnited~

Prepared for

U.S. ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCYContract MDA9O3-86-C-0396

Prepared by

LFW MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES, INC.P.O. Box 25167

Alexandria, Virginia 22313-5167

June 22, 1987

1116 01

DISCLAIMER: "The findings of this report are not be be construed as an

official Department of the Army position, policy, or decision unless so

designated by other official documentation.

I

'

I

I

UNCLASSIFIEDSECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF 'WIS PAGER C5 3

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE FM Nop704-,8

i a REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb RESTRICTIVE MARKINGSI Unclassified None

a. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTIONJAVAILABILITY OF REPORTApproved for public release; distribution

2b. DECLASSIFICATIONiDOWNGRADING SCHEDULE is unlimited.

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;a. %AME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANiZA7iON

LFW Management Associates, (if applicable) U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency

,c. ADDRESS City. State, ano ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code)P.O. Box 25167 8120 Woodmont Aven.e

I Alexandria, VA 22312-5157 Bethesda, MD 20814-2797

a. NAME OF FUNDINGSPONSORING 8b OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER'NV ORGANIZATION (ifapplicable)

..I Army Concepts Analysis Agency iCSCA-MVM Contract No. MDA 903-86-C-0396Sc. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 10. SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS

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Bethesda, MO 20814-2797 ELEMENTNO. NO NO. ACCESSiONNO

1 TITLE (Include Security Clasfsiication)Independent Review/Reassessment of Anomalous Data: Volume IV

I _1 DERSONAL AUTHOR(S)

. Charles B. MacDonald, William M. Glasgow, Jr., George H. Russell, Graham M. Sibbles, et al13a. TYPE OF REPORT 13b TIME COVERED 14 DATE OF REPORT (Year, Month, Day) 1S. PAGE COUNT

Final FROM 86-09TO 87-06 1987 June 226. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION

7 /" . COSATI CODES 1 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)E , GROUP Battles, Land Combat, Historical Data

FAIICT GCOnnUP SUB 1G3ROUP A y

O.-'BSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)\n independent review/reassessment of 61 battles in 8 campaigns of World -War II and themrab-Israeli Wars of 1967!and 1973 was conducted. this work will provide the U.S. Army'sConcepts Analysis Agency (CAA) with a factual basis for determining the qxtent to which.zartn anomalies in thetdata contained in CAA Study Repor CAA-SR-84-6, Analysis of.actors That Have Influenced Outcomes of Battles and Wars are attributable to actualIchanges in combat dynamics, or whether they are more likely due to flawsin the data base.* virtually every case, the LFW Team's findings differ substantially from those determined,4 the authors of CAA-SR-84-6. .r , ,

0. DISTRIBUTIONIAVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION; iUNC'.ASSIFIED/UNLIMITED C- SAMEASRPT (3 DTICUSERS Unclassified

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0 Form 1473, JUN 86 Previous editions are obsolete. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE

UNCLASSIFIED07

TABLE OF CONTENTS .,:.

".P VOLUME I:

In r d ct o . .. . . .. . . . .. . -

The Okinawa Campaign ..... *.......*.. I-l1

Appendix A -- The LFW Team .......... 1-75

Appendix B- Glossary .... ... .... . .. 1-77

Appendix C -- XXIX Corps Daily

~ Strengths andCasualties ... . . **..... 1-83

Appendix D -- Japanese Strengths andDaily Casualties ...... 1-87

VOLUME II: The Salerno Campaign .... 11-1

The Volturno RiverCampaign . . *. . . .. .. .. .. . 11-50

VOLUME III: The Anzio Campaign ...... 111-1

0The Rome Campaign .... 111-35

VOLUME IV: The Arab-Israeli Wars ... IV-l

Northwest Europe ........ * IV-50

.~~.The Eastern Front ....... IV-97

i1106 i6p-ffa6

INTRODUCTION AND BIBLIOGRAPHY: ARAB-ISRAELI WARS

As per contract, the LFW Team reviewed/reassessed the... following battles:

