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ITRS More than Moore
Workshop
Highlights from iNEMI's
Roadmap Activities
Grace O’Malley
iNEMI
Manager of European Operations
April 25, 2012
Agenda
• Introduction
• iNEMI Roadmap Process
• Highlights from the iNEMI Roadmap work
– Medical PEG - Healthcare
– Automotive PEG
– Energy Storage and Conversion TWG - Energy
– Solid State Illumination TWG - Lighting
• MtM –Challenges and Opportunities
2
About iNEMI
4
About iNEMI
4
International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an
industry-led consortium of over 99 global manufacturers, suppliers,
industry associations, government agencies and universities. Working
on advancing manufacturing technology since 1994.
Visit us at www.inemi.org.
5 Key Deliverables:
• Technology Roadmaps
• Collaborative Deployment
Projects
• Research Priorities Documents
• Proactive Forums
• Position Papers
4 Major Focus Areas:
• Miniaturization
• Environment
• Energy
• Medical Electronics
Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics
Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.
iNEMI Scope
5
Software Solutions
Marketing Design Manufacturing Order Fulfillment
Supply Chain Management Information Technology
Logistics Communications
Business Practices
Build to Order
Materials
Components
Customer
Equipment
Materials Transformation
Collaborative Design
Lifecycle Solutions Software
Solutions
Identify and close technology gaps, which includes the development and integration of the electronics industry supply infrastructure.
6
Product
Needs
Technology
Evolution
GAP
Analysis/
Technical
Plan
Research
Projects
Implementation
iNEMI Methodology
Competitive
Solutions
Roadmap Project
Completion
Industry Solution
Needed
Academia
Government
iNEMI
Members
No Work
Required or
Outsourced
Available
to Market
Place
Global
Participation
Disruptive
Technology
Roadmap
iNEMI
Roadmap
Statistics for the 2011 iNEMI Roadmap
• Roadmaps the needs for 2011-2021
• > 575 participants
• > 310 companies/organizations
• 18 countries from 4 continents
• 21 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
• 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
• > 1800 pages of information
8
Impact Roadmap used by industry to identify future market & technology needs.
Used by government & research organizations to identify and fund new research initiatives to address industries needs.
9
2011 Roadmap Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic PCB Board
Assembly Customer
RF Components &
Subsystems
Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics
Energy Storage &
Conversion Systems
Modeling, Simulation,
and Design
Packaging &
Component
Substrates Semiconductor
Technology
Final
Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)
Passive Components
Information
Management
Test, Inspection &
Measurement
Environmentally
Conscious
Electronics
Ceramic
Substrates
Thermal
Management
Connectors
MEMS/
Sensors
Red=Business Green=Engineering Light Blue=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem
Solid State Illumination
Photovoltaics
10 10
Roadmap Development
Product Emulator Groups Technology WG
Semiconductor Technology
Design Technologies
Manufacturing Technologies
Comp./Subsyst. Technologies
Modeling, Thermal, etc.
Board Assy, Test, etc.
Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.
2013 Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution
Business Processes
Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.
Optoelectronics and
Optical Storage
Organic Printed
Circuit Boards
Magnetic and
Optical Storage
Supply Chain
Management
Semiconductors
iNEMI
Information
Management
TWG
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI / IPC / EIPC
/ TPCA
Organic PWB
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS /
MIG/PSMA
Packaging
TWG
iNEMI
Board
Assembly
TWG
Interconnect
Substrates—Ceramic
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
Fourteen Contributing Organizations
11
iNEMI / MIG
/ ITRS
MEMS
TWG
iNEMI
Passives
TWG
ITRS / iNEMI Roadmap
Comparison
•12
The iNEMI Technology Roadmap is focused
on the business & technology areas (27)
associated with the electronics’ industries
global supply chain. It is a “Market Pull”
roadmap that defines desired product
attributes & asks what technologies are
needed to support them.
iNEMI’s large OEM membership is a benefit
and an advantage in needs identification.
The iNEMI Roadmap collaborates with 14
other organizations including the IPC and
ITRS in developing it’s chapters.
The roadmap is the starting point of the
iNEMI process for identifying technology or
business gaps. The iNEMI gap identification
process is distinctive and sets the iNEMI
roadmap apart from others.
The ITRS is focused on semiconductor
technology and is a “Technology Push”
roadmap that looks at the progress of
technology and asks what products
subsequently can be developed.
The ITRS roadmap utilizes Moore's Law and
heuristic equations as its foundation.
The ITRS collaborates with the iNEMI
Roadmap in several areas to drive product
attribute needs down to the semiconductor
technology level.
The Packaging and MEMS chapters of both
roadmaps are developed by a common set
of leaders and subsets of participants.
•13
Design and System Drivers
ITRS-iNEMI Domain Space
•Chip level •System level
•Tech
•requirements
•Market
•requirements
•iNEMI
•(emulators)
•ITRS
•(Drivers)
•*Source: ITRS Design/System Drivers TWG Chairman, Dr. Juan-Antonio Carballo
•14
Moore’s Law & More
More than Moore: DiversificationM
ore
Mo
ore
: M
inia
turi
zati
on
Mo
re M
oo
re:
Min
iatu
rizati
on
Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value System
sBaselin
e C
MO
S:
CP
U, M
em
ory
, L
og
icBiochips
Sensors
Actuators
HV
PowerAnalog/RF Passives
130nm
90nm
65nm
45nm
32nm
22nm...V
130nm
90nm
65nm
45nm
32nm
22nm...V
Information
Processing
Digital content
System-on-chip
(SoC)
Interacting with people
and environment
Non-digital content
System-in-package
(SiP)
Beyond CMOS
•Traditional
•ORTC Models •[
Ge
om
etr
ica
l &
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
sc
alin
g]
•Sc
alin
g (M
ore
Mo
ore
) •Functional Diversification (More than Moore)
•HVPower •Passives
•Sc
alin
g (M
ore
Mo
ore
)
Medical Electronics PEG Status
Fred Sporon-Fiedler, Micro Systems Eng.
Overview
• Medical Electronics Market and Trends
• 2013 Medical PEG Chapter Highlights
• Summary
– Key challenges and opportunities
17
Digital Health
• Patient care enhancement
- New and Unique Medical Products
- Monitor Systems
- Sensor Technology
- Improved Diagnostics
• Wireless technology for data
transfer
- Instant and remote monitoring
- Power transfer by RF
- Off-load computing and data storage
to remote host system, outside the
device.
In the past 12 years, growth, innovation and
miniaturization have lead to major advances in medical
electronics manufacturing and the therapies they deliver.
18
Medical Market and Trends
• Globally, the number of persons 60 and older was 600
million in 2000. It is expected to double to 1.2 billion by
2025 (W.H.O.)
• There are over 40 million persons in the U.S. over 65 years
of age (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Currently, the U.S. spends 1.75 Trillion dollars (over 16% of
its gross domestic product) on health care
• It is estimated that 2012 annual spending on medical
devices / electronics is approaching 100 Billion dollars
MEDICAL MARKET
2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2011
$91Bn6% of
Electronics Industry
4.4% CAAGR2011-2017
3.9% CAAGR
2017-2023
$118Bn
$148Bn
$Bn
$100
$200
$150
$50
0
N212 .bes-INEMI med
0Americas Japan Europe Asia/
ROW
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% Production 2010
Source: Prismark 2012 iNEMI Update
Production concentrated in America & Europe – but will change
20
MEDICAL MARKET
• Market size: 100 B$ Electronics Revenue
• 2010 Non-IT Medical Units
MEDICAL MARKET- High Potential
Bubble Chart Ref: IBM Institute for Business Value,” The
future of connected health devices”
3 BILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS FOR
CONNECTED HEALTH DEVICES
22 22
General Business Indicators are good
- High Growth of Tele-Medicine anticipated using multi functional
portable devices.
- Continued migration from prescriptive to preventive medicine
will drive increase in portable/wearable medical monitoring
devices.
- Emerging markets expected to have double digit growth.
- Focus on lower cost diagnostic equipment for developing
nations and rural areas.