Jebel Libni (Sinai], 6 Jun 1967Kerama [Jordan Valley], 21 Mar 1968Ismailia [Suez], 19-22 Oct 1973Kuneitra [Golan] , 6-7 Oct 1973Ahmadiyeh [Golan] , 6-7 Oct 1973Yehudia-El Al [Golan], 7/8 Oct 1973*Mount Hermonit [Golan} , 8-9 Oct 1973

-__ Mount Hermon I [Golan], 8 Oct 1973*Mount Hermon II [Golan] , 21 Oct 1973

*Use of the virgule indicates an overnight battle rather thana two-day battle.

As noted in the general instruction, LFW ManagementAssociates, Inc. sent a member of the team to Israel to seekaccess to Israeli Army Lecords but without success.

lA Subsequent attempts to obtain information from other Israelisources also produced no data other than references tosecondary works with which the LFW Team was already familiar.

i: ::0Aside from the obvious problem of inadequate basic

data, the lack of Israeli cooperation also left the LFW Teamwithout adequate information on Tales of Organization andEquipment of the Israeli Army and its opponents with which toextrapolate in order to fill the many gaps in personnel andarmament strengths. The limited figures on strengths andarmament found in secondary sources [Dupuy, Elusive victory;

Herzog, The Arab-Israeli Wars; Adan, On the Banks of the Suez;and Safran, From War to War are the basis for the

s. /-.. extrapolation noted on the appropriate charts.

The secondary sources paid somewhat more attention to

casualties, and those provided on the charts are in all casesfrom the secondary sources but rounded off, which is meant to

,.,

indicate that the LFW Team accepts them only as a generalindication of the losses.

Indeed, it must be said that the LFW Team hasconsiderably less confidence in the reliability of thestatistics provided for this group of battles than for anyothers involved in the study/reassessment.

NOTE: The HERO study separated the second MountHermon action into two battles, Mount Hermon II and g.ountHermon III, apparently on the basis of the account found inDupuy, Elusive Victory. The LFW Team found contrary accountsin four sources which would indicate that the two should betreated as one battle: Herzog, The Arab-Israeli Wars;O"Ballance, No Victor, No Vanquished; Allen, The Yom KippurWar [however briefly]; and Asher and Hammel, Duel for the

_ Golan. Even if the account in Elusive Victory is accepted, aquestion still remains whether they constitute two separatebattles, for the action was continuous with virtually the sameforces involved on both days. Because the LFW Team was notcharged with analysis of Mount Hermon III, no change was made.

Bibliography

Official Records

None.

Secondary Sources

4Most useful:

Adan, Avrahan, On the Banks of the Suez: An IsraeliGenerall's Personal Account of the Yom Kippur War [San Rafael,CA: Presidio Press, 1980].

Dupuy, Trevor N., Elusive victory: The Arab-IsraeliWars, 1947-1974 [New York: Harper and Row, 19781.

Herzog, Chaim, The Arab-Israeli Wars [New York: RandomHouse, 1982].

Safran, Nadar, From War to War: The Arab-Israeli

IV-2

confrontation, 1948-1967, [New York: Pegasus Books, 1969].

Schiff, Ze'lev, A History of the Israeli Army: 1974 tothe Present [New York: The Macmillan Co., 19851.

Of limited usefulness:

Asher, Jerry, with Hammel, Eric, Duel for the Golan,the 100-Hour Battle that Saved Israel [New York: WilliamMorrow and Co., 1987].

Luttwak, Edward N., and Horowitz, Daniel, The IsraeliArmy, 1948-1973 [Cambridge, MA: Abt Books, 1983].

O'!Ballance, Edgar, No Victor, No Vanquished: The YomKippur War [San Rafael, CA: Presidio Press, 1978].

Of peripheral usefulness:

Aker, Frank, October 1973: The Arab-Israeli War

[Hamden, CN: Archon Books, 1985].

0Allen, Peter, The Yom Kippur War [New York: CharlesScribner"s Sons, 1982].

Barclay, Brig. C.N., "Lessons from the October War,"ARMY Magazine, May 74.

Byford-Jones, W., The Lightning War: The Israeli-ArabConflict, 1967 [Indianapolis, IN: The Bobbs Merrill Co.,19681.

Dupuy, T.N., "The War of Ramadan: An Arab Perspectiveof the October War," ARMY Magazine, Mar 75.

Hassan el Badri, et al., The Ramadan War, 1973 [DunnLoring, VA: T.N. Dupuy Associates, Inc., 1978].

Teveth, Shabtai, The Tanks of Tammuz: An EyewitnessAccount of Israel's Six Days War [New York: The Viking Press,

NOTE: The LFW Team was unable to obtain copies of twosources cited in the HERO study: LTC A. Ayalon, The Six DayWar [IDF Spokesman'Fs Office, Apr 68] , and IDF Spokesman'IsOTice, The Six Day War: Description of Combats by Commanders,

IV-3

Northern Front [Aug 67]. The first source covers the periodof only one of the battles assigned the LFW Team for review[Jebel Libni] , and the second source none. For lack ofcapability in Hebrew, the LFW Team also was unable to consultColonel Meir Pa"il, "Tzahal Attacks on Abu Ageila in ThreeWars," Maarachot, Aug 70, but this source apparently coversnone of the battles assigned the LFW Team for review.

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INTRODUCTION AND BIBLIOGRAPHY: NORTHWEST EUROPE

As per contract, the LFW Team reviewed/reassessed thefollowing battles:

Operation GOODWOOD [Normandy], 18-20 Jul 1944Chartres [LeMans to Metz] , 16 Aug 1944Moselle-Metz [LeMans to Metz], 6-11 Sep 1944Morhange [Saar/Lorraine] , 13-15 Nov 1944Durstel-Farmbersviller [Saar/Lorraine], 28-29 Nov 1944Singling-Bining [Saar/Lorraine], 6 Dec 1944Sauer River [Ardennes] , 16-17 Dec 1944

For U.S. divisions and corps in these battles,adequate data on casualties and armament were available in theofficial division and corps records, but except in the case ofthe XII Corps and the 12th Infantry, 4th Infantry Division,the LFW Team had to depend for personnel strengths in largemeasure on extrapolation based on Tables of Organization andEquipment as modified by accounts in Cole, The LorraineCampaign, as to the general condition of the units. AtChartres , for example , the action was the first seriousencounter for CCB, 7th Armored Division, after briefcommitment in a pursuit action, so that a strength of 3,500based on normal organization strength appears reasonable; andCole reports that at both Morhange and Singling-Bining allunits of the 4th Armored Division were seriouslyunderstrength.

For statistics on British units in Operation GOODWOOD,the LFW Team relied primarily on the Second Army'is Report onOperation GOODWOOD and on the official British history, Ellis,The Battle of Normandy. Personnel strengths are primarilyestimates based on an appendix in the official historyproviding organization, strengths, and armament of Britishunits. For Canadian strengths and casualties, the basicsource was the official history, Stacey, The Victory Campaign.

Bibliography

Official Records

XII Corps: After-Action Report, Artillery After-ActionReport, Periodic Reports, and G-1 and G-3 Journals and files.

IV-50

XX Corps: After-Action Report, Artillery After-ActionReport, Periodic Reports, and G-l and G-3 Journals and files.

4th Armored Division: After-Action Report, DivisionArtillery After-Action Report, Periodic Reports, and G-1 andG-3 Journals and files; After-Action Reports, PeriodicReports, and S-1 and S-3 Journals and files, Combat CommandsA, B, and R.

4th Infantry Division: After-Action Report, Division- -Artillery After-Action Report; After-Action Report, Periodic

Reports, S-1 and S-3 Journals and files, 12th Infantry;After-Action Reports of attached units: 70th Tank Battalionand 802d and 803d Tank Destroyer Battalions.