- Regional assembly, design and distribution expected to
continue increase in SEA and China.
- U.S. market impacted by health care reform and conservative
regulatory stance by FDA.
- Long time to market; Hard to get suppliers engaged
- Price pressures throughout health care value chain
23
3 Categories in Medical Electronics Sector
1) Implanted products (those devices implanted in a human body) • Strict regulatory procedures
• Driven by battery life (low power loss) – this limits the use of certain components such as DRAM due to high energy consumption
• Validation and traceability
• Long term reliability paramount
• Long development cycles, primary assembly and design by OEMs
2) Portable products (those devices that are easily transported) • Cost parity with consumer / portables
• Dynamic market, needs fast response … 9 to 24 month product cycle time
• Mixed regulatory environment
• Mostly outsourced assembly and design
• Diagnostic Ultrasound in PDA size .. and smaller .. form factors
3) Diagnostic imaging devices and large scale equipment, e.g., MRI, CT • Larger scale (often similar to servers or telecom equipment)
• Often requires thermal management and heat sinking
• Utilizes commercial off-the-shelf components, when available
• Development cycle is shorter than implantables
• Application and design well suited to EMS environment
• Often does not require clean room or sterile assembly floor
24
Heart Failure Therapy: 5 year mortality rates as high as 50%,
Affects > 14M people (US, Europe & Japan)
Active technology developments on Miniaturization of therapy:
~12 cc to < 1 cc device
Technical Issues include:
Longer lifetime
Battery
Reliability
Patient safety
Implantable Example
Pacemakers – Currently the largest medical device market
US Annual:
– 750Kpatients/yr diagnosed, 500K implants annually
25
Market Drivers in Implantable Medical • Implantable therapy device modalities increasing
– New therapies in Cardiac Devices (4 chamber pacing/shocks) – Implantable monitoring – Neurostimulation therapies – Ophthalmic devices, deep brain stimulation etc…
• The average YoY growth rate for implantable products has been between 15-18% for the last 10 years , but slowing in U.S. due to regulatory shifts.
• Remote monitoring is becoming defacto standard. Increased demand for “external wireless telemetry”
Example: >250,000 patients are currently enrolled
in home / remote monitoring system.
These systems are communication devices that
interact with the implanted device and a host network system.
Source: S. Kelly,
MIT
Portable Devices
26
27
Current Market Drivers in Consumer Medical
• Broad range of devices being brought to market
Connected monitoring of biometric data
Game changer in health care cost model?
Examples:
28
Trends and Market Drivers in Medical Imaging
– Increased health awareness and preventive care leading to an
increased demand for diagnostic and imaging systems.
– Healthcare demands of 78M “US baby boomers” … clinician
shortage, global aging, technology expectation
– Development of higher power systems capable of higher patient
throughput, higher resolution, and a greater ability to discriminating
individual tissue types, et al.
– Medical imaging using video (for specific applications).
29
• Example of differences from last Roadmap - 3D SiP and Integrated Passives
Medical PEG Roadmap New challenges
Broader deployment of portable medical devices will
accelerate Miniaturization drive:
-Use of 3D SiP technology (w/wo TSV)
-Integration of discretes onto Si based integrated passive devices (for high volume products or stable
topologies in low volume products)
Increased use of MEMS
Source: ASE Group
30
Medical PEG New Challenges
Updates from Last Roadmap
- Addition of corrosive environment mitigations in reliability
section.
- Emphasis on Miniaturization via 3D SiP and IPD’s.
- Continued emphasis on huge potential and impact of Portable
equipment and wearable electronics and required data
handling. Wireless medical device systems now becoming
standard. Personal data device transmits implanted or worn device output to medical monitoring facility and physician.
31
MtM Opportunities within Medical
• Miniaturization, Energy efficiency …. - Nano-scale materials, coatings and conductors
- Use of MEMS
- Localized measurement – ex lab on a chip
- Gaseous and biological sensors – military and homeland security applications, as well as medical.
- Alternative Power and Rechargeable Batteries
- Self or bio powered systems
- New High Density Batteries MnO2, may lead to 10+ year life.