5th Infantry Division: After-Action Report.

6th Armored Division: After-Action Report.

b, 7th Armored Division: After-Action Report and PeriodicReports; After-Action Report, CCB.

26th Infantry Division: After-Action Report.

35th Infantry Division: After-Action Report.

80th Infantry Division: After-Action Report.

" '"90th Infantry Division: After-Action Report.

British Sources

Second Army, Report on Operation GOODWOOD, PublicRecords Office, London.

German Sources

OKW, KTB [War Diary of the Supreme Command of theArmed Forces], vol. 7, as cited in Salerno sources.

Appendices of the period [Jul-Nov 1944] in OKW, KTBand the official German history [Dieter Ose, Entscheidung inWesten, cited in full below] assemble important documents andstatistics. The loss of most primary sources during theoperations in 1944 and at the end of the war makes this periodespecially difficult for research, leaving a high number of

IV-51

gaps to be filled by extrapolation based on Tables ofOrganization and Equ1,ment.

Manuscripts: No. T-121-123, "The History of OB WEST[Commander-in-Chief, West] " in 3 parts and 37 volumes,especially Part I, B, II, 31.32; No. B-308, a multi-volumestudy in command of OB WEST; and the following manuscriptslisted by units:

First Army: No. B-363 [Albert Emmerich] , First Army,15 Sep-7 Nov 1944; No. A-908 [Emmerich], First Army Roster andCommand Organization; No. B-821 [Kurt Hold] , First ArmyOrganization and Replacements [See also MS No. B-732] ; No.B-722-730 [Northern France Campaign] ; No. A-900 [CurtSouchay] , Rear Areas, Seventh and First Armies; Nos. B-003 andB-091 [Otto Kohl]and B-214 [Willie Mantey] , Rear Areas; No.3-732 [Hold] , First Army Organization and Replacements 11Aug-15 Sep 1944 [a most useful source] ; B-821 on the samesubject; B-222 [Otto von Knobelsdorff], Estimate of Situation.

LXXIV Corps: No. C-016 [Erich Straube] , West Wall atHuertgen; No. B-118 [Karl Puechler], Operations.

LXXXVI Corps: No. A-922 [Panzer Group Eberbach atFalaise, Jul-Aug 1944]; No. B-840 [Panzer GruppeWest-Eberbach-Normandy, 3 Jul-9 Aug 19441.

XIII SS Panzer Corps: No. C-023 [Max Simon, on PanzerLehr Division Counterattack 16 Nov-27 Dec 1944] ; Nos. B-407and B-487 [Simon] ; and C-039 [Simon] , Supplement to MS No.B-780.

lvth Panzer Division: No. C-023 [Simon] ; B-416 [Wend

von Wietersheim].

Secondary Sources

Most useful:

Cole, Hugh M., The Lorraine Campaign [U.S. Army inWorld War II, Washington: Center of Military History, 1950].

Ellis, Maj. L.F. et. al., Victory in West, Vol. I, TheBattle of Normandy [United Kingdom Military Series, History othe Second World War, London: Her Majesty"s Stationery Office,1962].

[Harrison, Gordon A.], "Singling-4th Armored Division,6 December 1944," in Small Unit Actions [American Forces in

IV-52

Action Series, Washington: Historical Division, WarDepartment, 19461.

Ose, Dieter, Entscheidung im Westen, 1944 [Stuttgart:DVA, 1982]. The official German history, Decision in theWest.

Stacey, Col. C.P., The Victory Campaign: TheOperations in Northwest Europe, 1944-45 [Ottawa: The Queen'sPrinter and Controller of Stationery, 1960].

Of limited usefulness:

Blumenson, Martin, Breakout and Pursuit [U.S. Army inWorld War II, Washington: Center of Military History, 1965].

Cole, Hugh M., The Ardennes: Battle of the Bulge [U.S.Army in World War II, Washington, Center of Military History,1965].

D'Este, Carlo, Decision in Normandy [New York: E.P.Dutton, Co., 19831.

Hastings, Max, Overlord: D-Day, June 6, 1944 [NewYork: Simon and Schuster, 1984].

MacDonald, Charles B., A Time for Trumpets: The Untold

Story of the Battle of the Bulge, [New York: William Morrowand Co., 19851.

Of peripheral usefulness:

Dyer, LTC George, XII Corps: Spearhead of Patton's:.- Third Army [Baton Rouge, LA: XII Corps History Association,

1947]

MacDonald, Charles B., "River Crossing at Arnaville,"in MacDonald and Mathews, Sidney T., Three Battles: Arnaville,Altuzzo, and Schmidt [U.S. Army in World War II, Washington:Center of Military History, 19521.

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INTRODUCTION AND BIBLIOGRAPHY: EASTERN FRONT

As per contract, the LFW Team studied/reassessedDefense of Moscow [Typhoon] , 30 Sep-3 Dec 1941, andOboyan-Kursk, Phase III [Kursk Citadel] , 11-15 Jul 1943. Forreasons stated in the introduction, the following assigned

( battles were not analyzed in detail:

Pogoreloye Gorodische [The Rzehw Operation],-d 4-11 Aug 1942

Leningrad [Leningrad], 12-18 Jan 1943Vistula River Operation, Phase I [Poland],

29-31 Jul 1944*.. -, Ciechanow, Phase I [Russian Winter Offensive, 1945],

14 Jan 1945

\. \. Review/assessment of these battles on the EasternFront posed special problems. As noted in the introduction,since most of the bibliographical sources cited in the HERO

. study are in Russian and the LFW Team lacked Russian language.. *[. capability, LFW Management Associates engaged two Russian

experts as consultants, Colonel David M. Glantz, head of theSoviet Army Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, andColonel John E. Jessup, Jr., presently retired and a researchanalyst with QUEST, to evaluate the cited sources anddetermine whether meaningful statistics for the assignedbattles could be obtained from them. Working independently,Colonels Glantz and Jessup arrived at the same negativeconclusion. Although Colonel Glantz believes that sources

y available at the Soviet Army Studies Office at FortLeavenworth are sufficient to determine meaningful statistics,nobody at that office would be available to do the researchuntil at least the end of the summer, 1987.

Meanwhile, the LFW Team'Is German language specialist,0 Charles V.P. von Luttichau, began to explore other sources,

Zincluding German translations of Soviet sources. He came tothe conclusion that he would be unable to find meaningfulstatistics for most of the battles, primarily because they are

, broken up into such small segments that statistics that may beavailable for longer periods cannot be broken down to fit

* those segments. He did find statistics for the longest- .battle, the Defense of Moscow, and was able to break down the

statistics for one of the shorter battles, Oboyan-Kursk, PhaseIII. The results of the research are provided on the charts.

) Separate bibliographies are provided for each battlealong with the researcher"s discursive comments on hisfindings.

.-. [ O'" 'IV-97

i- W

Defense of Moscow, USSR

30 September - 3 December 1944

The data applying to this phase of World War II areelusive and on the Russian side, less than reliable if notdownright false. Nevertheless, the following statistics maybe considered to be reasonably meaningful.

As the attacker, the Germans had almost 2 million men[more so by about 100,000 if Luftwaffe strength is included].The defender: 1.25 million.

Armor strength at the beginning of the operation: A:1,326; D: 990. Artillery strength: A: [approximate] 4,000; D: J10,600. Air [not sorties, but operational planes]: A: 1,000;D: 930.

Battle casualties and losses total for A, 120,966; forD, at least an estimated 1 million [by 20 October, more thansix weeks before the end of the operation, the Germans hadalready taken 673,000 prisoners; the figure of 1 million doesnot include KIAs and WIAs].