- Battery for new applications e.g. artificial retina (Sandia)
- Wearable, patient monitoring systems
- RF telemetry, offloading diagnostics from primary device
• All these advancements require solving complex problems involving materials management, energy constraints, data security, reliability and above all patient safety.
Automotive PEG Status
Jim Spall
Delphi With Contributions from
Bosch and Inventec
33
Automotive Product Emulator
• Situation Analysis
– Business Issues (Global)
• Auto industry experts predict a tight race this year between GM,
Volkswagen, Toyota, and the joint venture between Nissan and Renault.
– GM retakes title of top-selling global automaker
– 9.03 million in sales in 2011- up 7.6% from 2010
– Volkswagen AG came in second
– 8.16 million in sales in 2011- up 14% from 2010
• Factors that could effect the automotive recovery
– Debt crisis in Europe driving a global recession
– Gas prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon
34
Automotive Product Emulator
• Situation Analysis
• Business Issues (North America)
– Americans felt more confident about the economy and there was pent-up demand
• Average age of vehicles was 10.8 years (record)
– 12.7 million vehicles sold in 2011
– 11.5 million vehicles sold in 2010
– GM sales rise 13 percent in 2011
• 2.5 million vehicles in the U.S.
– Ford sales rise 11 percent in 2011
• 2.1 million vehicles in the U.S.
– Chrysler sales rise 26 percent in 2011
• 1.37 million vehicles in the U.S.
35
Automotive Market
• Situation Analysis (Automotive Electronics)
2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
4.7% CAAGR
2011-2017
4.2% CAAGR
2017-2023
$211Bn
$270Bn
$Bn
$200
$400
$300
$100
0
2011
$160Bn
10% of
Electronics Industry
N212.bes-INEMI auto
0Americas Japan Europe Asia/
ROW
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% Production 2010
PrismarkData
Growth of In-car Electronics
• The major trends driving the demand for increased
electronics penetration in automobiles include:
– Stricter fuel economy and emissions mandates
– Legislated requirements for advanced safety systems, such as
advanced airbags and on-board tire pressure monitoring
– Consumer demand for greater vehicle efficiencies driven by
escalating global crude oil prices
– Consumer demand for greater safety, comfort, and convenience
features
• According to iSuppli Corp., an estimated 62.3 million people will have
Internet access in their cars by 2016
– Consumer demand for luxury features
– Growth of hybrid and electric vehicles
36
Key Drivers
Cost, Reliability, Quality and Size
• Cost is still the main key driver for automotive
– Competitive cost will get you an opportunity to win a program
• Quality is a key metric that all automotive suppliers are measured on by
using Assembly Plant Returns (APR).
• Reliability is a given in the automotive sector
– Failure to deliver will result in no future business
• Size is a big benefit - some vehicles have 100 electronic controllers and space is limited
Chapter Highlights
• Business Issues
– More efficient
• Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy to 35.5 mpg by 2016
• Downsizing of engines and increased use of Gas Direct injection
• Increased use of turbo-charging
• Researchers project 14 million electrified vehicles annually by 2020
– 1.5 million full Electric Vehicles (EV)
– 1.5 million Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)
– 11 million Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)
» Toyota sold over 800,000 Prius Hybrids globally last year
» Toyota has started a whole Prius vehicle line
» Every major auto maker has HEV’s in the U.S.
– Volume will based on operating cost, carbon benefits, range
limitations, cost of fuel and government incentives for EV sales
• Nissan sold 9,674 Leaf’s last year
• GM sold 7,671 Volt’s last year – All needing repairs to better protect the
vehicles batteries from a crash test
Chapter Highlights
• Business Issues
– More functionality
– Automotive MEMS Revenue
• $2.2 billion in 2011, up 16 percent from 2010
• $1.9 Billion in 2010
• Five-year compounded growth rate of approximately 10 percent
starting from 2010
Automotive Product Emulator • Critical (Infrastructure) Issues –
– Identify Paradigm Shifts
• The shift to electrified vehicles
• The connected vehicle
– Need to limit the distraction of the driver
• The use of reconfigurable displays
– Provide Vision of Final Assembly Process
• Varied - dependent on the type of product (sealed underhood versus unsealed passenger compartment)
– Discuss System Test
• More in depth to eliminate problems in the field
• Better testing of software as the amount of code increases
– Discuss Environmental Issues
• All new products are being designed with Lead Free solder
Automotive Product Emulator
• Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research,
Development, Implementation
– Components related to the Electrified Vehicle
• Lower cost batteries ($250/kWh)
• Improved thermal interface materials
• Improved power devices, capacitors, inductors, transformers,
battery management ICs, gate drive ICs
– Infrastructure for Electrified Vehicles
• Limits to energy storage
• Long recharging times
• Updated electrical grid
Other 2011 vs. 2013 forecast differences
• Circuit board – need for heavy copper
• Large passives with press fit terminations
• Increased use of MEMS sensors
• The use of 0201 components in the future
• Higher resolution and larger displays being used (12.3”
displays for the instrument cluster)
• Sales of SnPb solder (80%) versus Lead free solder (20%)
for 2011
• Greater thermal demands due to the electrified vehicle
43
Opportunities
– Technical Issues
• Shift to Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Electric Vehicles (EV)
– Invention required to reach the battery cost target of $250/kWh
» Today’s cost $1,000 -$1,200/kWh
– Key components that are in need include:
» High performance PCBs,
» power devices,
» bulk capacitors,
» inductors and transformers,
» cooling structures,
» motor drive microprocessors,
» high current connectors,
» current sensors,
» gate driver ICs,
» battery management ICs,
» busbars, and enclosures.
44
Opportunities
– Technical Issues
• Increased use of MEMS in automotive
MEMS applications for automotive have come a long way since the introduction of a micro-machined MAP sensor in 1979. An average car today consists of over 40 different sensors, ~30% of which are micro-machined.
Application areas include
Integrated sensors for pressure (MAP, Fuel, Occupant Detection, Tire, Air Bags),
acceleration, non contact temperature, airflow, fuel flow, angular rate (Electronic
Stability Control, Roll Over) sensor.
Gas/Chemical sensors for in-cabin air quality, monitoring exhaust gas
composition and oil quality.
Actuators/valves for fuel injection
Optical/Infra-Red sensors for in-car LANs, HVAC control, Occupant Sensing,
Night-Vision and in-vehicle displays.
Polymer based sensors for humidity detection
Radar based sensors for Back-up Aid, Blind Spot Detection, and Adaptive Cruise
Control
Other Areas of Opportunities
• 12.3 inch reconfigurable displays for the
instrument panel
• LED lighting used internal and external lighting
• Connected Vehicle
Energy Storage and
Conversion Systems
TWG Chapter
Review
April 25, 2012
47
Background
• Introduced this chapter in 2009 Roadmap
– Covers batteries, both primary and secondary (rechargeable),
fuel cells and other emerging technologies.
– Broken into 3 different market areas
• Consumer
• Automotive
• Grid Storage
Emergence of Electric Energy Storage Technologies
Source: Electricity Storage Association 48
3 Main Applications for Rechargeable Batteries
Source: Takeshita, IIT, 2010
Consumer electronics Transportation Utility Grid Storage
Rechargeable batteries market expected to be $36 billion by 2016
Li- ion batteries growing by ~15% annually – driven by consumer applications
Adoption of EVs would significantly increase that
Consumer Applications Dominate Li+
• Consumer electronics accounts for the bulk of Li+ usage
• Promising growth in transportation and utility grids by 2020
Source: IIT, Takeshita 2007, 2010
Rapid Growth in Usage of Li+ Rechargeables
21.2%
6.1%
6.6%
7.4%
-2.3%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Nickel
Industrial
Lithium
Consumer
Lithium
Motive Lead
Acid
Stationary
Lead Acid
Ba
ttery
ch
em
istr
ies
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2007
Annual growth rate
18650 is Workhorse for Consumer Applications
Industry Drivers
• Safety – too many recalls in the last decade
• Capacity – break the 3 A.h. ceiling using new electrode materials
• Cycle time – presently 1.5 years ->3 years
• Cost – < $3.00 per 18650 and dropping at >10% p.a.