Armor: A: an estimated 930 [losses by attrition andaction had been about 75 percent]; D: [after substantialreinforcements, most of which were also lost] about 2,000[1,242 tanks lost or destroyed by 20 October 1941].

Artillery: A: approximately 2,400 [40 percentremained]; D: approximately 8,118 [by 20 October, 5,412 hadbeen destroyed; add 50 percent conservatively for the last sixweeks to bring the total to over 8,000].

Planes: A: approximately 400; D: an estimated 1,000[subsequently replaced by 1,370; from other Soviet sources,possibly only half that many].

IV-98I

Bibliography

English Language Sources

Erickson, John, The Road to Stalingrad [New York:" , Harper and Row, 1975].

HarerSeaton, Albert, The Russo-German War, 1941-1945 [New

York: Praeger, 1970].

Sa D Seaton, Albert, The Battle for Moscow [New York: Stein-and Day, 1971].

Fugate, Bryan I. , Operation Barbarossa, Strategy andTactics on the Eastern Front, 1941 [Novato, Cal.: PresidioPress, 19841. See especially Appendix A, with outstandingOrder of Battle information, the best. Compiled by ProfessorJames Goff.

I Piekalkiewica, Janusz, Moscow: 1941, The FrozenOffensive [Novato, Cal.: Presidio Press, 1981].

-0 von Hardesty, Red Phoenix, The Rise of Soviet AirPower 1941-1945 [Washington, D.C.: Smithsonian Institution

W Press, 1982].

Turney, Alfred W., von Bock's Campaigns, 1941-1944[University of New Mexico Press, 1970]. Based on Field

j *Marshal Fedor von Bock'Is War Diary. The German original ofthis diary is in the National Archives [in German only].

German Language Sources

Das Deutsche Reich und der zweite Weltkrieg, Band 4,Der Angriff auf die Sowjetunion, by Horst Boog et al.,published by Militargeschichtliches Forschungsamt [Stuttgart:Deutsch Verlags-Anstalt, 1983]. This is the official WestGerman history of World War II.

Reinhardt, Klaus, Die Wende vor Moskau, Das Scheiternder Strategie Hitler'is im Winter 1941-1942 [Stuttgart:

Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt, 1972]. Contains valuabledocumentary annexes.

Generaloberst Halder, Kreigstagebuch, Band III, DerRusslandfeldzug bis zum Marsch auf Stalingrad [22 Juni 1941 -

24 September 1942], edited by Hans-Adolf Jacobsen [Stuttgart:W. Kohlenhammar Verlag, 1964]. The important War Diary of theChief of Staff of the German Army.

* IV-99

Schramm, Percy E., general editor, Kriegstagebuch desOberkommandos der Wehrmacht , Band I , Teil B. , ed . byHans-Adolf Jacobsen [Frankfurt a. M.: Bernhard and Graefe,1961] . This is the contemporary war diary of the German ArmedForces High Command , with numerous document annexes, tables,and interpretations.

Soviet Sources

Zhukov, Georgii K., The Memoirs of Marshal Zhukov [NewYork: Delacorte Press, 19711.

vasilevsky, Alexander M., A Life-Long Cause,Translated from the Russian [Moscow: Progress Publishers,1981].

Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. M.M.

Minasyan, Editor-in-chief. One volume summation of the sixvolume official History of the Great Patriotic War. IstoriyaVelikoi Otechestvennoi Voiny Sovetskogo Soyuza, 1941-1945,translated into the German language by the East German Officeof Military History: Geschichte des Grossen VaterlandischenKrieges der Sowjetunion [Berlin: Deutscher Militarverlag"1968]. Volume 2 covers the offensive against Moscow.

The 12-volume History of World War II Istoriya VtoroiMirovoi Voiny, 1939-1945, also translated in East Germany , hasthe title: Geschichte des Zweiten Weltkrieges , 1939-1945.Volume 4 covers the offensive against Moscow.

Research materials, notes, and copies of documents inthe researcher'Is possession and his unpublished manuscript,"The Road to Moscow, German-Russian Operations in 1941 "helped in the gathering of information on this period.

C IV-100

6J -011 , 1 . p

OPERATION OBOYAN-KURSK, PHASE III, USSR

10 - 15 July 1943

This operation actually began on 10 [not 11] July1943, and was the last German effort of Army Group South tosalvage what it could from the so-called Kursk -- CITADEL --campaign.

The German attacker, in what quickly turned into ameeting engagement, was not only XLVIII Panzer Corps underGeneral Otto von Knobelsdorff but was assisted by elements ofthe neighboring corps, LII Infantry Corps, II SS Panzer Corps,

.* -' as well as Fourth Panzer Army reserve, part of one infantrydivision. This support was marginal in numbers andeffectiveness. The Luftwaffe support by some 1,200 planes [upto double that in daily sorties] had to be shared with Army

V -Kempf and Fourth Panzer Army of General Hermann Hoth"s other4" armored corps, the II SS Panzer Corps.

S The operations lasted for about six [not five] days-" and the sector was about 35-40 [not 25] kilometers.

' The Soviet defenders were organized under not one armybut two: the Sixth Guards Army and the First Tank Army,commanded by Generals I.M. Chistyakov and M.E. Katukov,respectively. In this crucial sector shielding the town ofOboyan, the Voronesh Front reinforced the defenders by the

*q entire artillery of Thirty-eighth and Fortieth Armies, equalto seven artillery divisions and doubled the number of corpscommitted to eight. Voronesh Front and its neighbor, CentralFront, together could commit 2,500 planes. Of these, VoroneshFront at the begining of CITADEL on 5 July had some 1,500 onI hand, which could fly up to 3,000 sorties. They had lost areported 585 planes by 9 July and could have put some 800-900planes in the air. [Several hundred additional planes of 17thAir Army of the Southwest Front could be added, but they wouldattack only Kempf"s army, not Hoth'ls.]

The total German [attacker] force had an estimatedmaximum strength of about 80,000 men. The Soviet [defender]

" forces of the Sixth Guards and the First Tank Armies,* including reinforcements and a build-up to eight corps, had an.,.;, estimated strength of at least 180,000 men equal to about

one-fifth of the combined Voronesh and Steppe Fronts [Stavkareserve].

Armor Strength. The XLVIII Panzer Corps, plus,[attacker] had some 350 tanks and possibly 100 assault gunsfor a total of 450. The Soviet [defender] by 9 July counted

IV-101

,~* - * ~ -* % ----- ---- ---

about 990 tanks and self-propelled guns, after a loss of atleast 460 tanks up to 9 July.

Artillery Strength. The XLVIII Panzer Corps had about290 guns [no mortars inciuded] whereas the Soviets had over1,500 guns and mortars, plus at least 48 rocket launchers. Inthe sources available [see bibliography] the artilleryestimates, especially on the Russian side, are vague orcontradictory. At the start of CITADEL, the artillery numberscould have been higher. But by 10 July they probably cameclose to the above estimate of 1,500.

Air Sorties. Attacker supported by a maximum of 2,400sorties from 1,200 planes per day, if all air resources wereconcentrated in one corps [XLVIII Panzer] sector. For allpractical and statistical purposes one-half of that totalwould reasonably be applicable. The Soviet air effort interms of sorties was based on about one-half of 15 AirDivisions or 1,500 planes, which would give the sector amaximum of about 1,500 sorties per day.

Battle Casualties. On the German side, estimated atabout five percent of the total force, or 4,000 men. This isan educated guess. [Based on the presumed condition of XLVIIIPanzer Corps during subsequent planned and actual operations.Soviet personnel losses opposite Fourth Panzer Army and ArmyKempf during CITADEL were estimated at 85,000, which included34,000 POWs. Mellenthin claims Fourth Panzer Army alone tohave taken 32,000 POWs, which would give XLVIII Panzer Corpsabout 16,000 POWs for the entire period 5 - 15 July 1943, andabout 8,000 for the period of this study.] Reliable sourcesindicate that XLVIII Panzer Corps took 7,000 POWs and counted1,500 Russians killed in action. The figure is probably onthe low side.