18650
Consumer Gaps
• 1. Lack of technical maturity for high energy density
capable electrodes, including silicon based anodes.
• 2. Degradation of lithium ion batteries (low cycle life) is still
an issue.
• 3. Failure rates are still higher than desired.
• 4. Rechargeable battery recycling infrastructure is
immature.
• 5. Sophisticated battery management systems are still
emerging
53
Transportation: many challenges to overcome
• EV/HEV market is currently limited to environmentally conscious buyers or when subsidized by governments
• System integration and safety are complex tasks in transportation
Comparison of present-day Li+ batteries vs. EV goals
Transportation • Current Situation
– Li ion technology works, but is expensive, and does not have needed All Electric Range (AER) at a reasonable cost to meet “range anxiety” concerns
• Nissan Leaf has a 24KWh battery pack and costs $32,800+ and $25,300 with tax credit, with 100 mile range.
• Tesla (with 42KWh capacity) provides range but is too expensive to be a mass market vehicle.
• However, China may buck the trend … BYD claims to have a 186 mile range Li ion battery EV, being put in use for fleet service.
– Charging infrastructure not yet developed, but process has begun (Better Place, Aerovironment).
– Grid readiness to accept large scale adoption with anytime charging of EVs and PHEVs not yet developed.
– All Electric Applications in high volume are emerging … e.g. E bikes in China. There are >100 million E-bikes on the road with lead acid batteries that are fully recyclable.
• Drivers for Growth
– Large scale adoption of EVs and PHEVs will be heavily dependent on cost reduction and range improvement of the battery packs, as well as the price of oil. If oil prices increase on a sustained basis, it will create a significantly larger demand for EVs and PHEVs.
– National security issues (dependence on foreign oil) may also drive faster development of an EV infrastructure.
Renewables & Peak Shifting Require Grid Storage
Source: Regenesys Ltd.
Applications of Grid Storage
• Peak shifting / load leveling
• Grid stabilization
• Renewable integration
• Enabling smart grid
Challenges
• Cost & complexity of system
integration
• Industry moves at glacial pace
• Power conversion for control of
energy
Other Applications
Military & Aerospace
• Use Standard Material Systems for Custom Applications
• Information Restricted by ITAR
• Key Players: Eagle-Picher, International Battery
Medical
• Mostly for Implantable CRM and Neurostimulation
• Customized; Manual Assembly
• Top Suppliers: Greatbach and Medtronic
Challenges and Opportunities
• Increased energy density of batteries that:
– Reduces volume for portable applications
– Increases capacity for automotive/utility applications
– Improves cost/performance
• Improved Lithium Polymer solutions (with polymer electrolyte):
– Improved safety
– Better heat dissipation
• Modeling to better understand battery performance degradation
over time:
– Standardized test methods
– Analytical tools
– Electrochemical measurements
58
Opportunities for IC and
Battery Management System Design
• Advanced battery management systems are needed for
scalable battery systems.
• Drivers and controllers for advanced battery management
systems that:
– Accurately monitor “State of Charge”.
– Manage power draw-down to avoid full depletion and extend
life.
– Are linked to the functioning of the battery pack at the cell
level to maximize efficiency.