Armor Losses. XLVIII Panzer Corps lost about 150tanks [having launched the attack with about 450 vehiclesincluding assault guns] , and coming out of the battle withabout 200 tanks and assault guns. Soviet losses, many of themcaused by relentless air attacks, were believed to have beenover 1,000 tanks, an estimated 750 by ground action. Aboutone-half were total losses.

Artillery Pieces. No number of German artillerypieces has been found. A reasonable loss estimate would beten percent or about 30 guns. The Germans claimed some 500Russian guns and mortars captured or destroyed opposite XLVIIIPanzer Corps [2,000 guns and mortars for Fourth Panzer Army

4 for the entire offensive.]

Aircraft Losses. The Luftwaffe lost, by incomplete

IV-102

4A

count for the period [2 days missing] , 57 planes or an averageof 15 planes a day opposite Fourth Panzer Army, or 7-8 planesin the XLVIII Panzer Corps sector. The Germans claimed

-Russian losses of 560 planes, opposite Fourth Panzer Army.Adding the two missing days, assuming the same attrition ratesas before, and after 12-13 July, e.g., 250, one would arriveat 810 planes, or 405 opposite XLVIII Panzer Corps.

Bibliography

V A selective bibliography of published works, studiesand documents consulted for Operation CITADEL follows. Thesources are listed in sequence of their importance andusefulness.

S,.Soviet Sources

I

The official Soviet Histories of the Great PatrioticWar and World War II in official German translation are:

Geschichte des Grossen Vaterlandischen Krieges derSowjetunion, 1941 - 1945 [Berlin: Deutscher Militarverlag,1968] , 6 vols. Russian title: Istoriya VelikoiOtechestvennoi Voiny Sovetskogo Soyuza, 1941-1945. [Berlin:Militarverlag der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik, n.d.], 12

.o1vols. Russian title: Istoriya Vtoroy Mirovoi Voiny,1939-1945.

Parotkin, Ivan, ed., The Battle of Kursk [Moscow:Progress Publishers, 1974].

Zhukov, Georgii K., The Memoirs of Marshall Zhukov[New York: Delacorte Press, 1971].

I

German Sources

4 Schramm, Percy E., Kriegstagebuch des Oberkommandosder Wehrmacht [Munchen : Bernard and Graefe verlag, 1982] ,Original Edition vol. III , Study Edition vol. VI. Thecontemporary war diary of the German Armed Forces HighCommand.

Ernst Klink, Das Gesetz des Handelns, Die Operation"Zitadelle" 1943 [Stuttgart: Deutsche Verlags - Anstalt

IV-1034

0IL

1966]. The official German version of the battle.

English Sources

Smith, Myron J., Jr., The Soviet Army, 1939 - 1980: AGuide to Sources in English, with historical introduction byJohn Erickson [Oxford: Clio Press, Ltd., 1982].

Seaton, Albert, The Russo-German War, 1941-1945 [New

York: Prager Publishers, 1970].

Erickson, John, The Road to Berlin [Boulder, Col.:Westview Press, Inc., 1983].

Carell , Paul, Scorched Earth [Boston: Little , Brownand Co., 1966].

Svon Mellenthin, F.W., Panzer Battles [London: Future

Publications, Ltd., 1955].

Ziemke, Earl F., Stalingrad to Berlin, The GermanDefeat in the East [Washington, D.C.: GPO, 19681.

- Glantz, David M., "The Great Patriotic War and the"Maturation of Operational Art, 1941-1945." Manuscript, 16

_ April 1985.

von Hardesty, Red Phoenix, The Rise of Soviet AirPower, 1941-1945 [Washington, D.C.: Smithsonian Institution,

S19821.

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