Solid State Illumination
Background
61
• New chapter in 2009 to identify the most critical
technologies for commercial launch and market diffusion
of SSI products
• 2009-2011 saw great activity in the industry
– Many well funded research programs : USDOE and FP7
– Philips wins L-Prize for 60 watt replacement bulb
– New modular light engines on the market
– SSI performance continued to improve
– Development of standards
• 2013 Roadmap underway
– GaN on GaN and GaN on Si substrates emerging
– Chip on Board assembly (COB) emerging
62
LED Devices Continue to Improve
63
Haitz’s Law Drives Cost Performance
Analogous to Moore’s Law for LED’s
Costs decline while performance increases
64
LED Based Devices
• LED Devices continue to improve
– Remote phosphor technology developing
– Novel thermal management designs emerging
65
LED Based Devices
• New designs for light engine installation
• Edge-lit devices emerging
66
OLED Based Devices
Universal Display announces
technology and materials
license agreement with
Panasonic Idemitsu
Osram announces launch of their
OLED lighting production facility
Universal Display reports
technical performance of white
OLED that exceeds DoE
lifetime targets
Novaled develops long-life
power-efficient white PIN
OLEDs
Panasonic starts shipping
OLED lighting panels and
modules
Verbatim launches world’s first
commercially available color
tuneable OLED lighting panels
67
Comparison of LED and OLED
Light Source Light Engine Luminaire
68
LED and OLED Assembly Hierarchy
Level LED Comments OLED Comments
3 System level
assembly
Assembly of luminaire. Product is sold to customers.
System level assembly
Assembly of luminaire. Product is sold to customers.
2 Package on
board
SMT assembly processes: solder, wire bond, etc.
Assembly accomplished via mechanical leads, conductive adhesives, low temperature solder, wire bonding.
1 LED in
package
SMT assembly processes: solder, wire bond, etc.
OLED Device
Processing accomplished via integration of sheet fed/roll-to-roll processes and lamination
0 LED Device
Focuses on the fabrication of the LED wafer and dicing
Focuses on the deposition of organic light emitting materials
Summary of Critical Gaps and Needs
• A development need for LED and OLED materials to produce high-
efficiency light sources.
• Development of manufacturing processes that address the tooling, assembly equipment and assembly processes is required for producing
large volumes of low cost LED and OLED assemblies and luminaires.
• Development of thermal management technologies to dissipate heat
associated with high brightness light sources. Excess heat can lead to color shifts and lower lifetime performance.
• A need for the development of accelerated life tests appropriate for long
life-time designs. The ALT results need to be validated with real time
performance data
• Development of standards to insure that public policy conforms to
technical capability.
• The development of tests and standards to validate luminaire performance claims vs. actual luminaire performance needs to be
maintained as the volume and type of product continues to increase
rapidly.
69
70
Assembly • Design tools required for new assembly processes & for
directing product LCA optimized choices
• Package designs must address high thermal loads for
ultra-bright LEDs
• SMT assembly not readily amenable with OLED structures
Inspection &
Measurement
• Requires new technologies and tools with required
accuracy and must be cost effective
Materials • More efficient inorganic materials
• Functional inks to enable low cost OLEDs
• Improved phosphor materials
• Improved light extraction
Standards • WEEE, RHoS, Energy Star, EuP*, etc., must be watched for
impact on industry direction and technical direction and
alignment must be coordinated (iNEMI existing Focus and
Strength)
Supply Chain • Need alignment of supply chains for cost reduction to
drive consumer acceptance and ramp
• Supply chains for distribution from non-traditional
luminaire suppliers
Future Challenges for the SSI Industry
Potential Opportunities Identified:
• Drive Long Term Reliability for Power Supplies and Control
Electronics
– Data bases; specifications, testing methodologies, and standards,
LCA for components
• Creation of cost effective high volume test capabilities and
specifications for final test on integrated SSL products
– Electrical, optical, thermal
• Supply chain readiness and radical HVM cost improvements
– PS, Driver Electronics, interconnects, cables, connectors
• Methodology and structure to drive learning and specs to
minimize warpage on substrates and thus drive down defect
density –
– LED (Al2O3, SiC), OLED (polymer films)
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Summary
• Medical
• Automotive
• Energy
• Lighting
• Common Themes:
– Potential large volumes, Reliability, Security
– Medical and Automotive in transition
– Energy and Lighting are growing
• FOM and LEP are unclear
– New communities developing - IP still an issue
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Summary
• Miniaturization through integration
– More functionality in smaller volume
• Sensors
– MEMS
– Wireless connectivity
• Energy Efficiency
• Better Battery technologies
• Battery Management Systems
• Lighting control systems
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www.inemi.org Email contacts:
Bill Bader
Bob Pfahl
Grace O’Malley - Europe
Haley Fu - Asia